Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 110  64   0 808 679  0.041 89.147    1  0.237    1  0.269    2  0.181    1 0.5340   28  0.350   16  0.021    1  0.341   12  0.048
N.Y. YANKEES       97  70   0 906 814  0.074 87.899    2  0.220    2  0.197    5  0.166    2 0.5242    6  0.722    2  0.350   16 -0.018   11  0.051
ANAHEIM            99  73   0 797 686  0.077 90.619    3  0.218    3  0.191    1  0.190    3 0.5237   19  0.454    5  0.120    4  0.260   25 -0.176
BOSTON             95  70   0 919 829  0.070 86.582    4  0.212    4  0.185    6  0.163    4 0.5232    2  0.779    1  0.405   18 -0.080   14  0.025
ST. LOUIS         105  66   0 842 667 -0.071 80.156    5  0.180    5  0.156    7  0.148    5 0.5220   23  0.415   12  0.043    5  0.252    8  0.105
CLEVELAND          93  69   0 790 642  0.019 81.604    6  0.159    6  0.145    4  0.172    6 0.5188   11  0.587    4  0.223   10  0.120   29 -0.293
OAKLAND            88  74   0 772 658  0.079 85.592    7  0.137    7  0.133    3  0.175    7 0.5161   26  0.394    9  0.052    2  0.297    9  0.092
ATLANTA            91  75   0 790 699 -0.031 80.464    8  0.019    8  0.063    9  0.093    8 0.5103   25  0.406   18 -0.020    7  0.205    4  0.210
PHILADELPHIA       88  74   0 807 726 -0.033 78.498    9  0.013    9  0.053   14  0.048    9 0.5085   15  0.520   14  0.038   12  0.059    3  0.253
MINNESOTA          83  79   0 688 662  0.045 83.462   10  0.012   10  0.053   12  0.057   11 0.5058   29  0.342   22 -0.109    6  0.223   16 -0.017
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON            96  80   1 754 666 -0.040 85.176   11  0.010   11  0.052   11  0.061   10 0.5079   30  0.292   24 -0.146    3  0.269   20 -0.051
TEXAS              79  83   0 865 858  0.091 86.519   12  0.008   12  0.042   10  0.077   12 0.5034    1  0.784    3  0.324   23 -0.171    6  0.141
TORONTO            80  82   0 775 705  0.063 84.554   13  0.006   13  0.034    8  0.117   13 0.5032   18  0.457   10  0.049    8  0.184   15  0.023
N.Y. METS          83  79   0 722 648 -0.023 79.112   14 -0.000   14  0.006   13  0.055   14 0.5028   24  0.414   19 -0.050    9  0.161   18 -0.032
FLORIDA            83  79   0 717 732 -0.031 78.738   15 -0.003   15 -0.000   18 -0.024   15 0.5010   10  0.607   11  0.047   19 -0.095   26 -0.181
WASHINGTON         81  81   0 639 673 -0.010 80.092   16 -0.004   16 -0.008   19 -0.043   16 0.4994   27  0.391   25 -0.168   11  0.082   27 -0.186
BALTIMORE          74  88   0 729 800  0.079 85.803   17 -0.007   17 -0.021   16 -0.004   19 0.4949    7  0.637    7  0.096   21 -0.104   28 -0.220
MILWAUKEE          81  81   0 726 697 -0.047 77.646   18 -0.010   18 -0.034   17 -0.022   17 0.4966   17  0.463   21 -0.084   13  0.039   13  0.037
