Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  16  0  0  485   13  1.039    1  2.452    1  2.665    1  2.537    1 0.6742    2 0.6945    2   1197  0.061  2.323  2.751
Pennsylvania          12  0  0  366   20  0.793    2  2.276    2  2.206    2  1.910    2 0.6531    3 0.6754    1   1250 -0.041  1.623  2.196
Purdue                 8  1  0  182   36  1.160    3  2.141    3  1.868    6  1.397    3 0.6381    1 0.7528    3   1153  0.270  1.343  1.451
Harvard               11  2  0  334   46  1.093    4  2.028    4  1.609    3  1.803    4 0.6174    5 0.6707    4   1094  0.637  2.074  1.531
Princeton              8  2  0  208   44  0.816    5  1.857    5  1.229    7  1.210    7 0.5920   10 0.5582    7    950  0.215  1.112  1.307
Minnesota              3  1  0   74    8  1.396    6  1.845    6  1.206    4  1.732    5 0.6059    6 0.6569    6   1003  0.169  1.598  1.865
Brown                 10  5  0  262  102  0.729    7  1.694    7  0.833   10  0.792   12 0.5403   12 0.5345    9    850  0.185  0.671  0.914
Wisconsin              5  2  0  152   26  0.956    8  1.536    8  0.534    5  1.630    6 0.6011    4 0.6742    8    900  0.305  1.604  1.656
Cornell                6  4  1  174   58  0.650    9  1.531    9  0.525    8  0.943    9 0.5448   11 0.5477   12    691  0.212  0.843  1.044
Williams               6  3  1  112   75  0.206   10  1.445   10  0.519   11  0.362   10 0.5423    9 0.5647   11    727  0.051  0.141  0.583
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Michigan               9  1  1  244   84  0.091   11  1.362   11  0.362   13  0.318    8 0.5698    7 0.5975    5   1053  0.640  0.592  0.044
Army                   3  2  0   95   22  0.360   12  1.264   12  0.153    9  0.917   13 0.5080   13 0.4757   18    391  0.471  1.034  0.800
Dartmouth              5  4  0  112   80  0.305   13  1.200   13  0.013   12  0.348   11 0.5405    8 0.5709   15    544  0.395  0.399  0.298
Beloit                 5  3  0  126  131 -0.593   14  1.163   14 -0.065   19 -0.827   19 0.4593   20 0.3803   10    799  0.848 -0.343 -1.312
Union (New York)       3  4  0   58  107 -0.440   15  1.024   15 -0.368   21 -0.851   21 0.4420   18 0.3944   22    205  0.415 -0.784 -0.919
Amherst                7  5  1  110  126 -0.703   16  0.929   16 -0.520   20 -0.837   20 0.4549   15 0.4513   16    455  0.026 -1.076 -0.598
Trinity (Connecticut)  4  3  0   44   68 -0.922   17  0.928   17 -0.524   23 -1.060   23 0.4258   23 0.3630   19    382  0.067 -1.270 -0.851
Tufts                  6  5  0   80  153 -0.535   18  0.898   18 -0.619   22 -0.916   14 0.4887   14 0.4677   20    334 -0.030 -1.195 -0.638
Lafayette              5  6  0  190  191 -0.031   19  0.883   19 -0.642   16 -0.276   16 0.4666   22 0.3661   17    444  0.986  0.359 -0.910
M.I.T.                 2  5  0   34   84 -0.213   20  0.860   20 -0.678   17 -0.563   22 0.4334   21 0.3783   24     78  0.221 -0.656 -0.470
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Lehigh                 5  9  0  120  242  0.107   21  0.792   21 -0.805   18 -0.634   17 0.4640   19 0.3817   21    243  0.229 -0.721 -0.547
Chicago               14  7  1  404  134 -0.739   22  0.746   22 -0.870   15 -0.127   15 0.4700   17 0.4231   13    683  0.230 -0.213 -0.041
Illinois               4  3  0  182   66 -0.620   23  0.742   23 -0.875   14  0.022   18 0.4601   16 0.4244   14    599  0.983  0.654 -0.609
Massachusetts          3  3  0   44   70 -1.382   24  0.562   24 -1.233   24 -1.388   24 0.3808   24 0.3444   26      0  0.112 -1.564 -1.211
Lake Forest            3  4  0  116  134 -1.775   25  0.452   26 -1.446   25 -1.828   25 0.3604   25 0.2209   23    153  0.945 -1.240 -2.417
Northwestern           4  5  0   72  228 -1.685   26  0.423   25 -1.235   27 -2.679   26 0.3497   27 0.1723   25     72  0.767 -2.279 -3.080
Wesleyan               0  5  0   10  108 -1.489   27  0.000   27 -2.471   26 -2.432   27 0.2807   26 0.2095   27      0  0.533 -2.259 -2.605
UNRANKED              16 89  3  539 2473 -0.314      -1.000      -1.000      -1.232      0.4194      0.4061           0  0.785 -0.813 -1.651


