Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      108  59 908 634  0.016 83.605    1  0.286    1  0.316    1  0.335    1 0.5387   15  0.585    2  0.352    2  0.319   27 -0.245
ASTROS       117  63 991 712 -0.027 86.900    2  0.268    2  0.292    2  0.289    2 0.5335   26  0.397   11  0.136    1  0.442    6  0.167
YANKEES      108  63 987 768 -0.039 81.755    3  0.251    3  0.238    3  0.222    3 0.5262    1  0.839    1  0.495   17 -0.051   29 -0.289
NATIONALS    105  74 951 785  0.034 90.983    4  0.241    4  0.207    4  0.215    4 0.5255   20  0.544    6  0.194    4  0.236    7  0.151
BRAVES        99  68 872 769  0.019 83.980    5  0.235    5  0.203    5  0.149    5 0.5248    8  0.639    4  0.218    9  0.080   13  0.034
ATHLETICS     97  66 846 685 -0.043 77.864    6  0.188    6  0.158    6  0.148    6 0.5184   16  0.577    8  0.157    8  0.139   24 -0.183
RAYS          99  69 792 676 -0.036 80.775    7  0.178    7  0.152    9  0.120   10 0.5161   25  0.423   16 -0.011    3  0.251   23 -0.167
TWINS        101  64 946 777 -0.097 75.301    8  0.176    8  0.151   10  0.111    8 0.5166    2  0.764    3  0.305   18 -0.083   19 -0.029
CARDINALS     94  77 796 699  0.042 87.652    9  0.148    9  0.135    8  0.138    7 0.5170   22  0.498   13  0.075    6  0.202   26 -0.212
BREWERS       89  74 772 770  0.052 84.283   10  0.134   10  0.133   13  0.074    9 0.5164   18  0.571   12  0.077   10  0.070   18 -0.028
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS          86  76 791 737  0.037 82.741   11  0.062   11  0.092   11  0.105   11 0.5124    6  0.649    7  0.184   13  0.026   25 -0.200
DIAMONDBACKS  85  77 813 743  0.034 82.519   12  0.042   12  0.076   12  0.105   12 0.5107   11  0.616   10  0.152   12  0.058   21 -0.090
INDIANS       93  69 769 657 -0.102 73.796   13  0.037   13  0.070   14  0.046   14 0.5067   28  0.384   22 -0.118    5  0.211   15  0.006
CUBS          84  78 814 717  0.033 82.423   14  0.030   14  0.065    7  0.141   13 0.5091    7  0.644    5  0.214   11  0.067   22 -0.163
PHILLIES      81  81 774 794  0.036 82.849   15  0.007   15  0.028   17  0.010   15 0.5044   17  0.575   15  0.017   15  0.003   11  0.065
RED SOX       84  78 901 828 -0.044 77.562   16 -0.001   16  0.001   15  0.032   17 0.4987    4  0.692    9  0.153   19 -0.089    8  0.149
GIANTS        77  85 678 773  0.059 84.486   17 -0.002   17 -0.004   21 -0.089   16 0.5000   12  0.615   18 -0.043   22 -0.134   30 -0.455
