Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton             11  0  0  270   14  1.487    1  2.792    1  3.040    3  2.447    1 0.6918    2 0.7049    1   1210 -0.020  1.898  2.996
Yale                  10  1  0  330   12  1.800    2  2.630    2  2.562    1  2.777    2 0.6698    1 0.7310    2   1150 -0.095  2.179  3.374
Harvard               12  1  0  418   15  1.393    3  2.461    3  2.202    2  2.583    3 0.6330    3 0.6808    3   1100  0.302  2.272  2.894
Pennsylvania          12  3  0  484   62  1.698    4  2.216    4  1.543    4  2.178    4 0.5818    6 0.5592    4   1050  0.818  2.350  2.005
Lehigh                 7  3  0  174   84  0.663    5  1.905    5  1.025    5  0.860    5 0.5693    9 0.4981    5    852  0.587  0.800  0.921
Dartmouth              4  3  0   84   90  0.718    6  1.882    6  0.974    6  0.728    6 0.5634    4 0.6227    7    718  0.297  0.414  1.043
Wesleyan               4  1  0   66  108 -1.327    7  1.642    7  0.449   14 -1.048    8 0.5215    7 0.5219    9    624  0.846 -0.846 -1.250
Williams               7  3  2  202  198 -0.155    8  1.507    8  0.161    8 -0.077    9 0.5203    8 0.5149    6    799  1.160  0.488 -0.641
Brown                  6  3  0  168   94  0.095    9  1.436    9  0.028    7  0.588    7 0.5372    5 0.6029    8    668  0.653  0.592  0.584
Cornell                3  6  1   94  172  0.065   10  1.161   10 -0.342   11 -0.669   14 0.4303   14 0.3551   11    402 -0.046 -1.236 -0.103
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Army                   4  5  0   84  109 -0.290   11  0.985   12 -0.628    9 -0.342   10 0.4885   12 0.4362   10    409  0.626 -0.365 -0.320
Lafayette              2  6  0   24  186  0.197   12  0.944   11 -0.582   13 -1.024   13 0.4369   16 0.3422   15    165  0.430 -1.226 -0.821
Amherst                7  6  1  162  220 -0.912   13  0.828   13 -0.796   12 -0.770   11 0.4660   10 0.4776   12    386  0.569 -0.847 -0.694
M.I.T.                 3  5  0   58  148 -0.868   14  0.729   14 -0.852   15 -1.298   15 0.4119   13 0.4177   14    178  0.716 -1.231 -1.364
Tufts                  4  7  0  130  144 -0.336   15  0.716   15 -0.874   10 -0.544   12 0.4480   11 0.4727   13    260  0.653 -0.540 -0.547
Worcester Tech         2  3  1   46  146 -1.754   16  0.423   16 -1.462   17 -2.171   16 0.3790   15 0.3456   16    112  0.790 -2.029 -2.313
Massachusetts          1  9  0   64  236 -1.493   17  0.094   17 -2.152   18 -2.540   18 0.2995   17 0.3019   18      0  0.592 -2.596 -2.485
Trinity (Connecticut)  0  9  2   77  194 -1.312   18  0.000   18 -2.320   16 -1.935   17 0.3334   18 0.2900   17     50  0.631 -1.953 -1.917
UNRANKED              18 59  1  548 1700 -0.103      -1.000      -1.000      -0.738      0.4333      0.4180           0  0.629 -0.758 -0.719

