Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY         105  72 850 732  0.112 96.121    1  1.003    1  0.249    2  0.210    1 0.5343  0.474  0.147  0.273 -0.068
L.A. ANGELS       101  65 778 715  0.066 87.143    2  0.998    2  0.237    5  0.144    2 0.5324  0.429  0.041  0.246  0.074
BOSTON            101  72 891 750  0.105 93.399    3  0.997    3  0.226    1  0.249    3 0.5324  0.514  0.222  0.276  0.175
N.Y. YANKEES       89  73 789 727  0.103 87.379    4  0.877    4  0.159    4  0.150    4 0.5225  0.507  0.118  0.183  0.113
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  76 821 746  0.084 88.358    5  0.782    5  0.134    7  0.138    5 0.5187  0.457  0.060  0.216  0.202
TORONTO            85  76 709 609  0.103 86.820    6  0.736    6  0.121    3  0.180    6 0.5180  0.280 -0.048  0.409 -0.038
MINNESOTA          88  75 829 745  0.061 85.271    7  0.698    7  0.114    6  0.142    7 0.5156  0.702  0.295 -0.011 -0.209
CHICAGO CUBS       97  67 861 691 -0.077 76.763    8  0.676    8  0.108    8  0.114    8 0.5154  0.557  0.127  0.100  0.081
PHILADELPHIA      102  73 859 721 -0.068 82.595    9  0.640    9  0.100   10  0.086    9 0.5131  0.493  0.041  0.132  0.035
CLEVELAND          81  81 805 761  0.059 84.666   10  0.520   10  0.040    9  0.096   10 0.5060  0.570  0.122  0.071  0.057
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MILWAUKEE          91  75 759 704 -0.066 78.564   11  0.519   11  0.038   12  0.020   11 0.5053  0.489 -0.029  0.069 -0.124
TEXAS              79  83 901 967  0.071 85.639   12  0.512   12  0.027   16 -0.006   12 0.5045  0.882  0.335 -0.347  0.281
N.Y. METS          89  73 799 715 -0.087 75.321   13  0.511   13  0.026   11  0.029   14 0.5030  0.619  0.100 -0.043 -0.124
HOUSTON            86  75 712 743 -0.056 76.934   14  0.506   14  0.019   21 -0.049   13 0.5032  0.459 -0.125  0.028  0.058
ST. LOUIS          86  76 779 725 -0.071 76.437   15  0.502   15  0.005   14 -0.002   15 0.5013  0.588  0.040 -0.045 -0.104
KANSAS CITY        75  87 691 781  0.085 86.587   16  0.497   16 -0.007   19 -0.029   17 0.4987  0.513 -0.057 -0.002 -0.104
OAKLAND            75  86 646 690  0.071 85.086   17  0.496   17 -0.012   13  0.001   16 0.4996  0.338 -0.179  0.182 -0.128
FLORIDA            84  77 770 767 -0.074 75.829   18  0.495   18 -0.015   20 -0.047   18 0.4970  0.684  0.089 -0.183 -0.090
DETROIT            74  88 821 857  0.076 86.006   19  0.491   19 -0.023   15 -0.005   19 0.4967  0.669  0.116 -0.127  0.192
L.A. DODGERS       88  82 740 679 -0.092 78.784   20  0.486   20 -0.034   18 -0.016   20 0.4946  0.504 -0.052  0.020 -0.337
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE          67  92 777 861  0.115 86.860   21  0.458   21 -0.059   17 -0.011   21 0.4933  0.724  0.165 -0.187  0.096
ARIZONA            82  80 720 706 -0.103 74.461   22  0.455   22 -0.063   22 -0.060   22 0.4900  0.373 -0.211  0.091  0.204
CINCINNATI         74  88 704 800 -0.046 78.342   23  0.327   23 -0.109   25 -0.143   23 0.4852  0.519 -0.165 -0.121  0.082
COLORADO           74  88 747 822 -0.095 75.138   24  0.179   24 -0.144   26 -0.147   25 0.4786  0.587 -0.105 -0.189  0.173
ATLANTA            72  90 753 778 -0.072 76.539   25  0.167   25 -0.149   23 -0.100   24 0.4793  0.547 -0.096 -0.104  0.103
SAN FRANCISCO      72  90 640 759 -0.090 75.502   26  0.114   26 -0.162   27 -0.196   27 0.4758  0.418 -0.309 -0.084  0.046
SEATTLE            61 101 671 811  0.070 85.740   27  0.091   27 -0.171   24 -0.112   26 0.4777  0.528 -0.125 -0.098 -0.087
PITTSBURGH         67  95 735 884 -0.043 78.556   28  0.062   28 -0.184   28 -0.199   28 0.4752  0.790  0.044 -0.443 -0.175
SAN DIEGO          63  99 637 764 -0.087 75.746   29  0.008   29 -0.259   29 -0.221   29 0.4631  0.620 -0.148 -0.294 -0.424
WASHINGTON         59 102 641 825 -0.053 77.527   30  0.000   30 -0.275   30 -0.273   30 0.4615  0.472 -0.338 -0.208  0.039

