Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                   12   0   0  336   10  0.719    1  1.975    1  1.858    1  2.238    1 0.6807    2 0.7060    1   1250  0.265  2.264  2.213
Harvard                10   1   0  205   44  0.698    2  1.765    2  1.530    5  1.452    2 0.6636    1 0.7105    4   1088  0.305  1.510  1.394
Pennsylvania           12   1   0  335   45  0.475    3  1.686    3  1.377    4  1.551    3 0.6362    4 0.6507    6    981  0.720  1.986  1.116
Wisconsin               8   1   0  300   11  0.851    4  1.619    4  1.257    2  2.002    5 0.6023    5 0.6455    3   1170  0.450  2.184  1.821
Iowa                    7   0   1  311   12  0.376    5  1.478    5  0.982    3  1.632    4 0.6150    3 0.6626    5   1062  0.671  2.019  1.245
Princeton               8   3   0  169   57  0.490    6  1.358    7  0.767    8  0.830    8 0.5904    9 0.5928   11    738  0.435  0.998  0.662
Cornell                10   2   0  167   55  0.123    7  1.351    6  0.794   15  0.309   10 0.5655   10 0.5870    8    904  0.031  0.156  0.461
Bowdoin                 7   2   0  189   59  0.262    8  1.292    8  0.674   13  0.347    9 0.5725    7 0.6121    9    820  0.360  0.451  0.244
Columbia                7   3   1  124   77  0.597    9  1.271    9  0.636   11  0.523    7 0.5906    8 0.6007   12    693 -0.007  0.343  0.702
Beloit                  7   1   2  253   23  0.505   10  1.216   11  0.542    7  0.846   18 0.5170   23 0.4739    7    965  0.201  0.820  0.872
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Lafayette               9   2   0  214   25  0.181   11  1.207   12  0.523    9  0.782   11 0.5602   11 0.5549   13    684  0.102  0.681  0.883
Minnesota              10   0   2  299   23  0.275   12  1.193   13  0.500    6  1.047    6 0.5947    6 0.6312    2   1180  0.382  1.170  0.925
Northwestern            7   2   3  112   49  0.217   13  1.172   10  0.547   18  0.268   19 0.5151   24 0.4714   15    530 -0.385 -0.150  0.686
Illinois                7   3   2  184   67  0.196   14  1.061   14  0.345   20  0.217   25 0.5004   21 0.4848   18    365 -0.312 -0.158  0.593
Brown                   7   3   1  145   67  0.049   15  1.021   16  0.279   14  0.333   12 0.5323   16 0.5061   21    260  0.357  0.434  0.231
Syracuse                7   2   1  208   60 -0.144   16  0.998   15  0.295   25 -0.034   16 0.5225   15 0.5070   17    467  0.208 -0.054 -0.014
Notre Dame              6   3   1  261   73  0.366   17  0.965   17  0.238   19  0.238   28 0.4707   26 0.4564   10    752  0.308  0.298  0.178
Chicago                 9   5   1  204  135  0.092   18  0.961   18  0.231   24 -0.008   27 0.4850   27 0.4553   20    345  0.358  0.095 -0.110
Physicians & Surgeons   1   3   0    6   16  0.936   19  0.906   19  0.134   10  0.559   29 0.4706   22 0.4836   28      0 -0.711 -0.024  1.142
Wesleyan                5   4   0   96   89 -0.050   20  0.894   20  0.105   22  0.104   13 0.5323   14 0.5158   29      0  0.445  0.281 -0.072
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Navy                    6   3   0  106   51 -0.146   21  0.857   21  0.037   23  0.057   20 0.5119   28 0.4514   25     51  0.417  0.209 -0.096
Michigan                7   2   1  117   55  0.068   22  0.852   22  0.029   16  0.303   15 0.5258   13 0.5271   16    515  0.218  0.291  0.316
