Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       105  61 955 736 -0.006 81.760    1  0.251    1  0.252    1  0.253    1 0.5329    2  0.686    2  0.404   11  0.103    9  0.106
ORIOLES      101  64 818 699  0.009 82.374    2  0.243    2  0.224    5  0.145    2 0.5274    3  0.666    4  0.276   15  0.015   27 -0.239
RAYS          99  65 861 676  0.001 81.300    3  0.236    3  0.202    3  0.221    4 0.5252    5  0.642    3  0.328   10  0.114   20 -0.105
DODGERS      100  65 912 718 -0.012 80.895    4  0.233    4  0.196    2  0.237    3 0.5253    1  0.787    1  0.489   17 -0.016   29 -0.263
RANGERS      103  76 978 783 -0.003 88.419    5  0.172    5  0.146    4  0.203    5 0.5175   12  0.550    5  0.222    3  0.184    2  0.264
PHILLIES      98  77 857 746  0.006 87.221    6  0.115    6  0.122    6  0.124    6 0.5167   20  0.514    8  0.110    7  0.138   16 -0.004
BREWERS       92  72 733 658 -0.011 80.718    7  0.084    7  0.107   13  0.083    7 0.5147   28  0.326   19 -0.095    1  0.261   12  0.067
ASTROS        96  77 880 750 -0.003 85.575    8  0.078    8  0.104    8  0.121    9 0.5115    8  0.610    6  0.198   14  0.045   19 -0.060
BLUE JAYS     89  75 747 676  0.015 82.348    9  0.063    9  0.094   10  0.113    8 0.5116   21  0.481   12  0.069    5  0.157   24 -0.174
MARINERS      88  74 758 659 -0.013 79.493   10  0.039   10  0.074    7  0.124   11 0.5081   17  0.520    7  0.115    9  0.132   25 -0.210
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DIAMONDBACKS  94  85 819 828  0.023 90.669   11  0.026   11  0.067   14  0.020   10 0.5083    9  0.590   11  0.077   20 -0.037   22 -0.128
TWINS         90  78 796 680 -0.031 81.320   12  0.015   12  0.045   11  0.093   13 0.5045   26  0.416   16 -0.009    2  0.194   14  0.029
MARLINS       84  79 668 733  0.013 82.031   13  0.011   13  0.038   19 -0.063   12 0.5057   30  0.305   25 -0.259    8  0.132    7  0.141
YANKEES       82  80 673 698  0.022 82.053   14  0.007   14  0.028   16 -0.006   15 0.5032   27  0.361   23 -0.154    6  0.142   17 -0.008
CUBS          83  79 819 723 -0.012 79.640   15  0.004   15  0.015   12  0.091   14 0.5033   13  0.548    9  0.108   13  0.074   10  0.106
PADRES        82  80 752 648  0.001 80.439   16  0.004   16  0.014    9  0.116   16 0.5025   23  0.478   13  0.069    4  0.162   23 -0.169
REDS          82  80 783 821 -0.004 80.410   17  0.001   17  0.008   18 -0.043   17 0.5019    4  0.662   10  0.084   24 -0.169   13  0.053
