Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton             10  0  1  299   12  1.000    1  2.088    1  1.800    1  1.969    1 0.6633    1 0.6886    1   1250  0.034  1.777  2.160
Lafayette             11  0  1  240   10  0.669    2  1.917    2  1.629    4  1.262    3 0.6297    3 0.6327    2   1200 -0.419  0.786  1.739
Yale                  13  1  0  218   44  0.517    3  1.851    3  1.500    3  1.306    2 0.6361    2 0.6621    4   1100  0.205  1.243  1.370
Pennsylvania          14  1  0  326   24  0.302    4  1.788    4  1.388    2  1.471    4 0.6194    5 0.5932    5   1038 -0.113  1.178  1.764
Michigan               9  1  0  262   11  0.114    5  1.458    5  0.682    5  1.164    7 0.5554   10 0.5203    6    964  0.266  1.148  1.180
Wisconsin              7  1  1  206   30  0.264    6  1.452    6  0.674    7  0.877    8 0.5535    9 0.5434    8    938  0.150  0.771  0.983
Dartmouth              5  2  1  122   84  0.202    7  1.362    7  0.506   13  0.272    6 0.5556    6 0.5761   13    673  0.998  0.961 -0.416
Chicago               15  2  1  368   82 -0.089    8  1.316    8  0.426   15  0.189   10 0.5347    8 0.5566    3   1150  0.500  0.374  0.004
Carlisle               5  5  0  164  102  0.787    9  1.250    9  0.322    8  0.673   11 0.5210   11 0.5146   16    469  1.077  1.451 -0.104
Minnesota              8  2  0  168   24  0.159   10  1.241   10  0.298   10  0.436   19 0.4799   26 0.3740    7    960 -0.163  0.110  0.761
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Brown                  4  5  1  126  100  0.587   11  1.200   11  0.230   11  0.428   12 0.5140   12 0.4959   24    137  0.648  0.751  0.105
Army                   3  2  1   93   45  0.124   12  1.111   13  0.085   16  0.126   14 0.5017   16 0.4456   14    547  0.314  0.150  0.103
Harvard                7  4  0  132   40  0.609   13  1.083   15  0.036    6  1.059    5 0.5768    4 0.5986   11    748 -0.179  0.723  1.394
Cornell                5  3  1  162   82  0.227   14  1.016   12  0.089   14  0.258   13 0.5041   13 0.4893   12    679  0.975  0.921 -0.405
Northwestern           6  1  2  156   46  0.101   15  0.988   14  0.039    9  0.463    9 0.5386    7 0.5623    9    850  0.870  1.012 -0.086
Purdue                 4  2  1  122   60 -0.118   16  0.923   16 -0.076   19 -0.251   29 0.4189   29 0.2600   10    800  0.376 -0.175 -0.326
Williams               6  4  1   96   54 -0.120   17  0.868   17 -0.173   18 -0.095   17 0.4855   14 0.4794   19    373 -0.662 -0.694  0.504
Illinois               4  2  1  148   36 -0.279   18  0.852   18 -0.201   17  0.037   23 0.4530   27 0.3734   20    308  0.221 -0.014  0.088
Wesleyan               4  5  1   86  106 -0.118   19  0.836   19 -0.225   20 -0.282   18 0.4825   15 0.4718   27      0  0.613  0.008 -0.572
Bucknell               5  2  1   54  100 -0.825   20  0.822   20 -0.254   25 -0.919   15 0.5004   17 0.4423   18    429  0.051 -1.098 -0.739
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Navy                   5  3  0  180   53  0.001   21  0.684   22 -0.511   12  0.301   16 0.4906   20 0.4177   15    536  0.980  0.968 -0.367
Lehigh                 2  5  0   80  130  0.433   22  0.643   21 -0.401   22 -0.533   26 0.4307   25 0.3754   28      0  0.528 -0.323 -0.743
Penn State             3  4  0   63  128 -0.502   23  0.588   23 -0.524   26 -0.931   21 0.4561   23 0.3875   25     42  0.462 -0.781 -1.082
Trinity (Connecticut)  5  3  1  108   72 -0.472   24  0.585   24 -0.531   21 -0.381   20 0.4662   21 0.4154   17    462  0.499 -0.197 -0.565
Amherst                3  6  1   62  128 -0.215   25  0.539   25 -0.542   24 -0.796   22 0.4557   18 0.4388   29      0 -0.015 -1.023 -0.570
Lake Forest            3  4  1   76  150 -0.450   26  0.534   26 -0.553   28 -1.135   27 0.4293   19 0.4261   23    154  0.467 -0.980 -1.290
Dickinson              4  5  0  130   90 -0.408   27  0.432   27 -0.735   23 -0.692   28 0.4199   28 0.3312   22    169  0.269 -0.705 -0.679
Bowdoin                5  3  2   82   86 -1.027   28  0.366   28 -0.844   27 -1.025   25 0.4355   24 0.3860   26     12  0.306 -1.007 -1.042
Franklin & Marshall    3  4  2   70  125 -0.773   29  0.266   29 -0.998   29 -1.183   24 0.4363   22 0.3918   21    262  0.178 -1.268 -1.098
Tufts                  2  6  1   42  117 -0.985   30  0.000   30 -1.446   30 -1.649   30 0.3335   30 0.2177   30      0 -0.014 -1.874 -1.423
UNRANKED               7 99  5  227 2497 -0.489      -1.000      -1.000      -1.664      0.3794      0.3443           0  0.324 -1.632 -1.697


