Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON            107  69 966 703  0.072 93.228    1  0.239    1  0.230    1  0.303    1 0.5317   29  0.349    9  0.105    1  0.502    1  0.350
CLEVELAND         102  71 867 771  0.053 90.537    2  0.215    2  0.184    3  0.143    2 0.5252   25  0.429   13  0.013    2  0.273    7  0.190
N.Y. YANKEES       94  71 976 794  0.067 87.160    3  0.192    3  0.159    2  0.231    3 0.5217    7  0.695    1  0.350    7  0.112    6  0.196
L.A. ANGELS        94  71 826 750  0.054 86.395    4  0.166    4  0.149    4  0.122    4 0.5211   22  0.447   14  0.007    4  0.236    8  0.182
SEATTLE            88  74 794 813  0.064 85.616    5  0.076    5  0.111    9  0.045    5 0.5148    6  0.696    4  0.165   20 -0.074   20 -0.076
DETROIT            88  74 887 797  0.045 84.316    6  0.062    6  0.099    5  0.119    6 0.5144    5  0.699    2  0.242   16 -0.004   11  0.123
TORONTO            83  79 753 699  0.080 86.495    7  0.029    7  0.072    6  0.114   10 0.5081   24  0.431   17 -0.014    3  0.243   18 -0.059
COLORADO           97  77 904 803 -0.035 85.064    8  0.026    8  0.072    7  0.067    7 0.5120   18  0.552   12  0.048   10  0.086    4  0.229
ARIZONA            93  76 736 756 -0.037 82.561    9  0.009    9  0.057   19 -0.035    8 0.5090   28  0.366   29 -0.219    6  0.150    9  0.143
SAN DIEGO          89  74 741 666 -0.049 78.806   10  0.008   10  0.042    8  0.049    9 0.5085   15  0.622   10  0.097   15  0.001   30 -0.518
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. METS          88  75 804 753 -0.063 77.927   11  0.003   11  0.023   12  0.021   11 0.5049    9  0.660    8  0.105   18 -0.063   25 -0.207
PHILADELPHIA       89  76 900 837 -0.069 78.506   12  0.002   12  0.019   10  0.025   12 0.5045    2  0.781    3  0.232   24 -0.182   15  0.020
MINNESOTA          79  83 718 725  0.056 85.186   13  0.001   13  0.016   11  0.025   13 0.5017   20  0.503   19 -0.039    9  0.089   24 -0.197
ATLANTA            84  78 810 733 -0.054 78.048   14 -0.001   14 -0.005   13  0.020   14 0.5009    8  0.669    7  0.113   19 -0.073   27 -0.217
L.A. DODGERS       82  80 735 727 -0.037 79.207   15 -0.003   16 -0.015   18 -0.020   15 0.4997   21  0.476   23 -0.109   11  0.068   13  0.053
OAKLAND            76  86 741 758  0.055 85.109   16 -0.003   15 -0.015   14  0.010   16 0.4973   14  0.638   11  0.074   17 -0.053   29 -0.300
TEXAS              75  87 816 844  0.062 85.579   17 -0.004   17 -0.021   16 -0.011   18 0.4961    4  0.727    6  0.141   23 -0.162   17 -0.009
CHICAGO CUBS       86  80 761 708 -0.100 76.921   18 -0.007   18 -0.036   15 -0.007   17 0.4968   30  0.302   30 -0.244    5  0.230    2  0.241
