Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      119  57 960 698 -0.013 85.942    1  1.487    1  0.343    2  0.276    1 0.5412  0.524  0.309  0.243  0.130
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.002 83.918    2  1.378    2  0.255    1  0.300    2 0.5326  0.321  0.155  0.444  0.003
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.028 80.787    3  1.328    3  0.193    4  0.198    3 0.5248  0.470  0.182  0.214  0.226
BREWERS      102  71 791 684  0.015 86.956    4  1.323    4  0.188    6  0.139    5 0.5227  0.401  0.062  0.216  0.020
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.007 80.388    5  1.306    5  0.182    5  0.155    4 0.5231  0.668  0.325 -0.016 -0.283
CUBS          95  69 762 647 -0.000 81.459    6  1.236    6  0.154    7  0.128    6 0.5190  0.374  0.029  0.228  0.130
DODGERS      100  79 863 670  0.031 91.124    7  1.208    7  0.141    3  0.219    7 0.5185  0.543  0.270  0.169 -0.236
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.039 85.633    8  1.107    8  0.128   12  0.078    8 0.5157  0.401  0.002  0.155  0.451
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.015 81.666    9  1.012    9  0.107   17 -0.014    9 0.5134  0.540  0.034 -0.061 -0.284
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.007 82.933   10  0.979   10  0.098    9  0.104   10 0.5124  0.402  0.028  0.180  0.126
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.023 78.979   11  0.949   11  0.089   14  0.068   11 0.5117  0.407 -0.004  0.139 -0.113
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.004 80.796   12  0.938   12  0.085   11  0.082   12 0.5107  0.615  0.200 -0.037 -0.152
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.033 82.717   13  0.863   13  0.038   10  0.089   13 0.5050  0.331 -0.047  0.225  0.087
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.085 76.294   14  0.861   14  0.034    8  0.106   15 0.5031  0.364 -0.002  0.214  0.246
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.012 80.906   15  0.855   15  0.027   15  0.018   14 0.5033  0.537  0.063 -0.027 -0.199
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.006 80.205   16  0.845   16  0.008   13  0.068   16 0.5014  0.481  0.061  0.074  0.133
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.014 81.631   17  0.840   17 -0.001   16 -0.005   17 0.5008  0.504  0.009 -0.020 -0.021
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.007 81.186   18  0.837   18 -0.007   19 -0.037   18 0.4989  0.477 -0.046 -0.027 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.012 81.506   19  0.818   19 -0.039   18 -0.030   19 0.4953  0.701  0.173 -0.233 -0.598
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.050 84.033   20  0.796   20 -0.058   20 -0.064   20 0.4927  0.310 -0.217  0.090  0.005
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.069 76.430   21  0.723   21 -0.090   21 -0.088   22 0.4872  0.544 -0.036 -0.139  0.085
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.001 81.030   22  0.692   22 -0.098   25 -0.158   21 0.4883  0.649 -0.006 -0.310 -0.059
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.052 84.241   23  0.521   23 -0.141   24 -0.138   24 0.4823  0.412 -0.205 -0.070  0.053
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.033 83.012   24  0.518   24 -0.142   22 -0.122   25 0.4822  0.536 -0.078 -0.166  0.169
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.023 82.461   25  0.486   25 -0.151   23 -0.129   23 0.4825  0.428 -0.182 -0.075  0.538
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.035 82.732   26  0.396   26 -0.186   26 -0.218   26 0.4766  0.739  0.022 -0.459 -0.612
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.057 77.576   27  0.340   27 -0.251   27 -0.260   27 0.4673  0.464 -0.281 -0.238 -0.041
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.051 77.924   28  0.330   28 -0.270   28 -0.265   28 0.4649  0.556 -0.203 -0.328  0.002
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.053 77.787   29  0.275   29 -0.322   29 -0.269   29 0.4592  0.439 -0.312 -0.226  0.159
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.018 82.626   30  0.000   30 -0.403   30 -0.323   30 0.4525  0.513 -0.300 -0.346  0.058

