Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      119  57 960 698 -0.013 85.942    1  0.309    1  0.343    2  0.276    1 0.5412   12  0.522    2  0.308    2  0.244    9  0.129
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.002 83.918    2  0.257    2  0.255    1  0.300    2 0.5326   29  0.316    7  0.152    1  0.447   17  0.004
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.028 80.787    3  0.233    3  0.193    4  0.198    3 0.5248   17  0.468    5  0.181    6  0.215    4  0.227
BREWERS      102  71 791 684  0.015 86.956    4  0.230    4  0.188    6  0.139    5 0.5227   25  0.400    9  0.063    5  0.215   15  0.019
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.007 80.388    5  0.223    5  0.182    5  0.155    4 0.5231    3  0.667    1  0.325   14 -0.016   27 -0.284
CUBS          95  69 762 647 -0.000 81.459    6  0.189    6  0.154    7  0.128    6 0.5190   26  0.374   12  0.029    3  0.227    8  0.130
DODGERS      100  79 863 670  0.031 91.124    7  0.176    7  0.141    3  0.219    7 0.5185    9  0.541    3  0.269    9  0.170   26 -0.236
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.039 85.633    8  0.127    8  0.128   12  0.078    8 0.5157   23  0.401   16  0.003   10  0.154    2  0.450
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.015 81.666    9  0.082    9  0.107   17 -0.014    9 0.5134    8  0.542   11  0.037   19 -0.064   28 -0.287
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.007 82.933   10  0.066   10  0.098    9  0.104   10 0.5124   24  0.401   13  0.028    8  0.180   10  0.127
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.023 78.979   11  0.052   11  0.089   14  0.068   11 0.5117   22  0.408   17 -0.002   11  0.137   23 -0.114
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.004 80.796   12  0.047   12  0.085   11  0.082   12 0.5107    5  0.614    4  0.201   18 -0.037   24 -0.150
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.033 82.717   13  0.011   13  0.038   10  0.089   13 0.5050   28  0.331   22 -0.046    4  0.224   11  0.087
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.085 76.294   14  0.010   14  0.034    8  0.106   15 0.5031   27  0.363   18 -0.002    7  0.214    3  0.244
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.012 80.906   15  0.007   15  0.027   15  0.018   14 0.5033   10  0.537    8  0.064   16 -0.028   25 -0.199
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.006 80.205   16  0.002   16  0.008   13  0.068   16 0.5014   15  0.480   10  0.062   13  0.074    7  0.134
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.014 81.631   17  0.000   17 -0.001   16 -0.005   17 0.5008   14  0.503   15  0.010   15 -0.020   19 -0.022
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.007 81.186   18 -0.001   18 -0.007   19 -0.037   18 0.4989   16  0.477   21 -0.046   17 -0.028   20 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.012 81.506   19 -0.010   19 -0.039   18 -0.030   19 0.4953    2  0.701    6  0.174   25 -0.234   29 -0.598
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.050 84.033   20 -0.021   20 -0.058   20 -0.064   20 0.4927   30  0.310   27 -0.216   12  0.089   16  0.004
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.069 76.430   21 -0.056   21 -0.090   21 -0.088   22 0.4872    7  0.544   20 -0.035   22 -0.140   12  0.086
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.001 81.030   22 -0.070   22 -0.098   25 -0.158   21 0.4883    4  0.648   19 -0.006   27 -0.310   22 -0.060
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.052 84.241   23 -0.154   23 -0.141   24 -0.138   24 0.4823   21  0.410   26 -0.205   20 -0.070   14  0.053
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.033 83.012   24 -0.156   24 -0.142   22 -0.122   25 0.4822   11  0.535   23 -0.078   23 -0.167    5  0.170
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.023 82.461   25 -0.170   25 -0.151   23 -0.129   23 0.4825   20  0.428   24 -0.181   21 -0.076    1  0.538
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.035 82.732   26 -0.213   26 -0.186   26 -0.218   26 0.4766    1  0.735   14  0.020   30 -0.456   30 -0.610
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.057 77.576   27 -0.240   27 -0.251   27 -0.260   27 0.4673   18  0.460   28 -0.284   26 -0.236   21 -0.038
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.051 77.924   28 -0.245   28 -0.270   28 -0.265   28 0.4649    6  0.553   25 -0.204   28 -0.326   18  0.003
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.053 77.787   29 -0.271   29 -0.322   29 -0.269   29 0.4592   19  0.437   30 -0.313   24 -0.225    6  0.157
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.018 82.626   30 -0.414   30 -0.403   30 -0.323   30 0.4525   13  0.509   29 -0.303   29 -0.343   13  0.060
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      100  79 863 670  0.031 91.124    7  0.176    7  0.141    3  0.219    7 0.5185    9  0.541    3  0.269    9  0.170   26 -0.236
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.039 85.633    8  0.127    8  0.128   12  0.078    8 0.5157   23  0.401   16  0.003   10  0.154    2  0.450
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.033 82.717   13  0.011   13  0.038   10  0.089   13 0.5050   28  0.331   22 -0.046    4  0.224   11  0.087
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.050 84.033   20 -0.021   20 -0.058   20 -0.064   20 0.4927   30  0.310   27 -0.216   12  0.089   16  0.004
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.052 84.241   23 -0.154   23 -0.141   24 -0.138   24 0.4823   21  0.410   26 -0.205   20 -0.070   14  0.053