MILWAUKEE          83  79 801 776 -0.095 75.436   19 -0.010   19 -0.042   20 -0.041   19 0.4948   16  0.619   15  0.003   21 -0.085   16  0.010
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  72  90 693 839  0.073 86.397   20 -0.012   20 -0.045   23 -0.087   20 0.4918   23  0.443   28 -0.206   13  0.031    5  0.208
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE          69  92 749 860  0.093 87.109   21 -0.015   21 -0.056   17 -0.016   21 0.4899   19  0.550   18 -0.037   14  0.005    3  0.230
KANSAS CITY        69  93 706 778  0.062 85.695   22 -0.036   22 -0.080   21 -0.046   23 0.4877   27  0.420   26 -0.184    8  0.092   12  0.108
ST. LOUIS          79  85 730 832 -0.077 77.699   23 -0.041   23 -0.082   27 -0.157   22 0.4885   11  0.644   22 -0.088   27 -0.225   23 -0.113
TAMPA BAY          66  96 782 944  0.107 88.599   24 -0.044   24 -0.083   24 -0.089   24 0.4850    1  0.825    5  0.164   30 -0.341   22 -0.110
WASHINGTON         73  89 673 783 -0.042 78.998   25 -0.090   25 -0.110   29 -0.159   26 0.4845   17  0.575   25 -0.156   22 -0.162   28 -0.291
SAN FRANCISCO      71  91 683 720 -0.024 80.116   26 -0.098   26 -0.117   22 -0.067   25 0.4846   26  0.428   27 -0.198   12  0.064   19 -0.064
HOUSTON            73  89 723 813 -0.078 76.662   27 -0.141   27 -0.133   26 -0.153   27 0.4817   12  0.642   21 -0.087   26 -0.220   26 -0.210
FLORIDA            71  91 790 891 -0.055 78.191   28 -0.150   28 -0.137   28 -0.157   29 0.4808    3  0.735   16  0.002   29 -0.317   14  0.029
CINCINNATI         72  90 783 853 -0.075 76.860   29 -0.154   29 -0.140   25 -0.126   28 0.4809   13  0.639   20 -0.062   25 -0.190   10  0.136
PITTSBURGH         68  94 724 846 -0.074 76.983   30 -0.220   30 -0.181   30 -0.190   30 0.4749   10  0.647   24 -0.118   28 -0.262   21 -0.078
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLORADO           97  77 904 803 -0.035 85.064    8  0.026    8  0.072    7  0.067    7 0.5120   18  0.552   12  0.048   10  0.086    4  0.229
ARIZONA            93  76 736 756 -0.037 82.561    9  0.009    9  0.057   19 -0.035    8 0.5090   28  0.366   29 -0.219    6  0.150    9  0.143
SAN DIEGO          89  74 741 666 -0.049 78.806   10  0.008   10  0.042    8  0.049    9 0.5085   15  0.622   10  0.097   15  0.001   30 -0.518
L.A. DODGERS       82  80 735 727 -0.037 79.207   15 -0.003   16 -0.015   18 -0.020   15 0.4997   21  0.476   23 -0.109   11  0.068   13  0.053
SAN FRANCISCO      71  91 683 720 -0.024 80.116   26 -0.098   26 -0.117   22 -0.067   25 0.4846   26  0.428   27 -0.198   12  0.064   19 -0.064

