Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO  76 30 10131  9555  0.125 55.773    1  0.657    1  0.613    1  0.548    1 0.5604   24  3.721    8  0.276    1  0.821
SACRAMENTO   66 28  9637  9076  0.111 48.724    2  0.608    2  0.564    2  0.455    2 0.5549    4  3.862    2  0.846   16  0.064
DALLAS       70 32 10526  9900  0.137 53.874    3  0.598    3  0.551    3  0.405    3 0.5547    2  3.886    1  0.911   18 -0.101
PORTLAND     53 36  8512  8291  0.087 46.403    4  0.298    4  0.284    6  0.229    5 0.5290   18  3.753   11  0.102    5  0.355
LA LAKERS    56 38  9433  9239  0.077 48.890    5  0.295    5  0.283    5  0.254    4 0.5300    5  3.861    4  0.639   19 -0.131
MINNESOTA    53 35  8649  8517  0.047 44.930    6  0.288    6  0.279    9  0.125    6 0.5281    9  3.825    6  0.337   17 -0.086
NEW JERSEY   63 39  9693  9198  0.013 49.717    7  0.284    7  0.271    4  0.271    7 0.5269   21  3.737   14  0.071    3  0.471
DETROIT      58 41  9021  8704 -0.018 47.709    8  0.188    9  0.172    8  0.144    9 0.5166   27  3.651   24 -0.443    2  0.731
UTAH         48 39  8227  8084  0.070 45.014    9  0.185    8  0.173   12  0.095    8 0.5175   19  3.748   16 -0.052    9  0.243
PHILADELPHIA 54 40  9046  8847 -0.014 45.761   10  0.162   10  0.150    7  0.163   10 0.5144   14  3.795    9  0.232   13  0.094
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANA      50 38  8487  8235 -0.047 41.594   11  0.117   11  0.108   14  0.083   12 0.5104   15  3.780   13  0.081   15  0.086
PHOENIX      46 42  8345  8284  0.064 45.686   12  0.105   12  0.098   10  0.121   11 0.5111   16  3.769   15  0.070   10  0.172
NEW ORLEANS  49 39  8256  8093 -0.035 42.264   13  0.104   13  0.097   13  0.086   13 0.5087   22  3.730   18 -0.144    7  0.316
HOUSTON      43 39  7688  7567  0.034 41.475   14  0.081   14  0.071   11  0.096   14 0.5077   23  3.723   20 -0.166    4  0.358
BOSTON       48 44  8545  8583 -0.017 45.449   15  0.038   15  0.032   17 -0.035   15 0.5022   20  3.743   22 -0.206   12  0.136
ORLANDO      45 44  8691  8731 -0.035 43.383   16 -0.003   16 -0.016   18 -0.066   17 0.4972    6  3.859    7  0.310   24 -0.442
SEATTLE      40 42  7555  7565  0.026 41.656   17 -0.004   17 -0.017   15  0.028   16 0.4989   26  3.711   23 -0.292    6  0.348
MILWAUKEE    44 44  8745  8752 -0.027 43.072   18 -0.008   18 -0.023   16 -0.025   18 0.4961    3  3.873    5  0.419   25 -0.469
GOLDEN STATE 38 44  8400  8493  0.020 41.791   19 -0.053   19 -0.069   19 -0.067   19 0.4931    1  3.948    3  0.753   29 -0.887
NEW YORK     37 45  7860  7971 -0.050 39.802   20 -0.135   20 -0.146   20 -0.099   20 0.4834   10  3.818   12  0.081   20 -0.279
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON   37 45  7502  7585 -0.065 39.290   21 -0.155   21 -0.167   22 -0.183   21 0.4821   25  3.721   25 -0.457   14  0.091
ATLANTA      35 47  7714  8006 -0.075 39.652   22 -0.214   22 -0.222   24 -0.261   22 0.4763   13  3.800   21 -0.170   23 -0.353
MEMPHIS      28 54  7995  8260  0.009 42.065   23 -0.336   23 -0.358   21 -0.155   23 0.4640    7  3.853   10  0.192   26 -0.502
CHICAGO      30 52  7786  8207 -0.077 39.990   24 -0.349   24 -0.367   25 -0.354   24 0.4626    8  3.827   17 -0.131   27 -0.577
LA CLIPPERS  27 55  7693  8031  0.004 42.157   25 -0.358   25 -0.380   23 -0.242   25 0.4611   12  3.801   19 -0.145   22 -0.338
MIAMI        25 57  7016  7430 -0.070 40.222   26 -0.475   26 -0.501   27 -0.413   26 0.4486   29  3.631   28 -1.086    8  0.260
TORONTO      24 58  7453  7934 -0.090 39.841   27 -0.512   27 -0.540   26 -0.403   27 0.4441   17  3.759   27 -0.502   21 -0.303
DENVER       17 65  6901  7580 -0.016 42.648   28 -0.673   28 -0.703   28 -0.524   28 0.4321   28  3.633   29 -1.186   11  0.139
CLEVELAND    17 65  7495  8284 -0.095 40.476   29 -0.733   29 -0.768   29 -0.597   29 0.4248   11  3.807   26 -0.469   28 -0.726
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SACRAMENTO   66 28  9637  9076  0.111 48.724    2  0.608    2  0.564    2  0.455    2 0.5549    4  3.862    2  0.846   16  0.064
PORTLAND     53 36  8512  8291  0.087 46.403    4  0.298    4  0.284    6  0.229    5 0.5290   18  3.753   11  0.102    5  0.355
LA LAKERS    56 38  9433  9239  0.077 48.890    5  0.295    5  0.283    5  0.254    4 0.5300    5  3.861    4  0.639   19 -0.131
PHOENIX      46 42  8345  8284  0.064 45.686   12  0.105   12  0.098   10  0.121   11 0.5111   16  3.769   15  0.070   10  0.172
SEATTLE      40 42  7555  7565  0.026 41.656   17 -0.004   17 -0.017   15  0.028   16 0.4989   26  3.711   23 -0.292    6  0.348
GOLDEN STATE 38 44  8400  8493  0.020 41.791   19 -0.053   19 -0.069   19 -0.067   19 0.4931    1  3.948    3  0.753   29 -0.887
LA CLIPPERS  27 55  7693  8031  0.004 42.157   25 -0.358   25 -0.380   23 -0.242   25 0.4611   12  3.801   19 -0.145   22 -0.338

