Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KINGS         71 27 10195  9535  0.106 51.210    1  2.136    1  0.610    2  0.512    2 0.5608  3.880  0.971  0.054  0.000
LAKERS        73 28 10163  9507  0.130 53.608    2  2.127    2  0.604    1  0.531    1 0.5617  3.823  0.712  0.351  0.000
SPURS         62 30  8843  8304  0.088 47.599    3  1.900    4  0.463    3  0.450    4 0.5460  3.726  0.176  0.724  0.000
MAVERICKS     61 29  9501  9150  0.074 46.683    4  1.890    3  0.465    4  0.335    3 0.5470  3.936  1.069 -0.399  0.000
NETS          63 39  9796  9456  0.007 50.781    5  1.548    5  0.273    7  0.184    5 0.5285  3.770  0.115  0.254  0.000
TIMBERWOLVES  50 35  8451  8206  0.044 43.419    6  1.465    6  0.220    9  0.116    6 0.5234  3.831  0.336 -0.104  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 36  8199  7970  0.051 43.689    7  1.429    7  0.198    5  0.218    8 0.5211  3.772  0.157  0.280  0.000
CELTICS       58 40  9361  9135 -0.009 48.498    8  1.426    8  0.194    6  0.185    7 0.5211  3.779  0.155  0.214  0.000
PISTONS       54 38  8565  8394 -0.037 44.651    9  1.344    9  0.155   12  0.066    9 0.5178  3.737 -0.157  0.290  0.000
SONICS        47 40  8445  8248  0.059 45.046   10  1.288   10  0.126    8  0.171   10 0.5129  3.796  0.222  0.121  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JAZZ          45 41  8223  8154  0.046 44.528   11  1.199   11  0.084   10  0.095   11 0.5087  3.774  0.043  0.147  0.000
HORNETS       48 43  8565  8486 -0.021 44.987   12  1.112   12  0.037   11  0.077   12 0.5046  3.752 -0.075  0.229  0.000
MAGIC         45 41  8615  8506 -0.031 42.079   13  1.090   13  0.021   16 -0.046   13 0.5025  3.877  0.397 -0.489  0.000
76ERS         45 42  7906  7819 -0.022 42.922   14  1.072   14  0.011   14 -0.004   14 0.5023  3.691 -0.434  0.426  0.000
PACERS        44 43  8396  8373 -0.025 42.990   15  1.043   15 -0.007   13  0.030   15 0.4994  3.807  0.133 -0.073  0.000
RAPTORS       44 43  7913  7963 -0.034 42.943   16  1.031   16 -0.012   17 -0.065   16 0.4992  3.711 -0.408  0.278  0.000
CLIPPERS      39 43  7846  7884  0.013 41.808   17  0.980   17 -0.044   15 -0.022   18 0.4947  3.790  0.003 -0.047  0.000
BUCKS         41 41  7996  8014 -0.055 39.764   18  0.972   18 -0.048   20 -0.123   17 0.4954  3.833  0.107 -0.353  0.000
SUNS          36 46  7802  7858  0.012 41.844   19  0.818   19 -0.133   18 -0.076   19 0.4860  3.779 -0.105 -0.047  0.000
WIZARDS       37 45  7609  7724 -0.044 40.344   20  0.791   20 -0.145   21 -0.132   20 0.4850  3.761 -0.244 -0.021  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HEAT          36 46  7150  7276 -0.058 40.019   21  0.729   21 -0.176   19 -0.120   21 0.4810  3.617 -0.875  0.635  0.000
HAWKS         33 49  7711  8058 -0.066 40.337   22  0.576   22 -0.266   23 -0.263   22 0.4724  3.814 -0.127 -0.398  0.000
KNICKS        30 52  7514  7841 -0.063 40.361   23  0.443   23 -0.348   24 -0.271   23 0.4638  3.756 -0.405 -0.137  0.000
ROCKETS       28 54  7572  7973 -0.008 42.384   24  0.431   24 -0.353   26 -0.338   24 0.4627  3.753 -0.487 -0.189  0.000
CAVALIERS     29 53  7812  8085 -0.060 40.322   25  0.390   25 -0.377   22 -0.223   25 0.4611  3.822 -0.047 -0.398  0.000
NUGGETS       27 55  7559  8036 -0.012 42.475   26  0.373   26 -0.383   27 -0.360   26 0.4598  3.772 -0.421 -0.299  0.000
GRIZZLIES     23 59  7372  7982 -0.018 42.664   27  0.172   27 -0.499   28 -0.433   27 0.4482  3.745 -0.621 -0.246  0.000
WARRIORS      21 61  8009  8452 -0.009 42.403   28  0.072   28 -0.570   25 -0.325   28 0.4424  3.886  0.161 -0.812  0.000
BULLS         21 61  7335  8035 -0.078 40.802   29  0.000   29 -0.604   29 -0.532   29 0.4376  3.757 -0.661 -0.403  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KINGS         71 27 10195  9535  0.106 51.210    1  2.136    1  0.610    2  0.512    2 0.5608  3.880  0.971  0.054  0.000
LAKERS        73 28 10163  9507  0.130 53.608    2  2.127    2  0.604    1  0.531    1 0.5617  3.823  0.712  0.351  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 36  8199  7970  0.051 43.689    7  1.429    7  0.198    5  0.218    8 0.5211  3.772  0.157  0.280  0.000
SONICS        47 40  8445  8248  0.059 45.046   10  1.288   10  0.126    8  0.171   10 0.5129  3.796  0.222  0.121  0.000
CLIPPERS      39 43  7846  7884  0.013 41.808   17  0.980   17 -0.044   15 -0.022   18 0.4947  3.790  0.003 -0.047  0.000
SUNS          36 46  7802  7858  0.012 41.844   19  0.818   19 -0.133   18 -0.076   19 0.4860  3.779 -0.105 -0.047  0.000
WARRIORS      21 61  8009  8452 -0.009 42.403   28  0.072   28 -0.570   25 -0.325   28 0.4424  3.886  0.161 -0.812  0.000

MIDWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SPURS         62 30  8843  8304  0.088 47.599    3  1.900    4  0.463    3  0.450    4 0.5460  3.726  0.176  0.724  0.000
MAVERICKS     61 29  9501  9150  0.074 46.683    4  1.890    3  0.465    4  0.335    3 0.5470  3.936  1.069 -0.399  0.000
TIMBERWOLVES  50 35  8451  8206  0.044 43.419    6  1.465    6  0.220    9  0.116    6 0.5234  3.831  0.336 -0.104  0.000
JAZZ          45 41  8223  8154  0.046 44.528   11  1.199   11  0.084   10  0.095   11 0.5087  3.774  0.043  0.147  0.000
ROCKETS       28 54  7572  7973 -0.008 42.384   24  0.431   24 -0.353   26 -0.338   24 0.4627  3.753 -0.487 -0.189  0.000
NUGGETS       27 55  7559  8036 -0.012 42.475   26  0.373   26 -0.383   27 -0.360   26 0.4598  3.772 -0.421 -0.299  0.000
GRIZZLIES     23 59  7372  7982 -0.018 42.664   27  0.172   27 -0.499   28 -0.433   27 0.4482  3.745 -0.621 -0.246  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PISTONS       54 38  8565  8394 -0.037 44.651    9  1.344    9  0.155   12  0.066    9 0.5178  3.737 -0.157  0.290  0.000
HORNETS       48 43  8565  8486 -0.021 44.987   12  1.112   12  0.037   11  0.077   12 0.5046  3.752 -0.075  0.229  0.000
PACERS        44 43  8396  8373 -0.025 42.990   15  1.043   15 -0.007   13  0.030   15 0.4994  3.807  0.133 -0.073  0.000
RAPTORS       44 43  7913  7963 -0.034 42.943   16  1.031   16 -0.012   17 -0.065   16 0.4992  3.711 -0.408  0.278  0.000
BUCKS         41 41  7996  8014 -0.055 39.764   18  0.972   18 -0.048   20 -0.123   17 0.4954  3.833  0.107 -0.353  0.000
HAWKS         33 49  7711  8058 -0.066 40.337   22  0.576   22 -0.266   23 -0.263   22 0.4724  3.814 -0.127 -0.398  0.000
CAVALIERS     29 53  7812  8085 -0.060 40.322   25  0.390   25 -0.377   22 -0.223   25 0.4611  3.822 -0.047 -0.398  0.000
BULLS         21 61  7335  8035 -0.078 40.802   29  0.000   29 -0.604   29 -0.532   29 0.4376  3.757 -0.661 -0.403  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NETS          63 39  9796  9456  0.007 50.781    5  1.548    5  0.273    7  0.184    5 0.5285  3.770  0.115  0.254  0.000
CELTICS       58 40  9361  9135 -0.009 48.498    8  1.426    8  0.194    6  0.185    7 0.5211  3.779  0.155  0.214  0.000
MAGIC         45 41  8615  8506 -0.031 42.079   13  1.090   13  0.021   16 -0.046   13 0.5025  3.877  0.397 -0.489  0.000
76ERS         45 42  7906  7819 -0.022 42.922   14  1.072   14  0.011   14 -0.004   14 0.5023  3.691 -0.434  0.426  0.000
WIZARDS       37 45  7609  7724 -0.044 40.344   20  0.791   20 -0.145   21 -0.132   20 0.4850  3.761 -0.244 -0.021  0.000
HEAT          36 46  7150  7276 -0.058 40.019   21  0.729   21 -0.176   19 -0.120   21 0.4810  3.617 -0.875  0.635  0.000
KNICKS        30 52  7514  7841 -0.063 40.361   23  0.443   23 -0.348   24 -0.271   23 0.4638  3.756 -0.405 -0.137  0.000

DIVISION            W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION  336 281 0.545    1  0.184
ATLANTIC DIVISION 314 305 0.507    2 -0.021
MIDWEST DIVISION  296 303 0.494    3 -0.022
CENTRAL DIVISION  314 371 0.458    4 -0.183

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.283 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 31 14:11:55 2007
games through: Wed Jun 12 2002

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.