Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS    105  62 826 681  0.043 86.154    1  0.249    1  0.284    4  0.220    1 0.5332   29  0.338   13  0.048    1  0.392    5  0.220
ANGELS       110  68 952 725  0.037 91.312    2  0.243    2  0.262    1  0.264    2 0.5313   17  0.540    3  0.269    3  0.259   16 -0.013
YANKEES      104  61 922 728  0.007 82.673    3  0.242    3  0.258    2  0.235    4 0.5293    2  0.676    1  0.370    8  0.101   17 -0.026
BRAVES       103  62 731 586 -0.019 81.282    4  0.234    4  0.224    6  0.173    3 0.5301   30  0.316   18 -0.018    2  0.364   19 -0.101
GIANTS       105  73 871 696  0.010 89.630    5  0.216    5  0.183    5  0.194    5 0.5261    5  0.636    2  0.290    9  0.098   28 -0.356
MARINERS      93  69 814 699  0.042 83.574    6  0.200    6  0.172    7  0.172    7 0.5200   10  0.588    5  0.222    6  0.123   23 -0.170
DIAMONDBACKS  98  67 825 694 -0.014 81.599    7  0.199    7  0.171    8  0.139    6 0.5239   23  0.457   11  0.069    4  0.209    7  0.187
CARDINALS    101  69 823 677 -0.047 81.882    8  0.164    8  0.146    9  0.127    9 0.5184   11  0.586    6  0.176   10  0.079   25 -0.217
RED SOX       93  69 859 665  0.003 80.978    9  0.158    9  0.143    3  0.226   10 0.5168   15  0.565    4  0.254    5  0.198   15 -0.013
DODGERS       92  70 713 643  0.002 81.217   10  0.126   10  0.130   10  0.073    8 0.5187   18  0.537   10  0.075   11  0.071   29 -0.391
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         98  73 807 767 -0.024 84.003   11  0.113   11  0.123   11  0.031   11 0.5129   21  0.500   16 -0.000   12  0.062   13  0.005
EXPOS         83  79 735 718 -0.022 79.850   12 -0.014   12  0.007   15 -0.001   12 0.5030   13  0.577   14  0.039   18 -0.040   18 -0.098
ASTROS        84  78 749 695 -0.043 78.417   13 -0.015   13  0.002   12  0.029   13 0.5005   24  0.438   21 -0.058    7  0.115   10  0.113
BLUE JAYS     78  84 813 828  0.037 83.617   14 -0.017   14 -0.008   14  0.021   15 0.4969    4  0.667    8  0.148   23 -0.106   12  0.060
PHILLIES      80  81 710 724 -0.018 79.617   15 -0.020   15 -0.020   18 -0.030   14 0.4999    1  0.736    7  0.165   26 -0.226   30 -0.449
WHITE SOX     81  81 856 798 -0.038 78.734   16 -0.023   16 -0.030   13  0.024   17 0.4947    6  0.629    9  0.113   19 -0.065    6  0.205
MARLINS       79  83 699 763 -0.021 80.013   17 -0.028   17 -0.041   19 -0.091   16 0.4968    7  0.626   17 -0.004   25 -0.178   24 -0.190
REDS          78  84 709 774 -0.026 79.736   18 -0.036   18 -0.057   20 -0.099   19 0.4928   25  0.431   24 -0.192   15 -0.006    4  0.245
