Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         114  64   1 883 613 -0.039 86.600    1  0.257    1  0.196    1  0.237    1 0.5295   14  0.536    1  0.274    4  0.199   30 -0.430
INDIANS      104  72   0 831 717  0.014 88.964    2  0.197    2  0.150    3  0.134    2 0.5250   28  0.246   21 -0.078    2  0.346    2  0.421
RANGERS       95  70   0 775 779  0.023 84.187    3  0.130    3  0.127   12  0.026    3 0.5214   16  0.507   10  0.037   15  0.015    7  0.236
RED SOX       93  72   0 885 709  0.029 84.425    4  0.113    4  0.116    2  0.180    4 0.5198   18  0.484    3  0.171    5  0.190    3  0.408
BLUE JAYS     94  77   0 794 690  0.037 88.041    5  0.075    6  0.099    4  0.128    5 0.5173   29  0.237   23 -0.091    1  0.346    5  0.369
ORIOLES       89  74   0 746 720  0.052 84.964    6  0.069    5  0.100    6  0.071    6 0.5164   15  0.531    8  0.104   12  0.038   14  0.014
NATIONALS     97  70   0 787 631 -0.064 79.233    7  0.044    7  0.084    5  0.111    7 0.5134   12  0.537    6  0.149    9  0.073   23 -0.226
DODGERS       96  77   0 761 693 -0.021 85.151    8  0.026    8  0.071    9  0.041   12 0.5079   22  0.464   14  0.013   10  0.069   25 -0.246
YANKEES       84  78   0 680 702  0.055 84.783    9  0.018    9  0.060   14  0.006   10 0.5098   26  0.299   28 -0.163    7  0.175    8  0.220
MARINERS      86  76   0 768 707  0.016 82.124   10  0.016   11  0.055    7  0.060    8 0.5111    8  0.600    4  0.158   16 -0.038   21 -0.133
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS        86  75   0 749 721  0.008 81.170   11  0.016   10  0.055   13  0.025    9 0.5106   19  0.482   15  0.013   13  0.037   10  0.137
ASTROS        84  78   0 724 701  0.019 82.356   12  0.010   12  0.038   11  0.035   11 0.5084    6  0.619    5  0.151   17 -0.081   29 -0.415
GIANTS        89  78   0 731 648 -0.032 81.472   13  0.008   13  0.030    8  0.057   15 0.5024   30  0.236   27 -0.163    3  0.277   11  0.116
CARDINALS     86  76   0 779 712 -0.031 79.103   14  0.007   14  0.027   10  0.037   14 0.5032    1  0.703    2  0.235   25 -0.161   24 -0.232
METS          87  76   0 671 620 -0.054 78.119   15  0.006   15  0.017   15  0.005   16 0.5024   25  0.348   25 -0.123    8  0.134   19 -0.122
ROYALS        81  81   0 675 712  0.016 82.228   16  0.004   16  0.008   18 -0.017   13 0.5033   27  0.260   30 -0.218    6  0.183    6  0.314
WHITE SOX     78  84   0 686 715  0.021 82.553   17  0.002   17 -0.016   17 -0.008   17 0.4996   24  0.441   19 -0.056   11  0.040   15 -0.035
