Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       106  72 814 707  0.067 92.793    1  0.239    1  0.211    2  0.165    1 0.5297   14  0.454    4  0.173    6  0.158   13 -0.016
BLUE JAYS     98  75 943 727  0.066 90.017    2  0.205    2  0.160    1  0.261    3 0.5209    1  0.732    1  0.531   16 -0.010   17 -0.084
CARDINALS    101  65 664 545 -0.073 77.301    3  0.155    3  0.133    5  0.088    2 0.5232   29  0.233   21 -0.089    2  0.266   23 -0.171
PIRATES       98  65 697 600 -0.076 75.769    4  0.119    4  0.118   12  0.041    4 0.5204   25  0.383   16 -0.014    8  0.095   22 -0.156
YANKEES       87  76 764 701  0.085 86.132    5  0.106    6  0.113    4  0.116    7 0.5128    5  0.521    3  0.184   11  0.048   11  0.032
RANGERS       90  77 770 759  0.072 87.484    6  0.104    5  0.113    8  0.076    6 0.5132    9  0.488    7  0.113   12  0.038    5  0.212
CUBS         101  70 721 646 -0.065 80.219    7  0.096    7  0.109   13  0.039    5 0.5192   24  0.395   14 -0.006   10  0.083   15 -0.037
ASTROS        89  79 753 643  0.062 87.286    8  0.068    8  0.093    3  0.147    8 0.5115   20  0.430    5  0.133    5  0.161   19 -0.106
ANGELS        85  77 661 675  0.072 84.920    9  0.051    9  0.088   14  0.033   10 0.5098    7  0.516    8  0.096   19 -0.030   30 -0.290
TWINS         83  79 696 700  0.065 84.523   10  0.028   10  0.064   11  0.055    9 0.5100   10  0.472   10  0.079   13  0.031   12  0.005
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES       81  81 713 693  0.089 85.963   11  0.026   11  0.060    6  0.080   14 0.5053   27  0.316   18 -0.031    4  0.191    4  0.287
INDIANS       81  80 669 640  0.064 83.832   12  0.021   12  0.048    9  0.074   11 0.5078   30  0.162   26 -0.159    1  0.307    2  0.396
RAYS          80  82 644 642  0.087 85.786   13  0.020   13  0.047    7  0.078   15 0.5035   28  0.243   22 -0.092    3  0.248   10  0.046
DODGERS       94  74 687 620 -0.085 77.523   14  0.019   14  0.043   16  0.023   12 0.5067   26  0.355   20 -0.056    7  0.102   24 -0.185
METS          98  78 745 666 -0.090 80.895   15  0.016   15  0.036   18  0.006   13 0.5059   17  0.443   13  0.003   14  0.008   27 -0.211
RED SOX       78  84 748 753  0.085 85.655   16  0.014   16  0.026   10  0.060   17 0.5006   21  0.419   11  0.037    9  0.084    3  0.360
WHITE SOX     76  86 622 701  0.081 85.545   17  0.010   17  0.001   21 -0.017   16 0.5011   15  0.450   15 -0.013   18 -0.021   26 -0.209
MARINERS      76  86 656 726  0.070 84.860   18  0.009   18 -0.005   19 -0.000   20 0.4967    4  0.534    9  0.079   21 -0.080   28 -0.238
TIGERS        74  87 689 803  0.083 85.201   19  0.008   19 -0.014   23 -0.055   18 0.4987    2  0.721    2  0.205   30 -0.315   25 -0.187
GIANTS        84  78 696 627 -0.086 74.672   20  0.006   20 -0.027   17  0.006   19 0.4968   11  0.471   12  0.028   17 -0.016   29 -0.248
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NATIONALS     84  79 706 637 -0.106 73.933   21  0.001   21 -0.045   20 -0.015   21 0.4944   18  0.432   17 -0.026   15 -0.003   14 -0.023
DIAMONDBACKS  79  83 720 713 -0.076 75.507   22 -0.015   22 -0.071   22 -0.054   22 0.4903   12  0.467   19 -0.035   20 -0.073    8  0.126
ATHLETICS     68  94 694 729  0.073 84.991   23 -0.028   23 -0.085   15  0.024   23 0.4862    3  0.563    6  0.130   22 -0.082   20 -0.113
PADRES        74  88 650 731 -0.065 76.325   24 -0.088   24 -0.117   26 -0.155   24 0.4833    8  0.492   23 -0.114   27 -0.196   16 -0.066
MARLINS       71  91 613 678 -0.092 74.669   25 -0.180   25 -0.166   25 -0.151   26 0.4768   23  0.406   28 -0.187   23 -0.116   18 -0.098
BREWERS       68  94 655 737 -0.049 77.366   26 -0.182   26 -0.168   24 -0.139   25 0.4802   19  0.430   25 -0.153   24 -0.125    6  0.198
ROCKIES       68  94 737 844 -0.065 76.311   27 -0.193   27 -0.179   27 -0.161   27 0.4749   13  0.456   24 -0.152   26 -0.171    1  0.620
BRAVES        67  95 573 760 -0.075 75.873   28 -0.207   28 -0.196   30 -0.254   29 0.4714   16  0.444   30 -0.256   28 -0.253   21 -0.118
REDS          64  98 640 754 -0.043 77.774   29 -0.210   29 -0.205   28 -0.170   28 0.4748   22  0.418   29 -0.194   25 -0.146    7  0.194
PHILLIES      63  99 626 809 -0.075 75.877   30 -0.218   30 -0.237   29 -0.250   30 0.4662    6  0.518   27 -0.185   29 -0.315    9  0.079
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS       94  74 687 620 -0.085 77.523   14  0.019   14  0.043   16  0.023   12 0.5067   26  0.355   20 -0.056    7  0.102   24 -0.185
GIANTS        84  78 696 627 -0.086 74.672   20  0.006   20 -0.027   17  0.006   19 0.4968   11  0.471   12  0.028   17 -0.016   29 -0.248
DIAMONDBACKS  79  83 720 713 -0.076 75.507   22 -0.015   22 -0.071   22 -0.054   22 0.4903   12  0.467   19 -0.035   20 -0.073    8  0.126
PADRES        74  88 650 731 -0.065 76.325   24 -0.088   24 -0.117   26 -0.155   24 0.4833    8  0.492   23 -0.114   27 -0.196   16 -0.066
ROCKIES       68  94 737 844 -0.065 76.311   27 -0.193   27 -0.179   27 -0.161   27 0.4749   13  0.456   24 -0.152   26 -0.171    1  0.620