Independent: strength=-0.109 (#2)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton             10  0  1  299   12  1.000    1  2.088    1  1.800    1  1.969    1 0.6633    1 0.6886    1   1250  0.034  1.777  2.160
Lafayette             11  0  1  240   10  0.669    2  1.917    2  1.629    4  1.262    3 0.6297    3 0.6327    2   1200 -0.419  0.786  1.739
Yale                  13  1  0  218   44  0.517    3  1.851    3  1.500    3  1.306    2 0.6361    2 0.6621    4   1100  0.205  1.243  1.370
Pennsylvania          14  1  0  326   24  0.302    4  1.788    4  1.388    2  1.471    4 0.6194    5 0.5932    5   1038 -0.113  1.178  1.764
Dartmouth              5  2  1  122   84  0.202    7  1.362    7  0.506   13  0.272    6 0.5556    6 0.5761   13    673  0.998  0.961 -0.416
Carlisle               5  5  0  164  102  0.787    9  1.250    9  0.322    8  0.673   11 0.5210   11 0.5146   16    469  1.077  1.451 -0.104
Brown                  4  5  1  126  100  0.587   11  1.200   11  0.230   11  0.428   12 0.5140   12 0.4959   24    137  0.648  0.751  0.105
Army                   3  2  1   93   45  0.124   12  1.111   13  0.085   16  0.126   14 0.5017   16 0.4456   14    547  0.314  0.150  0.103
Harvard                7  4  0  132   40  0.609   13  1.083   15  0.036    6  1.059    5 0.5768    4 0.5986   11    748 -0.179  0.723  1.394
Cornell                5  3  1  162   82  0.227   14  1.016   12  0.089   14  0.258   13 0.5041   13 0.4893   12    679  0.975  0.921 -0.405
Williams               6  4  1   96   54 -0.120   17  0.868   17 -0.173   18 -0.095   17 0.4855   14 0.4794   19    373 -0.662 -0.694  0.504
Wesleyan               4  5  1   86  106 -0.118   19  0.836   19 -0.225   20 -0.282   18 0.4825   15 0.4718   27      0  0.613  0.008 -0.572
Bucknell               5  2  1   54  100 -0.825   20  0.822   20 -0.254   25 -0.919   15 0.5004   17 0.4423   18    429  0.051 -1.098 -0.739
Navy                   5  3  0  180   53  0.001   21  0.684   22 -0.511   12  0.301   16 0.4906   20 0.4177   15    536  0.980  0.968 -0.367
Lehigh                 2  5  0   80  130  0.433   22  0.643   21 -0.401   22 -0.533   26 0.4307   25 0.3754   28      0  0.528 -0.323 -0.743
Penn State             3  4  0   63  128 -0.502   23  0.588   23 -0.524   26 -0.931   21 0.4561   23 0.3875   25     42  0.462 -0.781 -1.082
Trinity (Connecticut)  5  3  1  108   72 -0.472   24  0.585   24 -0.531   21 -0.381   20 0.4662   21 0.4154   17    462  0.499 -0.197 -0.565
Amherst                3  6  1   62  128 -0.215   25  0.539   25 -0.542   24 -0.796   22 0.4557   18 0.4388   29      0 -0.015 -1.023 -0.570
Lake Forest            3  4  1   76  150 -0.450   26  0.534   26 -0.553   28 -1.135   27 0.4293   19 0.4261   23    154  0.467 -0.980 -1.290
Dickinson              4  5  0  130   90 -0.408   27  0.432   27 -0.735   23 -0.692   28 0.4199   28 0.3312   22    169  0.269 -0.705 -0.679
Bowdoin                5  3  2   82   86 -1.027   28  0.366   28 -0.844   27 -1.025   25 0.4355   24 0.3860   26     12  0.306 -1.007 -1.042
Franklin & Marshall    3  4  2   70  125 -0.773   29  0.266   29 -0.998   29 -1.183   24 0.4363   22 0.3918   21    262  0.178 -1.268 -1.098
Tufts                  2  6  1   42  117 -0.985   30  0.000   30 -1.446   30 -1.649   30 0.3335   30 0.2177   30      0 -0.014 -1.874 -1.423

Western: strength=0.491 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Michigan               9  1  0  262   11  0.114    5  1.458    5  0.682    5  1.164    7 0.5554   10 0.5203    6    964  0.266  1.148  1.180
Wisconsin              7  1  1  206   30  0.264    6  1.452    6  0.674    7  0.877    8 0.5535    9 0.5434    8    938  0.150  0.771  0.983
Chicago               15  2  1  368   82 -0.089    8  1.316    8  0.426   15  0.189   10 0.5347    8 0.5566    3   1150  0.500  0.374  0.004
Minnesota              8  2  0  168   24  0.159   10  1.241   10  0.298   10  0.436   19 0.4799   26 0.3740    7    960 -0.163  0.110  0.761
Northwestern           6  1  2  156   46  0.101   15  0.988   14  0.039    9  0.463    9 0.5386    7 0.5623    9    850  0.870  1.012 -0.086
Purdue                 4  2  1  122   60 -0.118   16  0.923   16 -0.076   19 -0.251   29 0.4189   29 0.2600   10    800  0.376 -0.175 -0.326
Illinois               4  2  1  148   36 -0.279   18  0.852   18 -0.201   17  0.037   23 0.4530   27 0.3734   20    308  0.221 -0.014  0.088

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Western      53  11   6 0.800    1  0.491
Independent 127  77  17 0.613    2 -0.109

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.257 points in main ratings
     0.025 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:04 2007

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.