Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Harvard               11  0  0  555   12  1.787    1  2.256    1  2.977    1  3.494    1 0.6575    2 0.6681    1   1250  0.836  3.800  3.189
Yale                  13  1  0  486   18  1.537    2  2.038    2  2.375    2  2.839    2 0.6522    1 0.6871    2   1200  0.259  2.607  3.071
Williams               8  2  0  226   82  0.574    3  1.639    3  1.300    4  0.836    5 0.5733    6 0.5786    3   1136  0.181  0.543  1.129
Pennsylvania          11  3  0  259  134  0.246    4  1.567    4  1.129    5  0.566    4 0.5916    4 0.6504    5   1050  0.467  0.510  0.622
Princeton             11  1  1  478   58  0.551    5  1.492    5  0.624    3  1.702    3 0.6175    3 0.6628    4   1114  0.946  2.127  1.277
Wesleyan               5  6  0   76  254  0.357    6  1.296    6  0.492   10 -0.178    6 0.5290    8 0.5369   13    661  0.232 -0.431  0.076
Lehigh                 6  4  0  248  119  0.225    7  1.087    7  0.021    6  0.299    7 0.5115    7 0.5379   10    807  0.832  0.600 -0.002
Franklin & Marshall    8  2  0  212   96 -1.088    8  1.077    8 -0.010   12 -0.763    8 0.5069    5 0.5919    9    837  1.014 -0.261 -1.265
Amherst                6  5  1  184  185  0.225    9  1.036    9 -0.095    8  0.105    9 0.4956   11 0.4422   12    689  0.213 -0.163  0.373
Cornell                8  4  0  342  134 -0.088   10  0.973   10 -0.214    7  0.204   10 0.4861    9 0.4748    8    901  0.785  0.455 -0.047
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Virginia               5  2  0  226  207 -1.684   11  0.902   11 -0.383   17 -1.952   11 0.4768   10 0.4524    6    976  1.493 -0.841 -3.063
Dartmouth              4  4  0  133  122  0.507   12  0.875   12 -0.452    9 -0.016   12 0.4651   12 0.4344    7    942 -0.252 -0.601  0.568
Trinity (Connecticut)  2  5  1   66  134 -0.082   13  0.752   13 -0.740   13 -0.842   14 0.4091   17 0.3416   14    600  0.475 -0.891 -0.793
Rutgers                5  5  1  222  147 -0.189   14  0.641   14 -0.966   11 -0.506   13 0.4443   13 0.4259   11    787  0.382 -0.635 -0.376
Bucknell               1  3  1   28   60 -1.210   15  0.390   15 -1.519   14 -1.458   17 0.3848   14 0.4023   17    462  0.039 -1.855 -1.061
Lafayette              2  5  1  100  166 -1.202   16  0.308   16 -1.694   15 -1.506   16 0.3865   16 0.3445   15    550  0.848 -1.188 -1.824
Columbia               1  6  1   46  199 -0.715   17  0.232   17 -1.843   16 -1.787   15 0.3927   15 0.3762   16    488  0.269 -2.011 -1.564
Dickinson              3  6  0   51  126 -1.967   18  0.000   18 -2.279   18 -2.620   18 0.2992   18 0.2284   18    400  0.406 -2.729 -2.511
UNRANKED               4 50  1  182 1867 -1.226      -1.000      -1.000      -2.320      0.3584      0.3343           0  0.892 -1.955 -2.685


Independent: strength=-0.245 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Harvard               11  0  0  555   12  1.787    1  2.256    1  2.977    1  3.494    1 0.6575    2 0.6681    1   1250  0.836  3.800  3.189
Yale                  13  1  0  486   18  1.537    2  2.038    2  2.375    2  2.839    2 0.6522    1 0.6871    2   1200  0.259  2.607  3.071
Williams               8  2  0  226   82  0.574    3  1.639    3  1.300    4  0.836    5 0.5733    6 0.5786    3   1136  0.181  0.543  1.129
Pennsylvania          11  3  0  259  134  0.246    4  1.567    4  1.129    5  0.566    4 0.5916    4 0.6504    5   1050  0.467  0.510  0.622
Princeton             11  1  1  478   58  0.551    5  1.492    5  0.624    3  1.702    3 0.6175    3 0.6628    4   1114  0.946  2.127  1.277
Wesleyan               5  6  0   76  254  0.357    6  1.296    6  0.492   10 -0.178    6 0.5290    8 0.5369   13    661  0.232 -0.431  0.076
Lehigh                 6  4  0  248  119  0.225    7  1.087    7  0.021    6  0.299    7 0.5115    7 0.5379   10    807  0.832  0.600 -0.002
Franklin & Marshall    8  2  0  212   96 -1.088    8  1.077    8 -0.010   12 -0.763    8 0.5069    5 0.5919    9    837  1.014 -0.261 -1.265
Amherst                6  5  1  184  185  0.225    9  1.036    9 -0.095    8  0.105    9 0.4956   11 0.4422   12    689  0.213 -0.163  0.373
Cornell                8  4  0  342  134 -0.088   10  0.973   10 -0.214    7  0.204   10 0.4861    9 0.4748    8    901  0.785  0.455 -0.047
Virginia               5  2  0  226  207 -1.684   11  0.902   11 -0.383   17 -1.952   11 0.4768   10 0.4524    6    976  1.493 -0.841 -3.063
Dartmouth              4  4  0  133  122  0.507   12  0.875   12 -0.452    9 -0.016   12 0.4651   12 0.4344    7    942 -0.252 -0.601  0.568
Trinity (Connecticut)  2  5  1   66  134 -0.082   13  0.752   13 -0.740   13 -0.842   14 0.4091   17 0.3416   14    600  0.475 -0.891 -0.793
Rutgers                5  5  1  222  147 -0.189   14  0.641   14 -0.966   11 -0.506   13 0.4443   13 0.4259   11    787  0.382 -0.635 -0.376
Bucknell               1  3  1   28   60 -1.210   15  0.390   15 -1.519   14 -1.458   17 0.3848   14 0.4023   17    462  0.039 -1.855 -1.061
Lafayette              2  5  1  100  166 -1.202   16  0.308   16 -1.694   15 -1.506   16 0.3865   16 0.3445   15    550  0.848 -1.188 -1.824
Columbia               1  6  1   46  199 -0.715   17  0.232   17 -1.843   16 -1.787   15 0.3927   15 0.3762   16    488  0.269 -2.011 -1.564
Dickinson              3  6  0   51  126 -1.967   18  0.000   18 -2.279   18 -2.620   18 0.2992   18 0.2284   18    400  0.406 -2.729 -2.511

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 110  64   7 0.627    1 -0.245

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.266 points in main ratings
     0.024 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:05 2007

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