MIDWEST DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO  76 30 10131  9555  0.125 55.773    1  0.657    1  0.613    1  0.548    1 0.5604   24  3.721    8  0.276    1  0.821
DALLAS       70 32 10526  9900  0.137 53.874    3  0.598    3  0.551    3  0.405    3 0.5547    2  3.886    1  0.911   18 -0.101
MINNESOTA    53 35  8649  8517  0.047 44.930    6  0.288    6  0.279    9  0.125    6 0.5281    9  3.825    6  0.337   17 -0.086
UTAH         48 39  8227  8084  0.070 45.014    9  0.185    8  0.173   12  0.095    8 0.5175   19  3.748   16 -0.052    9  0.243
HOUSTON      43 39  7688  7567  0.034 41.475   14  0.081   14  0.071   11  0.096   14 0.5077   23  3.723   20 -0.166    4  0.358
MEMPHIS      28 54  7995  8260  0.009 42.065   23 -0.336   23 -0.358   21 -0.155   23 0.4640    7  3.853   10  0.192   26 -0.502
DENVER       17 65  6901  7580 -0.016 42.648   28 -0.673   28 -0.703   28 -0.524   28 0.4321   28  3.633   29 -1.186   11  0.139

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT      58 41  9021  8704 -0.018 47.709    8  0.188    9  0.172    8  0.144    9 0.5166   27  3.651   24 -0.443    2  0.731
INDIANA      50 38  8487  8235 -0.047 41.594   11  0.117   11  0.108   14  0.083   12 0.5104   15  3.780   13  0.081   15  0.086
NEW ORLEANS  49 39  8256  8093 -0.035 42.264   13  0.104   13  0.097   13  0.086   13 0.5087   22  3.730   18 -0.144    7  0.316
MILWAUKEE    44 44  8745  8752 -0.027 43.072   18 -0.008   18 -0.023   16 -0.025   18 0.4961    3  3.873    5  0.419   25 -0.469
ATLANTA      35 47  7714  8006 -0.075 39.652   22 -0.214   22 -0.222   24 -0.261   22 0.4763   13  3.800   21 -0.170   23 -0.353
CHICAGO      30 52  7786  8207 -0.077 39.990   24 -0.349   24 -0.367   25 -0.354   24 0.4626    8  3.827   17 -0.131   27 -0.577
TORONTO      24 58  7453  7934 -0.090 39.841   27 -0.512   27 -0.540   26 -0.403   27 0.4441   17  3.759   27 -0.502   21 -0.303
CLEVELAND    17 65  7495  8284 -0.095 40.476   29 -0.733   29 -0.768   29 -0.597   29 0.4248   11  3.807   26 -0.469   28 -0.726

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY   63 39  9693  9198  0.013 49.717    7  0.284    7  0.271    4  0.271    7 0.5269   21  3.737   14  0.071    3  0.471
PHILADELPHIA 54 40  9046  8847 -0.014 45.761   10  0.162   10  0.150    7  0.163   10 0.5144   14  3.795    9  0.232   13  0.094
BOSTON       48 44  8545  8583 -0.017 45.449   15  0.038   15  0.032   17 -0.035   15 0.5022   20  3.743   22 -0.206   12  0.136
ORLANDO      45 44  8691  8731 -0.035 43.383   16 -0.003   16 -0.016   18 -0.066   17 0.4972    6  3.859    7  0.310   24 -0.442
NEW YORK     37 45  7860  7971 -0.050 39.802   20 -0.135   20 -0.146   20 -0.099   20 0.4834   10  3.818   12  0.081   20 -0.279
WASHINGTON   37 45  7502  7585 -0.065 39.290   21 -0.155   21 -0.167   22 -0.183   21 0.4821   25  3.721   25 -0.457   14  0.091
MIAMI        25 57  7016  7430 -0.070 40.222   26 -0.475   26 -0.501   27 -0.413   26 0.4486   29  3.631   28 -1.086    8  0.260

DIVISION            W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION  326 285 0.534    1  0.115
MIDWEST DIVISION  335 294 0.533    2  0.111
ATLANTIC DIVISION 309 314 0.496    3 -0.051
CENTRAL DIVISION  307 384 0.444    4 -0.211

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.326 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.031 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:00:38 2024
games through: Sun Jun 15 2003

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