RED SOX       78  84 772 776  0.021 81.950   18 -0.006   18 -0.020   15 -0.002   19 0.4974   11  0.554   14  0.021   18 -0.025    5  0.191
GIANTS        79  83 674 719  0.005 81.041   19 -0.006   19 -0.021   21 -0.071   18 0.4975   15  0.527   18 -0.073   22 -0.069   30 -0.319
PIRATES       76  86 692 790  0.004 81.040   20 -0.023   20 -0.058   24 -0.119   20 0.4936   24  0.470   24 -0.173   21 -0.065   11  0.100
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS        78  84 661 740 -0.028 78.957   21 -0.023   21 -0.058   23 -0.102   22 0.4912   29  0.317   29 -0.287   12  0.083    6  0.173
METS          74  87 716 729  0.009 80.712   22 -0.034   22 -0.071   17 -0.021   21 0.4927   14  0.535   17 -0.015   19 -0.027   21 -0.114
GUARDIANS     76  86 662 697 -0.027 78.964   23 -0.044   23 -0.080   20 -0.070   23 0.4886   25  0.459   21 -0.134   16 -0.007   26 -0.225
ANGELS        73  89 739 829  0.000 80.829   24 -0.068   24 -0.095   22 -0.097   25 0.4868    6  0.642   15  0.010   27 -0.203   18 -0.038
NATIONALS     71  91 700 845  0.017 81.941   25 -0.087   25 -0.106   26 -0.150   24 0.4876   10  0.556   20 -0.125   25 -0.175    8  0.107
CARDINALS     71  91 719 829  0.003 80.982   26 -0.107   26 -0.117   25 -0.136   26 0.4861   16  0.522   22 -0.144   23 -0.129    4  0.194
ROCKIES       59 103 721 957  0.022 82.430   27 -0.265   27 -0.249   27 -0.238   27 0.4695   22  0.481   28 -0.283   26 -0.194    1  0.552
WHITE SOX     61 101 641 841 -0.016 79.901   28 -0.266   28 -0.253   28 -0.248   28 0.4669   19  0.516   26 -0.261   28 -0.236   15  0.007
ROYALS        56 106 676 859 -0.013 80.104   29 -0.290   29 -0.311   29 -0.252   29 0.4600   18  0.519   27 -0.261   29 -0.242    3  0.214
ATHLETICS     50 112 585 924  0.021 82.530   30 -0.366   30 -0.362   30 -0.394   30 0.4540    7  0.621   30 -0.308   30 -0.480   28 -0.248
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      100  65 912 718 -0.012 80.895    4  0.233    4  0.196    2  0.237    3 0.5253    1  0.787    1  0.489   17 -0.016   29 -0.263
DIAMONDBACKS  94  85 819 828  0.023 90.669   11  0.026   11  0.067   14  0.020   10 0.5083    9  0.590   11  0.077   20 -0.037   22 -0.128
PADRES        82  80 752 648  0.001 80.439   16  0.004   16  0.014    9  0.116   16 0.5025   23  0.478   13  0.069    4  0.162   23 -0.169
GIANTS        79  83 674 719  0.005 81.041   19 -0.006   19 -0.021   21 -0.071   18 0.4975   15  0.527   18 -0.073   22 -0.069   30 -0.319
ROCKIES       59 103 721 957  0.022 82.430   27 -0.265   27 -0.249   27 -0.238   27 0.4695   22  0.481   28 -0.283   26 -0.194    1  0.552

