Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  13  0  0  429    0  1.286    1  1.897    1  2.419    1  2.485    1 0.6707    1 0.7271    1   1250 -0.147  1.911  3.059
Harvard               10  1  0  365   42  1.349    2  1.637    2  1.837    2  2.178    2 0.6494    2 0.7103    2   1200  0.580  2.170  2.185
Pennsylvania          15  1  0  405   52  0.369    3  1.524    3  1.593    6  1.034    6 0.5971    7 0.6082    3   1141  0.153  0.666  1.403
Purdue                 8  0  0  318   22  0.012    4  1.386    4  1.253    5  1.595    4 0.6233    5 0.6212    4   1096  0.474  1.490  1.701
Cornell               10  1  0  434   54  0.820    5  1.379    5  1.240    3  1.871    5 0.6150    4 0.6276    5   1062  1.301  2.671  1.070
Minnesota              5  0  0  122   56 -0.178    6  1.300    6  1.041    8  0.541    3 0.6458    3 0.6734    6    984  1.018  0.994  0.089
Princeton             13  2  0  473   18  0.781    7  1.285    7  1.006    4  1.810    8 0.5655   10 0.5706    7    952  0.061  1.374  2.246
M.I.T.                 4  3  0   72  114  0.174    8  1.087    8  0.597   13 -0.000   10 0.5494    9 0.5839   15    554  0.692  0.101 -0.101
Tufts                  8  2  0  172   89 -0.141    9  1.042    9  0.497   10  0.142    7 0.5710    6 0.6146    8    915  0.856  0.413 -0.129
Navy                   5  2  0  146   64  0.179   10  1.034   10  0.487    9  0.326   13 0.5117   14 0.5007    9    850  0.954  0.705 -0.053
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Amherst                9  5  0  318  141  0.315   11  0.964   11  0.350    7  0.825   11 0.5481   11 0.5577   13    658  0.828  1.066  0.583
Michigan               7  5  0  298  170  0.204   12  0.788   12  0.040   11  0.022   14 0.5088   13 0.5203   10    800  0.777  0.210 -0.166
Wisconsin              4  3  0  102   96 -0.050   13  0.722   13 -0.023   15 -0.078   12 0.5193   12 0.5542   14    575  0.930  0.275 -0.431
Dartmouth              5  3  0  102  146 -0.403   14  0.680   14 -0.104   18 -0.501    9 0.5645    8 0.5923   16    482  0.887 -0.196 -0.807
Army                   3  1  1   90   18 -0.587   15  0.560   15 -0.338   12  0.021   18 0.4553   22 0.3640   17    470  0.416 -0.135  0.177
Chicago                8  4  1  158  144 -0.516   16  0.547   16 -0.362   20 -0.617   19 0.4490   26 0.3201   11    748  0.422 -0.768 -0.465
Northwestern           6  4  2  140  112 -0.430   17  0.536   17 -0.417   17 -0.500   15 0.4863   18 0.4025   18    389  0.465 -0.613 -0.387
Springfield            4  3  0   86  100 -0.741   18  0.510   18 -0.461   21 -0.829   16 0.4757   16 0.4316   20    287  0.507 -0.905 -0.754
Illinois               7  4  1  240   92 -0.522   19  0.379   20 -0.685   14 -0.077   17 0.4597   25 0.3387   12    689  0.964  0.313 -0.467
Trinity (Connecticut)  2  4  1   30   83 -0.388   20  0.378   19 -0.680   22 -0.833   25 0.4147   21 0.3669   25     43 -0.050 -1.345 -0.321
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Williams               4  7  0  102  261 -0.256   21  0.369   21 -0.700   26 -1.001   21 0.4412   17 0.4248   19    350  0.947 -0.630 -1.372
Lafayette              5  7  0  126  139 -0.268   22  0.320   23 -0.780   16 -0.447   23 0.4205   23 0.3519   23    182  0.437 -0.584 -0.309
Lehigh                 3  6  0   91  164  0.045   23  0.319   22 -0.725   19 -0.575   22 0.4214   19 0.3850   22    185  0.418 -0.730 -0.420
Rutgers                3  5  1  108  160 -0.500   24  0.134   24 -1.051   23 -0.835   26 0.4081   20 0.3695   24    100  1.193 -0.173 -1.497
Wesleyan               1  8  1   34  230 -0.200   25  0.092   26 -1.117   24 -0.869   20 0.4442   15 0.4494   27      0  0.316 -1.110 -0.628
Brown                  4  5  1   60   86 -0.898   26  0.087   25 -1.112   27 -1.116   24 0.4189   24 0.3392   26      7  0.186 -1.460 -0.772
Massachusetts          4  6  2  194  202 -0.679   27  0.000   27 -1.235   25 -0.955   27 0.3736   27 0.2879   21    281  0.986 -0.540 -1.371
UNRANKED              12 90  3  474 2834 -0.501      -1.000      -1.000      -1.640      0.3890      0.3584           0  0.628 -1.601 -1.679


