Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY YANKEES     98  73 826 697  0.061 88.926    1  0.204    2  0.159    1  0.177    1 0.5262    9  0.538    3  0.251   10  0.102   17 -0.020
BALTIMORE      96  72 727 722  0.070 88.070    2  0.188    1  0.159    9  0.075    3 0.5250   28  0.246   24 -0.102    4  0.251    3  0.356
OAKLAND        96  71 724 631  0.055 86.458    3  0.186    3  0.156    4  0.124    2 0.5253   18  0.417    6  0.090    8  0.158   24 -0.278
TEXAS          93  70 809 712  0.036 83.128    4  0.149    4  0.135    3  0.134    4 0.5221   10  0.529    4  0.200   12  0.068    7  0.238
WASHINGTON    100  67 747 626 -0.039 80.249    5  0.146    5  0.134    6  0.100    7 0.5193   24  0.339   16 -0.001    7  0.200   16  0.046
SAN FRANCISCO 105  73 787 696 -0.038 85.619    6  0.116    6  0.123   10  0.075    8 0.5167    3  0.647    2  0.252   21 -0.103   29 -0.488
TAMPA BAY      90  72 697 577  0.049 83.468    7  0.107    7  0.120    2  0.164    5 0.5206   25  0.335    8  0.060    2  0.269   22 -0.200
LA ANGELS      89  73 767 699  0.057 84.063    8  0.089    8  0.115    5  0.119    6 0.5198    1  0.755    1  0.404   24 -0.167   27 -0.344
CINCINNATI     99  68 691 606 -0.071 78.152    9  0.061    9  0.104   13  0.053   10 0.5134   30  0.193   26 -0.165    1  0.272    8  0.149
ATLANTA        94  69 703 606 -0.035 78.580   10  0.056   10  0.100    8  0.076    9 0.5145   27  0.303   20 -0.054    6  0.207   14  0.064
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        95  80 768 703  0.018 88.072   11  0.022   11  0.081    7  0.095   11 0.5133   26  0.317   18 -0.024    5  0.214   11  0.119
CHI WHITE SOX  85  77 748 676 -0.002 80.220   12 -0.002   12  0.037   11  0.067   12 0.5063   29  0.227   25 -0.124    3  0.258    2  0.473
ST. LOUIS      95  80 822 702 -0.059 82.717   13 -0.004   13  0.032   12  0.066   13 0.5031    8  0.559    5  0.160   15 -0.027   20 -0.107
LA DODGERS     86  76 637 597 -0.036 78.174   14 -0.005   14  0.026   14  0.015   14 0.5027   23  0.348   23 -0.078    9  0.108   25 -0.280
SEATTLE        75  87 619 651  0.068 84.914   15 -0.011   15 -0.016   15  0.002   15 0.4998   12  0.511   10  0.052   16 -0.048   30 -0.656
PHILADELPHIA   81  81 684 680 -0.036 78.236   16 -0.012   16 -0.023   19 -0.024   17 0.4959   16  0.459   17 -0.021   14 -0.027   18 -0.022
ARIZONA        81  81 734 688 -0.044 77.618   17 -0.013   17 -0.028   16  0.001   18 0.4948   21  0.377   21 -0.068   11  0.069    5  0.287
