Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton              12   1   0  185   21  1.029    1  2.209    1  1.987    3  1.669    1 0.6723    1 0.6814    1   1232 -0.204  1.376  1.963
Harvard                10   0   1  210   10  0.897    2  2.179    2  1.933    2  1.882    2 0.6458    3 0.6443    2   1212 -0.237  1.568  2.197
Chicago                16   0   2  505   28  0.803    3  2.051    3  1.708    1  1.894    4 0.6327    2 0.6672    3   1152  0.408  2.056  1.732
Lafayette              12   1   0  253   23  0.757    4  2.041    4  1.690    7  1.387    3 0.6403    4 0.6297    4   1084 -0.481  0.934  1.841
Iowa                    8   0   1  223    5  0.673    5  1.943    5  1.480    6  1.415    7 0.5932    5 0.6059    6   1006 -0.245  1.096  1.735
Carlisle                9   2   0  383   46  1.159    6  1.838    6  1.257    4  1.547    5 0.6054    6 0.6006    5   1064  0.953  2.241  0.853
Pennsylvania            8   3   2  268   81  0.982    7  1.811    7  1.231    8  1.380    8 0.5911    8 0.5790   12    694  0.776  1.888  0.873
Yale                    7   2   1  191   16  0.842    8  1.783    8  1.186    5  1.521    9 0.5884   11 0.5715   11    786 -0.315  1.160  1.883
Cornell                 7   3   0  134   52  0.920    9  1.732    9  1.097   10  1.119    6 0.5958    7 0.5863    9    825  0.256  1.154  1.084
Wisconsin               9   2   0  270   33  0.615   10  1.676   10  0.990    9  1.318   10 0.5786    9 0.5721   10    821  0.404  1.476  1.160
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Wesleyan                8   2   0  207   53  0.197   11  1.614   11  0.863   12  0.781   11 0.5668   10 0.5720   15    571  0.430  0.961  0.600
Brown                   7   3   1  175   57  0.687   12  1.582   12  0.804   11  0.844   13 0.5463   12 0.5586   14    579  0.146  0.792  0.895
Columbia                9   3   0  224   91  0.423   13  1.580   13  0.798   14  0.534   12 0.5532   21 0.4823    8    868  0.622  0.891  0.178
Michigan                8   2   0  176   43  0.321   14  1.452   14  0.544   13  0.606   15 0.5273   18 0.5163    7    943  0.238  0.627  0.585
Williams                9   4   0  160   93 -0.037   15  1.215   15  0.076   18  0.212   14 0.5364   14 0.5452   17    413  0.381  0.351  0.073
Army                    4   5   0   57  100  0.110   16  1.185   16  0.033   21 -0.207   23 0.4923   26 0.4280   26      0  0.379 -0.070 -0.344
Grinnell                7   2   1  129   38 -0.028   17  1.163   17 -0.009   16  0.273   16 0.5215   20 0.4830   13    663  0.009  0.121  0.424
Navy                    5   3   0   94   27  0.011   18  1.156   18 -0.021   15  0.354   20 0.5058   25 0.4280   24    127  0.049  0.231  0.476
Indiana                 6   2   0  133   33 -0.613   19  1.115   19 -0.103   22 -0.218   22 0.4959   17 0.5164   22    223  0.296 -0.151 -0.285
Beloit                  5   2   2  136   82 -0.243   20  1.077   21 -0.170   20 -0.158   18 0.5177   19 0.4912   16    500  0.303 -0.084 -0.231
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Minnesota               6   3   2  151   79 -0.228   21  1.058   20 -0.165   25 -0.272   26 0.4710   28 0.4021   18    409  0.051 -0.394 -0.151
Notre Dame              6   3   1  169   55 -0.169   22  0.903   22 -0.422   17  0.257   19 0.5176   13 0.5487   20    257  0.264  0.299  0.216
Bucknell                6   4   0  149  129 -0.185   23  0.871   23 -0.473   23 -0.227   17 0.5190   15 0.5267   21    233  0.727  0.231 -0.686
Massachusetts           7   3   0  136   66 -1.051   24  0.869   24 -0.477   33 -0.968   31 0.4293   37 0.3185   25     60  0.261 -0.929 -1.006
Iowa State              5   4   1  117   38 -0.151   25  0.841   25 -0.521   24 -0.249   35 0.4142   40 0.2912   19    345 -0.263 -0.580  0.081
Northwestern            7   6   0  144  177 -0.456   26  0.756   26 -0.649   29 -0.609   21 0.4996   16 0.5220   27      0  0.515 -0.353 -0.866
Syracuse                4   4   0   63   63 -0.287   27  0.743   27 -0.670   27 -0.468   28 0.4443   30 0.3868   28      0  0.178 -0.494 -0.441
Purdue                  4   4   1  100  122 -0.654   28  0.737   28 -0.680   34 -0.983   27 0.4462   23 0.4435   29      0  0.667 -0.583 -1.382
Dartmouth               2   7   0   70   95  0.363   29  0.720   29 -0.703   19 -0.092   34 0.4207   32 0.3751   30      0  0.237 -0.072 -0.111
Penn State              4   6   1  104  176  0.012   30  0.703   30 -0.739   26 -0.421   24 0.4738   24 0.4383   31      0  0.151 -0.468 -0.373
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tufts                   7   4   0  103   83 -0.967   31  0.679   32 -0.779   31 -0.628   25 0.4717   22 0.4650   32      0  0.002 -0.784 -0.471
Holy Cross              5   5   0  135   81 -0.554   32  0.672   31 -0.764   28 -0.516   29 0.4387   27 0.4086   33      0  0.408 -0.354 -0.677
Amherst                 4   7   1   72  193 -0.747   33  0.581   33 -0.910   36 -1.246   32 0.4263   31 0.3837   34      0 -0.021 -1.418 -1.073
Dickinson               6   6   1  184  108 -0.508   34  0.560   34 -0.944   30 -0.618   36 0.4142   39 0.3011   23    183  0.552 -0.327 -0.908
Trinity (Connecticut)   3   5   1   61  161 -0.778   35  0.540   35 -0.972   38 -1.425   33 0.4215   33 0.3749   35      0  0.451 -1.226 -1.624
Illinois                3   5   1   40   96 -0.589   36  0.523   36 -1.000   35 -1.077   38 0.3765   36 0.3194   36      0 -0.897 -1.723 -0.431
Lake Forest             4   6   2   66  202 -0.983   37  0.335   37 -1.292   39 -1.823   37 0.3993   34 0.3521   37      0  0.191 -1.840 -1.807
Lehigh                  2   9   0   60  144  0.148   38  0.279   38 -1.379   32 -0.702   30 0.4300   29 0.3950   38      0 -0.392 -1.107 -0.297
Bowdoin                 2   6   0   41   96 -0.860   39  0.259   39 -1.415   37 -1.325   39 0.3420   38 0.3012   39      0  0.439 -1.136 -1.513
M.I.T.                  0   6   0   17  157 -0.866   40  0.000   40 -1.969   40 -1.872   40 0.3364   35 0.3470   40      0  0.769 -1.372 -2.372
UNRANKED               26 134   7  671 3513 -0.631      -1.000      -1.000      -1.538      0.3942      0.3659           0  0.606 -1.197 -1.879