METS          75  86 690 703 -0.001 80.699   19 -0.041   19 -0.067   17 -0.021   18 0.4946    8  0.609   12  0.049   21 -0.091   26 -0.316
RANGERS       72  90 843 882  0.053 84.686   20 -0.042   20 -0.067   16 -0.004   21 0.4904   14  0.566   15  0.025   16 -0.034    3  0.493
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       73  89 778 898  0.020 82.769   21 -0.056   21 -0.079   22 -0.109   20 0.4925   20  0.507   22 -0.134   20 -0.084    2  0.565
INDIANS       74  88 739 837 -0.017 80.427   22 -0.078   22 -0.096   23 -0.118   22 0.4860   19  0.516   23 -0.135   22 -0.101    8  0.172
ORIOLES       67  95 667 773  0.049 84.716   23 -0.140   23 -0.128   24 -0.119   25 0.4813   26  0.402   27 -0.237   14 -0.001   14 -0.010
PIRATES       72  89 641 730 -0.036 78.689   24 -0.141   24 -0.128   25 -0.138   23 0.4837   28  0.347   28 -0.303   13  0.027    9  0.149
PADRES        66  96 662 815  0.022 82.879   25 -0.203   25 -0.163   26 -0.160   24 0.4821    3  0.673   19 -0.027   29 -0.293   27 -0.320
CUBS          67  95 706 759 -0.033 79.280   26 -0.229   26 -0.190   21 -0.101   26 0.4764    9  0.600   20 -0.039   24 -0.163   20 -0.116
ROYALS        62 100 737 891 -0.013 80.862   27 -0.249   27 -0.235   27 -0.188   27 0.4692   27  0.363   29 -0.340   17 -0.037    1  0.587
DEVIL RAYS    55 106 673 918  0.054 84.782   28 -0.258   28 -0.267   28 -0.247   28 0.4647   16  0.551   26 -0.232   27 -0.262   11  0.099
TIGERS        55 106 575 864  0.008 81.967   29 -0.273   29 -0.301   30 -0.322   30 0.4607   22  0.472   30 -0.379   28 -0.266   21 -0.156
BREWERS       56 106 627 821 -0.013 80.828   30 -0.278   30 -0.309   29 -0.259   29 0.4624   12  0.582   25 -0.214   30 -0.303   22 -0.160
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       105  73 871 696  0.010 89.630    5  0.216    5  0.183    5  0.194    5 0.5261    5  0.636    2  0.290    9  0.098   28 -0.356
DIAMONDBACKS  98  67 825 694 -0.014 81.599    7  0.199    7  0.171    8  0.139    6 0.5239   23  0.457   11  0.069    4  0.209    7  0.187
DODGERS       92  70 713 643  0.002 81.217   10  0.126   10  0.130   10  0.073    8 0.5187   18  0.537   10  0.075   11  0.071   29 -0.391
ROCKIES       73  89 778 898  0.020 82.769   21 -0.056   21 -0.079   22 -0.109   20 0.4925   20  0.507   22 -0.134   20 -0.084    2  0.565
PADRES        66  96 662 815  0.022 82.879   25 -0.203   25 -0.163   26 -0.160   24 0.4821    3  0.673   19 -0.027   29 -0.293   27 -0.320