Independent: strength=-0.029 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  13  0  0  429    0  1.286    1  1.897    1  2.419    1  2.485    1 0.6707    1 0.7271    1   1250 -0.147  1.911  3.059
Harvard               10  1  0  365   42  1.349    2  1.637    2  1.837    2  2.178    2 0.6494    2 0.7103    2   1200  0.580  2.170  2.185
Pennsylvania          15  1  0  405   52  0.369    3  1.524    3  1.593    6  1.034    6 0.5971    7 0.6082    3   1141  0.153  0.666  1.403
Purdue                 8  0  0  318   22  0.012    4  1.386    4  1.253    5  1.595    4 0.6233    5 0.6212    4   1096  0.474  1.490  1.701
Cornell               10  1  0  434   54  0.820    5  1.379    5  1.240    3  1.871    5 0.6150    4 0.6276    5   1062  1.301  2.671  1.070
Minnesota              5  0  0  122   56 -0.178    6  1.300    6  1.041    8  0.541    3 0.6458    3 0.6734    6    984  1.018  0.994  0.089
Princeton             13  2  0  473   18  0.781    7  1.285    7  1.006    4  1.810    8 0.5655   10 0.5706    7    952  0.061  1.374  2.246
M.I.T.                 4  3  0   72  114  0.174    8  1.087    8  0.597   13 -0.000   10 0.5494    9 0.5839   15    554  0.692  0.101 -0.101
Tufts                  8  2  0  172   89 -0.141    9  1.042    9  0.497   10  0.142    7 0.5710    6 0.6146    8    915  0.856  0.413 -0.129
Navy                   5  2  0  146   64  0.179   10  1.034   10  0.487    9  0.326   13 0.5117   14 0.5007    9    850  0.954  0.705 -0.053
Amherst                9  5  0  318  141  0.315   11  0.964   11  0.350    7  0.825   11 0.5481   11 0.5577   13    658  0.828  1.066  0.583
Michigan               7  5  0  298  170  0.204   12  0.788   12  0.040   11  0.022   14 0.5088   13 0.5203   10    800  0.777  0.210 -0.166
Wisconsin              4  3  0  102   96 -0.050   13  0.722   13 -0.023   15 -0.078   12 0.5193   12 0.5542   14    575  0.930  0.275 -0.431
Dartmouth              5  3  0  102  146 -0.403   14  0.680   14 -0.104   18 -0.501    9 0.5645    8 0.5923   16    482  0.887 -0.196 -0.807
Army                   3  1  1   90   18 -0.587   15  0.560   15 -0.338   12  0.021   18 0.4553   22 0.3640   17    470  0.416 -0.135  0.177
Chicago                8  4  1  158  144 -0.516   16  0.547   16 -0.362   20 -0.617   19 0.4490   26 0.3201   11    748  0.422 -0.768 -0.465
Northwestern           6  4  2  140  112 -0.430   17  0.536   17 -0.417   17 -0.500   15 0.4863   18 0.4025   18    389  0.465 -0.613 -0.387
Springfield            4  3  0   86  100 -0.741   18  0.510   18 -0.461   21 -0.829   16 0.4757   16 0.4316   20    287  0.507 -0.905 -0.754
Illinois               7  4  1  240   92 -0.522   19  0.379   20 -0.685   14 -0.077   17 0.4597   25 0.3387   12    689  0.964  0.313 -0.467
Trinity (Connecticut)  2  4  1   30   83 -0.388   20  0.378   19 -0.680   22 -0.833   25 0.4147   21 0.3669   25     43 -0.050 -1.345 -0.321
Williams               4  7  0  102  261 -0.256   21  0.369   21 -0.700   26 -1.001   21 0.4412   17 0.4248   19    350  0.947 -0.630 -1.372
Lafayette              5  7  0  126  139 -0.268   22  0.320   23 -0.780   16 -0.447   23 0.4205   23 0.3519   23    182  0.437 -0.584 -0.309
Lehigh                 3  6  0   91  164  0.045   23  0.319   22 -0.725   19 -0.575   22 0.4214   19 0.3850   22    185  0.418 -0.730 -0.420
Rutgers                3  5  1  108  160 -0.500   24  0.134   24 -1.051   23 -0.835   26 0.4081   20 0.3695   24    100  1.193 -0.173 -1.497
Wesleyan               1  8  1   34  230 -0.200   25  0.092   26 -1.117   24 -0.869   20 0.4442   15 0.4494   27      0  0.316 -1.110 -0.628
Brown                  4  5  1   60   86 -0.898   26  0.087   25 -1.112   27 -1.116   24 0.4189   24 0.3392   26      7  0.186 -1.460 -0.772
Massachusetts          4  6  2  194  202 -0.679   27  0.000   27 -1.235   25 -0.955   27 0.3736   27 0.2879   21    281  0.986 -0.540 -1.371

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 170  92  11 0.643    1 -0.029

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.180 points in main ratings
     0.022 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:05 2007

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