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      100  79 863 670  0.031 91.124    7  1.208    7  0.141    3  0.219    7 0.5185  0.543  0.270  0.169 -0.236
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.039 85.633    8  1.107    8  0.128   12  0.078    8 0.5157  0.401  0.002  0.155  0.451
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.033 82.717   13  0.863   13  0.038   10  0.089   13 0.5050  0.331 -0.047  0.225  0.087
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.050 84.033   20  0.796   20 -0.058   20 -0.064   20 0.4927  0.310 -0.217  0.090  0.005
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.052 84.241   23  0.521   23 -0.141   24 -0.138   24 0.4823  0.412 -0.205 -0.070  0.053

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      102  71 791 684  0.015 86.956    4  1.323    4  0.188    6  0.139    5 0.5227  0.401  0.062  0.216  0.020
CUBS          95  69 762 647 -0.000 81.459    6  1.236    6  0.154    7  0.128    6 0.5190  0.374  0.029  0.228  0.130
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.004 80.796   12  0.938   12  0.085   11  0.082   12 0.5107  0.615  0.200 -0.037 -0.152
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.012 80.906   15  0.855   15  0.027   15  0.018   14 0.5033  0.537  0.063 -0.027 -0.199
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.033 83.012   24  0.518   24 -0.142   22 -0.122   25 0.4822  0.536 -0.078 -0.166  0.169

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.007 82.933   10  0.979   10  0.098    9  0.104   10 0.5124  0.402  0.028  0.180  0.126
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.006 80.205   16  0.845   16  0.008   13  0.068   16 0.5014  0.481  0.061  0.074  0.133
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.007 81.186   18  0.837   18 -0.007   19 -0.037   18 0.4989  0.477 -0.046 -0.027 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.012 81.506   19  0.818   19 -0.039   18 -0.030   19 0.4953  0.701  0.173 -0.233 -0.598
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.035 82.732   26  0.396   26 -0.186   26 -0.218   26 0.4766  0.739  0.022 -0.459 -0.612

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.002 83.918    2  1.378    2  0.255    1  0.300    2 0.5326  0.321  0.155  0.444  0.003
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.007 80.388    5  1.306    5  0.182    5  0.155    4 0.5231  0.668  0.325 -0.016 -0.283
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.015 81.666    9  1.012    9  0.107   17 -0.014    9 0.5134  0.540  0.034 -0.061 -0.284
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.014 81.631   17  0.840   17 -0.001   16 -0.005   17 0.5008  0.504  0.009 -0.020 -0.021
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.023 82.461   25  0.486   25 -0.151   23 -0.129   23 0.4825  0.428 -0.182 -0.075  0.538

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.085 76.294   14  0.861   14  0.034    8  0.106   15 0.5031  0.364 -0.002  0.214  0.246
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.069 76.430   21  0.723   21 -0.090   21 -0.088   22 0.4872  0.544 -0.036 -0.139  0.085
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.057 77.576   27  0.340   27 -0.251   27 -0.260   27 0.4673  0.464 -0.281 -0.238 -0.041
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.051 77.924   28  0.330   28 -0.270   28 -0.265   28 0.4649  0.556 -0.203 -0.328  0.002
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.053 77.787   29  0.275   29 -0.322   29 -0.269   29 0.4592  0.439 -0.312 -0.226  0.159

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      119  57 960 698 -0.013 85.942    1  1.487    1  0.343    2  0.276    1 0.5412  0.524  0.309  0.243  0.130
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.028 80.787    3  1.328    3  0.193    4  0.198    3 0.5248  0.470  0.182  0.214  0.226
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.023 78.979   11  0.949   11  0.089   14  0.068   11 0.5117  0.407 -0.004  0.139 -0.113
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.001 81.030   22  0.692   22 -0.098   25 -0.158   21 0.4883  0.649 -0.006 -0.310 -0.059
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.018 82.626   30  0.000   30 -0.403   30 -0.323   30 0.4525  0.513 -0.300 -0.346  0.058

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    440 379 0.537    1  0.073
NL CENTRAL 434 388 0.528    2  0.059
NL WEST    413 419 0.496    3  0.044
AL EAST    431 398 0.520    4  0.015
NL EAST    393 420 0.483    5 -0.026
AL CENTRAL 353 460 0.434    6 -0.184

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.070 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Dec 26 11:35:16 2018
games through: Sun Oct 28 2018

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