Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton             10  0  0  484   29  2.271    1  3.162    1  3.716    1  3.640    1 0.6913    1 0.7138    1   1250  0.954  4.021  3.258
Yale                  16  1  0  664   31  1.708    2  2.852    2  2.854    2  3.081    2 0.6564    2 0.6719    2   1200  0.457  2.962  3.200
Harvard                9  2  0  419   53  1.749    3  2.499    3  1.826    3  2.682    3 0.6078    5 0.5957    3   1150  0.818  2.914  2.449
Dartmouth              7  1  0  239   72  0.316    4  2.210    4  1.241    5  0.985    4 0.5894    7 0.5685    4   1100  1.081  1.514  0.457
Cornell                7  2  0  355  130  0.392    5  2.146    5  1.054    6  0.836    5 0.5606    6 0.5837    5   1050  1.205  1.516  0.157
Lehigh                 8  3  2  356   89  0.530    6  1.883    7  0.375    4  1.004    6 0.5393    8 0.5534    6   1000  0.427  0.859  1.149
Wesleyan               5  7  1  153  420  0.432    7  1.835    6  0.543    8 -0.053    7 0.5174   10 0.4827   10    780  1.200  0.619 -0.726
Pennsylvania           7  6  0  198  165  0.189    8  1.647    8  0.131    7  0.272    9 0.4895   12 0.4655    7    941  0.143 -0.102  0.647
Lafayette              3  4  2   78   88 -0.053    9  1.443    9 -0.164   10 -0.267   14 0.4727   13 0.4633   12    722  0.148 -0.638  0.104
Williams               4  5  1  258  203  0.193   10  1.280   11 -0.485    9 -0.175   13 0.4806    9 0.4830    9    846  0.813  0.052 -0.402
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
M.I.T.                 3  3  0   86  141 -0.380   11  1.273   10 -0.281   14 -0.880   11 0.4836   14 0.4358   13    652  0.877 -0.584 -1.176
Trinity (Connecticut)  5  3  1  130   87 -0.520   12  1.078   12 -0.708   11 -0.459   12 0.4831   18 0.3962    8    895 -0.318 -1.132  0.214
Amherst                3  5  2  173  198 -0.413   13  0.966   13 -0.903   13 -0.835   15 0.4503   17 0.4024   14    606  0.607 -0.815 -0.855
Columbia               2  7  2   54  298 -0.326   14  0.810   14 -1.116   16 -1.322   16 0.4289   16 0.4113   15    530  0.498 -1.403 -1.240
Penn State             2  2  0   32  138 -2.371   15  0.769   15 -1.232   19 -2.575   17 0.4242   15 0.4308   11    758  0.724 -2.440 -2.709
Dickinson              4  1  1   75   42 -2.205   16  0.721   16 -1.390   18 -1.855    8 0.4954    3 0.6183   16    497  0.603 -1.839 -1.870
Franklin & Marshall    5  1  1  188   26 -2.265   17  0.686   17 -1.642   15 -1.283   10 0.4890    4 0.6166   19    363  0.599 -1.271 -1.295
Rutgers                1  4  0   22   92 -0.600   18  0.676   18 -1.644   17 -1.779   20 0.3369   21 0.2624   17    456  0.426 -1.925 -1.633
Stevens                1 10  0   39  222 -0.264   19  0.548   19 -1.972   12 -0.820   18 0.4083   19 0.3623   20    321  0.274 -1.093 -0.547
Bucknell               1  4  1   24  126 -2.157   20  0.405   20 -2.286   20 -2.739   19 0.3923   11 0.4795   18    370  0.216 -3.058 -2.420
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Swarthmore             1  6  0   46  159 -2.580   21  0.000   21 -3.318   21 -3.366   21 0.2923   20 0.3075   21    263  0.705 -3.250 -3.482
UNRANKED               3 30  2   90 1354 -1.185      -1.000      -1.000      -2.366      0.3820      0.3809           0  0.950 -1.990 -2.743


