Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  13  0  0  488    0  1.799    1  2.964    1  3.296    1  3.357    1 0.7019    1 0.7407    1   1250 -0.007  2.932  3.782
Harvard               13  1  0  588   26  1.483    2  2.608    2  2.229    2  2.840    3 0.6337    3 0.6598    2   1200  0.150  2.528  3.151
Princeton             12  1  0  391   19  1.106    3  2.546    3  2.078    3  2.193    2 0.6520    2 0.6813    3   1150 -0.271  1.601  2.784
Pennsylvania          11  2  0  267  109  0.265    4  2.212    4  1.379    6  0.817    4 0.6040    4 0.6086    4   1100  0.992  1.298  0.336
Williams               8  2  1  306   84  0.905    5  2.158    5  1.266    4  1.337    5 0.5654    5 0.5836    5   1050  0.364  1.196  1.479
Amherst                8  4  3  318  154  0.455    6  1.841    6  0.661    7  0.690   10 0.5184   12 0.4989    9    853  0.514  0.681  0.700
Dartmouth              2  2  1   60   62  0.587    7  1.723    7  0.463    8  0.494   12 0.5133    9 0.5445   13    628  0.792  0.757  0.231
Lehigh                 7  6  0  174  198  0.317    8  1.717    8  0.448    9  0.280    6 0.5473    7 0.5621   12    725  0.922  0.683 -0.122
Trinity (Connecticut)  6  4  0  125  140 -0.067    9  1.523    9  0.080   12 -0.000    7 0.5396   10 0.5276   10    794  0.260 -0.227  0.226
Penn State             5  2  0  172   46 -0.398   10  1.480   11 -0.007   11  0.134   11 0.5166    8 0.5523    8    897  0.740  0.343 -0.075
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Cornell                7  3  0  298   34  0.366   11  1.391   12 -0.184    5  1.236    9 0.5223   13 0.4928    7    951  0.203  0.964  1.507
Bucknell               6  2  1  176  106 -0.520   12  1.375   10 -0.005   13 -0.363    8 0.5234    6 0.5689    6    999  0.892  0.007 -0.732
Springfield            5  8  1  192  250  0.427   13  1.152   13 -0.382   10  0.180   16 0.4718   16 0.4588   15    561  0.946  0.610 -0.250
Rutgers                8  6  0  265  138 -0.644   14  0.900   17 -0.792   15 -0.547   15 0.4749   15 0.4896   11    730  0.618 -0.459 -0.635
Army                   4  1  1   80   73 -1.272   15  0.847   15 -0.767   19 -1.238   14 0.4849   17 0.4247   14    590  1.050 -0.690 -1.786
Navy                   5  2  0  121   62 -1.306   16  0.838   14 -0.765   18 -0.853   18 0.4505   22 0.3648   16    494  1.042 -0.314 -1.392
Wesleyan               2  7  0   66  373  0.392   17  0.820   16 -0.791   17 -0.764   13 0.4971   11 0.5065   22    189  0.649 -0.646 -0.883
Massachusetts          2  5  0   56  142 -0.289   18  0.727   18 -0.994   23 -1.596   24 0.3687   25 0.2950   20    293  0.364 -1.737 -1.455
M.I.T.                 2  6  0   54  122 -0.237   19  0.688   19 -1.081   14 -0.540   21 0.4154   19 0.3947   23    161  0.429 -0.624 -0.455
Franklin & Marshall    2  4  0   47  122 -0.845   20  0.670   20 -1.120   21 -1.330   17 0.4639   14 0.4925   21    264  0.502 -1.350 -1.310
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Stevens                4  7  0  140  255 -0.915   21  0.652   21 -1.161   22 -1.579   23 0.3733   23 0.3098   18    413  0.871 -1.232 -1.925
Lafayette              2  9  1   86  161 -0.098   22  0.633   22 -1.191   16 -0.629   19 0.4241   18 0.4102   24    100 -0.020 -1.063 -0.195
Brown                  4  6  0  110  176 -0.732   23  0.616   23 -1.224   20 -1.284   22 0.4037   20 0.3915   17    459  0.592 -1.220 -1.347
Dickinson              2  2  1   78   84 -1.705   24  0.613   24 -1.230   24 -1.722   20 0.4216   21 0.3763   19    349  0.538 -1.709 -1.735
Columbia               1  5  0   32  220 -1.620   25  0.229   25 -2.239   26 -3.699   26 0.3092   26 0.2556   25     50  0.745 -3.485 -3.914
Haverford              0  6  0    8  245 -1.617   26  0.000   26 -2.873   25 -3.499   25 0.3186   24 0.2985   26      0  0.577 -3.449 -3.549
UNRANKED              13 51  2  502 1799 -0.762      -1.000      -1.000      -1.504      0.4059      0.3939           0  0.975 -1.042 -1.966