REDS          75  87 701 711  0.050 83.704   18 -0.011   18 -0.034   16  0.025   18 0.4971   27  0.392   24 -0.133    7  0.183   14  0.025
RANGERS       78  84 810 878 -0.017 79.584   19 -0.021   19 -0.051   18 -0.074   19 0.4931   21  0.520   23 -0.118   16 -0.030    2  0.420
ROCKIES       71  91 835 958  0.062 84.659   20 -0.044   20 -0.077   19 -0.081   20 0.4921    9  0.628   17 -0.024   23 -0.139    1  0.516
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES        70  92 682 789  0.050 83.892   21 -0.068   21 -0.097   20 -0.085   21 0.4894   14  0.593   19 -0.061   21 -0.109   28 -0.284
PIRATES       69  93 758 911  0.056 84.335   22 -0.086   22 -0.108   23 -0.131   22 0.4877    3  0.760   14  0.059   29 -0.321   20 -0.047
ANGELS        72  90 769 868 -0.002 80.689   23 -0.099   23 -0.115   22 -0.130   23 0.4857   10  0.627   21 -0.073   24 -0.187   10  0.066
WHITE SOX     72  89 708 832 -0.070 76.061   24 -0.187   24 -0.162   26 -0.196   24 0.4792   19  0.567   25 -0.196   25 -0.196   17 -0.005
MARINERS      68  94 758 893 -0.011 80.161   25 -0.200   25 -0.175   25 -0.171   25 0.4788    5  0.671   20 -0.071   27 -0.271   16  0.003
BLUE JAYS     67  95 726 828 -0.023 79.411   26 -0.217   26 -0.194   24 -0.154   26 0.4757   23  0.498   26 -0.219   20 -0.090   12  0.049
MARLINS       57 105 615 808  0.067 85.204   27 -0.242   27 -0.252   27 -0.218   27 0.4719   30  0.308   29 -0.445   14  0.010    9  0.139
ROYALS        59 103 691 869 -0.065 76.991   28 -0.289   28 -0.330   28 -0.283   28 0.4605   24  0.496   28 -0.349   26 -0.218    5  0.167
ORIOLES       54 108 729 981 -0.005 80.777   29 -0.314   29 -0.348   29 -0.287   29 0.4579   13  0.605   27 -0.252   30 -0.323    3  0.224
TIGERS        47 114 582 915 -0.055 77.373   30 -0.502   30 -0.476   30 -0.468   30 0.4433   29  0.348   30 -0.663   28 -0.272    4  0.218
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      108  59 908 634  0.016 83.605    1  0.286    1  0.316    1  0.335    1 0.5387   15  0.585    2  0.352    2  0.319   27 -0.245
DIAMONDBACKS  85  77 813 743  0.034 82.519   12  0.042   12  0.076   12  0.105   12 0.5107   11  0.616   10  0.152   12  0.058   21 -0.090
GIANTS        77  85 678 773  0.059 84.486   17 -0.002   17 -0.004   21 -0.089   16 0.5000   12  0.615   18 -0.043   22 -0.134   30 -0.455
ROCKIES       71  91 835 958  0.062 84.659   20 -0.044   20 -0.077   19 -0.081   20 0.4921    9  0.628   17 -0.024   23 -0.139    1  0.516
PADRES        70  92 682 789  0.050 83.892   21 -0.068   21 -0.097   20 -0.085   21 0.4894   14  0.593   19 -0.061   21 -0.109   28 -0.284

