Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO  76 30 10131  9555  0.121 55.781    1  0.658    1  0.610    1  0.545    1 0.5604   24  3.721    8  0.273    1  0.817
SACRAMENTO   66 28  9637  9076  0.108 48.730    2  0.610    2  0.561    2  0.452    2 0.5549    4  3.862    2  0.842   16  0.061
DALLAS       70 32 10526  9900  0.134 53.879    3  0.599    3  0.548    3  0.402    3 0.5547    2  3.886    1  0.908   18 -0.105
PORTLAND     53 36  8512  8291  0.083 46.407    4  0.298    4  0.281    6  0.225    5 0.5290   18  3.753   11  0.098    5  0.352
LA LAKERS    56 38  9433  9239  0.074 48.897    5  0.295    5  0.280    5  0.250    4 0.5300    5  3.861    4  0.635   19 -0.135
MINNESOTA    53 35  8649  8517  0.043 44.935    6  0.288    6  0.276    9  0.122    6 0.5281    9  3.825    6  0.333   17 -0.090
NEW JERSEY   63 39  9693  9198  0.009 49.723    7  0.284    7  0.268    4  0.267    7 0.5269   21  3.737   14  0.067    3  0.467
DETROIT      58 41  9021  8704 -0.022 47.717    8  0.188    9  0.169    8  0.140    9 0.5166   27  3.651   24 -0.447    2  0.727
UTAH         48 39  8227  8084  0.067 45.016    9  0.185    8  0.169   12  0.091    8 0.5175   19  3.748   16 -0.056    9  0.239
PHILADELPHIA 54 40  9046  8847 -0.018 45.772   10  0.161   10  0.147    7  0.159   10 0.5144   14  3.795    9  0.228   13  0.091
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANA      50 38  8487  8235 -0.050 41.597   11  0.117   11  0.105   14  0.080   12 0.5104   15  3.780   13  0.077   15  0.082
PHOENIX      46 42  8345  8284  0.060 45.694   12  0.105   12  0.095   10  0.118   11 0.5111   16  3.769   15  0.067   10  0.169
NEW ORLEANS  49 39  8256  8093 -0.038 42.273   13  0.104   13  0.093   13  0.082   13 0.5087   22  3.730   18 -0.148    7  0.312
HOUSTON      43 39  7688  7567  0.030 41.480   14  0.080   14  0.068   11  0.092   14 0.5077   23  3.723   20 -0.170    4  0.354
BOSTON       48 44  8545  8583 -0.020 45.463   15  0.039   15  0.029   17 -0.039   15 0.5022   20  3.743   22 -0.209   12  0.132
ORLANDO      45 44  8691  8731 -0.039 43.395   16 -0.003   16 -0.020   18 -0.070   17 0.4972    6  3.859    7  0.306   24 -0.446
SEATTLE      40 42  7555  7565  0.023 41.660   17 -0.003   17 -0.021   15  0.024   16 0.4989   26  3.711   23 -0.296    6  0.344
MILWAUKEE    44 44  8745  8752 -0.031 43.085   18 -0.008   18 -0.026   16 -0.028   18 0.4961    3  3.873    5  0.416   25 -0.472
GOLDEN STATE 38 44  8400  8493  0.016 41.792   19 -0.054   19 -0.073   19 -0.071   19 0.4931    1  3.948    3  0.749   29 -0.891
NEW YORK     37 45  7860  7971 -0.053 39.808   20 -0.136   20 -0.150   20 -0.102   20 0.4834   10  3.818   12  0.078   20 -0.282
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON   37 45  7502  7585 -0.069 39.300   21 -0.156   21 -0.171   22 -0.187   21 0.4821   25  3.721   25 -0.460   14  0.087
ATLANTA      35 47  7714  8006 -0.078 39.658   22 -0.214   22 -0.226   24 -0.265   22 0.4763   13  3.800   21 -0.173   23 -0.356
MEMPHIS      28 54  7995  8260  0.005 42.070   23 -0.337   23 -0.362   21 -0.159   23 0.4640    7  3.853   10  0.188   26 -0.506
CHICAGO      30 52  7786  8207 -0.080 39.999   24 -0.349   24 -0.371   25 -0.358   24 0.4626    8  3.827   17 -0.134   27 -0.581
LA CLIPPERS  27 55  7693  8031 -0.000 42.162   25 -0.359   25 -0.384   23 -0.246   25 0.4611   12  3.801   19 -0.149   22 -0.342
MIAMI        25 57  7016  7430 -0.074 40.232   26 -0.475   26 -0.505   27 -0.417   26 0.4486   29  3.631   28 -1.090    8  0.256
TORONTO      24 58  7453  7934 -0.093 39.846   27 -0.512   27 -0.544   26 -0.406   27 0.4441   17  3.759   27 -0.506   21 -0.307
DENVER       17 65  6901  7580 -0.020 42.652   28 -0.673   28 -0.707   28 -0.528   28 0.4321   28  3.633   29 -1.190   11  0.135
CLEVELAND    17 65  7495  8284 -0.099 40.482   29 -0.733   29 -0.772   29 -0.601   29 0.4248   11  3.807   26 -0.472   28 -0.730
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SACRAMENTO   66 28  9637  9076  0.108 48.730    2  0.610    2  0.561    2  0.452    2 0.5549    4  3.862    2  0.842   16  0.061
PORTLAND     53 36  8512  8291  0.083 46.407    4  0.298    4  0.281    6  0.225    5 0.5290   18  3.753   11  0.098    5  0.352
LA LAKERS    56 38  9433  9239  0.074 48.897    5  0.295    5  0.280    5  0.250    4 0.5300    5  3.861    4  0.635   19 -0.135
PHOENIX      46 42  8345  8284  0.060 45.694   12  0.105   12  0.095   10  0.118   11 0.5111   16  3.769   15  0.067   10  0.169
SEATTLE      40 42  7555  7565  0.023 41.660   17 -0.003   17 -0.021   15  0.024   16 0.4989   26  3.711   23 -0.296    6  0.344
GOLDEN STATE 38 44  8400  8493  0.016 41.792   19 -0.054   19 -0.073   19 -0.071   19 0.4931    1  3.948    3  0.749   29 -0.891
LA CLIPPERS  27 55  7693  8031 -0.000 42.162   25 -0.359   25 -0.384   23 -0.246   25 0.4611   12  3.801   19 -0.149   22 -0.342

