Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Pennsylvania          14  0  0  480   24  0.556    1  1.934    1  1.703    1  1.801    1 0.6457    2 0.6862    1   1250  0.636  2.017  1.586
Michigan               8  1  0  266   14  0.669    2  1.711    2  1.179    3  1.379    5 0.5998    4 0.6388    2   1200  0.058  1.108  1.649
Yale                  13  0  2  316   38  0.494    3  1.624    3  1.015    2  1.603    2 0.6378    1 0.6873    3   1150  0.484  1.677  1.529
Harvard                8  2  1  179   35  0.785    4  1.464    4  0.770    4  1.337    3 0.6169    3 0.6480    5   1052  0.094  1.092  1.581
Army                   5  2  0  141   32  0.482    5  1.381    5  0.706    5  1.184    7 0.5516   12 0.5081    9    850  0.656  1.419  0.949
Princeton             10  1  1  224   28  0.313    6  1.360    6  0.664    6  1.002    4 0.6123    5 0.6075    4   1098  0.140  0.792  1.213
Lafayette              6  2  0  162   62  0.082    7  1.251    7  0.582   14  0.197    6 0.5773    8 0.5581    8    900  0.549  0.330  0.064
Wisconsin              5  2  1  144   71  0.134    8  1.153    8  0.387   11  0.399   13 0.4977   15 0.4827   10    787  0.867  0.850 -0.052
Minnesota              7  3  0  136   58  0.330    9  1.074   10  0.205    9  0.425    8 0.5393    7 0.5735    6    978  0.450  0.468  0.381
Chicago               10  3  0  260   66 -0.123   10  1.044    9  0.213   12  0.304   16 0.4899   19 0.4261    7    972  0.500  0.392  0.216
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Brown                  7  6  1  150  109  0.287   11  0.994   11  0.140   10  0.413    9 0.5312   11 0.5270   16    484  0.191  0.241  0.584
Purdue                 4  3  0   82   58  0.352   12  0.903   12 -0.007    8  0.434   12 0.5136    9 0.5501   14    644  0.426  0.457  0.411
Dartmouth              7  5  1  184   99  0.350   13  0.880   13 -0.048   13  0.283   10 0.5215   10 0.5500   11    753 -0.046 -0.060  0.626
Illinois               4  2  1  215   28  0.238   14  0.870   14 -0.065    7  0.919   14 0.4977   13 0.5008   12    662  0.495  1.002  0.835
Northwestern           6  5  0  192  132 -0.025   15  0.725   15 -0.244   16 -0.040   19 0.4546   20 0.4034   13    653  0.953  0.505 -0.586
Wesleyan               6  3  0  147   60 -0.582   16  0.718   16 -0.257   17 -0.124   17 0.4847   18 0.4567   21    282  0.634  0.090 -0.338
Iowa State             3  4  0   82   70  0.301   17  0.654   17 -0.366   15  0.057   20 0.4534   16 0.4748   20    304  0.667  0.303 -0.188
Amherst                6  5  0  174  152 -0.435   18  0.629   18 -0.411   19 -0.468   11 0.5186    6 0.5736   19    342  0.795 -0.092 -0.843
Cornell                3  4  1   28   91  0.183   19  0.608   19 -0.445   18 -0.441   15 0.4964   14 0.4842   18    373 -0.350 -0.973  0.090
Trinity (Connecticut)  4  4  0  140   76 -0.451   20  0.577   20 -0.502   20 -0.489   23 0.4157   22 0.3603   17    468  0.351 -0.531 -0.447
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tufts                  8  5  0  132  101 -0.650   21  0.534   21 -0.548   22 -0.796   22 0.4350   25 0.3302   15    525  0.144 -1.003 -0.589
Williams               4  5  0   85  177 -0.368   22  0.484   22 -0.624   23 -0.931   18 0.4590   17 0.4612   22    222  0.783 -0.568 -1.294
Lehigh                 3  6  0   63  134 -0.017   23  0.427   23 -0.721   21 -0.769   21 0.4415   21 0.3956   23    147  0.599 -0.589 -0.950
M.I.T.                 1  4  0   10   92 -0.421   24  0.377   24 -0.815   25 -1.341   24 0.4131   23 0.3533   25     50  0.152 -1.543 -1.140
Lake Forest            4  8  0   59  242 -0.589   25  0.205   25 -1.157   26 -1.616   25 0.3863   26 0.3272   24    104  0.391 -1.624 -1.608
Union (New York)       0  5  0    6   84 -0.238   26  0.097   26 -1.382   24 -1.005   26 0.3763   24 0.3519   26      0 -0.330 -1.525 -0.485
Massachusetts          1  5  0   20  120 -1.159   27  0.000   27 -1.610   27 -2.337   27 0.3106   27 0.2712   27      0  0.313 -2.411 -2.264
UNRANKED              16 78  5  369 2193 -0.451      -1.000      -1.000      -1.373      0.4135      0.3970           0  0.447 -1.332 -1.414


