Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       64 15 9441 8480  0.083 39.388    1  0.833    1  0.844    1  0.840    1 0.5770   16  3.961    2  0.831    1  0.850
CAVALIERS     62 16 9526 8762  0.011 36.968    2  0.731    2  0.740    3  0.583    2 0.5680    5  4.034    1  0.959   11  0.207
CELTICS       58 20 9116 8394  0.014 37.204    3  0.585    3  0.586    2  0.605    3 0.5567   23  3.931    6  0.445    3  0.764
ROCKETS       52 27 9035 8602  0.064 39.833    4  0.421    4  0.417    5  0.409    4 0.5406   24  3.922   10  0.207    6  0.612
KNICKS        50 28 9056 8711 -0.020 37.164    5  0.309    5  0.311   10  0.226    5 0.5307   17  3.958   11  0.205    9  0.248
LAKERS        48 30 8845 8747  0.011 38.807    6  0.277    6  0.283   14  0.153    6 0.5273   20  3.947   17  0.074   10  0.231
WARRIORS      46 32 8864 8641  0.049 39.555    7  0.255    7  0.253    7  0.254    8 0.5243   21  3.941   14  0.148    8  0.361
TIMBERWOLVES  46 32 8895 8531  0.056 39.313    8  0.251    8  0.242    6  0.401    7 0.5246   25  3.918   12  0.175    4  0.627
CLIPPERS      46 32 8775 8421  0.045 38.976    9  0.246    9  0.238    4  0.436    9 0.5233   27  3.895   16  0.099    2  0.773
NUGGETS       47 32 9535 9247  0.022 39.095   10  0.235   10  0.231   12  0.199   10 0.5231    4  4.044    4  0.625   18 -0.227
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     46 32 9490 9127  0.034 38.666   11  0.235   11  0.230    9  0.227   11 0.5226    1  4.066    3  0.771   22 -0.318
PACERS        47 31 9165 8984 -0.029 37.445   12  0.215   12  0.212   11  0.214   12 0.5213    6  4.009    5  0.459   15 -0.030
BUCKS         45 34 9058 8884 -0.001 38.697   13  0.162   13  0.156   13  0.158   13 0.5164   15  3.965   13  0.172   13  0.145
PISTONS       43 35 8987 8817 -0.000 38.229   14  0.108   14  0.106    8  0.243   14 0.5116   13  3.970    9  0.281   12  0.204
MAVERICKS     38 41 9046 9116  0.032 40.372   15 -0.004   15 -0.004   22 -0.182   15 0.4982    9  3.988   19 -0.052   21 -0.311
KINGS         38 40 9038 9011  0.008 38.919   16 -0.015   16 -0.019   16 -0.001   16 0.4972   10  3.986   15  0.121   17 -0.122
HAWKS         37 41 9205 9341 -0.019 38.661   17 -0.062   17 -0.065   19 -0.093   17 0.4933    3  4.051    8  0.370   27 -0.556
MAGIC         38 40 8196 8235 -0.057 37.318   18 -0.074   18 -0.077   20 -0.095   18 0.4924   30  3.818   28 -0.809    5  0.619
SUNS          35 43 8895 9098  0.007 39.515   19 -0.108   19 -0.108   21 -0.176   20 0.4888   11  3.982   20 -0.074   20 -0.277
BULLS         36 42 9187 9351 -0.026 38.520   20 -0.110   20 -0.109   18 -0.070   19 0.4898    2  4.055    7  0.414   26 -0.555
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 35 44 8772 9019  0.008 40.169   21 -0.125   21 -0.123   17 -0.061   21 0.4877   22  3.941   21 -0.169   14  0.047
HEAT          35 43 8570 8576 -0.006 38.574   22 -0.126   22 -0.128   15  0.004   22 0.4872   28  3.882   23 -0.399    7  0.406
SPURS         32 46 8888 9100  0.003 39.426   23 -0.206   23 -0.202   23 -0.208   23 0.4791    8  3.993   18 -0.049   23 -0.366
RAPTORS       29 50 8745 9098 -0.034 39.357   24 -0.343   24 -0.344   24 -0.304   24 0.4675   18  3.948   22 -0.376   19 -0.233
NETS          25 53 8195 8725 -0.036 39.284   25 -0.451   25 -0.441   26 -0.518   25 0.4568   29  3.869   29 -0.986   16 -0.050
76ERS         23 55 8549 9033 -0.035 39.143   26 -0.516   26 -0.515   25 -0.499   26 0.4501   19  3.948   26 -0.574   25 -0.424
PELICANS      21 57 8577 9256 -0.003 40.491   27 -0.560   27 -0.558   27 -0.544   27 0.4472   14  3.967   25 -0.520   28 -0.568
HORNETS       19 59 8242 8892 -0.084 38.170   28 -0.687   28 -0.686   29 -0.704   28 0.4348   26  3.897   30 -1.035   24 -0.372
JAZZ          16 63 8826 9554 -0.010 40.796   29 -0.738   30 -0.740   28 -0.663   30 0.4304    7  4.004   24 -0.450   29 -0.876
WIZARDS       17 61 8447 9413 -0.060 39.515   30 -0.740   29 -0.735   30 -0.840   29 0.4318   12  3.980   27 -0.748   30 -0.933
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        48 30 8845 8747  0.011 38.807    6  0.277    6  0.283   14  0.153    6 0.5273   20  3.947   17  0.074   10  0.231
WARRIORS      46 32 8864 8641  0.049 39.555    7  0.255    7  0.253    7  0.254    8 0.5243   21  3.941   14  0.148    8  0.361
CLIPPERS      46 32 8775 8421  0.045 38.976    9  0.246    9  0.238    4  0.436    9 0.5233   27  3.895   16  0.099    2  0.773
KINGS         38 40 9038 9011  0.008 38.919   16 -0.015   16 -0.019   16 -0.001   16 0.4972   10  3.986   15  0.121   17 -0.122
SUNS          35 43 8895 9098  0.007 39.515   19 -0.108   19 -0.108   21 -0.176   20 0.4888   11  3.982   20 -0.074   20 -0.277