Army                    7   3   1  109   68 -0.371   23  0.773   23 -0.098   27 -0.159   22 0.5090   29 0.4503   27      1  0.152 -0.222 -0.096
Indiana                 4   2   2  110   29  0.075   24  0.695   24 -0.222   21  0.126   26 0.4870   25 0.4684   22    175 -0.064 -0.094  0.345
Williams                6   4   1   64   70 -0.322   25  0.654   25 -0.286   31 -0.340   21 0.5107   17 0.5054   30      0 -0.138 -0.608 -0.072
Knox                    6   4   0  143   92 -0.297   26  0.650   26 -0.292   35 -0.615   38 0.4143   40 0.2802   19    357  0.614 -0.283 -0.947
Carlisle                6   4   1  207   92  0.720   27  0.640   27 -0.311   12  0.490   17 0.5222   12 0.5328   14    618  0.647  0.854  0.127
Drake                   6   3   0  129   45 -0.514   28  0.619   28 -0.348   26 -0.101   23 0.5067   19 0.5021   24    107 -0.426 -0.542  0.340
Dickinson               5   5   0  119   83 -0.136   29  0.598   29 -0.381   29 -0.332   34 0.4454   36 0.3472   31      0 -0.001 -0.507 -0.157
Trinity (Connecticut)   4   3   1   56   85 -0.354   30  0.592   30 -0.392   30 -0.338   24 0.5039   20 0.4900   32      0  0.114 -0.430 -0.245
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Nebraska                7   1   2  129   20 -0.519   31  0.576   31 -0.420   17  0.273   14 0.5260   18 0.5053   23    154  0.365  0.381  0.165
Grinnell                3   6   0   35  195 -0.227   32  0.450   32 -0.492   39 -0.968   32 0.4509   30 0.4399   33      0  0.490 -0.751 -1.185
Purdue                  4   4   0  172   79 -0.210   33  0.412   33 -0.568   32 -0.374   41 0.3814   39 0.2871   26     18  1.028  0.386 -1.135
Lehigh                  5   6   0   79  172 -0.231   34  0.379   34 -0.627   36 -0.648   31 0.4566   34 0.3634   34      0  0.519 -0.404 -0.891
Amherst                 4   7   1  109  105 -0.322   35  0.319   35 -0.719   34 -0.463   35 0.4434   32 0.4097   35      0 -0.003 -0.640 -0.286
Tufts                   3   6   1   82   95 -0.265   36  0.276   38 -0.801   33 -0.379   36 0.4358   35 0.3606   36      0  0.130 -0.459 -0.299
Holy Cross              5   4   1   55   72 -0.906   37  0.260   36 -0.751   40 -0.994   37 0.4229   37 0.3469   37      0 -0.007 -1.174 -0.814
Penn State              4   6   1   84  144 -0.326   38  0.241   37 -0.779   38 -0.774   33 0.4477   33 0.3974   38      0  0.333 -0.693 -0.856
Massachusetts           5   5   0  107   80 -0.786   39  0.221   39 -0.811   41 -1.165   40 0.3832   42 0.2684   39      0  0.072 -1.288 -1.042
M.I.T.                  0   3   1    0   56 -0.704   40  0.195   40 -0.852   43 -1.372   43 0.3493   41 0.2758   40      0 -0.067 -1.593 -1.151
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Dartmouth               2   4   2   38   68  0.099   41  0.182   41 -0.879   28 -0.212   30 0.4568   31 0.4295   41      0  0.269 -0.184 -0.241
Iowa State              2   5   1   38  100 -0.830   42  0.034   42 -1.122   42 -1.316   39 0.3852   38 0.3099   42      0  0.333 -1.235 -1.397
Bucknell                3   5   1  126   71 -0.639   43  0.000   43 -1.176   37 -0.663   42 0.3722   43 0.2479   43      0  0.393 -0.531 -0.795
UNRANKED                8 132  11  269 3677 -0.424      -1.000      -1.000      -1.777      0.3776      0.3331           0  0.206 -1.799 -1.755


