Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  102  69 805 663  0.003 84.678    1  0.208    1  0.166    3  0.151    3 0.5227   17  0.451    6  0.131    5  0.170   16 -0.005
NY YANKEES    100  71 895 738  0.029 86.433    2  0.207    2  0.165    1  0.180    2 0.5242   13  0.498    3  0.203    6  0.158    2  0.293
TAMPA BAY      98  69 815 670  0.028 84.289    3  0.206    3  0.165    2  0.173    1 0.5245    1  0.673    1  0.361   17 -0.016   29 -0.389
SAN FRANCISCO 103  74 756 624 -0.005 87.111    4  0.154    4  0.137    4  0.125    4 0.5188   30  0.235   22 -0.076    1  0.326   17 -0.013
MINNESOTA      94  71 788 688 -0.003 81.422    5  0.099    5  0.116    7  0.103    5 0.5171    9  0.542    4  0.166   13  0.040   20 -0.082
BOSTON         89  73 818 744  0.042 82.743    6  0.087    6  0.110    5  0.118    6 0.5168    6  0.599    2  0.234   14  0.001    8  0.133
TEXAS          98  80 858 748  0.005 88.290    7  0.050    7  0.090    6  0.110    7 0.5132   10  0.529    5  0.161   12  0.060   10  0.058
ATLANTA        92  74 747 640 -0.010 81.433    8  0.045    8  0.085    8  0.098    9 0.5114   24  0.380   13  0.016    3  0.179   13  0.021
TORONTO        85  77 755 728  0.056 83.763    9  0.037    9  0.078   10  0.077    8 0.5122   14  0.488   10  0.090   11  0.063    9  0.130
SAN DIEGO      90  72 665 581 -0.024 78.597   10  0.036   10  0.078    9  0.077   10 0.5106   28  0.322   21 -0.053    2  0.208   26 -0.199
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHI WHITE SOX  88  74 752 704 -0.015 79.194   11  0.022   11  0.062   13  0.052   11 0.5094   23  0.399   16 -0.013    8  0.117    4  0.222
CINCINNATI     91  74 794 698 -0.069 77.117   12  0.010   12  0.039   14  0.043   12 0.5057    8  0.546    8  0.110   19 -0.024   14  0.017
COLORADO       83  79 770 717 -0.012 79.410   13  0.004   13  0.012   15  0.038   13 0.5016   29  0.311   25 -0.102    4  0.178    1  0.549
ST. LOUIS      86  76 736 641 -0.065 75.992   14  0.003   14  0.008   11  0.054   14 0.5016   21  0.418   15  0.006    9  0.102   18 -0.031
OAKLAND        81  81 663 626  0.009 80.743   15  0.003   15  0.006   12  0.054   15 0.5013   25  0.374   18 -0.033    7  0.140   24 -0.144
LA ANGELS      80  82 681 702  0.015 81.305   16  0.001   16 -0.001   19 -0.013   17 0.4996    7  0.586    9  0.091   23 -0.117   28 -0.303
DETROIT        81  81 751 743 -0.008 79.789   17  0.000   17 -0.006   18  0.003   16 0.4999    5  0.605    7  0.126   25 -0.119   22 -0.088
FLORIDA        80  82 719 717  0.005 80.579   18 -0.000   18 -0.008   17  0.014   18 0.4983   11  0.512   12  0.049   18 -0.022   11  0.057
