Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      109  69 937 757  0.015 88.637    1  0.220    1  0.217    1  0.209    1 0.5300    3  0.699    1  0.417   16  0.001   27 -0.194
PADRES        97  72 790 697  0.020 84.583    2  0.155    2  0.145    6  0.119    2 0.5208   18  0.479    9  0.119    7  0.120   16 -0.019
YANKEES      102  74 882 725 -0.002 86.533    3  0.154    3  0.143    2  0.172    4 0.5191    7  0.548    4  0.235   10  0.110   11  0.079
PHILLIES      96  70 796 694 -0.001 81.727    4  0.144    4  0.139    4  0.129    3 0.5196   14  0.497    8  0.145    9  0.113   12  0.054
BREWERS       94  71 788 656  0.003 81.509    5  0.120    5  0.126    3  0.147    5 0.5181   15  0.497    7  0.163    5  0.132   22 -0.080
METS          96  79 832 766  0.020 87.688    6  0.072    6  0.102   10  0.078    6 0.5145    5  0.619    5  0.208   19 -0.051   25 -0.112
DIAMONDBACKS  89  73 886 788  0.012 80.607    7  0.066    8  0.096    7  0.106    7 0.5143    1  0.751    2  0.366   24 -0.155    8  0.120
GUARDIANS     96  75 747 663 -0.018 83.054    8  0.064    7  0.096   12  0.070    8 0.5119   29  0.253   22 -0.123    1  0.262    5  0.220
ORIOLES       91  73 784 700 -0.012 80.065    9  0.056    9  0.088    9  0.085   10 0.5116    6  0.594    6  0.191   17 -0.021   21 -0.079
BRAVES        89  75 708 616  0.003 80.992   10  0.044   10  0.077    5  0.123    9 0.5118   24  0.351   16  0.010    3  0.235   23 -0.086
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS        88  75 743 657 -0.031 78.321   11  0.026   11  0.048   11  0.076   11 0.5058   20  0.450   13  0.050   11  0.103   14  0.047
ROYALS        89  79 750 659 -0.019 81.527   12  0.023   13  0.040    8  0.092   14 0.5046   28  0.297   18 -0.065    2  0.249    3  0.247
TIGERS        90  79 703 664 -0.019 82.161   13  0.022   12  0.044   15  0.019   12 0.5049   26  0.335   21 -0.107    4  0.144   15  0.014
CUBS          83  79 736 669  0.004 80.145   14  0.017   15  0.025   13  0.061   15 0.5040    2  0.735    3  0.305   26 -0.183   30 -0.556
CARDINALS     83  79 670 716  0.015 81.025   15  0.017   14  0.031   20 -0.025   13 0.5046   21  0.437   17 -0.063   14  0.013   17 -0.028
MARINERS      85  77 676 607 -0.030 77.998   16  0.016   16  0.023   14  0.050   16 0.5023   16  0.493   11  0.062   12  0.038   29 -0.467
GIANTS        80  82 693 699  0.016 81.023   17  0.012   17 -0.000   16  0.015   17 0.5011   17  0.492   15  0.026   15  0.004   26 -0.152
TWINS         82  80 742 735 -0.018 78.797   18  0.011   18 -0.003   19 -0.018   19 0.4984   10  0.530   14  0.028   21 -0.064    7  0.147
RED SOX       81  81 751 747 -0.004 79.752   19  0.011   19 -0.004   18 -0.004   18 0.4991    8  0.542   12  0.053   20 -0.060   10  0.092
RAYS          80  82 604 663 -0.002 79.981   20  0.009   20 -0.014   23 -0.070   20 0.4975   30  0.249   28 -0.265    6  0.125   18 -0.029
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDS          77  85 699 694  0.013 80.815   21  0.005   21 -0.034   17 -0.002   21 0.4960   25  0.339   23 -0.124    8  0.120    4  0.232
PIRATES       76  86 665 739  0.017 81.190   22  0.001   22 -0.043   21 -0.062   22 0.4945   22  0.384   25 -0.146   13  0.022    6  0.148
RANGERS       79  84 686 739 -0.023 79.110   23  0.000   23 -0.044   24 -0.075   23 0.4927    4  0.639   10  0.074   28 -0.224   28 -0.291
BLUE JAYS     74  88 671 743  0.003 80.307   24 -0.017   24 -0.075   22 -0.070   24 0.4893   19  0.454   20 -0.093   18 -0.047    9  0.112
NATIONALS     71  91 660 764  0.016 81.214   25 -0.047   25 -0.099   25 -0.113   25 0.4870   11  0.514   19 -0.082   23 -0.144   20 -0.060
ATHLETICS     69  93 643 764 -0.012 79.471   26 -0.125   26 -0.140   26 -0.155   26 0.4797   12  0.500   24 -0.136   25 -0.173   19 -0.042
MARLINS       62 100 637 841  0.022 81.648   27 -0.188   27 -0.194   28 -0.212   28 0.4739   27  0.315   29 -0.354   22 -0.069    1  0.416
ROCKIES       61 101 682 929  0.037 82.731   28 -0.190   28 -0.195   29 -0.257   27 0.4740    9  0.531   27 -0.210   30 -0.304    2  0.328
ANGELS        63  99 635 797 -0.008 79.680   29 -0.193   29 -0.204   27 -0.187   29 0.4711   13  0.500   26 -0.169   27 -0.205   13  0.048
WHITE SOX     41 122 508 816  0.009 81.517   30 -0.504   30 -0.450   30 -0.363   30 0.4395   23  0.353   30 -0.473   29 -0.253   24 -0.112
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      109  69 937 757  0.015 88.637    1  0.220    1  0.217    1  0.209    1 0.5300    3  0.699    1  0.417   16  0.001   27 -0.194
PADRES        97  72 790 697  0.020 84.583    2  0.155    2  0.145    6  0.119    2 0.5208   18  0.479    9  0.119    7  0.120   16 -0.019
DIAMONDBACKS  89  73 886 788  0.012 80.607    7  0.066    8  0.096    7  0.106    7 0.5143    1  0.751    2  0.366   24 -0.155    8  0.120
GIANTS        80  82 693 699  0.016 81.023   17  0.012   17 -0.000   16  0.015   17 0.5011   17  0.492   15  0.026   15  0.004   26 -0.152
ROCKIES       61 101 682 929  0.037 82.731   28 -0.190   28 -0.195   29 -0.257   27 0.4740    9  0.531   27 -0.210   30 -0.304    2  0.328

