Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY YANKEES    114  63 995 805  0.068 92.926    1  0.285    1  0.290    1  0.256    1 0.5404    3  0.757    1  0.480   16  0.033   22 -0.138
LA ANGELS     102  69 918 801  0.074 90.304    2  0.270    2  0.211    2  0.189    2 0.5313    6  0.658    2  0.313   12  0.064   11  0.089
BOSTON         95  70 879 752  0.071 86.866    3  0.243    3  0.172    3  0.188    3 0.5239   15  0.531    5  0.191    3  0.185    5  0.179
LA DODGERS     99  72 810 655 -0.037 82.805    4  0.093    4  0.107    4  0.116    4 0.5174   13  0.544    8  0.131    9  0.100   29 -0.302
PHILADELPHIA  102  75 902 772 -0.038 85.666    5  0.083    5  0.104    7  0.090    6 0.5147    9  0.574    7  0.133   15  0.047   14  0.055
TEXAS          87  75 784 740  0.064 85.025    6  0.081    6  0.102    5  0.095    5 0.5157   20  0.467   12  0.040    5  0.150    4  0.191
SEATTLE        85  77 640 692  0.073 85.770    7  0.045    7  0.087   16  0.011    7 0.5129   29  0.295   26 -0.190    2  0.213   20 -0.068
TAMPA BAY      84  78 803 754  0.072 85.485    8  0.037    8  0.077    6  0.090    9 0.5102   10  0.560    9  0.121   13  0.060   16  0.029
COLORADO       93  73 819 735 -0.044 79.970    9  0.030    9  0.070   11  0.057    8 0.5116   21  0.455   17 -0.008    7  0.123    1  0.356
DETROIT        86  77 740 744  0.025 83.156   10  0.022   10  0.061   17  0.009   12 0.5075   26  0.401   20 -0.103    8  0.122    9  0.140
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA      87  79 823 780  0.025 84.569   11  0.022   11  0.055    9  0.062   11 0.5076   17  0.506   11  0.043   11  0.082    8  0.160
SAN FRANCISCO  89  74 660 612 -0.039 78.916   12  0.019   12  0.049   13  0.033   10 0.5086   30  0.191   29 -0.251    1  0.317   13  0.071
FLORIDA        87  75 773 766 -0.045 78.156   13  0.012   13  0.030   18 -0.026   14 0.5036   12  0.549   16 -0.006   21 -0.045   10  0.131
ST. LOUIS      91  74 736 653 -0.093 76.334   14  0.010   14  0.024   14  0.022   13 0.5038   18  0.499   15 -0.004   14  0.048   25 -0.197
ATLANTA        86  76 735 641 -0.053 77.524   15  0.009   15  0.015   12  0.048   15 0.5023   19  0.477   14  0.002   10  0.094   27 -0.239
CHI WHITE SOX  79  83 723 729  0.027 82.685   16  0.006   16 -0.004   15  0.017   18 0.4985   27  0.371   22 -0.122    4  0.155    6  0.178
TORONTO        75  87 798 771  0.083 86.277   17  0.006   18 -0.007    8  0.075   17 0.4987    7  0.616    6  0.158   19 -0.008   21 -0.092
OAKLAND        75  87 759 761  0.084 86.340   18  0.006   17 -0.006   10  0.058   16 0.5006   11  0.556   10  0.084   17  0.031   15  0.031