CHICAGO CUBS       79  83   0 703 714 -0.035 78.455   19 -0.015   19 -0.048   20 -0.044   18 0.4951   20  0.447   23 -0.121   14  0.032   10  0.054
SEATTLE            69  93   0 699 751  0.092 86.640   20 -0.028   20 -0.067   15  0.002   21 0.4889   14  0.529   17 -0.000   15  0.004   22 -0.099
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT            71  91   0 723 787  0.045 83.737   21 -0.041   21 -0.078   21 -0.052   22 0.4888    8  0.627   13  0.039   22 -0.142   24 -0.126
SAN DIEGO          82  83   0 695 747 -0.106 75.415   22 -0.046   22 -0.082   25 -0.149   20 0.4912    9  0.620   20 -0.066   26 -0.232   30 -0.355
TAMPA BAY          67  95   0 750 936  0.097 87.133   23 -0.051   23 -0.085   22 -0.115   23 0.4860    4  0.770    6  0.118   29 -0.348   19 -0.044
CINCINNATI         73  89   1 820 889 -0.033 79.189   24 -0.094   24 -0.112   23 -0.117   24 0.4857    5  0.731    8  0.076   28 -0.310    2  0.264
ARIZONA            77  85   0 696 856 -0.108 74.067   25 -0.121   25 -0.122   29 -0.230   25 0.4855   12  0.581   27 -0.183   27 -0.276    5  0.147
SAN FRANCISCO      75  87   0 649 745 -0.110 73.901   26 -0.153   26 -0.144   27 -0.191   26 0.4826   21  0.426   30 -0.286   20 -0.096   17 -0.031
PITTSBURGH         67  95   0 680 769 -0.046 77.955   27 -0.204   27 -0.186   24 -0.138   28 0.4762   22  0.425   28 -0.234   17 -0.043    7  0.122
LOS ANGELES        71  91   0 685 755 -0.111 73.802   28 -0.207   28 -0.189   26 -0.184   27 0.4775   13  0.546   26 -0.170   24 -0.197   23 -0.122
KANSAS CITY        56 106   0 701 935  0.074 85.845   29 -0.222   29 -0.225   28 -0.205   30 0.4683    3  0.771   15  0.030   30 -0.439   21 -0.075
COLORADO           67  95   0 740 862 -0.110 73.917   30 -0.224   30 -0.232   30 -0.234   29 0.4712   16  0.495   29 -0.267   25 -0.201    1  0.436
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO          82  83   0 695 747 -0.106 75.415   22 -0.046   22 -0.082   25 -0.149   20 0.4912    9  0.620   20 -0.066   26 -0.232   30 -0.355
ARIZONA            77  85   0 696 856 -0.108 74.067   25 -0.121   25 -0.122   29 -0.230   25 0.4855   12  0.581   27 -0.183   27 -0.276    5  0.147
SAN FRANCISCO      75  87   0 649 745 -0.110 73.901   26 -0.153   26 -0.144   27 -0.191   26 0.4826   21  0.426   30 -0.286   20 -0.096   17 -0.031
LOS ANGELES        71  91   0 685 755 -0.111 73.802   28 -0.207   28 -0.189   26 -0.184   27 0.4775   13  0.546   26 -0.170   24 -0.197   23 -0.122
COLORADO           67  95   0 740 862 -0.110 73.917   30 -0.224   30 -0.232   30 -0.234   29 0.4712   16  0.495   29 -0.267   25 -0.201    1  0.436

