Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT           103  72 877 720  0.073 92.453    1  0.214    1  0.197    1  0.217    1 0.5315   23  0.493    7  0.129    1  0.305   22 -0.102
N.Y. YANKEES       98  68 944 789  0.050 86.245    2  0.202    2  0.181    2  0.190    2 0.5307    1  0.838    1  0.442   21 -0.062   26 -0.219
MINNESOTA          96  69 808 699  0.071 87.141    3  0.201    3  0.181    3  0.160    3 0.5293   25  0.477   14  0.057    2  0.263   21 -0.101
OAKLAND            97  73 801 759  0.090 91.170    4  0.194    4  0.175    6  0.115    4 0.5288   18  0.556   11  0.084    3  0.146   24 -0.136
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  72 868 794  0.077 85.928    5  0.142    5  0.140    5  0.136    6 0.5232    7  0.677    3  0.222   11  0.050   12  0.052
L.A. ANGELS        90  73 770 734  0.078 86.672    6  0.131    6  0.135    8  0.109    5 0.5233   14  0.584    9  0.104    7  0.113   29 -0.232
N.Y. METS         103  69 880 770 -0.066 81.627    7  0.094    7  0.120   10  0.061    9 0.5144    8  0.670    6  0.140   15 -0.018   28 -0.230
TORONTO            87  75 809 754  0.055 84.620    8  0.048    8  0.095    9  0.096    7 0.5183   21  0.538   15  0.049    4  0.143   14  0.042
BOSTON             86  77 820 830  0.059 85.559    9  0.025    9  0.083   11  0.031    8 0.5155   10  0.660   10  0.101   17 -0.038   16 -0.002
TEXAS              80  82 835 784  0.086 86.658   10  0.003   10  0.047    7  0.110   10 0.5112   12  0.643    5  0.161   10  0.058   11  0.071
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE            78  84 756 792  0.090 87.063   11 -0.003   11  0.028   13  0.023   11 0.5078    6  0.688    8  0.120   22 -0.074   30 -0.260
L.A. DODGERS       89  77 836 770 -0.057 79.412   12 -0.005   12  0.022   12  0.028   13 0.5002   17  0.557   16 -0.002    9  0.058    6  0.134
CLEVELAND          78  84 870 782  0.078 85.970   13 -0.005   14  0.020    4  0.138   12 0.5071    3  0.750    2  0.297   16 -0.021   19 -0.098
SAN DIEGO          89  77 737 692 -0.059 79.343   14 -0.005   13  0.021   14  0.003   14 0.4993   27  0.449   23 -0.124    5  0.131   27 -0.230
ST. LOUIS          94  83 845 806 -0.086 82.674   15 -0.008   15 -0.006   17 -0.006   15 0.4966   19  0.555   18 -0.038   12  0.025   17 -0.028
PHILADELPHIA       85  78 866 815 -0.065 77.473   16 -0.009   16 -0.009   15 -0.001   16 0.4966    9  0.670   12  0.078   23 -0.079   10  0.083
HOUSTON            82  80 735 719 -0.089 75.552   17 -0.018   17 -0.049   20 -0.052   18 0.4899   30  0.388   27 -0.233    6  0.129    7  0.116