Independent: strength=-0.294 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  13  0  0  488    0  1.799    1  2.964    1  3.296    1  3.357    1 0.7019    1 0.7407    1   1250 -0.007  2.932  3.782
Harvard               13  1  0  588   26  1.483    2  2.608    2  2.229    2  2.840    3 0.6337    3 0.6598    2   1200  0.150  2.528  3.151
Princeton             12  1  0  391   19  1.106    3  2.546    3  2.078    3  2.193    2 0.6520    2 0.6813    3   1150 -0.271  1.601  2.784
Pennsylvania          11  2  0  267  109  0.265    4  2.212    4  1.379    6  0.817    4 0.6040    4 0.6086    4   1100  0.992  1.298  0.336
Williams               8  2  1  306   84  0.905    5  2.158    5  1.266    4  1.337    5 0.5654    5 0.5836    5   1050  0.364  1.196  1.479
Amherst                8  4  3  318  154  0.455    6  1.841    6  0.661    7  0.690   10 0.5184   12 0.4989    9    853  0.514  0.681  0.700
Dartmouth              2  2  1   60   62  0.587    7  1.723    7  0.463    8  0.494   12 0.5133    9 0.5445   13    628  0.792  0.757  0.231
Lehigh                 7  6  0  174  198  0.317    8  1.717    8  0.448    9  0.280    6 0.5473    7 0.5621   12    725  0.922  0.683 -0.122
Trinity (Connecticut)  6  4  0  125  140 -0.067    9  1.523    9  0.080   12 -0.000    7 0.5396   10 0.5276   10    794  0.260 -0.227  0.226
Penn State             5  2  0  172   46 -0.398   10  1.480   11 -0.007   11  0.134   11 0.5166    8 0.5523    8    897  0.740  0.343 -0.075
Cornell                7  3  0  298   34  0.366   11  1.391   12 -0.184    5  1.236    9 0.5223   13 0.4928    7    951  0.203  0.964  1.507
Bucknell               6  2  1  176  106 -0.520   12  1.375   10 -0.005   13 -0.363    8 0.5234    6 0.5689    6    999  0.892  0.007 -0.732
Springfield            5  8  1  192  250  0.427   13  1.152   13 -0.382   10  0.180   16 0.4718   16 0.4588   15    561  0.946  0.610 -0.250
Rutgers                8  6  0  265  138 -0.644   14  0.900   17 -0.792   15 -0.547   15 0.4749   15 0.4896   11    730  0.618 -0.459 -0.635
Army                   4  1  1   80   73 -1.272   15  0.847   15 -0.767   19 -1.238   14 0.4849   17 0.4247   14    590  1.050 -0.690 -1.786
Navy                   5  2  0  121   62 -1.306   16  0.838   14 -0.765   18 -0.853   18 0.4505   22 0.3648   16    494  1.042 -0.314 -1.392
Wesleyan               2  7  0   66  373  0.392   17  0.820   16 -0.791   17 -0.764   13 0.4971   11 0.5065   22    189  0.649 -0.646 -0.883
Massachusetts          2  5  0   56  142 -0.289   18  0.727   18 -0.994   23 -1.596   24 0.3687   25 0.2950   20    293  0.364 -1.737 -1.455
M.I.T.                 2  6  0   54  122 -0.237   19  0.688   19 -1.081   14 -0.540   21 0.4154   19 0.3947   23    161  0.429 -0.624 -0.455
Franklin & Marshall    2  4  0   47  122 -0.845   20  0.670   20 -1.120   21 -1.330   17 0.4639   14 0.4925   21    264  0.502 -1.350 -1.310
Stevens                4  7  0  140  255 -0.915   21  0.652   21 -1.161   22 -1.579   23 0.3733   23 0.3098   18    413  0.871 -1.232 -1.925
Lafayette              2  9  1   86  161 -0.098   22  0.633   22 -1.191   16 -0.629   19 0.4241   18 0.4102   24    100 -0.020 -1.063 -0.195
Brown                  4  6  0  110  176 -0.732   23  0.616   23 -1.224   20 -1.284   22 0.4037   20 0.3915   17    459  0.592 -1.220 -1.347
Dickinson              2  2  1   78   84 -1.705   24  0.613   24 -1.230   24 -1.722   20 0.4216   21 0.3763   19    349  0.538 -1.709 -1.735
Columbia               1  5  0   32  220 -1.620   25  0.229   25 -2.239   26 -3.699   26 0.3092   26 0.2556   25     50  0.745 -3.485 -3.914
Haverford              0  6  0    8  245 -1.617   26  0.000   26 -2.873   25 -3.499   25 0.3186   24 0.2985   26      0  0.577 -3.449 -3.549

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 141 103  10 0.575    1 -0.294

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.270 points in main ratings
     0.020 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:05 2007

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