NL CENTRAL
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS         105  66   0 842 667 -0.071 80.156    5  0.180    5  0.156    7  0.148    5 0.5220   23  0.415   12  0.043    5  0.252    8  0.105
HOUSTON            96  80   1 754 666 -0.040 85.176   11  0.010   11  0.052   11  0.061   10 0.5079   30  0.292   24 -0.146    3  0.269   20 -0.051
MILWAUKEE          81  81   0 726 697 -0.047 77.646   18 -0.010   18 -0.034   17 -0.022   17 0.4966   17  0.463   21 -0.084   13  0.039   13  0.037
CHICAGO CUBS       79  83   0 703 714 -0.035 78.455   19 -0.015   19 -0.048   20 -0.044   18 0.4951   20  0.447   23 -0.121   14  0.032   10  0.054
CINCINNATI         73  89   1 820 889 -0.033 79.189   24 -0.094   24 -0.112   23 -0.117   24 0.4857    5  0.731    8  0.076   28 -0.310    2  0.264
PITTSBURGH         67  95   0 680 769 -0.046 77.955   27 -0.204   27 -0.186   24 -0.138   28 0.4762   22  0.425   28 -0.234   17 -0.043    7  0.122

NL EAST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA            91  75   0 790 699 -0.031 80.464    8  0.019    8  0.063    9  0.093    8 0.5103   25  0.406   18 -0.020    7  0.205    4  0.210
PHILADELPHIA       88  74   0 807 726 -0.033 78.498    9  0.013    9  0.053   14  0.048    9 0.5085   15  0.520   14  0.038   12  0.059    3  0.253
N.Y. METS          83  79   0 722 648 -0.023 79.112   14 -0.000   14  0.006   13  0.055   14 0.5028   24  0.414   19 -0.050    9  0.161   18 -0.032
FLORIDA            83  79   0 717 732 -0.031 78.738   15 -0.003   15 -0.000   18 -0.024   15 0.5010   10  0.607   11  0.047   19 -0.095   26 -0.181
WASHINGTON         81  81   0 639 673 -0.010 80.092   16 -0.004   16 -0.008   19 -0.043   16 0.4994   27  0.391   25 -0.168   11  0.082   27 -0.186

AL WEST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM            99  73   0 797 686  0.077 90.619    3  0.218    3  0.191    1  0.190    3 0.5237   19  0.454    5  0.120    4  0.260   25 -0.176
OAKLAND            88  74   0 772 658  0.079 85.592    7  0.137    7  0.133    3  0.175    7 0.5161   26  0.394    9  0.052    2  0.297    9  0.092
TEXAS              79  83   0 865 858  0.091 86.519   12  0.008   12  0.042   10  0.077   12 0.5034    1  0.784    3  0.324   23 -0.171    6  0.141
SEATTLE            69  93   0 699 751  0.092 86.640   20 -0.028   20 -0.067   15  0.002   21 0.4889   14  0.529   17 -0.000   15  0.004   22 -0.099

AL CENTRAL
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 110  64   0 808 679  0.041 89.147    1  0.237    1  0.269    2  0.181    1 0.5340   28  0.350   16  0.021    1  0.341   12  0.048
CLEVELAND          93  69   0 790 642  0.019 81.604    6  0.159    6  0.145    4  0.172    6 0.5188   11  0.587    4  0.223   10  0.120   29 -0.293
MINNESOTA          83  79   0 688 662  0.045 83.462   10  0.012   10  0.053   12  0.057   11 0.5058   29  0.342   22 -0.109    6  0.223   16 -0.017
DETROIT            71  91   0 723 787  0.045 83.737   21 -0.041   21 -0.078   21 -0.052   22 0.4888    8  0.627   13  0.039   22 -0.142   24 -0.126
KANSAS CITY        56 106   0 701 935  0.074 85.845   29 -0.222   29 -0.225   28 -0.205   30 0.4683    3  0.771   15  0.030   30 -0.439   21 -0.075

AL EAST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. YANKEES       97  70   0 906 814  0.074 87.899    2  0.220    2  0.197    5  0.166    2 0.5242    6  0.722    2  0.350   16 -0.018   11  0.051
BOSTON             95  70   0 919 829  0.070 86.582    4  0.212    4  0.185    6  0.163    4 0.5232    2  0.779    1  0.405   18 -0.080   14  0.025
TORONTO            80  82   0 775 705  0.063 84.554   13  0.006   13  0.034    8  0.117   13 0.5032   18  0.457   10  0.049    8  0.184   15  0.023
BALTIMORE          74  88   0 729 800  0.079 85.803   17 -0.007   17 -0.021   16 -0.004   19 0.4949    7  0.637    7  0.096   21 -0.104   28 -0.220
TAMPA BAY          67  95   0 750 936  0.097 87.133   23 -0.051   23 -0.085   22 -0.115   23 0.4860    4  0.770    6  0.118   29 -0.348   19 -0.044

DIVISION     W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    335 323   0 0.509    1  0.140
AL EAST    413 405   0 0.505    2  0.083
AL CENTRAL 413 409   0 0.502    3  0.039
NL EAST    426 388   0 0.523    4  0.033
NL CENTRAL 501 494   2 0.504    5 -0.024
NL WEST    372 441   0 0.458    6 -0.250

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:45:36 2020
games through: Wed Oct 26 2005

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