CHI CUBS       83  78 705 672 -0.084 75.200   19  0.002   19 -0.030   19 -0.038   19 0.4963   28  0.319   28 -0.220    6  0.145    7  0.176
MILWAUKEE      80  82 785 818 -0.073 76.397   20 -0.010   20 -0.059   21 -0.084   20 0.4916    1  0.858    3  0.246   30 -0.414   26 -0.220
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO      75  87 638 769 -0.021 79.901   21 -0.025   21 -0.076   27 -0.148   21 0.4899    4  0.705   13  0.023   27 -0.319   30 -0.566
CINCINNATI     78  84 673 721 -0.085 75.690   22 -0.035   22 -0.087   24 -0.095   22 0.4870   23  0.444   24 -0.171   20 -0.020   19 -0.067
BALTIMORE      64  98 741 876  0.095 87.298   23 -0.088   23 -0.113   20 -0.080   24 0.4828    8  0.590   18 -0.022   25 -0.139   12  0.086
HOUSTON        74  88 643 770 -0.064 77.151   24 -0.090   24 -0.114   28 -0.172   23 0.4835   14  0.532   23 -0.167   26 -0.176   24 -0.146
NY METS        70  92 671 758 -0.032 79.170   25 -0.129   25 -0.133   25 -0.109   26 0.4807   16  0.527   21 -0.110   23 -0.109   23 -0.144
ARIZONA        70  92 720 782 -0.034 79.011   26 -0.130   26 -0.134   23 -0.094   25 0.4822   25  0.422   25 -0.188   18  0.001    2  0.311
CLEVELAND      65  97 773 865  0.037 83.593   27 -0.141   28 -0.138   22 -0.088   27 0.4791    2  0.827    4  0.208   29 -0.385   28 -0.244
KANSAS CITY    65  97 686 842  0.040 83.801   28 -0.146   27 -0.138   26 -0.123   28 0.4788   22  0.448   27 -0.195   22 -0.050    3  0.247
PITTSBURGH     62  99 636 768 -0.069 76.360   29 -0.243   29 -0.236   30 -0.216   29 0.4657   24  0.425   30 -0.307   24 -0.124   17  0.023
WASHINGTON     59 103 710 874 -0.030 79.386   30 -0.245   30 -0.245   29 -0.207   30 0.4639    5  0.691   19 -0.050   28 -0.364   18 -0.030
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA DODGERS     99  72 810 655 -0.037 82.805    4  0.093    4  0.107    4  0.116    4 0.5174   13  0.544    8  0.131    9  0.100   29 -0.302
COLORADO       93  73 819 735 -0.044 79.970    9  0.030    9  0.070   11  0.057    8 0.5116   21  0.455   17 -0.008    7  0.123    1  0.356
SAN FRANCISCO  89  74 660 612 -0.039 78.916   12  0.019   12  0.049   13  0.033   10 0.5086   30  0.191   29 -0.251    1  0.317   13  0.071
SAN DIEGO      75  87 638 769 -0.021 79.901   21 -0.025   21 -0.076   27 -0.148   21 0.4899    4  0.705   13  0.023   27 -0.319   30 -0.566
ARIZONA        70  92 720 782 -0.034 79.011   26 -0.130   26 -0.134   23 -0.094   25 0.4822   25  0.422   25 -0.188   18  0.001    2  0.311