NL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO CUBS       86  80 761 708 -0.100 76.921   18 -0.007   18 -0.036   15 -0.007   17 0.4968   30  0.302   30 -0.244    5  0.230    2  0.241
MILWAUKEE          83  79 801 776 -0.095 75.436   19 -0.010   19 -0.042   20 -0.041   19 0.4948   16  0.619   15  0.003   21 -0.085   16  0.010
ST. LOUIS          79  85 730 832 -0.077 77.699   23 -0.041   23 -0.082   27 -0.157   22 0.4885   11  0.644   22 -0.088   27 -0.225   23 -0.113
HOUSTON            73  89 723 813 -0.078 76.662   27 -0.141   27 -0.133   26 -0.153   27 0.4817   12  0.642   21 -0.087   26 -0.220   26 -0.210
CINCINNATI         72  90 783 853 -0.075 76.860   29 -0.154   29 -0.140   25 -0.126   28 0.4809   13  0.639   20 -0.062   25 -0.190   10  0.136
PITTSBURGH         68  94 724 846 -0.074 76.983   30 -0.220   30 -0.181   30 -0.190   30 0.4749   10  0.647   24 -0.118   28 -0.262   21 -0.078

NL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. METS          88  75 804 753 -0.063 77.927   11  0.003   11  0.023   12  0.021   11 0.5049    9  0.660    8  0.105   18 -0.063   25 -0.207
PHILADELPHIA       89  76 900 837 -0.069 78.506   12  0.002   12  0.019   10  0.025   12 0.5045    2  0.781    3  0.232   24 -0.182   15  0.020
ATLANTA            84  78 810 733 -0.054 78.048   14 -0.001   14 -0.005   13  0.020   14 0.5009    8  0.669    7  0.113   19 -0.073   27 -0.217
WASHINGTON         73  89 673 783 -0.042 78.998   25 -0.090   25 -0.110   29 -0.159   26 0.4845   17  0.575   25 -0.156   22 -0.162   28 -0.291
FLORIDA            71  91 790 891 -0.055 78.191   28 -0.150   28 -0.137   28 -0.157   29 0.4808    3  0.735   16  0.002   29 -0.317   14  0.029

AL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
L.A. ANGELS        94  71 826 750  0.054 86.395    4  0.166    4  0.149    4  0.122    4 0.5211   22  0.447   14  0.007    4  0.236    8  0.182
SEATTLE            88  74 794 813  0.064 85.616    5  0.076    5  0.111    9  0.045    5 0.5148    6  0.696    4  0.165   20 -0.074   20 -0.076
OAKLAND            76  86 741 758  0.055 85.109   16 -0.003   15 -0.015   14  0.010   16 0.4973   14  0.638   11  0.074   17 -0.053   29 -0.300
TEXAS              75  87 816 844  0.062 85.579   17 -0.004   17 -0.021   16 -0.011   18 0.4961    4  0.727    6  0.141   23 -0.162   17 -0.009

AL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND         102  71 867 771  0.053 90.537    2  0.215    2  0.184    3  0.143    2 0.5252   25  0.429   13  0.013    2  0.273    7  0.190
DETROIT            88  74 887 797  0.045 84.316    6  0.062    6  0.099    5  0.119    6 0.5144    5  0.699    2  0.242   16 -0.004   11  0.123
MINNESOTA          79  83 718 725  0.056 85.186   13  0.001   13  0.016   11  0.025   13 0.5017   20  0.503   19 -0.039    9  0.089   24 -0.197
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  72  90 693 839  0.073 86.397   20 -0.012   20 -0.045   23 -0.087   20 0.4918   23  0.443   28 -0.206   13  0.031    5  0.208
KANSAS CITY        69  93 706 778  0.062 85.695   22 -0.036   22 -0.080   21 -0.046   23 0.4877   27  0.420   26 -0.184    8  0.092   12  0.108

AL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON            107  69 966 703  0.072 93.228    1  0.239    1  0.230    1  0.303    1 0.5317   29  0.349    9  0.105    1  0.502    1  0.350
N.Y. YANKEES       94  71 976 794  0.067 87.160    3  0.192    3  0.159    2  0.231    3 0.5217    7  0.695    1  0.350    7  0.112    6  0.196
TORONTO            83  79 753 699  0.080 86.495    7  0.029    7  0.072    6  0.114   10 0.5081   24  0.431   17 -0.014    3  0.243   18 -0.059
BALTIMORE          69  92 749 860  0.093 87.109   21 -0.015   21 -0.056   17 -0.016   21 0.4899   19  0.550   18 -0.037   14  0.005    3  0.230
TAMPA BAY          66  96 782 944  0.107 88.599   24 -0.044   24 -0.083   24 -0.089   24 0.4850    1  0.825    5  0.164   30 -0.341   22 -0.110

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    419 407 0.507    1  0.145
AL WEST    333 318 0.512    2  0.057
AL CENTRAL 410 411 0.499    3  0.041
NL WEST    432 398 0.520    4 -0.001
NL EAST    405 409 0.498    5 -0.066
NL CENTRAL 461 517 0.471    6 -0.150

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.073 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:55 2024
games through: Mon Oct 29 2007

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