PIRATES       78  83   1 729 758 -0.018 80.121   18 -0.001   18 -0.035   21 -0.047   19 0.4931   11  0.559   16  0.011   21 -0.106   16 -0.041
MARLINS       79  82   0 655 682 -0.046 77.839   19 -0.003   19 -0.043   22 -0.056   20 0.4925    9  0.572   13  0.016   24 -0.127   28 -0.397
ANGELS        74  88   0 717 727  0.032 83.237   20 -0.005   20 -0.047   16  0.004   18 0.4954    5  0.626    7  0.126   22 -0.119   22 -0.224
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       75  87   0 845 860 -0.033 79.102   21 -0.024   21 -0.076   20 -0.032   23 0.4860   10  0.562   11  0.030   19 -0.093    1  0.584
RAYS          68  94   0 672 713  0.057 84.889   22 -0.040   22 -0.087   19 -0.020   22 0.4874   23  0.449   20 -0.061   14  0.022   17 -0.066
BREWERS       73  89   0 671 733 -0.021 80.017   23 -0.040   23 -0.088   24 -0.093   24 0.4844   17  0.501   22 -0.088   20 -0.099   20 -0.130
ATHLETICS     69  93   0 653 761  0.040 83.868   24 -0.043   24 -0.089   23 -0.087   21 0.4879    7  0.616   12  0.026   27 -0.200   26 -0.322
PHILLIES      71  91   0 610 796 -0.027 79.709   25 -0.093   25 -0.113   30 -0.191   25 0.4808    4  0.644   18 -0.050   30 -0.331   27 -0.364
DIAMONDBACKS  69  93   0 752 890 -0.012 80.591   26 -0.109   26 -0.121   27 -0.136   27 0.4778   13  0.536   24 -0.098   26 -0.173    4  0.398
REDS          68  94   0 716 854 -0.002 81.311   27 -0.117   27 -0.124   26 -0.131   26 0.4790    2  0.702    9  0.066   29 -0.328   18 -0.078
PADRES        68  94   0 686 770 -0.018 80.181   28 -0.137   28 -0.133   25 -0.105   29 0.4764   20  0.474   26 -0.124   18 -0.087   12  0.053
BRAVES        68  93   0 649 779 -0.033 78.830   29 -0.153   29 -0.138   29 -0.150   28 0.4771   21  0.468   29 -0.174   23 -0.126   13  0.038
TWINS         59 103   0 722 889  0.032 83.450   30 -0.232   30 -0.187   28 -0.150   30 0.4726    3  0.653   17 -0.001   28 -0.298    9  0.151
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS       96  77   0 761 693 -0.021 85.151    8  0.026    8  0.071    9  0.041   12 0.5079   22  0.464   14  0.013   10  0.069   25 -0.246
GIANTS        89  78   0 731 648 -0.032 81.472   13  0.008   13  0.030    8  0.057   15 0.5024   30  0.236   27 -0.163    3  0.277   11  0.116
ROCKIES       75  87   0 845 860 -0.033 79.102   21 -0.024   21 -0.076   20 -0.032   23 0.4860   10  0.562   11  0.030   19 -0.093    1  0.584
DIAMONDBACKS  69  93   0 752 890 -0.012 80.591   26 -0.109   26 -0.121   27 -0.136   27 0.4778   13  0.536   24 -0.098   26 -0.173    4  0.398
PADRES        68  94   0 686 770 -0.018 80.181   28 -0.137   28 -0.133   25 -0.105   29 0.4764   20  0.474   26 -0.124   18 -0.087   12  0.053