MIDWEST DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO  76 30 10131  9555  0.121 55.781    1  0.658    1  0.610    1  0.545    1 0.5604   24  3.721    8  0.273    1  0.817
DALLAS       70 32 10526  9900  0.134 53.879    3  0.599    3  0.548    3  0.402    3 0.5547    2  3.886    1  0.908   18 -0.105
MINNESOTA    53 35  8649  8517  0.043 44.935    6  0.288    6  0.276    9  0.122    6 0.5281    9  3.825    6  0.333   17 -0.090
UTAH         48 39  8227  8084  0.067 45.016    9  0.185    8  0.169   12  0.091    8 0.5175   19  3.748   16 -0.056    9  0.239
HOUSTON      43 39  7688  7567  0.030 41.480   14  0.080   14  0.068   11  0.092   14 0.5077   23  3.723   20 -0.170    4  0.354
MEMPHIS      28 54  7995  8260  0.005 42.070   23 -0.337   23 -0.362   21 -0.159   23 0.4640    7  3.853   10  0.188   26 -0.506
DENVER       17 65  6901  7580 -0.020 42.652   28 -0.673   28 -0.707   28 -0.528   28 0.4321   28  3.633   29 -1.190   11  0.135

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT      58 41  9021  8704 -0.022 47.717    8  0.188    9  0.169    8  0.140    9 0.5166   27  3.651   24 -0.447    2  0.727
INDIANA      50 38  8487  8235 -0.050 41.597   11  0.117   11  0.105   14  0.080   12 0.5104   15  3.780   13  0.077   15  0.082
NEW ORLEANS  49 39  8256  8093 -0.038 42.273   13  0.104   13  0.093   13  0.082   13 0.5087   22  3.730   18 -0.148    7  0.312
MILWAUKEE    44 44  8745  8752 -0.031 43.085   18 -0.008   18 -0.026   16 -0.028   18 0.4961    3  3.873    5  0.416   25 -0.472
ATLANTA      35 47  7714  8006 -0.078 39.658   22 -0.214   22 -0.226   24 -0.265   22 0.4763   13  3.800   21 -0.173   23 -0.356
CHICAGO      30 52  7786  8207 -0.080 39.999   24 -0.349   24 -0.371   25 -0.358   24 0.4626    8  3.827   17 -0.134   27 -0.581
TORONTO      24 58  7453  7934 -0.093 39.846   27 -0.512   27 -0.544   26 -0.406   27 0.4441   17  3.759   27 -0.506   21 -0.307
CLEVELAND    17 65  7495  8284 -0.099 40.482   29 -0.733   29 -0.772   29 -0.601   29 0.4248   11  3.807   26 -0.472   28 -0.730

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY   63 39  9693  9198  0.009 49.723    7  0.284    7  0.268    4  0.267    7 0.5269   21  3.737   14  0.067    3  0.467
PHILADELPHIA 54 40  9046  8847 -0.018 45.772   10  0.161   10  0.147    7  0.159   10 0.5144   14  3.795    9  0.228   13  0.091
BOSTON       48 44  8545  8583 -0.020 45.463   15  0.039   15  0.029   17 -0.039   15 0.5022   20  3.743   22 -0.209   12  0.132
ORLANDO      45 44  8691  8731 -0.039 43.395   16 -0.003   16 -0.020   18 -0.070   17 0.4972    6  3.859    7  0.306   24 -0.446
NEW YORK     37 45  7860  7971 -0.053 39.808   20 -0.136   20 -0.150   20 -0.102   20 0.4834   10  3.818   12  0.078   20 -0.282
WASHINGTON   37 45  7502  7585 -0.069 39.300   21 -0.156   21 -0.171   22 -0.187   21 0.4821   25  3.721   25 -0.460   14  0.087
MIAMI        25 57  7016  7430 -0.074 40.232   26 -0.475   26 -0.505   27 -0.417   26 0.4486   29  3.631   28 -1.090    8  0.256

DIVISION            W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION  326 285 0.534    1  0.111
MIDWEST DIVISION  335 294 0.533    2  0.107
ATLANTIC DIVISION 309 314 0.496    3 -0.055
CENTRAL DIVISION  307 384 0.444    4 -0.214

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.326 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.031 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:44:23 2020
games through: Sun Jun 15 2003

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.