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       94  71 788 656  0.003 81.509    5  0.120    5  0.126    3  0.147    5 0.5181   15  0.497    7  0.163    5  0.132   22 -0.080
CUBS          83  79 736 669  0.004 80.145   14  0.017   15  0.025   13  0.061   15 0.5040    2  0.735    3  0.305   26 -0.183   30 -0.556
CARDINALS     83  79 670 716  0.015 81.025   15  0.017   14  0.031   20 -0.025   13 0.5046   21  0.437   17 -0.063   14  0.013   17 -0.028
REDS          77  85 699 694  0.013 80.815   21  0.005   21 -0.034   17 -0.002   21 0.4960   25  0.339   23 -0.124    8  0.120    4  0.232
PIRATES       76  86 665 739  0.017 81.190   22  0.001   22 -0.043   21 -0.062   22 0.4945   22  0.384   25 -0.146   13  0.022    6  0.148

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES      96  70 796 694 -0.001 81.727    4  0.144    4  0.139    4  0.129    3 0.5196   14  0.497    8  0.145    9  0.113   12  0.054
METS          96  79 832 766  0.020 87.688    6  0.072    6  0.102   10  0.078    6 0.5145    5  0.619    5  0.208   19 -0.051   25 -0.112
BRAVES        89  75 708 616  0.003 80.992   10  0.044   10  0.077    5  0.123    9 0.5118   24  0.351   16  0.010    3  0.235   23 -0.086
NATIONALS     71  91 660 764  0.016 81.214   25 -0.047   25 -0.099   25 -0.113   25 0.4870   11  0.514   19 -0.082   23 -0.144   20 -0.060
MARLINS       62 100 637 841  0.022 81.648   27 -0.188   27 -0.194   28 -0.212   28 0.4739   27  0.315   29 -0.354   22 -0.069    1  0.416

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS        88  75 743 657 -0.031 78.321   11  0.026   11  0.048   11  0.076   11 0.5058   20  0.450   13  0.050   11  0.103   14  0.047
MARINERS      85  77 676 607 -0.030 77.998   16  0.016   16  0.023   14  0.050   16 0.5023   16  0.493   11  0.062   12  0.038   29 -0.467
RANGERS       79  84 686 739 -0.023 79.110   23  0.000   23 -0.044   24 -0.075   23 0.4927    4  0.639   10  0.074   28 -0.224   28 -0.291
ATHLETICS     69  93 643 764 -0.012 79.471   26 -0.125   26 -0.140   26 -0.155   26 0.4797   12  0.500   24 -0.136   25 -0.173   19 -0.042
ANGELS        63  99 635 797 -0.008 79.680   29 -0.193   29 -0.204   27 -0.187   29 0.4711   13  0.500   26 -0.169   27 -0.205   13  0.048

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS     96  75 747 663 -0.018 83.054    8  0.064    7  0.096   12  0.070    8 0.5119   29  0.253   22 -0.123    1  0.262    5  0.220
ROYALS        89  79 750 659 -0.019 81.527   12  0.023   13  0.040    8  0.092   14 0.5046   28  0.297   18 -0.065    2  0.249    3  0.247
TIGERS        90  79 703 664 -0.019 82.161   13  0.022   12  0.044   15  0.019   12 0.5049   26  0.335   21 -0.107    4  0.144   15  0.014
TWINS         82  80 742 735 -0.018 78.797   18  0.011   18 -0.003   19 -0.018   19 0.4984   10  0.530   14  0.028   21 -0.064    7  0.147
WHITE SOX     41 122 508 816  0.009 81.517   30 -0.504   30 -0.450   30 -0.363   30 0.4395   23  0.353   30 -0.473   29 -0.253   24 -0.112

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      102  74 882 725 -0.002 86.533    3  0.154    3  0.143    2  0.172    4 0.5191    7  0.548    4  0.235   10  0.110   11  0.079
ORIOLES       91  73 784 700 -0.012 80.065    9  0.056    9  0.088    9  0.085   10 0.5116    6  0.594    6  0.191   17 -0.021   21 -0.079
RED SOX       81  81 751 747 -0.004 79.752   19  0.011   19 -0.004   18 -0.004   18 0.4991    8  0.542   12  0.053   20 -0.060   10  0.092
RAYS          80  82 604 663 -0.002 79.981   20  0.009   20 -0.014   23 -0.070   20 0.4975   30  0.249   28 -0.265    6  0.125   18 -0.029
BLUE JAYS     74  88 671 743  0.003 80.307   24 -0.017   24 -0.075   22 -0.070   24 0.4893   19  0.454   20 -0.093   18 -0.047    9  0.112

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    436 397 0.523    1  0.049
NL CENTRAL 413 400 0.508    2  0.031
AL EAST    428 398 0.518    3  0.029
NL EAST    414 415 0.499    4  0.002
AL CENTRAL 398 435 0.478    5 -0.049
AL WEST    384 428 0.473    6 -0.073

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.040 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Oct 31 22:31:20 2024
games through: Wed Oct 30 2024

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