Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       73 16 10710  9552  0.075 44.399    1  0.898    1  0.884    1  0.946    1 0.5785   16  3.963    2  0.963    1  0.930
CAVALIERS     68 20 10734  9840  0.006 41.967    2  0.705    2  0.681    2  0.652    2 0.5626    5  4.027    1  1.001    9  0.304
CELTICS       65 24 10261  9454 -0.007 42.171    3  0.567    3  0.544    3  0.556    3 0.5516   24  3.915    8  0.328    2  0.785
ROCKETS       55 34 10100  9730  0.074 45.982    4  0.356    4  0.339    8  0.280    4 0.5326   23  3.925   15  0.101    7  0.459
KNICKS        57 33 10341  9993  0.010 44.394    5  0.344    5  0.328    9  0.231    5 0.5309   20  3.943   13  0.143    8  0.319
NUGGETS       55 36 10883 10609  0.071 47.093    6  0.320    6  0.306   10  0.219    7 0.5289    4  4.037    4  0.620   18 -0.181
PACERS        56 33 10454 10223 -0.005 43.735    7  0.315    7  0.302    7  0.281    6 0.5298    7  4.001    5  0.493   14  0.069
WARRIORS      54 37 10278  9992  0.067 47.083    8  0.294    8  0.279    6  0.329    9 0.5265   22  3.929   11  0.173    6  0.484
CLIPPERS      53 36 10014  9628  0.059 45.410    9  0.291    9  0.270    4  0.417   10 0.5263   27  3.891   16  0.071    3  0.763
TIMBERWOLVES  53 35  9997  9563  0.044 44.301   10  0.289   10  0.266    5  0.402    8 0.5270   25  3.912   12  0.161    5  0.644
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        51 36  9800  9735  0.034 44.493   11  0.238   11  0.238   14  0.119   11 0.5222   19  3.944   17  0.040   11  0.199
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.063 45.039   12  0.192   12  0.179   11  0.193   12 0.5169    1  4.058    3  0.710   20 -0.324
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939 -0.000 43.529   13  0.165   13  0.156   13  0.135   13 0.5165   15  3.968   10  0.176   13  0.094
PISTONS       46 42 10111  9963  0.011 44.013   14  0.052   14  0.051   12  0.193   14 0.5061   14  3.971    9  0.247   12  0.138
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.022 43.050   15 -0.018   15 -0.024   21 -0.205   15 0.4961   10  3.984   19 -0.080   21 -0.329
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571 -0.003 41.432   16 -0.032   16 -0.044   15 -0.013   17 0.4949    9  3.984   14  0.113   16 -0.139
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.024 43.532   17 -0.035   17 -0.046   16 -0.043   16 0.4956   30  3.817   27 -0.749    4  0.663
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.043 41.196   18 -0.077   18 -0.085   20 -0.103   18 0.4914    2  4.054    7  0.390   27 -0.596
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.048 40.632   19 -0.107   19 -0.114   17 -0.066   19 0.4895    3  4.050    6  0.406   26 -0.538
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563 -0.000 41.776   20 -0.134   20 -0.139   23 -0.220   20 0.4859   11  3.981   20 -0.111   22 -0.329
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.014 43.821   21 -0.147   22 -0.154   19 -0.078   21 0.4856   28  3.885   24 -0.452   10  0.297
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.012 41.427   22 -0.150   21 -0.154   18 -0.067   22 0.4851   21  3.937   21 -0.185   15  0.052
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.009 41.471   23 -0.197   23 -0.204   22 -0.215   23 0.4791    8  3.996   18 -0.027   23 -0.403
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.056 40.534   24 -0.359   24 -0.372   24 -0.306   24 0.4649   17  3.953   22 -0.343   19 -0.269
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.057 41.158   25 -0.469   25 -0.476   26 -0.566   25 0.4543   29  3.875   29 -0.992   17 -0.141
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.065 40.648   26 -0.536   26 -0.555   25 -0.528   26 0.4473   18  3.949   26 -0.583   25 -0.472
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.017 42.692   27 -0.597   27 -0.614   27 -0.631   27 0.4432   13  3.976   25 -0.549   28 -0.714
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.085 40.744   28 -0.708   28 -0.730   29 -0.761   28 0.4321   26  3.895   30 -1.088   24 -0.434
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.017 42.607   29 -0.721   29 -0.745   28 -0.657   29 0.4311    6  4.008   23 -0.406   29 -0.908
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.078 41.414   30 -0.737   30 -0.756   30 -0.856   30 0.4306   12  3.978   28 -0.765   30 -0.947
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      54 37 10278  9992  0.067 47.083    8  0.294    8  0.279    6  0.329    9 0.5265   22  3.929   11  0.173    6  0.484
CLIPPERS      53 36 10014  9628  0.059 45.410    9  0.291    9  0.270    4  0.417   10 0.5263   27  3.891   16  0.071    3  0.763
LAKERS        51 36  9800  9735  0.034 44.493   11  0.238   11  0.238   14  0.119   11 0.5222   19  3.944   17  0.040   11  0.199
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571 -0.003 41.432   16 -0.032   16 -0.044   15 -0.013   17 0.4949    9  3.984   14  0.113   16 -0.139
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563 -0.000 41.776   20 -0.134   20 -0.139   23 -0.220   20 0.4859   11  3.981   20 -0.111   22 -0.329