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      102  71 791 684  0.015 86.956    4  0.230    4  0.188    6  0.139    5 0.5227   25  0.400    9  0.063    5  0.215   15  0.019
CUBS          95  69 762 647 -0.000 81.459    6  0.189    6  0.154    7  0.128    6 0.5190   26  0.374   12  0.029    3  0.227    8  0.130
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.004 80.796   12  0.047   12  0.085   11  0.082   12 0.5107    5  0.614    4  0.201   18 -0.037   24 -0.150
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.012 80.906   15  0.007   15  0.027   15  0.018   14 0.5033   10  0.537    8  0.064   16 -0.028   25 -0.199
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.033 83.012   24 -0.156   24 -0.142   22 -0.122   25 0.4822   11  0.535   23 -0.078   23 -0.167    5  0.170

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.007 82.933   10  0.066   10  0.098    9  0.104   10 0.5124   24  0.401   13  0.028    8  0.180   10  0.127
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.006 80.205   16  0.002   16  0.008   13  0.068   16 0.5014   15  0.480   10  0.062   13  0.074    7  0.134
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.007 81.186   18 -0.001   18 -0.007   19 -0.037   18 0.4989   16  0.477   21 -0.046   17 -0.028   20 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.012 81.506   19 -0.010   19 -0.039   18 -0.030   19 0.4953    2  0.701    6  0.174   25 -0.234   29 -0.598
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.035 82.732   26 -0.213   26 -0.186   26 -0.218   26 0.4766    1  0.735   14  0.020   30 -0.456   30 -0.610

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.002 83.918    2  0.257    2  0.255    1  0.300    2 0.5326   29  0.316    7  0.152    1  0.447   17  0.004
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.007 80.388    5  0.223    5  0.182    5  0.155    4 0.5231    3  0.667    1  0.325   14 -0.016   27 -0.284
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.015 81.666    9  0.082    9  0.107   17 -0.014    9 0.5134    8  0.542   11  0.037   19 -0.064   28 -0.287
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.014 81.631   17  0.000   17 -0.001   16 -0.005   17 0.5008   14  0.503   15  0.010   15 -0.020   19 -0.022
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.023 82.461   25 -0.170   25 -0.151   23 -0.129   23 0.4825   20  0.428   24 -0.181   21 -0.076    1  0.538

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.085 76.294   14  0.010   14  0.034    8  0.106   15 0.5031   27  0.363   18 -0.002    7  0.214    3  0.244
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.069 76.430   21 -0.056   21 -0.090   21 -0.088   22 0.4872    7  0.544   20 -0.035   22 -0.140   12  0.086
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.057 77.576   27 -0.240   27 -0.251   27 -0.260   27 0.4673   18  0.460   28 -0.284   26 -0.236   21 -0.038
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.051 77.924   28 -0.245   28 -0.270   28 -0.265   28 0.4649    6  0.553   25 -0.204   28 -0.326   18  0.003
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.053 77.787   29 -0.271   29 -0.322   29 -0.269   29 0.4592   19  0.437   30 -0.313   24 -0.225    6  0.157

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      119  57 960 698 -0.013 85.942    1  0.309    1  0.343    2  0.276    1 0.5412   12  0.522    2  0.308    2  0.244    9  0.129
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.028 80.787    3  0.233    3  0.193    4  0.198    3 0.5248   17  0.468    5  0.181    6  0.215    4  0.227
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.023 78.979   11  0.052   11  0.089   14  0.068   11 0.5117   22  0.408   17 -0.002   11  0.137   23 -0.114
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.001 81.030   22 -0.070   22 -0.098   25 -0.158   21 0.4883    4  0.648   19 -0.006   27 -0.310   22 -0.060
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.018 82.626   30 -0.414   30 -0.403   30 -0.323   30 0.4525   13  0.509   29 -0.303   29 -0.343   13  0.060

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    440 379 0.537    1  0.073
NL CENTRAL 434 388 0.528    2  0.059
NL WEST    413 419 0.496    3  0.044
AL EAST    431 398 0.520    4  0.015
NL EAST    393 420 0.483    5 -0.026
AL CENTRAL 353 460 0.434    6 -0.184

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.070 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 13:14:17 2020
games through: Sun Oct 28 2018

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