MILWAUKEE      83  79 776 733 -0.075 75.639   18 -0.014   18 -0.029   18 -0.015   19 0.4932   14  0.494   13  0.019   17 -0.049    6  0.267
TORONTO        73  89 716 784  0.074 85.346   19 -0.015   19 -0.032   17 -0.009   16 0.4970   11  0.527    9  0.055   20 -0.074   10  0.121
PITTSBURGH     79  83 651 674 -0.059 76.801   20 -0.025   20 -0.058   23 -0.076   22 0.4890    4  0.592   12  0.049   27 -0.201   28 -0.431
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO      76  86 651 710 -0.030 78.723   21 -0.033   21 -0.069   24 -0.088   23 0.4883    7  0.568   14  0.015   26 -0.191   26 -0.307
KANSAS CITY    72  90 676 746  0.023 82.102   22 -0.037   22 -0.074   21 -0.045   21 0.4898   17  0.418   22 -0.078   13 -0.011   12  0.097
BOSTON         69  93 734 806  0.067 84.927   23 -0.039   23 -0.076   20 -0.031   20 0.4906   13  0.500   15  0.009   19 -0.070    4  0.341
NY METS        74  88 650 709 -0.014 79.736   24 -0.041   24 -0.078   22 -0.063   24 0.4881    5  0.579   11  0.050   25 -0.175   23 -0.222
CLEVELAND      68  94 667 845  0.038 83.204   25 -0.090   25 -0.106   28 -0.163   25 0.4846    2  0.704    7  0.072   30 -0.397   21 -0.184
MINNESOTA      66  96 701 832  0.034 82.910   26 -0.127   26 -0.128   25 -0.136   26 0.4815    6  0.570   19 -0.032   28 -0.241    9  0.138
MIAMI          69  93 609 724 -0.015 79.760   27 -0.130   27 -0.129   26 -0.146   27 0.4795   22  0.350   29 -0.237   18 -0.055   15  0.050
COLORADO       64  98 758 890 -0.016 79.657   28 -0.223   28 -0.179   27 -0.155   28 0.4721   19  0.405   27 -0.199   22 -0.111    1  0.779
CHI CUBS       61 101 613 759 -0.038 78.336   29 -0.245   29 -0.223   29 -0.185   29 0.4641   20  0.401   28 -0.233   23 -0.137   13  0.094
HOUSTON        55 107 583 794 -0.033 78.746   30 -0.256   30 -0.281   30 -0.254   30 0.4559   15  0.468   30 -0.243   29 -0.265   19 -0.082
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 105  73 787 696 -0.038 85.619    6  0.116    6  0.123   10  0.075    8 0.5167    3  0.647    2  0.252   21 -0.103   29 -0.488
LA DODGERS     86  76 637 597 -0.036 78.174   14 -0.005   14  0.026   14  0.015   14 0.5027   23  0.348   23 -0.078    9  0.108   25 -0.280
ARIZONA        81  81 734 688 -0.044 77.618   17 -0.013   17 -0.028   16  0.001   18 0.4948   21  0.377   21 -0.068   11  0.069    5  0.287
SAN DIEGO      76  86 651 710 -0.030 78.723   21 -0.033   21 -0.069   24 -0.088   23 0.4883    7  0.568   14  0.015   26 -0.191   26 -0.307
COLORADO       64  98 758 890 -0.016 79.657   28 -0.223   28 -0.179   27 -0.155   28 0.4721   19  0.405   27 -0.199   22 -0.111    1  0.779