Independent: strength=-0.471 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton             10  0  0  484   29  2.271    1  3.162    1  3.716    1  3.640    1 0.6913    1 0.7138    1   1250  0.954  4.021  3.258
Yale                  16  1  0  664   31  1.708    2  2.852    2  2.854    2  3.081    2 0.6564    2 0.6719    2   1200  0.457  2.962  3.200
Harvard                9  2  0  419   53  1.749    3  2.499    3  1.826    3  2.682    3 0.6078    5 0.5957    3   1150  0.818  2.914  2.449
Dartmouth              7  1  0  239   72  0.316    4  2.210    4  1.241    5  0.985    4 0.5894    7 0.5685    4   1100  1.081  1.514  0.457
Cornell                7  2  0  355  130  0.392    5  2.146    5  1.054    6  0.836    5 0.5606    6 0.5837    5   1050  1.205  1.516  0.157
Lehigh                 8  3  2  356   89  0.530    6  1.883    7  0.375    4  1.004    6 0.5393    8 0.5534    6   1000  0.427  0.859  1.149
Wesleyan               5  7  1  153  420  0.432    7  1.835    6  0.543    8 -0.053    7 0.5174   10 0.4827   10    780  1.200  0.619 -0.726
Pennsylvania           7  6  0  198  165  0.189    8  1.647    8  0.131    7  0.272    9 0.4895   12 0.4655    7    941  0.143 -0.102  0.647
Lafayette              3  4  2   78   88 -0.053    9  1.443    9 -0.164   10 -0.267   14 0.4727   13 0.4633   12    722  0.148 -0.638  0.104
Williams               4  5  1  258  203  0.193   10  1.280   11 -0.485    9 -0.175   13 0.4806    9 0.4830    9    846  0.813  0.052 -0.402
M.I.T.                 3  3  0   86  141 -0.380   11  1.273   10 -0.281   14 -0.880   11 0.4836   14 0.4358   13    652  0.877 -0.584 -1.176
Trinity (Connecticut)  5  3  1  130   87 -0.520   12  1.078   12 -0.708   11 -0.459   12 0.4831   18 0.3962    8    895 -0.318 -1.132  0.214
Amherst                3  5  2  173  198 -0.413   13  0.966   13 -0.903   13 -0.835   15 0.4503   17 0.4024   14    606  0.607 -0.815 -0.855
Columbia               2  7  2   54  298 -0.326   14  0.810   14 -1.116   16 -1.322   16 0.4289   16 0.4113   15    530  0.498 -1.403 -1.240
Penn State             2  2  0   32  138 -2.371   15  0.769   15 -1.232   19 -2.575   17 0.4242   15 0.4308   11    758  0.724 -2.440 -2.709
Dickinson              4  1  1   75   42 -2.205   16  0.721   16 -1.390   18 -1.855    8 0.4954    3 0.6183   16    497  0.603 -1.839 -1.870
Franklin & Marshall    5  1  1  188   26 -2.265   17  0.686   17 -1.642   15 -1.283   10 0.4890    4 0.6166   19    363  0.599 -1.271 -1.295
Rutgers                1  4  0   22   92 -0.600   18  0.676   18 -1.644   17 -1.779   20 0.3369   21 0.2624   17    456  0.426 -1.925 -1.633
Stevens                1 10  0   39  222 -0.264   19  0.548   19 -1.972   12 -0.820   18 0.4083   19 0.3623   20    321  0.274 -1.093 -0.547
Bucknell               1  4  1   24  126 -2.157   20  0.405   20 -2.286   20 -2.739   19 0.3923   11 0.4795   18    370  0.216 -3.058 -2.420
Swarthmore             1  6  0   46  159 -2.580   21  0.000   21 -3.318   21 -3.366   21 0.2923   20 0.3075   21    263  0.705 -3.250 -3.482

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 104  77  14 0.569    1 -0.471

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.292 points in main ratings
     0.026 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:06 2007

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