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       64 15 9441 8480  0.083 39.388    1  0.833    1  0.844    1  0.840    1 0.5770   16  3.961    2  0.831    1  0.850
TIMBERWOLVES  46 32 8895 8531  0.056 39.313    8  0.251    8  0.242    6  0.401    7 0.5246   25  3.918   12  0.175    4  0.627
NUGGETS       47 32 9535 9247  0.022 39.095   10  0.235   10  0.231   12  0.199   10 0.5231    4  4.044    4  0.625   18 -0.227
TRAIL BLAZERS 35 44 8772 9019  0.008 40.169   21 -0.125   21 -0.123   17 -0.061   21 0.4877   22  3.941   21 -0.169   14  0.047
JAZZ          16 63 8826 9554 -0.010 40.796   29 -0.738   30 -0.740   28 -0.663   30 0.4304    7  4.004   24 -0.450   29 -0.876

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       52 27 9035 8602  0.064 39.833    4  0.421    4  0.417    5  0.409    4 0.5406   24  3.922   10  0.207    6  0.612
GRIZZLIES     46 32 9490 9127  0.034 38.666   11  0.235   11  0.230    9  0.227   11 0.5226    1  4.066    3  0.771   22 -0.318
MAVERICKS     38 41 9046 9116  0.032 40.372   15 -0.004   15 -0.004   22 -0.182   15 0.4982    9  3.988   19 -0.052   21 -0.311
SPURS         32 46 8888 9100  0.003 39.426   23 -0.206   23 -0.202   23 -0.208   23 0.4791    8  3.993   18 -0.049   23 -0.366
PELICANS      21 57 8577 9256 -0.003 40.491   27 -0.560   27 -0.558   27 -0.544   27 0.4472   14  3.967   25 -0.520   28 -0.568

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     62 16 9526 8762  0.011 36.968    2  0.731    2  0.740    3  0.583    2 0.5680    5  4.034    1  0.959   11  0.207
PACERS        47 31 9165 8984 -0.029 37.445   12  0.215   12  0.212   11  0.214   12 0.5213    6  4.009    5  0.459   15 -0.030
BUCKS         45 34 9058 8884 -0.001 38.697   13  0.162   13  0.156   13  0.158   13 0.5164   15  3.965   13  0.172   13  0.145
PISTONS       43 35 8987 8817 -0.000 38.229   14  0.108   14  0.106    8  0.243   14 0.5116   13  3.970    9  0.281   12  0.204
BULLS         36 42 9187 9351 -0.026 38.520   20 -0.110   20 -0.109   18 -0.070   19 0.4898    2  4.055    7  0.414   26 -0.555

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         37 41 9205 9341 -0.019 38.661   17 -0.062   17 -0.065   19 -0.093   17 0.4933    3  4.051    8  0.370   27 -0.556
MAGIC         38 40 8196 8235 -0.057 37.318   18 -0.074   18 -0.077   20 -0.095   18 0.4924   30  3.818   28 -0.809    5  0.619
HEAT          35 43 8570 8576 -0.006 38.574   22 -0.126   22 -0.128   15  0.004   22 0.4872   28  3.882   23 -0.399    7  0.406
HORNETS       19 59 8242 8892 -0.084 38.170   28 -0.687   28 -0.686   29 -0.704   28 0.4348   26  3.897   30 -1.035   24 -0.372
WIZARDS       17 61 8447 9413 -0.060 39.515   30 -0.740   29 -0.735   30 -0.840   29 0.4318   12  3.980   27 -0.748   30 -0.933

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       58 20 9116 8394  0.014 37.204    3  0.585    3  0.586    2  0.605    3 0.5567   23  3.931    6  0.445    3  0.764
KNICKS        50 28 9056 8711 -0.020 37.164    5  0.309    5  0.311   10  0.226    5 0.5307   17  3.958   11  0.205    9  0.248
RAPTORS       29 50 8745 9098 -0.034 39.357   24 -0.343   24 -0.344   24 -0.304   24 0.4675   18  3.948   22 -0.376   19 -0.233
NETS          25 53 8195 8725 -0.036 39.284   25 -0.451   25 -0.441   26 -0.518   25 0.4568   29  3.869   29 -0.986   16 -0.050
76ERS         23 55 8549 9033 -0.035 39.143   26 -0.516   26 -0.515   25 -0.499   26 0.4501   19  3.948   26 -0.574   25 -0.424

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   233 158 0.596    1  0.191
NORTHWEST DIVISION 208 186 0.528    2  0.151
PACIFIC DIVISION   213 177 0.546    3  0.114
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 189 203 0.482    4 -0.005
ATLANTIC DIVISION  185 206 0.473    5 -0.083
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 146 244 0.374    6 -0.372

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.140 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Apr  7 05:30:17 2025
games through: Sun Apr  6 2025

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