Independent: strength=0.075 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  16  0  0  485   13  1.039    1  2.452    1  2.665    1  2.537    1 0.6742    2 0.6945    2   1197  0.061  2.323  2.751
Pennsylvania          12  0  0  366   20  0.793    2  2.276    2  2.206    2  1.910    2 0.6531    3 0.6754    1   1250 -0.041  1.623  2.196
Purdue                 8  1  0  182   36  1.160    3  2.141    3  1.868    6  1.397    3 0.6381    1 0.7528    3   1153  0.270  1.343  1.451
Harvard               11  2  0  334   46  1.093    4  2.028    4  1.609    3  1.803    4 0.6174    5 0.6707    4   1094  0.637  2.074  1.531
Princeton              8  2  0  208   44  0.816    5  1.857    5  1.229    7  1.210    7 0.5920   10 0.5582    7    950  0.215  1.112  1.307
Minnesota              3  1  0   74    8  1.396    6  1.845    6  1.206    4  1.732    5 0.6059    6 0.6569    6   1003  0.169  1.598  1.865
Brown                 10  5  0  262  102  0.729    7  1.694    7  0.833   10  0.792   12 0.5403   12 0.5345    9    850  0.185  0.671  0.914
Wisconsin              5  2  0  152   26  0.956    8  1.536    8  0.534    5  1.630    6 0.6011    4 0.6742    8    900  0.305  1.604  1.656
Cornell                6  4  1  174   58  0.650    9  1.531    9  0.525    8  0.943    9 0.5448   11 0.5477   12    691  0.212  0.843  1.044
Williams               6  3  1  112   75  0.206   10  1.445   10  0.519   11  0.362   10 0.5423    9 0.5647   11    727  0.051  0.141  0.583
Michigan               9  1  1  244   84  0.091   11  1.362   11  0.362   13  0.318    8 0.5698    7 0.5975    5   1053  0.640  0.592  0.044
Army                   3  2  0   95   22  0.360   12  1.264   12  0.153    9  0.917   13 0.5080   13 0.4757   18    391  0.471  1.034  0.800
Dartmouth              5  4  0  112   80  0.305   13  1.200   13  0.013   12  0.348   11 0.5405    8 0.5709   15    544  0.395  0.399  0.298
Beloit                 5  3  0  126  131 -0.593   14  1.163   14 -0.065   19 -0.827   19 0.4593   20 0.3803   10    799  0.848 -0.343 -1.312
Union (New York)       3  4  0   58  107 -0.440   15  1.024   15 -0.368   21 -0.851   21 0.4420   18 0.3944   22    205  0.415 -0.784 -0.919
Amherst                7  5  1  110  126 -0.703   16  0.929   16 -0.520   20 -0.837   20 0.4549   15 0.4513   16    455  0.026 -1.076 -0.598
Trinity (Connecticut)  4  3  0   44   68 -0.922   17  0.928   17 -0.524   23 -1.060   23 0.4258   23 0.3630   19    382  0.067 -1.270 -0.851
Tufts                  6  5  0   80  153 -0.535   18  0.898   18 -0.619   22 -0.916   14 0.4887   14 0.4677   20    334 -0.030 -1.195 -0.638
Lafayette              5  6  0  190  191 -0.031   19  0.883   19 -0.642   16 -0.276   16 0.4666   22 0.3661   17    444  0.986  0.359 -0.910
M.I.T.                 2  5  0   34   84 -0.213   20  0.860   20 -0.678   17 -0.563   22 0.4334   21 0.3783   24     78  0.221 -0.656 -0.470
Lehigh                 5  9  0  120  242  0.107   21  0.792   21 -0.805   18 -0.634   17 0.4640   19 0.3817   21    243  0.229 -0.721 -0.547
Chicago               14  7  1  404  134 -0.739   22  0.746   22 -0.870   15 -0.127   15 0.4700   17 0.4231   13    683  0.230 -0.213 -0.041
Illinois               4  3  0  182   66 -0.620   23  0.742   23 -0.875   14  0.022   18 0.4601   16 0.4244   14    599  0.983  0.654 -0.609
Massachusetts          3  3  0   44   70 -1.382   24  0.562   24 -1.233   24 -1.388   24 0.3808   24 0.3444   26      0  0.112 -1.564 -1.211
Lake Forest            3  4  0  116  134 -1.775   25  0.452   26 -1.446   25 -1.828   25 0.3604   25 0.2209   23    153  0.945 -1.240 -2.417
Northwestern           4  5  0   72  228 -1.685   26  0.423   25 -1.235   27 -2.679   26 0.3497   27 0.1723   25     72  0.767 -2.279 -3.080
Wesleyan               0  5  0   10  108 -1.489   27  0.000   27 -2.471   26 -2.432   27 0.2807   26 0.2095   27      0  0.533 -2.259 -2.605

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 167  94   5 0.637    1  0.075

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.388 points in main ratings
     0.034 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:05 2007

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