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS    101  65 664 545 -0.073 77.301    3  0.155    3  0.133    5  0.088    2 0.5232   29  0.233   21 -0.089    2  0.266   23 -0.171
PIRATES       98  65 697 600 -0.076 75.769    4  0.119    4  0.118   12  0.041    4 0.5204   25  0.383   16 -0.014    8  0.095   22 -0.156
CUBS         101  70 721 646 -0.065 80.219    7  0.096    7  0.109   13  0.039    5 0.5192   24  0.395   14 -0.006   10  0.083   15 -0.037
BREWERS       68  94 655 737 -0.049 77.366   26 -0.182   26 -0.168   24 -0.139   25 0.4802   19  0.430   25 -0.153   24 -0.125    6  0.198
REDS          64  98 640 754 -0.043 77.774   29 -0.210   29 -0.205   28 -0.170   28 0.4748   22  0.418   29 -0.194   25 -0.146    7  0.194

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS          98  78 745 666 -0.090 80.895   15  0.016   15  0.036   18  0.006   13 0.5059   17  0.443   13  0.003   14  0.008   27 -0.211
NATIONALS     84  79 706 637 -0.106 73.933   21  0.001   21 -0.045   20 -0.015   21 0.4944   18  0.432   17 -0.026   15 -0.003   14 -0.023
MARLINS       71  91 613 678 -0.092 74.669   25 -0.180   25 -0.166   25 -0.151   26 0.4768   23  0.406   28 -0.187   23 -0.116   18 -0.098
BRAVES        67  95 573 760 -0.075 75.873   28 -0.207   28 -0.196   30 -0.254   29 0.4714   16  0.444   30 -0.256   28 -0.253   21 -0.118
PHILLIES      63  99 626 809 -0.075 75.877   30 -0.218   30 -0.237   29 -0.250   30 0.4662    6  0.518   27 -0.185   29 -0.315    9  0.079

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS       90  77 770 759  0.072 87.484    6  0.104    5  0.113    8  0.076    6 0.5132    9  0.488    7  0.113   12  0.038    5  0.212
ASTROS        89  79 753 643  0.062 87.286    8  0.068    8  0.093    3  0.147    8 0.5115   20  0.430    5  0.133    5  0.161   19 -0.106
ANGELS        85  77 661 675  0.072 84.920    9  0.051    9  0.088   14  0.033   10 0.5098    7  0.516    8  0.096   19 -0.030   30 -0.290
MARINERS      76  86 656 726  0.070 84.860   18  0.009   18 -0.005   19 -0.000   20 0.4967    4  0.534    9  0.079   21 -0.080   28 -0.238
ATHLETICS     68  94 694 729  0.073 84.991   23 -0.028   23 -0.085   15  0.024   23 0.4862    3  0.563    6  0.130   22 -0.082   20 -0.113

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       106  72 814 707  0.067 92.793    1  0.239    1  0.211    2  0.165    1 0.5297   14  0.454    4  0.173    6  0.158   13 -0.016
TWINS         83  79 696 700  0.065 84.523   10  0.028   10  0.064   11  0.055    9 0.5100   10  0.472   10  0.079   13  0.031   12  0.005
INDIANS       81  80 669 640  0.064 83.832   12  0.021   12  0.048    9  0.074   11 0.5078   30  0.162   26 -0.159    1  0.307    2  0.396
WHITE SOX     76  86 622 701  0.081 85.545   17  0.010   17  0.001   21 -0.017   16 0.5011   15  0.450   15 -0.013   18 -0.021   26 -0.209
TIGERS        74  87 689 803  0.083 85.201   19  0.008   19 -0.014   23 -0.055   18 0.4987    2  0.721    2  0.205   30 -0.315   25 -0.187

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS     98  75 943 727  0.066 90.017    2  0.205    2  0.160    1  0.261    3 0.5209    1  0.732    1  0.531   16 -0.010   17 -0.084
YANKEES       87  76 764 701  0.085 86.132    5  0.106    6  0.113    4  0.116    7 0.5128    5  0.521    3  0.184   11  0.048   11  0.032
ORIOLES       81  81 713 693  0.089 85.963   11  0.026   11  0.060    6  0.080   14 0.5053   27  0.316   18 -0.031    4  0.191    4  0.287
RAYS          80  82 644 642  0.087 85.786   13  0.020   13  0.047    7  0.078   15 0.5035   28  0.243   22 -0.092    3  0.248   10  0.046
RED SOX       78  84 748 753  0.085 85.655   16  0.014   16  0.026   10  0.060   17 0.5006   21  0.419   11  0.037    9  0.084    3  0.360

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    424 398 0.516    1  0.156
AL WEST    408 413 0.497    2  0.074
AL CENTRAL 420 404 0.510    3  0.058
NL CENTRAL 432 392 0.524    4 -0.037
NL WEST    399 417 0.489    5 -0.090
NL EAST    383 442 0.464    6 -0.175

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.092 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 13:13:49 2020
games through: Sun Nov  1 2015

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