Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      119  57 960 698 -0.012 85.934    1  0.309    1  0.344    2  0.277    1 0.5412   12  0.522    2  0.309    2  0.245    9  0.129
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.001 83.914    2  0.256    2  0.257    1  0.301    2 0.5326   29  0.316    7  0.153    1  0.448   17  0.004
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.027 80.779    3  0.232    3  0.194    4  0.199    3 0.5248   17  0.468    5  0.182    6  0.216    4  0.227
BREWERS      102  71 791 684  0.016 86.960    4  0.230    4  0.189    6  0.140    5 0.5227   25  0.400    9  0.064    5  0.216   15  0.019
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.006 80.384    5  0.222    5  0.183    5  0.156    4 0.5231    3  0.667    1  0.326   14 -0.014   27 -0.284
CUBS          95  69 762 647  0.001 81.462    6  0.190    6  0.155    7  0.129    6 0.5190   26  0.374   12  0.030    3  0.229    8  0.130
DODGERS      100  79 863 670  0.032 91.126    7  0.177    7  0.142    3  0.221    7 0.5185    9  0.541    3  0.270    9  0.171   26 -0.236
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.040 85.635    8  0.129    8  0.129   12  0.080    8 0.5157   23  0.401   16  0.004   10  0.155    2  0.450
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.016 81.659    9  0.083    9  0.108   17 -0.012    9 0.5134    8  0.542   11  0.038   19 -0.063   28 -0.287
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.008 82.933   10  0.067   10  0.099    9  0.105   10 0.5124   24  0.401   13  0.030    8  0.181   10  0.127
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.022 78.971   11  0.053   11  0.090   14  0.069   11 0.5117   22  0.408   17 -0.001   11  0.138   23 -0.114
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.005 80.797   12  0.047   12  0.086   11  0.083   12 0.5107    5  0.614    4  0.202   18 -0.036   24 -0.150
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.035 82.719   13  0.011   13  0.039   10  0.090   13 0.5050   28  0.331   22 -0.045    4  0.226   11  0.087
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.084 76.290   14  0.009   14  0.035    8  0.107   15 0.5031   27  0.363   18 -0.001    7  0.215    3  0.244
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.013 80.906   15  0.006   15  0.028   15  0.019   14 0.5033   10  0.537    8  0.065   16 -0.026   25 -0.199
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.004 80.207   16  0.001   16  0.009   13  0.069   16 0.5014   15  0.480   10  0.063   13  0.075    7  0.134
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.015 81.626   17 -0.001   17 -0.000   16 -0.004   17 0.5008   14  0.503   15  0.011   15 -0.019   19 -0.022
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.008 81.188   18 -0.002   18 -0.006   19 -0.035   18 0.4989   16  0.477   21 -0.044   17 -0.026   20 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.013 81.505   19 -0.011   19 -0.038   18 -0.029   19 0.4953    2  0.701    6  0.175   25 -0.233   29 -0.598
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.051 84.038   20 -0.021   20 -0.057   20 -0.063   20 0.4927   30  0.310   27 -0.215   12  0.090   16  0.004
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.068 76.424   21 -0.055   21 -0.089   21 -0.087   22 0.4872    7  0.544   20 -0.034   22 -0.139   12  0.086
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.000 81.023   22 -0.070   22 -0.097   25 -0.157   21 0.4883    4  0.648   19 -0.005   27 -0.309   22 -0.060
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.054 84.243   23 -0.153   23 -0.140   24 -0.136   24 0.4823   21  0.410   26 -0.204   20 -0.069   14  0.053
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.034 83.012   24 -0.155   24 -0.141   22 -0.121   25 0.4822   11  0.535   23 -0.077   23 -0.165    5  0.170
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.024 82.458   25 -0.170   25 -0.150   23 -0.127   23 0.4825   20  0.428   24 -0.180   21 -0.075    1  0.538
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.036 82.731   26 -0.213   26 -0.185   26 -0.217   26 0.4766    1  0.735   14  0.021   30 -0.455   30 -0.610
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.055 77.572   27 -0.241   27 -0.250   27 -0.259   27 0.4673   18  0.460   28 -0.282   26 -0.235   21 -0.038
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.050 77.920   28 -0.246   28 -0.269   28 -0.264   28 0.4649    6  0.553   25 -0.203   28 -0.325   18  0.003
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.052 77.780   29 -0.271   29 -0.321   29 -0.268   29 0.4592   19  0.437   30 -0.312   24 -0.224    6  0.157
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.019 82.618   30 -0.413   30 -0.402   30 -0.322   30 0.4525   13  0.509   29 -0.302   29 -0.342   13  0.060
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      100  79 863 670  0.032 91.126    7  0.177    7  0.142    3  0.221    7 0.5185    9  0.541    3  0.270    9  0.171   26 -0.236
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.040 85.635    8  0.129    8  0.129   12  0.080    8 0.5157   23  0.401   16  0.004   10  0.155    2  0.450
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.035 82.719   13  0.011   13  0.039   10  0.090   13 0.5050   28  0.331   22 -0.045    4  0.226   11  0.087
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.051 84.038   20 -0.021   20 -0.057   20 -0.063   20 0.4927   30  0.310   27 -0.215   12  0.090   16  0.004
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.054 84.243   23 -0.153   23 -0.140   24 -0.136   24 0.4823   21  0.410   26 -0.204   20 -0.069   14  0.053