Unconnected Teams
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Minnesota              6  0  0  148   38  1.022       2.440       2.138       1.960      0.6857      0.7400        1240  0.785  2.097  1.822
Michigan               7  3  0  278  102  0.583       1.744       0.651       1.312      0.5431      0.5100         976  1.451  2.260  0.365
Wisconsin              4  2  0  112  110  0.782       1.732       0.706       0.833      0.6137      0.6818         968  1.167  1.406  0.260
Purdue                 5  2  1  334  144  0.166       1.582       0.288       0.373      0.4955      0.4157         904  1.755  1.768 -1.021
Lake Forest            3  2  3  114  114 -0.027       1.427       0.016      -0.139      0.4930      0.5088         636  0.954  0.183 -0.460
Chicago                6  4  2  148  143 -0.190       1.314      -0.123      -0.232      0.4775      0.3831         586  0.379 -0.479  0.014
Illinois               3  2  3  156  106 -0.264       1.181      -0.313      -0.074      0.4775      0.4521         519  0.731  0.008 -0.155
Northwestern           2  5  3   92  176 -0.121       1.022      -0.565      -0.567      0.4453      0.3839         288  0.871 -0.338 -0.797


Independent: strength=0.026 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton             11  0  0  270   14  1.487    1  2.792    1  3.040    3  2.447    1 0.6918    2 0.7049    1   1210 -0.020  1.898  2.996
Yale                  10  1  0  330   12  1.800    2  2.630    2  2.562    1  2.777    2 0.6698    1 0.7310    2   1150 -0.095  2.179  3.374
Harvard               12  1  0  418   15  1.393    3  2.461    3  2.202    2  2.583    3 0.6330    3 0.6808    3   1100  0.302  2.272  2.894
Pennsylvania          12  3  0  484   62  1.698    4  2.216    4  1.543    4  2.178    4 0.5818    6 0.5592    4   1050  0.818  2.350  2.005
Lehigh                 7  3  0  174   84  0.663    5  1.905    5  1.025    5  0.860    5 0.5693    9 0.4981    5    852  0.587  0.800  0.921
Dartmouth              4  3  0   84   90  0.718    6  1.882    6  0.974    6  0.728    6 0.5634    4 0.6227    7    718  0.297  0.414  1.043
Wesleyan               4  1  0   66  108 -1.327    7  1.642    7  0.449   14 -1.048    8 0.5215    7 0.5219    9    624  0.846 -0.846 -1.250
Williams               7  3  2  202  198 -0.155    8  1.507    8  0.161    8 -0.077    9 0.5203    8 0.5149    6    799  1.160  0.488 -0.641
Brown                  6  3  0  168   94  0.095    9  1.436    9  0.028    7  0.588    7 0.5372    5 0.6029    8    668  0.653  0.592  0.584
Cornell                3  6  1   94  172  0.065   10  1.161   10 -0.342   11 -0.669   14 0.4303   14 0.3551   11    402 -0.046 -1.236 -0.103
Army                   4  5  0   84  109 -0.290   11  0.985   12 -0.628    9 -0.342   10 0.4885   12 0.4362   10    409  0.626 -0.365 -0.320
Lafayette              2  6  0   24  186  0.197   12  0.944   11 -0.582   13 -1.024   13 0.4369   16 0.3422   15    165  0.430 -1.226 -0.821
Amherst                7  6  1  162  220 -0.912   13  0.828   13 -0.796   12 -0.770   11 0.4660   10 0.4776   12    386  0.569 -0.847 -0.694
M.I.T.                 3  5  0   58  148 -0.868   14  0.729   14 -0.852   15 -1.298   15 0.4119   13 0.4177   14    178  0.716 -1.231 -1.364
Tufts                  4  7  0  130  144 -0.336   15  0.716   15 -0.874   10 -0.544   12 0.4480   11 0.4727   13    260  0.653 -0.540 -0.547
Worcester Tech         2  3  1   46  146 -1.754   16  0.423   16 -1.462   17 -2.171   16 0.3790   15 0.3456   16    112  0.790 -2.029 -2.313
Massachusetts          1  9  0   64  236 -1.493   17  0.094   17 -2.152   18 -2.540   18 0.2995   17 0.3019   18      0  0.592 -2.596 -2.485
Trinity (Connecticut)  0  9  2   77  194 -1.312   18  0.000   18 -2.320   16 -1.935   17 0.3334   18 0.2900   17     50  0.631 -1.953 -1.917

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 135  94  19 0.583    1  0.026

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.269 points in main ratings
     0.024 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:05 2007

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