Independent: strength=-0.066 (#2)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                   12   0   0  336   10  0.719    1  1.975    1  1.858    1  2.238    1 0.6807    2 0.7060    1   1250  0.265  2.264  2.213
Harvard                10   1   0  205   44  0.698    2  1.765    2  1.530    5  1.452    2 0.6636    1 0.7105    4   1088  0.305  1.510  1.394
Pennsylvania           12   1   0  335   45  0.475    3  1.686    3  1.377    4  1.551    3 0.6362    4 0.6507    6    981  0.720  1.986  1.116
Princeton               8   3   0  169   57  0.490    6  1.358    7  0.767    8  0.830    8 0.5904    9 0.5928   11    738  0.435  0.998  0.662
Cornell                10   2   0  167   55  0.123    7  1.351    6  0.794   15  0.309   10 0.5655   10 0.5870    8    904  0.031  0.156  0.461
Bowdoin                 7   2   0  189   59  0.262    8  1.292    8  0.674   13  0.347    9 0.5725    7 0.6121    9    820  0.360  0.451  0.244
Columbia                7   3   1  124   77  0.597    9  1.271    9  0.636   11  0.523    7 0.5906    8 0.6007   12    693 -0.007  0.343  0.702
Beloit                  7   1   2  253   23  0.505   10  1.216   11  0.542    7  0.846   18 0.5170   23 0.4739    7    965  0.201  0.820  0.872
Lafayette               9   2   0  214   25  0.181   11  1.207   12  0.523    9  0.782   11 0.5602   11 0.5549   13    684  0.102  0.681  0.883
Brown                   7   3   1  145   67  0.049   15  1.021   16  0.279   14  0.333   12 0.5323   16 0.5061   21    260  0.357  0.434  0.231
Syracuse                7   2   1  208   60 -0.144   16  0.998   15  0.295   25 -0.034   16 0.5225   15 0.5070   17    467  0.208 -0.054 -0.014
Notre Dame              6   3   1  261   73  0.366   17  0.965   17  0.238   19  0.238   28 0.4707   26 0.4564   10    752  0.308  0.298  0.178
Physicians & Surgeons   1   3   0    6   16  0.936   19  0.906   19  0.134   10  0.559   29 0.4706   22 0.4836   28      0 -0.711 -0.024  1.142
Wesleyan                5   4   0   96   89 -0.050   20  0.894   20  0.105   22  0.104   13 0.5323   14 0.5158   29      0  0.445  0.281 -0.072
Navy                    6   3   0  106   51 -0.146   21  0.857   21  0.037   23  0.057   20 0.5119   28 0.4514   25     51  0.417  0.209 -0.096
Army                    7   3   1  109   68 -0.371   23  0.773   23 -0.098   27 -0.159   22 0.5090   29 0.4503   27      1  0.152 -0.222 -0.096
Williams                6   4   1   64   70 -0.322   25  0.654   25 -0.286   31 -0.340   21 0.5107   17 0.5054   30      0 -0.138 -0.608 -0.072
Knox                    6   4   0  143   92 -0.297   26  0.650   26 -0.292   35 -0.615   38 0.4143   40 0.2802   19    357  0.614 -0.283 -0.947
Carlisle                6   4   1  207   92  0.720   27  0.640   27 -0.311   12  0.490   17 0.5222   12 0.5328   14    618  0.647  0.854  0.127
Drake                   6   3   0  129   45 -0.514   28  0.619   28 -0.348   26 -0.101   23 0.5067   19 0.5021   24    107 -0.426 -0.542  0.340
Dickinson               5   5   0  119   83 -0.136   29  0.598   29 -0.381   29 -0.332   34 0.4454   36 0.3472   31      0 -0.001 -0.507 -0.157
Trinity (Connecticut)   4   3   1   56   85 -0.354   30  0.592   30 -0.392   30 -0.338   24 0.5039   20 0.4900   32      0  0.114 -0.430 -0.245
Nebraska                7   1   2  129   20 -0.519   31  0.576   31 -0.420   17  0.273   14 0.5260   18 0.5053   23    154  0.365  0.381  0.165
