Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       38 21 295 210 -0.004 28.749    1  0.198    1  0.202    2  0.214    1 0.5356   12  0.537    4  0.293   10  0.135   24 -0.202
METS         36 22 255 190  0.002 28.451    2  0.167    2  0.170    5  0.169    3 0.5280   26  0.187   21 -0.048    1  0.387   18 -0.104
DODGERS      36 22 340 256 -0.000 28.304    3  0.166    3  0.167    4  0.195    2 0.5283   11  0.608    2  0.341   13  0.049    5  0.284
CUBS         36 22 334 241 -0.008 28.129    4  0.165    4  0.165    3  0.206    5 0.5260    1  0.760    1  0.503   20 -0.090   19 -0.114
YANKEES      35 22 312 218 -0.012 27.599    5  0.149    5  0.150    1  0.229    4 0.5274   13  0.534    3  0.305    9  0.152    8  0.144
PHILLIES     36 22 279 254 -0.043 27.546    6  0.148    6  0.148   11  0.056    6 0.5238   20  0.361   19 -0.020   11  0.132    4  0.350
CARDINALS    33 25 272 235  0.033 29.300    7  0.119    7  0.114    6  0.123    7 0.5210    9  0.621    6  0.282   18 -0.036   23 -0.191
PADRES       32 24 236 222 -0.041 26.734    8  0.081    8  0.077   16  0.008   10 0.5121   17  0.443   18  0.003   16  0.014   27 -0.285
GIANTS       32 26 244 204  0.005 28.615    9  0.079    9  0.074    7  0.091    9 0.5137   25  0.193   23 -0.122    2  0.304   13  0.035
TWINS        31 26 232 201  0.000 28.083   10  0.068   11  0.062    8  0.077   11 0.5113   21  0.322   20 -0.031    7  0.186   17 -0.063
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS    31 26 231 249  0.013 28.497   11  0.066   10  0.068   21 -0.023    8 0.5141   10  0.616   10  0.130   21 -0.177   28 -0.320
ASTROS       31 27 238 224  0.020 29.066   12  0.058   12  0.060   10  0.063   12 0.5103   18  0.434   16  0.050   12  0.076   11  0.048
MARINERS     31 26 261 254 -0.028 27.514   13  0.039   14  0.044   18 -0.002   13 0.5080   14  0.533   14  0.074   19 -0.077   16 -0.027
ROYALS       31 28 194 200  0.013 29.471   14  0.039   13  0.044   19 -0.004   14 0.5056   29  0.065   27 -0.312    3  0.303   21 -0.123
BREWERS      31 28 269 254  0.008 29.286   15  0.036   15  0.039   12  0.039   15 0.5045    4  0.714    5  0.289   24 -0.211   30 -0.484
RAYS         30 28 256 214 -0.019 28.124   16  0.017   17  0.013    9  0.067   17 0.5001   16  0.473   13  0.088   14  0.046   20 -0.119
BLUE JAYS    30 28 240 249 -0.015 28.341   17  0.012   16  0.016   20 -0.020   16 0.5034   27  0.145   25 -0.270    6  0.229    2  0.419
DIAMONDBACKS 27 31 293 305  0.060 30.024   18 -0.012   18 -0.015   15  0.026   18 0.4962    6  0.689    7  0.252   23 -0.199    7  0.177
REDS         29 30 270 236 -0.032 28.354   19 -0.023   19 -0.029   13  0.034   21 0.4936   15  0.488   15  0.069   17 -0.000   12  0.042
BRAVES       27 30 235 220  0.005 28.236   20 -0.027   20 -0.035   14  0.031   19 0.4948   22  0.281   22 -0.112    8  0.174   22 -0.164
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NATIONALS    28 30 264 299 -0.024 28.225   21 -0.038   21 -0.037   23 -0.108   20 0.4948    8  0.677   12  0.105   27 -0.321   14  0.020
RANGERS      28 31 196 200 -0.013 28.899   22 -0.043   22 -0.042   22 -0.024   23 0.4899   28  0.113   26 -0.296    4  0.249   29 -0.351
ANGELS       26 31 233 288  0.011 28.610   23 -0.058   23 -0.054   25 -0.147   22 0.4927    3  0.722   11  0.112   28 -0.405   26 -0.237
RED SOX      28 32 280 269 -0.019 29.195   24 -0.061   24 -0.058   17  0.001   24 0.4880    7  0.680    8  0.216   25 -0.215    9  0.123
MARLINS      23 33 230 307  0.034 28.651   25 -0.110   25 -0.104   27 -0.159   25 0.4813    2  0.753    9  0.131   29 -0.448   25 -0.210
PIRATES      22 37 190 246  0.059 30.678   26 -0.153   26 -0.147   24 -0.118   26 0.4763   30  0.005   29 -0.469    5  0.233   10  0.109
ATHLETICS    23 36 249 355 -0.020 29.015   27 -0.173   27 -0.166   29 -0.225   27 0.4718    5  0.701   17  0.012   30 -0.461    6  0.215
ORIOLES      21 36 219 313  0.014 28.701   28 -0.182   28 -0.175   28 -0.213   28 0.4703   19  0.409   24 -0.248   22 -0.178    3  0.376
WHITE SOX    18 40 199 250 -0.009 28.671   29 -0.262   29 -0.273   26 -0.157   29 0.4540   23  0.216   28 -0.352   15  0.037   15  0.015
ROCKIES       9 49 181 364  0.062 30.641   30 -0.466   30 -0.467   30 -0.440   30 0.4239   24  0.214   30 -0.636   26 -0.244    1  0.635