LA DODGERS     80  82 667 692  0.002 80.501   19 -0.001   19 -0.010   20 -0.028   19 0.4980   16  0.456   20 -0.043   15 -0.013   21 -0.083
NY METS        79  83 656 652 -0.000 80.214   20 -0.003   20 -0.021   16  0.021   20 0.4965   22  0.411   19 -0.033   10  0.076   25 -0.188
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MILWAUKEE      77  85 750 804 -0.050 77.324   21 -0.032   21 -0.075   23 -0.110   21 0.4890    2  0.658   11  0.064   28 -0.283   12  0.054
HOUSTON        76  86 611 729 -0.035 78.309   22 -0.035   22 -0.076   26 -0.142   22 0.4887   18  0.439   27 -0.172   22 -0.111   27 -0.204
CHI CUBS       75  87 685 767 -0.047 77.470   23 -0.051   23 -0.094   24 -0.113   23 0.4864   20  0.419   26 -0.161   21 -0.066    3  0.292
BALTIMORE      66  96 613 785  0.073 85.238   24 -0.080   24 -0.109   27 -0.142   25 0.4847   27  0.325   28 -0.270   16 -0.014    5  0.175
CLEVELAND      69  93 646 752  0.023 81.948   25 -0.082   25 -0.111   21 -0.108   24 0.4849   15  0.486   24 -0.096   24 -0.119   23 -0.105
WASHINGTON     69  93 655 742  0.000 80.488   26 -0.115   26 -0.125   22 -0.109   27 0.4812   12  0.509   23 -0.076   26 -0.142   19 -0.057
KANSAS CITY    67  95 676 845  0.028 82.322   27 -0.126   27 -0.128   28 -0.157   26 0.4818    4  0.622   17 -0.019   30 -0.296   15 -0.004
ARIZONA        65  97 713 836  0.020 81.790   28 -0.182   28 -0.155   25 -0.129   28 0.4777    3  0.625   14  0.013   27 -0.270    6  0.173
SEATTLE        61 101 513 698  0.044 83.412   29 -0.217   29 -0.180   29 -0.175   29 0.4742   26  0.342   29 -0.289   20 -0.061   30 -0.426
PITTSBURGH     57 105 587 866 -0.024 79.241   30 -0.247   30 -0.269   30 -0.321   30 0.4611   19  0.437   30 -0.353   29 -0.289    7  0.146
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 103  74 756 624 -0.005 87.111    4  0.154    4  0.137    4  0.125    4 0.5188   30  0.235   22 -0.076    1  0.326   17 -0.013
SAN DIEGO      90  72 665 581 -0.024 78.597   10  0.036   10  0.078    9  0.077   10 0.5106   28  0.322   21 -0.053    2  0.208   26 -0.199
COLORADO       83  79 770 717 -0.012 79.410   13  0.004   13  0.012   15  0.038   13 0.5016   29  0.311   25 -0.102    4  0.178    1  0.549
LA DODGERS     80  82 667 692  0.002 80.501   19 -0.001   19 -0.010   20 -0.028   19 0.4980   16  0.456   20 -0.043   15 -0.013   21 -0.083
ARIZONA        65  97 713 836  0.020 81.790   28 -0.182   28 -0.155   25 -0.129   28 0.4777    3  0.625   14  0.013   27 -0.270    6  0.173