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       92  72 733 658 -0.011 80.718    7  0.084    7  0.107   13  0.083    7 0.5147   28  0.326   19 -0.095    1  0.261   12  0.067
CUBS          83  79 819 723 -0.012 79.640   15  0.004   15  0.015   12  0.091   14 0.5033   13  0.548    9  0.108   13  0.074   10  0.106
REDS          82  80 783 821 -0.004 80.410   17  0.001   17  0.008   18 -0.043   17 0.5019    4  0.662   10  0.084   24 -0.169   13  0.053
PIRATES       76  86 692 790  0.004 81.040   20 -0.023   20 -0.058   24 -0.119   20 0.4936   24  0.470   24 -0.173   21 -0.065   11  0.100
CARDINALS     71  91 719 829  0.003 80.982   26 -0.107   26 -0.117   25 -0.136   26 0.4861   16  0.522   22 -0.144   23 -0.129    4  0.194

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       105  61 955 736 -0.006 81.760    1  0.251    1  0.252    1  0.253    1 0.5329    2  0.686    2  0.404   11  0.103    9  0.106
PHILLIES      98  77 857 746  0.006 87.221    6  0.115    6  0.122    6  0.124    6 0.5167   20  0.514    8  0.110    7  0.138   16 -0.004
MARLINS       84  79 668 733  0.013 82.031   13  0.011   13  0.038   19 -0.063   12 0.5057   30  0.305   25 -0.259    8  0.132    7  0.141
METS          74  87 716 729  0.009 80.712   22 -0.034   22 -0.071   17 -0.021   21 0.4927   14  0.535   17 -0.015   19 -0.027   21 -0.114
NATIONALS     71  91 700 845  0.017 81.941   25 -0.087   25 -0.106   26 -0.150   24 0.4876   10  0.556   20 -0.125   25 -0.175    8  0.107

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      103  76 978 783 -0.003 88.419    5  0.172    5  0.146    4  0.203    5 0.5175   12  0.550    5  0.222    3  0.184    2  0.264
ASTROS        96  77 880 750 -0.003 85.575    8  0.078    8  0.104    8  0.121    9 0.5115    8  0.610    6  0.198   14  0.045   19 -0.060
MARINERS      88  74 758 659 -0.013 79.493   10  0.039   10  0.074    7  0.124   11 0.5081   17  0.520    7  0.115    9  0.132   25 -0.210
ANGELS        73  89 739 829  0.000 80.829   24 -0.068   24 -0.095   22 -0.097   25 0.4868    6  0.642   15  0.010   27 -0.203   18 -0.038
ATHLETICS     50 112 585 924  0.021 82.530   30 -0.366   30 -0.362   30 -0.394   30 0.4540    7  0.621   30 -0.308   30 -0.480   28 -0.248

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         90  78 796 680 -0.031 81.320   12  0.015   12  0.045   11  0.093   13 0.5045   26  0.416   16 -0.009    2  0.194   14  0.029
TIGERS        78  84 661 740 -0.028 78.957   21 -0.023   21 -0.058   23 -0.102   22 0.4912   29  0.317   29 -0.287   12  0.083    6  0.173
GUARDIANS     76  86 662 697 -0.027 78.964   23 -0.044   23 -0.080   20 -0.070   23 0.4886   25  0.459   21 -0.134   16 -0.007   26 -0.225
WHITE SOX     61 101 641 841 -0.016 79.901   28 -0.266   28 -0.253   28 -0.248   28 0.4669   19  0.516   26 -0.261   28 -0.236   15  0.007
ROYALS        56 106 676 859 -0.013 80.104   29 -0.290   29 -0.311   29 -0.252   29 0.4600   18  0.519   27 -0.261   29 -0.242    3  0.214

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES      101  64 818 699  0.009 82.374    2  0.243    2  0.224    5  0.145    2 0.5274    3  0.666    4  0.276   15  0.015   27 -0.239
RAYS          99  65 861 676  0.001 81.300    3  0.236    3  0.202    3  0.221    4 0.5252    5  0.642    3  0.328   10  0.114   20 -0.105
BLUE JAYS     89  75 747 676  0.015 82.348    9  0.063    9  0.094   10  0.113    8 0.5116   21  0.481   12  0.069    5  0.157   24 -0.174
YANKEES       82  80 673 698  0.022 82.053   14  0.007   14  0.028   16 -0.006   15 0.5032   27  0.361   23 -0.154    6  0.142   17 -0.008
RED SOX       78  84 772 776  0.021 81.950   18 -0.006   18 -0.020   15 -0.002   19 0.4974   11  0.554   14  0.021   18 -0.025    5  0.191

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    449 368 0.550    1  0.113
NL EAST    432 395 0.522    2  0.034
NL WEST    414 416 0.499    3  0.016
AL WEST    410 428 0.489    4 -0.008
NL CENTRAL 404 408 0.498    5 -0.029
AL CENTRAL 361 455 0.442    6 -0.139

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.033 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.005 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Nov  5 17:06:59 2023
games through: Wed Nov  1 2023

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