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       73 16 10710  9552  0.075 44.399    1  0.898    1  0.884    1  0.946    1 0.5785   16  3.963    2  0.963    1  0.930
NUGGETS       55 36 10883 10609  0.071 47.093    6  0.320    6  0.306   10  0.219    7 0.5289    4  4.037    4  0.620   18 -0.181
TIMBERWOLVES  53 35  9997  9563  0.044 44.301   10  0.289   10  0.266    5  0.402    8 0.5270   25  3.912   12  0.161    5  0.644
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.012 41.427   22 -0.150   21 -0.154   18 -0.067   22 0.4851   21  3.937   21 -0.185   15  0.052
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.017 42.607   29 -0.721   29 -0.745   28 -0.657   29 0.4311    6  4.008   23 -0.406   29 -0.908

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       55 34 10100  9730  0.074 45.982    4  0.356    4  0.339    8  0.280    4 0.5326   23  3.925   15  0.101    7  0.459
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.063 45.039   12  0.192   12  0.179   11  0.193   12 0.5169    1  4.058    3  0.710   20 -0.324
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.022 43.050   15 -0.018   15 -0.024   21 -0.205   15 0.4961   10  3.984   19 -0.080   21 -0.329
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.009 41.471   23 -0.197   23 -0.204   22 -0.215   23 0.4791    8  3.996   18 -0.027   23 -0.403
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.017 42.692   27 -0.597   27 -0.614   27 -0.631   27 0.4432   13  3.976   25 -0.549   28 -0.714

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     68 20 10734  9840  0.006 41.967    2  0.705    2  0.681    2  0.652    2 0.5626    5  4.027    1  1.001    9  0.304
PACERS        56 33 10454 10223 -0.005 43.735    7  0.315    7  0.302    7  0.281    6 0.5298    7  4.001    5  0.493   14  0.069
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939 -0.000 43.529   13  0.165   13  0.156   13  0.135   13 0.5165   15  3.968   10  0.176   13  0.094
PISTONS       46 42 10111  9963  0.011 44.013   14  0.052   14  0.051   12  0.193   14 0.5061   14  3.971    9  0.247   12  0.138
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.048 40.632   19 -0.107   19 -0.114   17 -0.066   19 0.4895    3  4.050    6  0.406   26 -0.538

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.024 43.532   17 -0.035   17 -0.046   16 -0.043   16 0.4956   30  3.817   27 -0.749    4  0.663
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.043 41.196   18 -0.077   18 -0.085   20 -0.103   18 0.4914    2  4.054    7  0.390   27 -0.596
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.014 43.821   21 -0.147   22 -0.154   19 -0.078   21 0.4856   28  3.885   24 -0.452   10  0.297
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.085 40.744   28 -0.708   28 -0.730   29 -0.761   28 0.4321   26  3.895   30 -1.088   24 -0.434
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.078 41.414   30 -0.737   30 -0.756   30 -0.856   30 0.4306   12  3.978   28 -0.765   30 -0.947

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 24 10261  9454 -0.007 42.171    3  0.567    3  0.544    3  0.556    3 0.5516   24  3.915    8  0.328    2  0.785
KNICKS        57 33 10341  9993  0.010 44.394    5  0.344    5  0.328    9  0.231    5 0.5309   20  3.943   13  0.143    8  0.319
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.056 40.534   24 -0.359   24 -0.372   24 -0.306   24 0.4649   17  3.953   22 -0.343   19 -0.269
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.057 41.158   25 -0.469   25 -0.476   26 -0.566   25 0.4543   29  3.875   29 -0.992   17 -0.141
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.065 40.648   26 -0.536   26 -0.555   25 -0.528   26 0.4473   18  3.949   26 -0.583   25 -0.472

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   259 177 0.594    1  0.197
NORTHWEST DIVISION 234 198 0.542    2  0.158
PACIFIC DIVISION   234 198 0.542    3  0.110
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 199 226 0.468    4 -0.049
ATLANTIC DIVISION  202 223 0.475    5 -0.108
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 159 265 0.375    6 -0.391

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.141 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu May  8 05:30:12 2025
games through: Wed May  7 2025

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.