Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA           103  64  922  759  0.020 83.862    1  1.374    1  0.225    1  0.202    1 0.5332  0.809  0.455 -0.051 -0.119
NEW YORK YANKEES  110  69  943  767 -0.003 88.249    2  1.366    2  0.209    2  0.184    3 0.5245  0.635  0.261  0.106 -0.178
SAN FRANCISCO     101  64  771  658 -0.011 80.848    3  1.346    3  0.193    6  0.133    2 0.5284  0.427  0.018  0.247 -0.003
FLORIDA           102  77  828  771  0.043 91.674    4  1.283    4  0.159    9  0.103    4 0.5241  0.568  0.116  0.090 -0.197
OAKLAND            98  69  786  660 -0.002 82.350    5  1.266    5  0.155    3  0.150    5 0.5181  0.478  0.080  0.219 -0.274
BOSTON            101  73 1007  857  0.003 86.151    6  1.248    6  0.148    4  0.145    6 0.5165  0.729  0.316 -0.025  0.116
SEATTLE            93  69  795  637 -0.025 78.410    7  1.100    7  0.114    5  0.145    9 0.5125  0.461  0.060  0.230 -0.132
PHILADELPHIA       86  76  791  697  0.036 82.452    8  0.981    8  0.079    7  0.115    7 0.5145  0.637  0.194  0.036 -0.183
CHICAGO CUBS       94  80  785  738  0.002 86.285    9  0.960    9  0.073   12  0.064    8 0.5127  0.395 -0.079  0.206  0.018
MONTREAL           83  79  711  716  0.049 83.409   10  0.938   10  0.057   13  0.047   10 0.5107  0.150 -0.293  0.387  0.526
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON            87  75  805  677 -0.022 78.682   11  0.933   11  0.050    8  0.111   11 0.5100  0.398 -0.030  0.251  0.171
TORONTO            86  76  895  826 -0.010 79.516   12  0.930   12  0.047   10  0.070   15 0.5034  0.708  0.219 -0.079  0.174
MINNESOTA          91  75  807  774 -0.062 78.177   13  0.922   13  0.042   18 -0.010   16 0.5016  0.535 -0.028  0.008  0.065
ST LOUIS           85  77  876  796 -0.006 79.829   14  0.921   14  0.039   11  0.067   12 0.5083  0.799  0.310 -0.175 -0.099
LOS ANGELES        85  77  574  556 -0.010 79.598   15  0.918   15  0.036   15  0.026   13 0.5072  0.081 -0.364  0.416 -0.240
ARIZONA            84  78  717  685 -0.013 79.443   16  0.910   16  0.023   16  0.017   14 0.5060  0.206 -0.280  0.314  0.399
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  86  76  791  715 -0.055 76.698   17  0.907   17  0.015   14  0.034   17 0.4987  0.565  0.044  0.024 -0.083
KANSAS CITY        83  79  836  867 -0.051 77.159   18  0.891   18 -0.015   20 -0.053   18 0.4939  0.571 -0.037 -0.069  0.438
ANAHEIM            77  85  736  743  0.009 80.900   19  0.880   19 -0.037   17 -0.009   20 0.4922  0.669  0.101 -0.119 -0.317
PITTSBURGH         75  87  753  801  0.001 80.445   20  0.847   20 -0.066   19 -0.047   19 0.4937  0.599 -0.005 -0.089  0.006
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLORADO           74  88  853  892 -0.012 79.644   21  0.801   21 -0.086   21 -0.063   21 0.4910  0.721  0.099 -0.224  0.407
BALTIMORE          71  91  742  819  0.029 82.387   22  0.789   23 -0.090   23 -0.076   24 0.4848  0.634  0.000 -0.153 -0.174
TEXAS              71  91  826  969  0.031 82.554   23  0.783   22 -0.089   25 -0.136   25 0.4844  0.737  0.043 -0.315  0.341
NEW YORK METS      66  95  642  754  0.061 83.869   24  0.680   24 -0.118   22 -0.074   22 0.4878  0.423 -0.192  0.044 -0.017
CINCINNATI         69  93  694  886  0.017 81.612   25  0.643   25 -0.122   29 -0.201   23 0.4852  0.620 -0.138 -0.264  0.018
MILWAUKEE          68  94  714  873  0.012 81.299   26  0.600   26 -0.136   28 -0.178   26 0.4841  0.600 -0.134 -0.221  0.100
SAN DIEGO          64  98  678  831  0.021 81.900   27  0.480   27 -0.173   27 -0.153   27 0.4791  0.728  0.017 -0.323 -0.288
TAMPA BAY          63  99  715  853  0.032 82.632   28  0.473   28 -0.177   26 -0.139   28 0.4734  0.598 -0.097 -0.180 -0.066
CLEVELAND          68  94  699  778 -0.056 76.972   29  0.462   29 -0.183   24 -0.132   29 0.4719  0.564 -0.123 -0.141 -0.243
DETROIT            43 119  591  928 -0.008 80.324   30  0.000   30 -0.435   30 -0.404   30 0.4386  0.563 -0.396 -0.412 -0.165