ATLANTA            79  83 848 805 -0.068 76.866   18 -0.025   19 -0.064   16 -0.003   19 0.4884    2  0.756    4  0.163   27 -0.168   20 -0.099
BALTIMORE          70  92 768 899  0.075 86.249   19 -0.025   18 -0.063   22 -0.076   17 0.4944    4  0.726   13  0.059   29 -0.211   18 -0.056
FLORIDA            78  84 758 772 -0.062 77.342   20 -0.030   20 -0.070   21 -0.060   20 0.4870   13  0.621   17 -0.030   24 -0.091   25 -0.181
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CINCINNATI         80  82 749 801 -0.091 75.552   21 -0.032   21 -0.071   25 -0.130   22 0.4859   29  0.442   28 -0.264   13  0.003    1  0.296
COLORADO           76  86 813 812 -0.050 78.052   22 -0.041   22 -0.083   18 -0.051   23 0.4845   20  0.553   21 -0.085   14 -0.018    2  0.293
ARIZONA            76  86 773 788 -0.055 77.773   23 -0.044   24 -0.085   19 -0.052   25 0.4839   26  0.455   24 -0.174    8  0.071    3  0.290
SAN FRANCISCO      76  86 749 795 -0.050 78.087   24 -0.044   23 -0.083   23 -0.079   24 0.4844   16  0.564   22 -0.102   20 -0.055   13  0.043
MILWAUKEE          75  87 730 833 -0.083 76.091   25 -0.102   25 -0.116   28 -0.162   27 0.4797   15  0.569   25 -0.181   26 -0.143    9  0.090
KANSAS CITY        62 100 757 971  0.117 89.106   26 -0.103   26 -0.117   26 -0.135   21 0.4859   11  0.654   20 -0.072   28 -0.198    4  0.244
WASHINGTON         71  91 746 872 -0.046 78.445   27 -0.137   27 -0.132   27 -0.161   28 0.4775    5  0.689   19 -0.063   30 -0.259   23 -0.106
TAMPA BAY          61 101 689 856  0.082 86.720   28 -0.175   28 -0.152   24 -0.122   26 0.4817   22  0.507   26 -0.198   19 -0.046   15  0.039
PITTSBURGH         67  95 691 797 -0.074 76.681   29 -0.219   29 -0.190   29 -0.175   29 0.4691   28  0.444   30 -0.307   18 -0.042    8  0.090
CHICAGO CUBS       66  96 716 834 -0.071 76.959   30 -0.224   30 -0.198   30 -0.190   30 0.4679   24  0.492   29 -0.279   25 -0.100    5  0.194
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
L.A. DODGERS       89  77 836 770 -0.057 79.412   12 -0.005   12  0.022   12  0.028   13 0.5002   17  0.557   16 -0.002    9  0.058    6  0.134
SAN DIEGO          89  77 737 692 -0.059 79.343   14 -0.005   13  0.021   14  0.003   14 0.4993   27  0.449   23 -0.124    5  0.131   27 -0.230
COLORADO           76  86 813 812 -0.050 78.052   22 -0.041   22 -0.083   18 -0.051   23 0.4845   20  0.553   21 -0.085   14 -0.018    2  0.293
ARIZONA            76  86 773 788 -0.055 77.773   23 -0.044   24 -0.085   19 -0.052   25 0.4839   26  0.455   24 -0.174    8  0.071    3  0.290
SAN FRANCISCO      76  86 749 795 -0.050 78.087   24 -0.044   23 -0.083   23 -0.079   24 0.4844   16  0.564   22 -0.102   20 -0.055   13  0.043