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      91  74 736 653 -0.093 76.334   14  0.010   14  0.024   14  0.022   13 0.5038   18  0.499   15 -0.004   14  0.048   25 -0.197
CHI CUBS       83  78 705 672 -0.084 75.200   19  0.002   19 -0.030   19 -0.038   19 0.4963   28  0.319   28 -0.220    6  0.145    7  0.176
MILWAUKEE      80  82 785 818 -0.073 76.397   20 -0.010   20 -0.059   21 -0.084   20 0.4916    1  0.858    3  0.246   30 -0.414   26 -0.220
CINCINNATI     78  84 673 721 -0.085 75.690   22 -0.035   22 -0.087   24 -0.095   22 0.4870   23  0.444   24 -0.171   20 -0.020   19 -0.067
HOUSTON        74  88 643 770 -0.064 77.151   24 -0.090   24 -0.114   28 -0.172   23 0.4835   14  0.532   23 -0.167   26 -0.176   24 -0.146
PITTSBURGH     62  99 636 768 -0.069 76.360   29 -0.243   29 -0.236   30 -0.216   29 0.4657   24  0.425   30 -0.307   24 -0.124   17  0.023

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  102  75 902 772 -0.038 85.666    5  0.083    5  0.104    7  0.090    6 0.5147    9  0.574    7  0.133   15  0.047   14  0.055
FLORIDA        87  75 773 766 -0.045 78.156   13  0.012   13  0.030   18 -0.026   14 0.5036   12  0.549   16 -0.006   21 -0.045   10  0.131
ATLANTA        86  76 735 641 -0.053 77.524   15  0.009   15  0.015   12  0.048   15 0.5023   19  0.477   14  0.002   10  0.094   27 -0.239
NY METS        70  92 671 758 -0.032 79.170   25 -0.129   25 -0.133   25 -0.109   26 0.4807   16  0.527   21 -0.110   23 -0.109   23 -0.144
WASHINGTON     59 103 710 874 -0.030 79.386   30 -0.245   30 -0.245   29 -0.207   30 0.4639    5  0.691   19 -0.050   28 -0.364   18 -0.030

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA ANGELS     102  69 918 801  0.074 90.304    2  0.270    2  0.211    2  0.189    2 0.5313    6  0.658    2  0.313   12  0.064   11  0.089
TEXAS          87  75 784 740  0.064 85.025    6  0.081    6  0.102    5  0.095    5 0.5157   20  0.467   12  0.040    5  0.150    4  0.191
SEATTLE        85  77 640 692  0.073 85.770    7  0.045    7  0.087   16  0.011    7 0.5129   29  0.295   26 -0.190    2  0.213   20 -0.068
OAKLAND        75  87 759 761  0.084 86.340   18  0.006   17 -0.006   10  0.058   16 0.5006   11  0.556   10  0.084   17  0.031   15  0.031

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        86  77 740 744  0.025 83.156   10  0.022   10  0.061   17  0.009   12 0.5075   26  0.401   20 -0.103    8  0.122    9  0.140
MINNESOTA      87  79 823 780  0.025 84.569   11  0.022   11  0.055    9  0.062   11 0.5076   17  0.506   11  0.043   11  0.082    8  0.160
CHI WHITE SOX  79  83 723 729  0.027 82.685   16  0.006   16 -0.004   15  0.017   18 0.4985   27  0.371   22 -0.122    4  0.155    6  0.178
CLEVELAND      65  97 773 865  0.037 83.593   27 -0.141   28 -0.138   22 -0.088   27 0.4791    2  0.827    4  0.208   29 -0.385   28 -0.244
KANSAS CITY    65  97 686 842  0.040 83.801   28 -0.146   27 -0.138   26 -0.123   28 0.4788   22  0.448   27 -0.195   22 -0.050    3  0.247

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY YANKEES    114  63 995 805  0.068 92.926    1  0.285    1  0.290    1  0.256    1 0.5404    3  0.757    1  0.480   16  0.033   22 -0.138
BOSTON         95  70 879 752  0.071 86.866    3  0.243    3  0.172    3  0.188    3 0.5239   15  0.531    5  0.191    3  0.185    5  0.179
TAMPA BAY      84  78 803 754  0.072 85.485    8  0.037    8  0.077    6  0.090    9 0.5102   10  0.560    9  0.121   13  0.060   16  0.029
TORONTO        75  87 798 771  0.083 86.277   17  0.006   18 -0.007    8  0.075   17 0.4987    7  0.616    6  0.158   19 -0.008   21 -0.092
BALTIMORE      64  98 741 876  0.095 87.298   23 -0.088   23 -0.113   20 -0.080   24 0.4828    8  0.590   18 -0.022   25 -0.139   12  0.086

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    432 396 0.522    1  0.141
AL WEST    349 308 0.531    2  0.118
NL WEST    426 398 0.517    3 -0.009
AL CENTRAL 382 433 0.469    4 -0.032
NL EAST    404 421 0.490    5 -0.054
NL CENTRAL 468 505 0.481    6 -0.129

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.104 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:17 2020
games through: Wed Nov  4 2009

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