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      102  71 791 684  0.016 86.960    4  0.230    4  0.189    6  0.140    5 0.5227   25  0.400    9  0.064    5  0.216   15  0.019
CUBS          95  69 762 647  0.001 81.462    6  0.190    6  0.155    7  0.129    6 0.5190   26  0.374   12  0.030    3  0.229    8  0.130
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.005 80.797   12  0.047   12  0.086   11  0.083   12 0.5107    5  0.614    4  0.202   18 -0.036   24 -0.150
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.013 80.906   15  0.006   15  0.028   15  0.019   14 0.5033   10  0.537    8  0.065   16 -0.026   25 -0.199
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.034 83.012   24 -0.155   24 -0.141   22 -0.121   25 0.4822   11  0.535   23 -0.077   23 -0.165    5  0.170

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.008 82.933   10  0.067   10  0.099    9  0.105   10 0.5124   24  0.401   13  0.030    8  0.181   10  0.127
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.004 80.207   16  0.001   16  0.009   13  0.069   16 0.5014   15  0.480   10  0.063   13  0.075    7  0.134
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.008 81.188   18 -0.002   18 -0.006   19 -0.035   18 0.4989   16  0.477   21 -0.044   17 -0.026   20 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.013 81.505   19 -0.011   19 -0.038   18 -0.029   19 0.4953    2  0.701    6  0.175   25 -0.233   29 -0.598
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.036 82.731   26 -0.213   26 -0.185   26 -0.217   26 0.4766    1  0.735   14  0.021   30 -0.455   30 -0.610

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.001 83.914    2  0.256    2  0.257    1  0.301    2 0.5326   29  0.316    7  0.153    1  0.448   17  0.004
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.006 80.384    5  0.222    5  0.183    5  0.156    4 0.5231    3  0.667    1  0.326   14 -0.014   27 -0.284
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.016 81.659    9  0.083    9  0.108   17 -0.012    9 0.5134    8  0.542   11  0.038   19 -0.063   28 -0.287
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.015 81.626   17 -0.001   17 -0.000   16 -0.004   17 0.5008   14  0.503   15  0.011   15 -0.019   19 -0.022
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.024 82.458   25 -0.170   25 -0.150   23 -0.127   23 0.4825   20  0.428   24 -0.180   21 -0.075    1  0.538

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.084 76.290   14  0.009   14  0.035    8  0.107   15 0.5031   27  0.363   18 -0.001    7  0.215    3  0.244
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.068 76.424   21 -0.055   21 -0.089   21 -0.087   22 0.4872    7  0.544   20 -0.034   22 -0.139   12  0.086
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.055 77.572   27 -0.241   27 -0.250   27 -0.259   27 0.4673   18  0.460   28 -0.282   26 -0.235   21 -0.038
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.050 77.920   28 -0.246   28 -0.269   28 -0.264   28 0.4649    6  0.553   25 -0.203   28 -0.325   18  0.003
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.052 77.780   29 -0.271   29 -0.321   29 -0.268   29 0.4592   19  0.437   30 -0.312   24 -0.224    6  0.157

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      119  57 960 698 -0.012 85.934    1  0.309    1  0.344    2  0.277    1 0.5412   12  0.522    2  0.309    2  0.245    9  0.129
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.027 80.779    3  0.232    3  0.194    4  0.199    3 0.5248   17  0.468    5  0.182    6  0.216    4  0.227
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.022 78.971   11  0.053   11  0.090   14  0.069   11 0.5117   22  0.408   17 -0.001   11  0.138   23 -0.114
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.000 81.023   22 -0.070   22 -0.097   25 -0.157   21 0.4883    4  0.648   19 -0.005   27 -0.309   22 -0.060
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.019 82.618   30 -0.413   30 -0.402   30 -0.322   30 0.4525   13  0.509   29 -0.302   29 -0.342   13  0.060

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    440 379 0.537    1  0.074
NL CENTRAL 434 388 0.528    2  0.060
NL WEST    413 419 0.496    3  0.045
AL EAST    431 398 0.520    4  0.016
NL EAST    393 420 0.483    5 -0.025
AL CENTRAL 353 460 0.434    6 -0.183

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.070 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:06:02 2024
games through: Sun Oct 28 2018

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