NL CENTRAL
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         114  64   1 883 613 -0.039 86.600    1  0.257    1  0.196    1  0.237    1 0.5295   14  0.536    1  0.274    4  0.199   30 -0.430
CARDINALS     86  76   0 779 712 -0.031 79.103   14  0.007   14  0.027   10  0.037   14 0.5032    1  0.703    2  0.235   25 -0.161   24 -0.232
PIRATES       78  83   1 729 758 -0.018 80.121   18 -0.001   18 -0.035   21 -0.047   19 0.4931   11  0.559   16  0.011   21 -0.106   16 -0.041
BREWERS       73  89   0 671 733 -0.021 80.017   23 -0.040   23 -0.088   24 -0.093   24 0.4844   17  0.501   22 -0.088   20 -0.099   20 -0.130
REDS          68  94   0 716 854 -0.002 81.311   27 -0.117   27 -0.124   26 -0.131   26 0.4790    2  0.702    9  0.066   29 -0.328   18 -0.078

NL EAST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NATIONALS     97  70   0 787 631 -0.064 79.233    7  0.044    7  0.084    5  0.111    7 0.5134   12  0.537    6  0.149    9  0.073   23 -0.226
METS          87  76   0 671 620 -0.054 78.119   15  0.006   15  0.017   15  0.005   16 0.5024   25  0.348   25 -0.123    8  0.134   19 -0.122
MARLINS       79  82   0 655 682 -0.046 77.839   19 -0.003   19 -0.043   22 -0.056   20 0.4925    9  0.572   13  0.016   24 -0.127   28 -0.397
PHILLIES      71  91   0 610 796 -0.027 79.709   25 -0.093   25 -0.113   30 -0.191   25 0.4808    4  0.644   18 -0.050   30 -0.331   27 -0.364
BRAVES        68  93   0 649 779 -0.033 78.830   29 -0.153   29 -0.138   29 -0.150   28 0.4771   21  0.468   29 -0.174   23 -0.126   13  0.038

AL WEST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS       95  70   0 775 779  0.023 84.187    3  0.130    3  0.127   12  0.026    3 0.5214   16  0.507   10  0.037   15  0.015    7  0.236
MARINERS      86  76   0 768 707  0.016 82.124   10  0.016   11  0.055    7  0.060    8 0.5111    8  0.600    4  0.158   16 -0.038   21 -0.133
ASTROS        84  78   0 724 701  0.019 82.356   12  0.010   12  0.038   11  0.035   11 0.5084    6  0.619    5  0.151   17 -0.081   29 -0.415
ANGELS        74  88   0 717 727  0.032 83.237   20 -0.005   20 -0.047   16  0.004   18 0.4954    5  0.626    7  0.126   22 -0.119   22 -0.224
ATHLETICS     69  93   0 653 761  0.040 83.868   24 -0.043   24 -0.089   23 -0.087   21 0.4879    7  0.616   12  0.026   27 -0.200   26 -0.322

AL CENTRAL
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANS      104  72   0 831 717  0.014 88.964    2  0.197    2  0.150    3  0.134    2 0.5250   28  0.246   21 -0.078    2  0.346    2  0.421
TIGERS        86  75   0 749 721  0.008 81.170   11  0.016   10  0.055   13  0.025    9 0.5106   19  0.482   15  0.013   13  0.037   10  0.137
ROYALS        81  81   0 675 712  0.016 82.228   16  0.004   16  0.008   18 -0.017   13 0.5033   27  0.260   30 -0.218    6  0.183    6  0.314
WHITE SOX     78  84   0 686 715  0.021 82.553   17  0.002   17 -0.016   17 -0.008   17 0.4996   24  0.441   19 -0.056   11  0.040   15 -0.035
TWINS         59 103   0 722 889  0.032 83.450   30 -0.232   30 -0.187   28 -0.150   30 0.4726    3  0.653   17 -0.001   28 -0.298    9  0.151

AL EAST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX       93  72   0 885 709  0.029 84.425    4  0.113    4  0.116    2  0.180    4 0.5198   18  0.484    3  0.171    5  0.190    3  0.408
BLUE JAYS     94  77   0 794 690  0.037 88.041    5  0.075    6  0.099    4  0.128    5 0.5173   29  0.237   23 -0.091    1  0.346    5  0.369
ORIOLES       89  74   0 746 720  0.052 84.964    6  0.069    5  0.100    6  0.071    6 0.5164   15  0.531    8  0.104   12  0.038   14  0.014
YANKEES       84  78   0 680 702  0.055 84.783    9  0.018    9  0.060   14  0.006   10 0.5098   26  0.299   28 -0.163    7  0.175    8  0.220
RAYS          68  94   0 672 713  0.057 84.889   22 -0.040   22 -0.087   19 -0.020   22 0.4874   23  0.449   20 -0.061   14  0.022   17 -0.066

DIVISION     W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    428 395   0 0.520    1  0.104
AL WEST    408 405   0 0.502    2  0.012
NL CENTRAL 419 406   2 0.508    3 -0.001
AL CENTRAL 408 415   0 0.496    4 -0.004
NL WEST    397 429   0 0.481    5 -0.049
NL EAST    402 412   0 0.494    6 -0.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.065 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 13:14:00 2020
games through: Wed Nov  2 2016

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