NL WEST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN FRANCISCO     101  64  771  658 -0.011 80.848    3  1.346    3  0.193    6  0.133    2 0.5284  0.427  0.018  0.247 -0.003
LOS ANGELES        85  77  574  556 -0.010 79.598   15  0.918   15  0.036   15  0.026   13 0.5072  0.081 -0.364  0.416 -0.240
ARIZONA            84  78  717  685 -0.013 79.443   16  0.910   16  0.023   16  0.017   14 0.5060  0.206 -0.280  0.314  0.399
COLORADO           74  88  853  892 -0.012 79.644   21  0.801   21 -0.086   21 -0.063   21 0.4910  0.721  0.099 -0.224  0.407
SAN DIEGO          64  98  678  831  0.021 81.900   27  0.480   27 -0.173   27 -0.153   27 0.4791  0.728  0.017 -0.323 -0.288

NL CENTRAL
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO CUBS       94  80  785  738  0.002 86.285    9  0.960    9  0.073   12  0.064    8 0.5127  0.395 -0.079  0.206  0.018
HOUSTON            87  75  805  677 -0.022 78.682   11  0.933   11  0.050    8  0.111   11 0.5100  0.398 -0.030  0.251  0.171
ST LOUIS           85  77  876  796 -0.006 79.829   14  0.921   14  0.039   11  0.067   12 0.5083  0.799  0.310 -0.175 -0.099
PITTSBURGH         75  87  753  801  0.001 80.445   20  0.847   20 -0.066   19 -0.047   19 0.4937  0.599 -0.005 -0.089  0.006
CINCINNATI         69  93  694  886  0.017 81.612   25  0.643   25 -0.122   29 -0.201   23 0.4852  0.620 -0.138 -0.264  0.018
MILWAUKEE          68  94  714  873  0.012 81.299   26  0.600   26 -0.136   28 -0.178   26 0.4841  0.600 -0.134 -0.221  0.100

NL EAST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA           103  64  922  759  0.020 83.862    1  1.374    1  0.225    1  0.202    1 0.5332  0.809  0.455 -0.051 -0.119
FLORIDA           102  77  828  771  0.043 91.674    4  1.283    4  0.159    9  0.103    4 0.5241  0.568  0.116  0.090 -0.197
PHILADELPHIA       86  76  791  697  0.036 82.452    8  0.981    8  0.079    7  0.115    7 0.5145  0.637  0.194  0.036 -0.183
MONTREAL           83  79  711  716  0.049 83.409   10  0.938   10  0.057   13  0.047   10 0.5107  0.150 -0.293  0.387  0.526
NEW YORK METS      66  95  642  754  0.061 83.869   24  0.680   24 -0.118   22 -0.074   22 0.4878  0.423 -0.192  0.044 -0.017

AL WEST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND            98  69  786  660 -0.002 82.350    5  1.266    5  0.155    3  0.150    5 0.5181  0.478  0.080  0.219 -0.274
SEATTLE            93  69  795  637 -0.025 78.410    7  1.100    7  0.114    5  0.145    9 0.5125  0.461  0.060  0.230 -0.132
ANAHEIM            77  85  736  743  0.009 80.900   19  0.880   19 -0.037   17 -0.009   20 0.4922  0.669  0.101 -0.119 -0.317
TEXAS              71  91  826  969  0.031 82.554   23  0.783   22 -0.089   25 -0.136   25 0.4844  0.737  0.043 -0.315  0.341

AL CENTRAL
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA          91  75  807  774 -0.062 78.177   13  0.922   13  0.042   18 -0.010   16 0.5016  0.535 -0.028  0.008  0.065
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  86  76  791  715 -0.055 76.698   17  0.907   17  0.015   14  0.034   17 0.4987  0.565  0.044  0.024 -0.083
KANSAS CITY        83  79  836  867 -0.051 77.159   18  0.891   18 -0.015   20 -0.053   18 0.4939  0.571 -0.037 -0.069  0.438
CLEVELAND          68  94  699  778 -0.056 76.972   29  0.462   29 -0.183   24 -0.132   29 0.4719  0.564 -0.123 -0.141 -0.243
DETROIT            43 119  591  928 -0.008 80.324   30  0.000   30 -0.435   30 -0.404   30 0.4386  0.563 -0.396 -0.412 -0.165

AL EAST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW YORK YANKEES  110  69  943  767 -0.003 88.249    2  1.366    2  0.209    2  0.184    3 0.5245  0.635  0.261  0.106 -0.178
BOSTON            101  73 1007  857  0.003 86.151    6  1.248    6  0.148    4  0.145    6 0.5165  0.729  0.316 -0.025  0.116
TORONTO            86  76  895  826 -0.010 79.516   12  0.930   12  0.047   10  0.070   15 0.5034  0.708  0.219 -0.079  0.174
BALTIMORE          71  91  742  819  0.029 82.387   22  0.789   23 -0.090   23 -0.076   24 0.4848  0.634  0.000 -0.153 -0.174
TAMPA BAY          63  99  715  853  0.032 82.632   28  0.473   28 -0.177   26 -0.139   28 0.4734  0.598 -0.097 -0.180 -0.066

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL EAST    440 391 0.529    1  0.099
AL WEST    339 314 0.519    2  0.048
AL EAST    431 408 0.514    3  0.046
NL WEST    408 405 0.502    4 -0.010
NL CENTRAL 478 506 0.486    5 -0.038
AL CENTRAL 371 443 0.456    6 -0.141

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.077 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:23 2007
games through: Sat Oct 25 2003

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