NL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. DODGERS       88  82 740 679 -0.092 78.784   20  0.486   20 -0.034   18 -0.016   20 0.4946  0.504 -0.052  0.020 -0.337
ARIZONA            82  80 720 706 -0.103 74.461   22  0.455   22 -0.063   22 -0.060   22 0.4900  0.373 -0.211  0.091  0.204
COLORADO           74  88 747 822 -0.095 75.138   24  0.179   24 -0.144   26 -0.147   25 0.4786  0.587 -0.105 -0.189  0.173
SAN FRANCISCO      72  90 640 759 -0.090 75.502   26  0.114   26 -0.162   27 -0.196   27 0.4758  0.418 -0.309 -0.084  0.046
SAN DIEGO          63  99 637 764 -0.087 75.746   29  0.008   29 -0.259   29 -0.221   29 0.4631  0.620 -0.148 -0.294 -0.424

NL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO CUBS       97  67 861 691 -0.077 76.763    8  0.676    8  0.108    8  0.114    8 0.5154  0.557  0.127  0.100  0.081
MILWAUKEE          91  75 759 704 -0.066 78.564   11  0.519   11  0.038   12  0.020   11 0.5053  0.489 -0.029  0.069 -0.124
HOUSTON            86  75 712 743 -0.056 76.934   14  0.506   14  0.019   21 -0.049   13 0.5032  0.459 -0.125  0.028  0.058
ST. LOUIS          86  76 779 725 -0.071 76.437   15  0.502   15  0.005   14 -0.002   15 0.5013  0.588  0.040 -0.045 -0.104
CINCINNATI         74  88 704 800 -0.046 78.342   23  0.327   23 -0.109   25 -0.143   23 0.4852  0.519 -0.165 -0.121  0.082
PITTSBURGH         67  95 735 884 -0.043 78.556   28  0.062   28 -0.184   28 -0.199   28 0.4752  0.790  0.044 -0.443 -0.175

NL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA      102  73 859 721 -0.068 82.595    9  0.640    9  0.100   10  0.086    9 0.5131  0.493  0.041  0.132  0.035
N.Y. METS          89  73 799 715 -0.087 75.321   13  0.511   13  0.026   11  0.029   14 0.5030  0.619  0.100 -0.043 -0.124
FLORIDA            84  77 770 767 -0.074 75.829   18  0.495   18 -0.015   20 -0.047   18 0.4970  0.684  0.089 -0.183 -0.090
ATLANTA            72  90 753 778 -0.072 76.539   25  0.167   25 -0.149   23 -0.100   24 0.4793  0.547 -0.096 -0.104  0.103
WASHINGTON         59 102 641 825 -0.053 77.527   30  0.000   30 -0.275   30 -0.273   30 0.4615  0.472 -0.338 -0.208  0.039

AL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. ANGELS       101  65 778 715  0.066 87.143    2  0.998    2  0.237    5  0.144    2 0.5324  0.429  0.041  0.246  0.074
TEXAS              79  83 901 967  0.071 85.639   12  0.512   12  0.027   16 -0.006   12 0.5045  0.882  0.335 -0.347  0.281
OAKLAND            75  86 646 690  0.071 85.086   17  0.496   17 -0.012   13  0.001   16 0.4996  0.338 -0.179  0.182 -0.128
SEATTLE            61 101 671 811  0.070 85.740   27  0.091   27 -0.171   24 -0.112   26 0.4777  0.528 -0.125 -0.098 -0.087

AL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  76 821 746  0.084 88.358    5  0.782    5  0.134    7  0.138    5 0.5187  0.457  0.060  0.216  0.202
MINNESOTA          88  75 829 745  0.061 85.271    7  0.698    7  0.114    6  0.142    7 0.5156  0.702  0.295 -0.011 -0.209
CLEVELAND          81  81 805 761  0.059 84.666   10  0.520   10  0.040    9  0.096   10 0.5060  0.570  0.122  0.071  0.057
KANSAS CITY        75  87 691 781  0.085 86.587   16  0.497   16 -0.007   19 -0.029   17 0.4987  0.513 -0.057 -0.002 -0.104
DETROIT            74  88 821 857  0.076 86.006   19  0.491   19 -0.023   15 -0.005   19 0.4967  0.669  0.116 -0.127  0.192

AL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY         105  72 850 732  0.112 96.121    1  1.003    1  0.249    2  0.210    1 0.5343  0.474  0.147  0.273 -0.068
BOSTON            101  72 891 750  0.105 93.399    3  0.997    3  0.226    1  0.249    3 0.5324  0.514  0.222  0.276  0.175
N.Y. YANKEES       89  73 789 727  0.103 87.379    4  0.877    4  0.159    4  0.150    4 0.5225  0.507  0.118  0.183  0.113
TORONTO            85  76 709 609  0.103 86.820    6  0.736    6  0.121    3  0.180    6 0.5180  0.280 -0.048  0.409 -0.038
BALTIMORE          67  92 777 861  0.115 86.860   21  0.458   21 -0.059   17 -0.011   21 0.4933  0.724  0.165 -0.187  0.096

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    447 385 0.537    1  0.197
AL CENTRAL 408 407 0.501    2  0.087
AL WEST    316 335 0.485    3  0.009
NL CENTRAL 501 476 0.513    4 -0.055
NL EAST    406 415 0.495    5 -0.077
NL WEST    379 439 0.463    6 -0.162

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.105 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Nov 24 15:06:48 2008
games through: Mon Oct 27 2008

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