Independent: strength=0.081 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Pennsylvania          14  0  0  480   24  0.556    1  1.934    1  1.703    1  1.801    1 0.6457    2 0.6862    1   1250  0.636  2.017  1.586
Michigan               8  1  0  266   14  0.669    2  1.711    2  1.179    3  1.379    5 0.5998    4 0.6388    2   1200  0.058  1.108  1.649
Yale                  13  0  2  316   38  0.494    3  1.624    3  1.015    2  1.603    2 0.6378    1 0.6873    3   1150  0.484  1.677  1.529
Harvard                8  2  1  179   35  0.785    4  1.464    4  0.770    4  1.337    3 0.6169    3 0.6480    5   1052  0.094  1.092  1.581
Army                   5  2  0  141   32  0.482    5  1.381    5  0.706    5  1.184    7 0.5516   12 0.5081    9    850  0.656  1.419  0.949
Princeton             10  1  1  224   28  0.313    6  1.360    6  0.664    6  1.002    4 0.6123    5 0.6075    4   1098  0.140  0.792  1.213
Lafayette              6  2  0  162   62  0.082    7  1.251    7  0.582   14  0.197    6 0.5773    8 0.5581    8    900  0.549  0.330  0.064
Wisconsin              5  2  1  144   71  0.134    8  1.153    8  0.387   11  0.399   13 0.4977   15 0.4827   10    787  0.867  0.850 -0.052
Minnesota              7  3  0  136   58  0.330    9  1.074   10  0.205    9  0.425    8 0.5393    7 0.5735    6    978  0.450  0.468  0.381
Chicago               10  3  0  260   66 -0.123   10  1.044    9  0.213   12  0.304   16 0.4899   19 0.4261    7    972  0.500  0.392  0.216
Brown                  7  6  1  150  109  0.287   11  0.994   11  0.140   10  0.413    9 0.5312   11 0.5270   16    484  0.191  0.241  0.584
Purdue                 4  3  0   82   58  0.352   12  0.903   12 -0.007    8  0.434   12 0.5136    9 0.5501   14    644  0.426  0.457  0.411
Dartmouth              7  5  1  184   99  0.350   13  0.880   13 -0.048   13  0.283   10 0.5215   10 0.5500   11    753 -0.046 -0.060  0.626
Illinois               4  2  1  215   28  0.238   14  0.870   14 -0.065    7  0.919   14 0.4977   13 0.5008   12    662  0.495  1.002  0.835
Northwestern           6  5  0  192  132 -0.025   15  0.725   15 -0.244   16 -0.040   19 0.4546   20 0.4034   13    653  0.953  0.505 -0.586
Wesleyan               6  3  0  147   60 -0.582   16  0.718   16 -0.257   17 -0.124   17 0.4847   18 0.4567   21    282  0.634  0.090 -0.338
Iowa State             3  4  0   82   70  0.301   17  0.654   17 -0.366   15  0.057   20 0.4534   16 0.4748   20    304  0.667  0.303 -0.188
Amherst                6  5  0  174  152 -0.435   18  0.629   18 -0.411   19 -0.468   11 0.5186    6 0.5736   19    342  0.795 -0.092 -0.843
Cornell                3  4  1   28   91  0.183   19  0.608   19 -0.445   18 -0.441   15 0.4964   14 0.4842   18    373 -0.350 -0.973  0.090
Trinity (Connecticut)  4  4  0  140   76 -0.451   20  0.577   20 -0.502   20 -0.489   23 0.4157   22 0.3603   17    468  0.351 -0.531 -0.447
Tufts                  8  5  0  132  101 -0.650   21  0.534   21 -0.548   22 -0.796   22 0.4350   25 0.3302   15    525  0.144 -1.003 -0.589
Williams               4  5  0   85  177 -0.368   22  0.484   22 -0.624   23 -0.931   18 0.4590   17 0.4612   22    222  0.783 -0.568 -1.294
Lehigh                 3  6  0   63  134 -0.017   23  0.427   23 -0.721   21 -0.769   21 0.4415   21 0.3956   23    147  0.599 -0.589 -0.950
M.I.T.                 1  4  0   10   92 -0.421   24  0.377   24 -0.815   25 -1.341   24 0.4131   23 0.3533   25     50  0.152 -1.543 -1.140
Lake Forest            4  8  0   59  242 -0.589   25  0.205   25 -1.157   26 -1.616   25 0.3863   26 0.3272   24    104  0.391 -1.624 -1.608
Union (New York)       0  5  0    6   84 -0.238   26  0.097   26 -1.382   24 -1.005   26 0.3763   24 0.3519   26      0 -0.330 -1.525 -0.485
Massachusetts          1  5  0   20  120 -1.159   27  0.000   27 -1.610   27 -2.337   27 0.3106   27 0.2712   27      0  0.313 -2.411 -2.264

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 157  95   9 0.619    1  0.081

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.293 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:04 2007

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