Independent: strength=0.035 (#1)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Princeton              12   1   0  185   21  1.029    1  2.209    1  1.987    3  1.669    1 0.6723    1 0.6814    1   1232 -0.204  1.376  1.963
Harvard                10   0   1  210   10  0.897    2  2.179    2  1.933    2  1.882    2 0.6458    3 0.6443    2   1212 -0.237  1.568  2.197
Lafayette              12   1   0  253   23  0.757    4  2.041    4  1.690    7  1.387    3 0.6403    4 0.6297    4   1084 -0.481  0.934  1.841
Iowa                    8   0   1  223    5  0.673    5  1.943    5  1.480    6  1.415    7 0.5932    5 0.6059    6   1006 -0.245  1.096  1.735
Carlisle                9   2   0  383   46  1.159    6  1.838    6  1.257    4  1.547    5 0.6054    6 0.6006    5   1064  0.953  2.241  0.853
Pennsylvania            8   3   2  268   81  0.982    7  1.811    7  1.231    8  1.380    8 0.5911    8 0.5790   12    694  0.776  1.888  0.873
Yale                    7   2   1  191   16  0.842    8  1.783    8  1.186    5  1.521    9 0.5884   11 0.5715   11    786 -0.315  1.160  1.883
Cornell                 7   3   0  134   52  0.920    9  1.732    9  1.097   10  1.119    6 0.5958    7 0.5863    9    825  0.256  1.154  1.084
Wesleyan                8   2   0  207   53  0.197   11  1.614   11  0.863   12  0.781   11 0.5668   10 0.5720   15    571  0.430  0.961  0.600
Brown                   7   3   1  175   57  0.687   12  1.582   12  0.804   11  0.844   13 0.5463   12 0.5586   14    579  0.146  0.792  0.895
Columbia                9   3   0  224   91  0.423   13  1.580   13  0.798   14  0.534   12 0.5532   21 0.4823    8    868  0.622  0.891  0.178
Williams                9   4   0  160   93 -0.037   15  1.215   15  0.076   18  0.212   14 0.5364   14 0.5452   17    413  0.381  0.351  0.073
Army                    4   5   0   57  100  0.110   16  1.185   16  0.033   21 -0.207   23 0.4923   26 0.4280   26      0  0.379 -0.070 -0.344
Grinnell                7   2   1  129   38 -0.028   17  1.163   17 -0.009   16  0.273   16 0.5215   20 0.4830   13    663  0.009  0.121  0.424
Navy                    5   3   0   94   27  0.011   18  1.156   18 -0.021   15  0.354   20 0.5058   25 0.4280   24    127  0.049  0.231  0.476
Indiana                 6   2   0  133   33 -0.613   19  1.115   19 -0.103   22 -0.218   22 0.4959   17 0.5164   22    223  0.296 -0.151 -0.285
Beloit                  5   2   2  136   82 -0.243   20  1.077   21 -0.170   20 -0.158   18 0.5177   19 0.4912   16    500  0.303 -0.084 -0.231
Notre Dame              6   3   1  169   55 -0.169   22  0.903   22 -0.422   17  0.257   19 0.5176   13 0.5487   20    257  0.264  0.299  0.216
Bucknell                6   4   0  149  129 -0.185   23  0.871   23 -0.473   23 -0.227   17 0.5190   15 0.5267   21    233  0.727  0.231 -0.686
Massachusetts           7   3   0  136   66 -1.051   24  0.869   24 -0.477   33 -0.968   31 0.4293   37 0.3185   25     60  0.261 -0.929 -1.006
Iowa State              5   4   1  117   38 -0.151   25  0.841   25 -0.521   24 -0.249   35 0.4142   40 0.2912   19    345 -0.263 -0.580  0.081
Syracuse                4   4   0   63   63 -0.287   27  0.743   27 -0.670   27 -0.468   28 0.4443   30 0.3868   28      0  0.178 -0.494 -0.441
Dartmouth               2   7   0   70   95  0.363   29  0.720   29 -0.703   19 -0.092   34 0.4207   32 0.3751   30      0  0.237 -0.072 -0.111
Penn State              4   6   1  104  176  0.012   30  0.703   30 -0.739   26 -0.421   24 0.4738   24 0.4383   31      0  0.151 -0.468 -0.373
Tufts                   7   4   0  103   83 -0.967   31  0.679   32 -0.779   31 -0.628   25 0.4717   22 0.4650   32      0  0.002 -0.784 -0.471
Holy Cross              5   5   0  135   81 -0.554   32  0.672   31 -0.764   28 -0.516   29 0.4387   27 0.4086   33      0  0.408 -0.354 -0.677
Amherst                 4   7   1   72  193 -0.747   33  0.581   33 -0.910   36 -1.246   32 0.4263   31 0.3837   34      0 -0.021 -1.418 -1.073
Dickinson               6   6   1  184  108 -0.508   34  0.560   34 -0.944   30 -0.618   36 0.4142   39 0.3011   23    183  0.552 -0.327 -0.908
Trinity (Connecticut)   3   5   1   61  161 -0.778   35  0.540   35 -0.972   38 -1.425   33 0.4215   33 0.3749   35      0  0.451 -1.226 -1.624
Lake Forest             4   6   2   66  202 -0.983   37  0.335   37 -1.292   39 -1.823   37 0.3993   34 0.3521   37      0  0.191 -1.840 -1.807
Lehigh                  2   9   0   60  144  0.148   38  0.279   38 -1.379   32 -0.702   30 0.4300   29 0.3950   38      0 -0.392 -1.107 -0.297
Bowdoin                 2   6   0   41   96 -0.860   39  0.259   39 -1.415   37 -1.325   39 0.3420   38 0.3012   39      0  0.439 -1.136 -1.513
M.I.T.                  0   6   0   17  157 -0.866   40  0.000   40 -1.969   40 -1.872   40 0.3364   35 0.3470   40      0  0.769 -1.372 -2.372