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS     94  77 796 699  0.042 87.652    9  0.148    9  0.135    8  0.138    7 0.5170   22  0.498   13  0.075    6  0.202   26 -0.212
BREWERS       89  74 772 770  0.052 84.283   10  0.134   10  0.133   13  0.074    9 0.5164   18  0.571   12  0.077   10  0.070   18 -0.028
CUBS          84  78 814 717  0.033 82.423   14  0.030   14  0.065    7  0.141   13 0.5091    7  0.644    5  0.214   11  0.067   22 -0.163
REDS          75  87 701 711  0.050 83.704   18 -0.011   18 -0.034   16  0.025   18 0.4971   27  0.392   24 -0.133    7  0.183   14  0.025
PIRATES       69  93 758 911  0.056 84.335   22 -0.086   22 -0.108   23 -0.131   22 0.4877    3  0.760   14  0.059   29 -0.321   20 -0.047

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NATIONALS    105  74 951 785  0.034 90.983    4  0.241    4  0.207    4  0.215    4 0.5255   20  0.544    6  0.194    4  0.236    7  0.151
BRAVES        99  68 872 769  0.019 83.980    5  0.235    5  0.203    5  0.149    5 0.5248    8  0.639    4  0.218    9  0.080   13  0.034
METS          86  76 791 737  0.037 82.741   11  0.062   11  0.092   11  0.105   11 0.5124    6  0.649    7  0.184   13  0.026   25 -0.200
PHILLIES      81  81 774 794  0.036 82.849   15  0.007   15  0.028   17  0.010   15 0.5044   17  0.575   15  0.017   15  0.003   11  0.065
MARLINS       57 105 615 808  0.067 85.204   27 -0.242   27 -0.252   27 -0.218   27 0.4719   30  0.308   29 -0.445   14  0.010    9  0.139

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       117  63 991 712 -0.027 86.900    2  0.268    2  0.292    2  0.289    2 0.5335   26  0.397   11  0.136    1  0.442    6  0.167
ATHLETICS     97  66 846 685 -0.043 77.864    6  0.188    6  0.158    6  0.148    6 0.5184   16  0.577    8  0.157    8  0.139   24 -0.183
RANGERS       78  84 810 878 -0.017 79.584   19 -0.021   19 -0.051   18 -0.074   19 0.4931   21  0.520   23 -0.118   16 -0.030    2  0.420
ANGELS        72  90 769 868 -0.002 80.689   23 -0.099   23 -0.115   22 -0.130   23 0.4857   10  0.627   21 -0.073   24 -0.187   10  0.066
MARINERS      68  94 758 893 -0.011 80.161   25 -0.200   25 -0.175   25 -0.171   25 0.4788    5  0.671   20 -0.071   27 -0.271   16  0.003

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        101  64 946 777 -0.097 75.301    8  0.176    8  0.151   10  0.111    8 0.5166    2  0.764    3  0.305   18 -0.083   19 -0.029
INDIANS       93  69 769 657 -0.102 73.796   13  0.037   13  0.070   14  0.046   14 0.5067   28  0.384   22 -0.118    5  0.211   15  0.006
WHITE SOX     72  89 708 832 -0.070 76.061   24 -0.187   24 -0.162   26 -0.196   24 0.4792   19  0.567   25 -0.196   25 -0.196   17 -0.005
ROYALS        59 103 691 869 -0.065 76.991   28 -0.289   28 -0.330   28 -0.283   28 0.4605   24  0.496   28 -0.349   26 -0.218    5  0.167
TIGERS        47 114 582 915 -0.055 77.373   30 -0.502   30 -0.476   30 -0.468   30 0.4433   29  0.348   30 -0.663   28 -0.272    4  0.218

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      108  63 987 768 -0.039 81.755    3  0.251    3  0.238    3  0.222    3 0.5262    1  0.839    1  0.495   17 -0.051   29 -0.289
RAYS          99  69 792 676 -0.036 80.775    7  0.178    7  0.152    9  0.120   10 0.5161   25  0.423   16 -0.011    3  0.251   23 -0.167
RED SOX       84  78 901 828 -0.044 77.562   16 -0.001   16  0.001   15  0.032   17 0.4987    4  0.692    9  0.153   19 -0.089    8  0.149
BLUE JAYS     67  95 726 828 -0.023 79.411   26 -0.217   26 -0.194   24 -0.154   26 0.4757   23  0.498   26 -0.219   20 -0.090   12  0.049
ORIOLES       54 108 729 981 -0.005 80.777   29 -0.314   29 -0.348   29 -0.287   29 0.4579   13  0.605   27 -0.252   30 -0.323    3  0.224

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL EAST    428 404 0.514    1  0.061
NL CENTRAL 411 409 0.501    2  0.057
NL WEST    411 404 0.504    3  0.042
AL WEST    432 397 0.521    4  0.013
AL EAST    412 413 0.499    5 -0.015
AL CENTRAL 372 439 0.459    6 -0.182

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.047 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 13:14:25 2020
games through: Wed Oct 30 2019

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.