NL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS          94  83 845 806 -0.086 82.674   15 -0.008   15 -0.006   17 -0.006   15 0.4966   19  0.555   18 -0.038   12  0.025   17 -0.028
HOUSTON            82  80 735 719 -0.089 75.552   17 -0.018   17 -0.049   20 -0.052   18 0.4899   30  0.388   27 -0.233    6  0.129    7  0.116
CINCINNATI         80  82 749 801 -0.091 75.552   21 -0.032   21 -0.071   25 -0.130   22 0.4859   29  0.442   28 -0.264   13  0.003    1  0.296
MILWAUKEE          75  87 730 833 -0.083 76.091   25 -0.102   25 -0.116   28 -0.162   27 0.4797   15  0.569   25 -0.181   26 -0.143    9  0.090
PITTSBURGH         67  95 691 797 -0.074 76.681   29 -0.219   29 -0.190   29 -0.175   29 0.4691   28  0.444   30 -0.307   18 -0.042    8  0.090
CHICAGO CUBS       66  96 716 834 -0.071 76.959   30 -0.224   30 -0.198   30 -0.190   30 0.4679   24  0.492   29 -0.279   25 -0.100    5  0.194

NL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. METS         103  69 880 770 -0.066 81.627    7  0.094    7  0.120   10  0.061    9 0.5144    8  0.670    6  0.140   15 -0.018   28 -0.230
PHILADELPHIA       85  78 866 815 -0.065 77.473   16 -0.009   16 -0.009   15 -0.001   16 0.4966    9  0.670   12  0.078   23 -0.079   10  0.083
ATLANTA            79  83 848 805 -0.068 76.866   18 -0.025   19 -0.064   16 -0.003   19 0.4884    2  0.756    4  0.163   27 -0.168   20 -0.099
FLORIDA            78  84 758 772 -0.062 77.342   20 -0.030   20 -0.070   21 -0.060   20 0.4870   13  0.621   17 -0.030   24 -0.091   25 -0.181
WASHINGTON         71  91 746 872 -0.046 78.445   27 -0.137   27 -0.132   27 -0.161   28 0.4775    5  0.689   19 -0.063   30 -0.259   23 -0.106

AL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND            97  73 801 759  0.090 91.170    4  0.194    4  0.175    6  0.115    4 0.5288   18  0.556   11  0.084    3  0.146   24 -0.136
L.A. ANGELS        90  73 770 734  0.078 86.672    6  0.131    6  0.135    8  0.109    5 0.5233   14  0.584    9  0.104    7  0.113   29 -0.232
TEXAS              80  82 835 784  0.086 86.658   10  0.003   10  0.047    7  0.110   10 0.5112   12  0.643    5  0.161   10  0.058   11  0.071
SEATTLE            78  84 756 792  0.090 87.063   11 -0.003   11  0.028   13  0.023   11 0.5078    6  0.688    8  0.120   22 -0.074   30 -0.260

AL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT           103  72 877 720  0.073 92.453    1  0.214    1  0.197    1  0.217    1 0.5315   23  0.493    7  0.129    1  0.305   22 -0.102
MINNESOTA          96  69 808 699  0.071 87.141    3  0.201    3  0.181    3  0.160    3 0.5293   25  0.477   14  0.057    2  0.263   21 -0.101
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  72 868 794  0.077 85.928    5  0.142    5  0.140    5  0.136    6 0.5232    7  0.677    3  0.222   11  0.050   12  0.052
CLEVELAND          78  84 870 782  0.078 85.970   13 -0.005   14  0.020    4  0.138   12 0.5071    3  0.750    2  0.297   16 -0.021   19 -0.098
KANSAS CITY        62 100 757 971  0.117 89.106   26 -0.103   26 -0.117   26 -0.135   21 0.4859   11  0.654   20 -0.072   28 -0.198    4  0.244

AL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. YANKEES       98  68 944 789  0.050 86.245    2  0.202    2  0.181    2  0.190    2 0.5307    1  0.838    1  0.442   21 -0.062   26 -0.219
TORONTO            87  75 809 754  0.055 84.620    8  0.048    8  0.095    9  0.096    7 0.5183   21  0.538   15  0.049    4  0.143   14  0.042
BOSTON             86  77 820 830  0.059 85.559    9  0.025    9  0.083   11  0.031    8 0.5155   10  0.660   10  0.101   17 -0.038   16 -0.002
BALTIMORE          70  92 768 899  0.075 86.249   19 -0.025   18 -0.063   22 -0.076   17 0.4944    4  0.726   13  0.059   29 -0.211   18 -0.056
TAMPA BAY          61 101 689 856  0.082 86.720   28 -0.175   28 -0.152   24 -0.122   26 0.4817   22  0.507   26 -0.198   19 -0.046   15  0.039

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL CENTRAL 429 397 0.519    1  0.139
AL WEST    345 312 0.525    2  0.120
AL EAST    402 413 0.493    3  0.033
NL WEST    406 412 0.496    4 -0.040
NL EAST    416 405 0.507    5 -0.044
NL CENTRAL 464 523 0.470    6 -0.160

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.102 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:02 2020
games through: Sun Oct 29 2006

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