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      36 22 340 256 -0.000 28.304    3  0.166    3  0.167    4  0.195    2 0.5283   11  0.608    2  0.341   13  0.049    5  0.284
PADRES       32 24 236 222 -0.041 26.734    8  0.081    8  0.077   16  0.008   10 0.5121   17  0.443   18  0.003   16  0.014   27 -0.285
GIANTS       32 26 244 204  0.005 28.615    9  0.079    9  0.074    7  0.091    9 0.5137   25  0.193   23 -0.122    2  0.304   13  0.035
DIAMONDBACKS 27 31 293 305  0.060 30.024   18 -0.012   18 -0.015   15  0.026   18 0.4962    6  0.689    7  0.252   23 -0.199    7  0.177
ROCKIES       9 49 181 364  0.062 30.641   30 -0.466   30 -0.467   30 -0.440   30 0.4239   24  0.214   30 -0.636   26 -0.244    1  0.635

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         36 22 334 241 -0.008 28.129    4  0.165    4  0.165    3  0.206    5 0.5260    1  0.760    1  0.503   20 -0.090   19 -0.114
CARDINALS    33 25 272 235  0.033 29.300    7  0.119    7  0.114    6  0.123    7 0.5210    9  0.621    6  0.282   18 -0.036   23 -0.191
BREWERS      31 28 269 254  0.008 29.286   15  0.036   15  0.039   12  0.039   15 0.5045    4  0.714    5  0.289   24 -0.211   30 -0.484
REDS         29 30 270 236 -0.032 28.354   19 -0.023   19 -0.029   13  0.034   21 0.4936   15  0.488   15  0.069   17 -0.000   12  0.042
PIRATES      22 37 190 246  0.059 30.678   26 -0.153   26 -0.147   24 -0.118   26 0.4763   30  0.005   29 -0.469    5  0.233   10  0.109

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         36 22 255 190  0.002 28.451    2  0.167    2  0.170    5  0.169    3 0.5280   26  0.187   21 -0.048    1  0.387   18 -0.104
PHILLIES     36 22 279 254 -0.043 27.546    6  0.148    6  0.148   11  0.056    6 0.5238   20  0.361   19 -0.020   11  0.132    4  0.350
BRAVES       27 30 235 220  0.005 28.236   20 -0.027   20 -0.035   14  0.031   19 0.4948   22  0.281   22 -0.112    8  0.174   22 -0.164
NATIONALS    28 30 264 299 -0.024 28.225   21 -0.038   21 -0.037   23 -0.108   20 0.4948    8  0.677   12  0.105   27 -0.321   14  0.020
MARLINS      23 33 230 307  0.034 28.651   25 -0.110   25 -0.104   27 -0.159   25 0.4813    2  0.753    9  0.131   29 -0.448   25 -0.210

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       31 27 238 224  0.020 29.066   12  0.058   12  0.060   10  0.063   12 0.5103   18  0.434   16  0.050   12  0.076   11  0.048
MARINERS     31 26 261 254 -0.028 27.514   13  0.039   14  0.044   18 -0.002   13 0.5080   14  0.533   14  0.074   19 -0.077   16 -0.027
RANGERS      28 31 196 200 -0.013 28.899   22 -0.043   22 -0.042   22 -0.024   23 0.4899   28  0.113   26 -0.296    4  0.249   29 -0.351
ANGELS       26 31 233 288  0.011 28.610   23 -0.058   23 -0.054   25 -0.147   22 0.4927    3  0.722   11  0.112   28 -0.405   26 -0.237
ATHLETICS    23 36 249 355 -0.020 29.015   27 -0.173   27 -0.166   29 -0.225   27 0.4718    5  0.701   17  0.012   30 -0.461    6  0.215

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       38 21 295 210 -0.004 28.749    1  0.198    1  0.202    2  0.214    1 0.5356   12  0.537    4  0.293   10  0.135   24 -0.202
TWINS        31 26 232 201  0.000 28.083   10  0.068   11  0.062    8  0.077   11 0.5113   21  0.322   20 -0.031    7  0.186   17 -0.063
GUARDIANS    31 26 231 249  0.013 28.497   11  0.066   10  0.068   21 -0.023    8 0.5141   10  0.616   10  0.130   21 -0.177   28 -0.320
ROYALS       31 28 194 200  0.013 29.471   14  0.039   13  0.044   19 -0.004   14 0.5056   29  0.065   27 -0.312    3  0.303   21 -0.123
WHITE SOX    18 40 199 250 -0.009 28.671   29 -0.262   29 -0.273   26 -0.157   29 0.4540   23  0.216   28 -0.352   15  0.037   15  0.015

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      35 22 312 218 -0.012 27.599    5  0.149    5  0.150    1  0.229    4 0.5274   13  0.534    3  0.305    9  0.152    8  0.144
RAYS         30 28 256 214 -0.019 28.124   16  0.017   17  0.013    9  0.067   17 0.5001   16  0.473   13  0.088   14  0.046   20 -0.119
BLUE JAYS    30 28 240 249 -0.015 28.341   17  0.012   16  0.016   20 -0.020   16 0.5034   27  0.145   25 -0.270    6  0.229    2  0.419
RED SOX      28 32 280 269 -0.019 29.195   24 -0.061   24 -0.058   17  0.001   24 0.4880    7  0.680    8  0.216   25 -0.215    9  0.123
ORIOLES      21 36 219 313  0.014 28.701   28 -0.182   28 -0.175   28 -0.213   28 0.4703   19  0.409   24 -0.248   22 -0.178    3  0.376

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 151 142 0.515    1  0.087
AL CENTRAL 149 141 0.514    2  0.032
AL EAST    144 146 0.497    3  0.019
NL EAST    150 137 0.523    4 -0.003
NL WEST    136 152 0.472    5 -0.029
AL WEST    139 151 0.479    6 -0.101

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.086 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Jun  1 05:30:05 2025
games through: Sat May 31 2025

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