Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        108  70 925 700  0.039 91.551    1  0.244    1  0.214    1  0.244    1 0.5299    7  0.543    1  0.355    5  0.133   13  0.051
ST. LOUIS     106  73 839 651 -0.013 88.434    2  0.187    2  0.153    3  0.172    2 0.5223    5  0.569    2  0.307   13  0.037   24 -0.229
OAKLAND        98  69 782 642  0.006 83.727    3  0.183    3  0.152    4  0.138    3 0.5186    4  0.569    3  0.273   16  0.002   27 -0.278
TAMPA BAY      94  74 716 672  0.048 87.088    4  0.143    4  0.133    5  0.101    4 0.5183   17  0.403    8  0.087    8  0.116   22 -0.101
DETROIT        98  75 832 658  0.015 87.323    5  0.132    6  0.125    2  0.195    6 0.5163   25  0.308    7  0.100    2  0.290    1  0.352
PITTSBURGH     97  71 655 600 -0.007 83.484    6  0.127    5  0.126   11  0.073    5 0.5180   24  0.350   18  0.014    4  0.133   25 -0.241
CLEVELAND      92  71 745 666  0.012 82.144    7  0.106    7  0.117    7  0.095    9 0.5142    8  0.536    4  0.198   18 -0.009   19 -0.070
TEXAS          91  72 730 636  0.006 81.817    8  0.076    8  0.102    8  0.092   10 0.5120   21  0.388   10  0.065    7  0.119   14  0.035
ATLANTA        97  69 700 572 -0.069 78.349    9  0.063    9  0.095   10  0.076    7 0.5154   19  0.390   11  0.050   10  0.102   23 -0.192
LA DODGERS     97  75 688 617 -0.041 83.171   10  0.041   10  0.081   13  0.066    8 0.5143   23  0.365   16  0.018    9  0.113   26 -0.243
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CINCINNATI     90  73 700 595 -0.017 80.348   11  0.040   12  0.077    6  0.098   11 0.5120   20  0.389    9  0.071    6  0.125   21 -0.096
BALTIMORE      85  77 745 709  0.051 84.245   12  0.038   13  0.075    9  0.085   12 0.5109   10  0.477    6  0.135   14  0.034    7  0.182
NY YANKEES     85  77 650 671  0.056 84.688   13  0.034   11  0.077   14  0.015   13 0.5105   28  0.223   23 -0.148    3  0.179    5  0.240
KANSAS CITY    86  76 648 601  0.020 82.232   14  0.024   14  0.065   12  0.071   14 0.5072   29  0.146   24 -0.152    1  0.293    6  0.221
WASHINGTON     86  76 656 626 -0.061 77.133   15  0.004   15  0.010   17 -0.016   15 0.5030   22  0.376   19 -0.053   15  0.021   17  0.010
LA ANGELS      78  84 733 737  0.018 82.240   16 -0.001   16 -0.020   15  0.013   18 0.4950    1  0.600    5  0.177   24 -0.151   18 -0.027
ARIZONA        81  81 685 695 -0.037 78.755   17 -0.002   17 -0.026   18 -0.046   16 0.4992    9  0.496   15  0.022   22 -0.114   20 -0.085
TORONTO        74  88 712 756  0.062 85.119   18 -0.004   18 -0.031   16  0.006   17 0.4957   12  0.461   13  0.042   20 -0.030    3  0.257