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CINCINNATI     91  74 794 698 -0.069 77.117   12  0.010   12  0.039   14  0.043   12 0.5057    8  0.546    8  0.110   19 -0.024   14  0.017
ST. LOUIS      86  76 736 641 -0.065 75.992   14  0.003   14  0.008   11  0.054   14 0.5016   21  0.418   15  0.006    9  0.102   18 -0.031
MILWAUKEE      77  85 750 804 -0.050 77.324   21 -0.032   21 -0.075   23 -0.110   21 0.4890    2  0.658   11  0.064   28 -0.283   12  0.054
HOUSTON        76  86 611 729 -0.035 78.309   22 -0.035   22 -0.076   26 -0.142   22 0.4887   18  0.439   27 -0.172   22 -0.111   27 -0.204
CHI CUBS       75  87 685 767 -0.047 77.470   23 -0.051   23 -0.094   24 -0.113   23 0.4864   20  0.419   26 -0.161   21 -0.066    3  0.292
PITTSBURGH     57 105 587 866 -0.024 79.241   30 -0.247   30 -0.269   30 -0.321   30 0.4611   19  0.437   30 -0.353   29 -0.289    7  0.146

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  102  69 805 663  0.003 84.678    1  0.208    1  0.166    3  0.151    3 0.5227   17  0.451    6  0.131    5  0.170   16 -0.005
ATLANTA        92  74 747 640 -0.010 81.433    8  0.045    8  0.085    8  0.098    9 0.5114   24  0.380   13  0.016    3  0.179   13  0.021
FLORIDA        80  82 719 717  0.005 80.579   18 -0.000   18 -0.008   17  0.014   18 0.4983   11  0.512   12  0.049   18 -0.022   11  0.057
NY METS        79  83 656 652 -0.000 80.214   20 -0.003   20 -0.021   16  0.021   20 0.4965   22  0.411   19 -0.033   10  0.076   25 -0.188
WASHINGTON     69  93 655 742  0.000 80.488   26 -0.115   26 -0.125   22 -0.109   27 0.4812   12  0.509   23 -0.076   26 -0.142   19 -0.057

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXAS          98  80 858 748  0.005 88.290    7  0.050    7  0.090    6  0.110    7 0.5132   10  0.529    5  0.161   12  0.060   10  0.058
OAKLAND        81  81 663 626  0.009 80.743   15  0.003   15  0.006   12  0.054   15 0.5013   25  0.374   18 -0.033    7  0.140   24 -0.144
LA ANGELS      80  82 681 702  0.015 81.305   16  0.001   16 -0.001   19 -0.013   17 0.4996    7  0.586    9  0.091   23 -0.117   28 -0.303
SEATTLE        61 101 513 698  0.044 83.412   29 -0.217   29 -0.180   29 -0.175   29 0.4742   26  0.342   29 -0.289   20 -0.061   30 -0.426

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA      94  71 788 688 -0.003 81.422    5  0.099    5  0.116    7  0.103    5 0.5171    9  0.542    4  0.166   13  0.040   20 -0.082
CHI WHITE SOX  88  74 752 704 -0.015 79.194   11  0.022   11  0.062   13  0.052   11 0.5094   23  0.399   16 -0.013    8  0.117    4  0.222
DETROIT        81  81 751 743 -0.008 79.789   17  0.000   17 -0.006   18  0.003   16 0.4999    5  0.605    7  0.126   25 -0.119   22 -0.088
CLEVELAND      69  93 646 752  0.023 81.948   25 -0.082   25 -0.111   21 -0.108   24 0.4849   15  0.486   24 -0.096   24 -0.119   23 -0.105
KANSAS CITY    67  95 676 845  0.028 82.322   27 -0.126   27 -0.128   28 -0.157   26 0.4818    4  0.622   17 -0.019   30 -0.296   15 -0.004

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY YANKEES    100  71 895 738  0.029 86.433    2  0.207    2  0.165    1  0.180    2 0.5242   13  0.498    3  0.203    6  0.158    2  0.293
TAMPA BAY      98  69 815 670  0.028 84.289    3  0.206    3  0.165    2  0.173    1 0.5245    1  0.673    1  0.361   17 -0.016   29 -0.389
BOSTON         89  73 818 744  0.042 82.743    6  0.087    6  0.110    5  0.118    6 0.5168    6  0.599    2  0.234   14  0.001    8  0.133
TORONTO        85  77 755 728  0.056 83.763    9  0.037    9  0.078   10  0.077    8 0.5122   14  0.488   10  0.090   11  0.063    9  0.130
BALTIMORE      66  96 613 785  0.073 85.238   24 -0.080   24 -0.109   27 -0.142   25 0.4847   27  0.325   28 -0.270   16 -0.014    5  0.175

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    438 386 0.532    1  0.107
NL EAST    422 401 0.513    2  0.046
NL WEST    421 404 0.510    3  0.022
AL WEST    320 344 0.482    4 -0.008
AL CENTRAL 399 414 0.491    5 -0.028
NL CENTRAL 462 513 0.474    6 -0.128

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.108 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:34 2020
games through: Mon Nov  1 2010

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