Grinnell                3   6   0   35  195 -0.227   32  0.450   32 -0.492   39 -0.968   32 0.4509   30 0.4399   33      0  0.490 -0.751 -1.185
Lehigh                  5   6   0   79  172 -0.231   34  0.379   34 -0.627   36 -0.648   31 0.4566   34 0.3634   34      0  0.519 -0.404 -0.891
Amherst                 4   7   1  109  105 -0.322   35  0.319   35 -0.719   34 -0.463   35 0.4434   32 0.4097   35      0 -0.003 -0.640 -0.286
Tufts                   3   6   1   82   95 -0.265   36  0.276   38 -0.801   33 -0.379   36 0.4358   35 0.3606   36      0  0.130 -0.459 -0.299
Holy Cross              5   4   1   55   72 -0.906   37  0.260   36 -0.751   40 -0.994   37 0.4229   37 0.3469   37      0 -0.007 -1.174 -0.814
Penn State              4   6   1   84  144 -0.326   38  0.241   37 -0.779   38 -0.774   33 0.4477   33 0.3974   38      0  0.333 -0.693 -0.856
Massachusetts           5   5   0  107   80 -0.786   39  0.221   39 -0.811   41 -1.165   40 0.3832   42 0.2684   39      0  0.072 -1.288 -1.042
M.I.T.                  0   3   1    0   56 -0.704   40  0.195   40 -0.852   43 -1.372   43 0.3493   41 0.2758   40      0 -0.067 -1.593 -1.151
Dartmouth               2   4   2   38   68  0.099   41  0.182   41 -0.879   28 -0.212   30 0.4568   31 0.4295   41      0  0.269 -0.184 -0.241
Iowa State              2   5   1   38  100 -0.830   42  0.034   42 -1.122   42 -1.316   39 0.3852   38 0.3099   42      0  0.333 -1.235 -1.397
Bucknell                3   5   1  126   71 -0.639   43  0.000   43 -1.176   37 -0.663   42 0.3722   43 0.2479   43      0  0.393 -0.531 -0.795

Western: strength=0.593 (#1)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Wisconsin               8   1   0  300   11  0.851    4  1.619    4  1.257    2  2.002    5 0.6023    5 0.6455    3   1170  0.450  2.184  1.821
Iowa                    7   0   1  311   12  0.376    5  1.478    5  0.982    3  1.632    4 0.6150    3 0.6626    5   1062  0.671  2.019  1.245
Minnesota              10   0   2  299   23  0.275   12  1.193   13  0.500    6  1.047    6 0.5947    6 0.6312    2   1180  0.382  1.170  0.925
Northwestern            7   2   3  112   49  0.217   13  1.172   10  0.547   18  0.268   19 0.5151   24 0.4714   15    530 -0.385 -0.150  0.686
Illinois                7   3   2  184   67  0.196   14  1.061   14  0.345   20  0.217   25 0.5004   21 0.4848   18    365 -0.312 -0.158  0.593
Chicago                 9   5   1  204  135  0.092   18  0.961   18  0.231   24 -0.008   27 0.4850   27 0.4553   20    345  0.358  0.095 -0.110
Michigan                7   2   1  117   55  0.068   22  0.852   22  0.029   16  0.303   15 0.5258   13 0.5271   16    515  0.218  0.291  0.316
Indiana                 4   2   2  110   29  0.075   24  0.695   24 -0.222   21  0.126   26 0.4870   25 0.4684   22    175 -0.064 -0.094  0.345
Purdue                  4   4   0  172   79 -0.210   33  0.412   33 -0.568   32 -0.374   41 0.3814   39 0.2871   26     18  1.028  0.386 -1.135

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Western      63  19  12 0.734    1  0.593
Independent 197 117  21 0.619    2 -0.066

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.357 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:03 2007

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