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CINCINNATI     99  68 691 606 -0.071 78.152    9  0.061    9  0.104   13  0.053   10 0.5134   30  0.193   26 -0.165    1  0.272    8  0.149
ST. LOUIS      95  80 822 702 -0.059 82.717   13 -0.004   13  0.032   12  0.066   13 0.5031    8  0.559    5  0.160   15 -0.027   20 -0.107
MILWAUKEE      83  79 776 733 -0.075 75.639   18 -0.014   18 -0.029   18 -0.015   19 0.4932   14  0.494   13  0.019   17 -0.049    6  0.267
PITTSBURGH     79  83 651 674 -0.059 76.801   20 -0.025   20 -0.058   23 -0.076   22 0.4890    4  0.592   12  0.049   27 -0.201   28 -0.431
CHI CUBS       61 101 613 759 -0.038 78.336   29 -0.245   29 -0.223   29 -0.185   29 0.4641   20  0.401   28 -0.233   23 -0.137   13  0.094
HOUSTON        55 107 583 794 -0.033 78.746   30 -0.256   30 -0.281   30 -0.254   30 0.4559   15  0.468   30 -0.243   29 -0.265   19 -0.082

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    100  67 747 626 -0.039 80.249    5  0.146    5  0.134    6  0.100    7 0.5193   24  0.339   16 -0.001    7  0.200   16  0.046
ATLANTA        94  69 703 606 -0.035 78.580   10  0.056   10  0.100    8  0.076    9 0.5145   27  0.303   20 -0.054    6  0.207   14  0.064
PHILADELPHIA   81  81 684 680 -0.036 78.236   16 -0.012   16 -0.023   19 -0.024   17 0.4959   16  0.459   17 -0.021   14 -0.027   18 -0.022
NY METS        74  88 650 709 -0.014 79.736   24 -0.041   24 -0.078   22 -0.063   24 0.4881    5  0.579   11  0.050   25 -0.175   23 -0.222
MIAMI          69  93 609 724 -0.015 79.760   27 -0.130   27 -0.129   26 -0.146   27 0.4795   22  0.350   29 -0.237   18 -0.055   15  0.050

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND        96  71 724 631  0.055 86.458    3  0.186    3  0.156    4  0.124    2 0.5253   18  0.417    6  0.090    8  0.158   24 -0.278
TEXAS          93  70 809 712  0.036 83.128    4  0.149    4  0.135    3  0.134    4 0.5221   10  0.529    4  0.200   12  0.068    7  0.238
LA ANGELS      89  73 767 699  0.057 84.063    8  0.089    8  0.115    5  0.119    6 0.5198    1  0.755    1  0.404   24 -0.167   27 -0.344
SEATTLE        75  87 619 651  0.068 84.914   15 -0.011   15 -0.016   15  0.002   15 0.4998   12  0.511   10  0.052   16 -0.048   30 -0.656

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        95  80 768 703  0.018 88.072   11  0.022   11  0.081    7  0.095   11 0.5133   26  0.317   18 -0.024    5  0.214   11  0.119
CHI WHITE SOX  85  77 748 676 -0.002 80.220   12 -0.002   12  0.037   11  0.067   12 0.5063   29  0.227   25 -0.124    3  0.258    2  0.473
KANSAS CITY    72  90 676 746  0.023 82.102   22 -0.037   22 -0.074   21 -0.045   21 0.4898   17  0.418   22 -0.078   13 -0.011   12  0.097
CLEVELAND      68  94 667 845  0.038 83.204   25 -0.090   25 -0.106   28 -0.163   25 0.4846    2  0.704    7  0.072   30 -0.397   21 -0.184
MINNESOTA      66  96 701 832  0.034 82.910   26 -0.127   26 -0.128   25 -0.136   26 0.4815    6  0.570   19 -0.032   28 -0.241    9  0.138

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY YANKEES     98  73 826 697  0.061 88.926    1  0.204    2  0.159    1  0.177    1 0.5262    9  0.538    3  0.251   10  0.102   17 -0.020
BALTIMORE      96  72 727 722  0.070 88.070    2  0.188    1  0.159    9  0.075    3 0.5250   28  0.246   24 -0.102    4  0.251    3  0.356
TAMPA BAY      90  72 697 577  0.049 83.468    7  0.107    7  0.120    2  0.164    5 0.5206   25  0.335    8  0.060    2  0.269   22 -0.200
TORONTO        73  89 716 784  0.074 85.346   19 -0.015   19 -0.032   17 -0.009   16 0.4970   11  0.527    9  0.055   20 -0.074   10  0.121
BOSTON         69  93 734 806  0.067 84.927   23 -0.039   23 -0.076   20 -0.031   20 0.4906   13  0.500   15  0.009   19 -0.070    4  0.341

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    353 301 0.540    1  0.130
AL EAST    426 399 0.516    2  0.103
NL EAST    418 398 0.512    3 -0.015
NL WEST    412 414 0.499    4 -0.042
AL CENTRAL 386 437 0.469    5 -0.049
NL CENTRAL 472 518 0.477    6 -0.093

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.084 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:59 2020
games through: Sun Oct 28 2012

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