SAN FRANCISCO  76  86 629 691 -0.028 79.357   19 -0.027   19 -0.073   20 -0.097   19 0.4923    3  0.578   12  0.046   28 -0.240   29 -0.351
SAN DIEGO      76  86 618 700 -0.035 78.968   20 -0.032   20 -0.077   26 -0.120   20 0.4915    2  0.593   14  0.037   29 -0.277   30 -0.415
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MILWAUKEE      74  88 640 687 -0.010 80.507   21 -0.033   21 -0.080   19 -0.050   21 0.4895   18  0.391   21 -0.075   19 -0.026   12  0.114
SEATTLE        71  91 624 754  0.030 83.187   22 -0.041   22 -0.085   21 -0.098   25 0.4853   14  0.426   22 -0.093   21 -0.103   16  0.013
COLORADO       74  88 706 760 -0.039 78.666   23 -0.066   23 -0.101   22 -0.101   22 0.4884   13  0.456   20 -0.068   23 -0.133    2  0.333
NY METS        74  88 619 684 -0.053 77.813   24 -0.083   25 -0.110   24 -0.109   23 0.4864    6  0.558   17  0.016   27 -0.234   28 -0.294
PHILADELPHIA   73  89 608 747 -0.034 79.142   25 -0.093   24 -0.109   28 -0.177   24 0.4857   16  0.416   26 -0.180   26 -0.174    9  0.138
MINNESOTA      66  96 614 788  0.042 84.027   26 -0.141   26 -0.130   27 -0.163   26 0.4787   15  0.421   25 -0.162   25 -0.165    8  0.146
CHI CUBS       66  96 602 689 -0.001 81.179   27 -0.197   27 -0.158   23 -0.104   27 0.4783   27  0.248   29 -0.247   11  0.039    4  0.251
CHI WHITE SOX  63  99 598 723  0.031 83.311   28 -0.212   28 -0.168   25 -0.117   28 0.4740   26  0.287   28 -0.229   17 -0.005   11  0.128
MIAMI          62 100 513 646 -0.041 78.650   29 -0.248   29 -0.227   29 -0.189   29 0.4698   30  0.139   30 -0.416   12  0.039   15  0.014
HOUSTON        51 111 610 849  0.049 84.615   30 -0.260   30 -0.286   30 -0.232   30 0.4575   11  0.472   27 -0.186   30 -0.278   10  0.136
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA DODGERS     97  75 688 617 -0.041 83.171   10  0.041   10  0.081   13  0.066    8 0.5143   23  0.365   16  0.018    9  0.113   26 -0.243
ARIZONA        81  81 685 695 -0.037 78.755   17 -0.002   17 -0.026   18 -0.046   16 0.4992    9  0.496   15  0.022   22 -0.114   20 -0.085
SAN FRANCISCO  76  86 629 691 -0.028 79.357   19 -0.027   19 -0.073   20 -0.097   19 0.4923    3  0.578   12  0.046   28 -0.240   29 -0.351
SAN DIEGO      76  86 618 700 -0.035 78.968   20 -0.032   20 -0.077   26 -0.120   20 0.4915    2  0.593   14  0.037   29 -0.277   30 -0.415
COLORADO       74  88 706 760 -0.039 78.666   23 -0.066   23 -0.101   22 -0.101   22 0.4884   13  0.456   20 -0.068   23 -0.133    2  0.333