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS    101  69 823 677 -0.047 81.882    8  0.164    8  0.146    9  0.127    9 0.5184   11  0.586    6  0.176   10  0.079   25 -0.217
ASTROS        84  78 749 695 -0.043 78.417   13 -0.015   13  0.002   12  0.029   13 0.5005   24  0.438   21 -0.058    7  0.115   10  0.113
REDS          78  84 709 774 -0.026 79.736   18 -0.036   18 -0.057   20 -0.099   19 0.4928   25  0.431   24 -0.192   15 -0.006    4  0.245
PIRATES       72  89 641 730 -0.036 78.689   24 -0.141   24 -0.128   25 -0.138   23 0.4837   28  0.347   28 -0.303   13  0.027    9  0.149
CUBS          67  95 706 759 -0.033 79.280   26 -0.229   26 -0.190   21 -0.101   26 0.4764    9  0.600   20 -0.039   24 -0.163   20 -0.116
BREWERS       56 106 627 821 -0.013 80.828   30 -0.278   30 -0.309   29 -0.259   29 0.4624   12  0.582   25 -0.214   30 -0.303   22 -0.160

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       103  62 731 586 -0.019 81.282    4  0.234    4  0.224    6  0.173    3 0.5301   30  0.316   18 -0.018    2  0.364   19 -0.101
EXPOS         83  79 735 718 -0.022 79.850   12 -0.014   12  0.007   15 -0.001   12 0.5030   13  0.577   14  0.039   18 -0.040   18 -0.098
PHILLIES      80  81 710 724 -0.018 79.617   15 -0.020   15 -0.020   18 -0.030   14 0.4999    1  0.736    7  0.165   26 -0.226   30 -0.449
MARLINS       79  83 699 763 -0.021 80.013   17 -0.028   17 -0.041   19 -0.091   16 0.4968    7  0.626   17 -0.004   25 -0.178   24 -0.190
METS          75  86 690 703 -0.001 80.699   19 -0.041   19 -0.067   17 -0.021   18 0.4946    8  0.609   12  0.049   21 -0.091   26 -0.316

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS    105  62 826 681  0.043 86.154    1  0.249    1  0.284    4  0.220    1 0.5332   29  0.338   13  0.048    1  0.392    5  0.220
ANGELS       110  68 952 725  0.037 91.312    2  0.243    2  0.262    1  0.264    2 0.5313   17  0.540    3  0.269    3  0.259   16 -0.013
MARINERS      93  69 814 699  0.042 83.574    6  0.200    6  0.172    7  0.172    7 0.5200   10  0.588    5  0.222    6  0.123   23 -0.170
RANGERS       72  90 843 882  0.053 84.686   20 -0.042   20 -0.067   16 -0.004   21 0.4904   14  0.566   15  0.025   16 -0.034    3  0.493

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         98  73 807 767 -0.024 84.003   11  0.113   11  0.123   11  0.031   11 0.5129   21  0.500   16 -0.000   12  0.062   13  0.005
WHITE SOX     81  81 856 798 -0.038 78.734   16 -0.023   16 -0.030   13  0.024   17 0.4947    6  0.629    9  0.113   19 -0.065    6  0.205
INDIANS       74  88 739 837 -0.017 80.427   22 -0.078   22 -0.096   23 -0.118   22 0.4860   19  0.516   23 -0.135   22 -0.101    8  0.172
ROYALS        62 100 737 891 -0.013 80.862   27 -0.249   27 -0.235   27 -0.188   27 0.4692   27  0.363   29 -0.340   17 -0.037    1  0.587
TIGERS        55 106 575 864  0.008 81.967   29 -0.273   29 -0.301   30 -0.322   30 0.4607   22  0.472   30 -0.379   28 -0.266   21 -0.156

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      104  61 922 728  0.007 82.673    3  0.242    3  0.258    2  0.235    4 0.5293    2  0.676    1  0.370    8  0.101   17 -0.026
RED SOX       93  69 859 665  0.003 80.978    9  0.158    9  0.143    3  0.226   10 0.5168   15  0.565    4  0.254    5  0.198   15 -0.013
BLUE JAYS     78  84 813 828  0.037 83.617   14 -0.017   14 -0.008   14  0.021   15 0.4969    4  0.667    8  0.148   23 -0.106   12  0.060
ORIOLES       67  95 667 773  0.049 84.716   23 -0.140   23 -0.128   24 -0.119   25 0.4813   26  0.402   27 -0.237   14 -0.001   14 -0.010
DEVIL RAYS    55 106 673 918  0.054 84.782   28 -0.258   28 -0.267   28 -0.247   28 0.4647   16  0.551   26 -0.232   27 -0.262   11  0.099

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    380 289 0.568    1  0.196
NL WEST    434 395 0.524    2  0.033
AL EAST    397 415 0.489    3  0.029
NL EAST    420 391 0.518    4  0.008
NL CENTRAL 458 521 0.468    5 -0.088
AL CENTRAL 370 448 0.452    6 -0.137

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.087 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:44:20 2020
games through: Sun Oct 27 2002

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