Western: strength=0.017 (#2)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Chicago                16   0   2  505   28  0.803    3  2.051    3  1.708    1  1.894    4 0.6327    2 0.6672    3   1152  0.408  2.056  1.732
Wisconsin               9   2   0  270   33  0.615   10  1.676   10  0.990    9  1.318   10 0.5786    9 0.5721   10    821  0.404  1.476  1.160
Michigan                8   2   0  176   43  0.321   14  1.452   14  0.544   13  0.606   15 0.5273   18 0.5163    7    943  0.238  0.627  0.585
Minnesota               6   3   2  151   79 -0.228   21  1.058   20 -0.165   25 -0.272   26 0.4710   28 0.4021   18    409  0.051 -0.394 -0.151
Northwestern            7   6   0  144  177 -0.456   26  0.756   26 -0.649   29 -0.609   21 0.4996   16 0.5220   27      0  0.515 -0.353 -0.866
Purdue                  4   4   1  100  122 -0.654   28  0.737   28 -0.680   34 -0.983   27 0.4462   23 0.4435   29      0  0.667 -0.583 -1.382
Illinois                3   5   1   40   96 -0.589   36  0.523   36 -1.000   35 -1.077   38 0.3765   36 0.3194   36      0 -0.897 -1.723 -0.431

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 200 123  17 0.613    1  0.035
Western      53  22   6 0.691    2  0.017

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.214 points in main ratings
     0.022 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:03 2007

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