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS     106  73 839 651 -0.013 88.434    2  0.187    2  0.153    3  0.172    2 0.5223    5  0.569    2  0.307   13  0.037   24 -0.229
PITTSBURGH     97  71 655 600 -0.007 83.484    6  0.127    5  0.126   11  0.073    5 0.5180   24  0.350   18  0.014    4  0.133   25 -0.241
CINCINNATI     90  73 700 595 -0.017 80.348   11  0.040   12  0.077    6  0.098   11 0.5120   20  0.389    9  0.071    6  0.125   21 -0.096
MILWAUKEE      74  88 640 687 -0.010 80.507   21 -0.033   21 -0.080   19 -0.050   21 0.4895   18  0.391   21 -0.075   19 -0.026   12  0.114
CHI CUBS       66  96 602 689 -0.001 81.179   27 -0.197   27 -0.158   23 -0.104   27 0.4783   27  0.248   29 -0.247   11  0.039    4  0.251

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA        97  69 700 572 -0.069 78.349    9  0.063    9  0.095   10  0.076    7 0.5154   19  0.390   11  0.050   10  0.102   23 -0.192
WASHINGTON     86  76 656 626 -0.061 77.133   15  0.004   15  0.010   17 -0.016   15 0.5030   22  0.376   19 -0.053   15  0.021   17  0.010
NY METS        74  88 619 684 -0.053 77.813   24 -0.083   25 -0.110   24 -0.109   23 0.4864    6  0.558   17  0.016   27 -0.234   28 -0.294
PHILADELPHIA   73  89 608 747 -0.034 79.142   25 -0.093   24 -0.109   28 -0.177   24 0.4857   16  0.416   26 -0.180   26 -0.174    9  0.138
MIAMI          62 100 513 646 -0.041 78.650   29 -0.248   29 -0.227   29 -0.189   29 0.4698   30  0.139   30 -0.416   12  0.039   15  0.014

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND        98  69 782 642  0.006 83.727    3  0.183    3  0.152    4  0.138    3 0.5186    4  0.569    3  0.273   16  0.002   27 -0.278
TEXAS          91  72 730 636  0.006 81.817    8  0.076    8  0.102    8  0.092   10 0.5120   21  0.388   10  0.065    7  0.119   14  0.035
LA ANGELS      78  84 733 737  0.018 82.240   16 -0.001   16 -0.020   15  0.013   18 0.4950    1  0.600    5  0.177   24 -0.151   18 -0.027
SEATTLE        71  91 624 754  0.030 83.187   22 -0.041   22 -0.085   21 -0.098   25 0.4853   14  0.426   22 -0.093   21 -0.103   16  0.013
HOUSTON        51 111 610 849  0.049 84.615   30 -0.260   30 -0.286   30 -0.232   30 0.4575   11  0.472   27 -0.186   30 -0.278   10  0.136

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        98  75 832 658  0.015 87.323    5  0.132    6  0.125    2  0.195    6 0.5163   25  0.308    7  0.100    2  0.290    1  0.352
CLEVELAND      92  71 745 666  0.012 82.144    7  0.106    7  0.117    7  0.095    9 0.5142    8  0.536    4  0.198   18 -0.009   19 -0.070
KANSAS CITY    86  76 648 601  0.020 82.232   14  0.024   14  0.065   12  0.071   14 0.5072   29  0.146   24 -0.152    1  0.293    6  0.221
MINNESOTA      66  96 614 788  0.042 84.027   26 -0.141   26 -0.130   27 -0.163   26 0.4787   15  0.421   25 -0.162   25 -0.165    8  0.146
CHI WHITE SOX  63  99 598 723  0.031 83.311   28 -0.212   28 -0.168   25 -0.117   28 0.4740   26  0.287   28 -0.229   17 -0.005   11  0.128

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        108  70 925 700  0.039 91.551    1  0.244    1  0.214    1  0.244    1 0.5299    7  0.543    1  0.355    5  0.133   13  0.051
TAMPA BAY      94  74 716 672  0.048 87.088    4  0.143    4  0.133    5  0.101    4 0.5183   17  0.403    8  0.087    8  0.116   22 -0.101
BALTIMORE      85  77 745 709  0.051 84.245   12  0.038   13  0.075    9  0.085   12 0.5109   10  0.477    6  0.135   14  0.034    7  0.182
NY YANKEES     85  77 650 671  0.056 84.688   13  0.034   11  0.077   14  0.015   13 0.5105   28  0.223   23 -0.148    3  0.179    5  0.240
TORONTO        74  88 712 756  0.062 85.119   18 -0.004   18 -0.031   16  0.006   17 0.4957   12  0.461   13  0.042   20 -0.030    3  0.257

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    446 386 0.536    1  0.118
NL CENTRAL 433 401 0.519    2  0.050
AL CENTRAL 405 417 0.493    3  0.021
AL WEST    389 427 0.477    4 -0.022
NL WEST    404 416 0.493    5 -0.078
NL EAST    392 422 0.482    6 -0.108

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.064 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:13 2020
games through: Wed Oct 30 2013

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.