Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHOENIX       71 26 10734 10087  0.095 51.032    1  0.635    1  0.613    1  0.446    1 0.5610    1  4.012    1  1.495   28 -0.602
SAN ANTONIO   75 30 10117  9377  0.107 55.579    2  0.616    2  0.588    2  0.444    2 0.5599   26  3.704   15 -0.008    2  0.896
MIAMI         70 27  9797  9198 -0.013 47.383    3  0.533    3  0.500    5  0.356    3 0.5507   15  3.814    4  0.413    8  0.298
DALLAS        64 31  9772  9322  0.087 50.131    4  0.497    4  0.459    4  0.356    4 0.5474    5  3.872    2  0.697   13  0.015
DETROIT       69 38  9911  9476  0.051 55.161    5  0.392    5  0.365    3  0.428    5 0.5388   30  3.661   21 -0.213    1  1.070
SEATTLE       58 35  9197  9028  0.066 49.121    6  0.355    6  0.335   10  0.097    6 0.5349   13  3.827    8  0.216   15 -0.022
HOUSTON       54 35  8479  8167  0.064 46.514    7  0.302    7  0.274    6  0.347    7 0.5299   25  3.716   16 -0.049    3  0.743
SACRAMENTO    51 36  9016  8861  0.039 45.195    8  0.252    8  0.222    9  0.100    8 0.5242    2  3.910    3  0.629   23 -0.429
DENVER        50 37  8612  8497  0.048 45.480    9  0.241    9  0.210    7  0.178    9 0.5210   12  3.837    5  0.349   14  0.007
MEMPHIS       45 41  8072  7928  0.049 44.872   10  0.110   12  0.086    8  0.101   11 0.5088   24  3.717   23 -0.293    5  0.495
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     44 38  7934  7815  0.012 41.787   11  0.107   10  0.086   11  0.090   12 0.5087   18  3.784   14  0.007    9  0.173
CHICAGO       49 39  8360  8284 -0.047 43.129   12  0.105   11  0.086   13  0.045   10 0.5094   23  3.747   20 -0.211    7  0.302
INDIANA       50 45  8718  8694 -0.006 48.138   13  0.068   13  0.053   12  0.049   13 0.5064   29  3.683   27 -0.497    4  0.596
WASHINGTON    49 43  9245  9297 -0.028 46.094   14  0.066   14  0.052   20 -0.089   14 0.5059    4  3.886    6  0.319   25 -0.498
BOSTON        48 41  8918  8851 -0.054 43.424   15  0.060   15  0.042   15 -0.038   15 0.5043    8  3.861    7  0.249   21 -0.324
PHILADELPHIA  44 43  8582  8683 -0.027 43.802   16  0.013   16 -0.009   19 -0.082   16 0.4993    9  3.850   12  0.150   20 -0.314
CLEVELAND     42 40  7914  7849 -0.056 39.890   17  0.001   17 -0.026   17 -0.057   17 0.4968   19  3.780   19 -0.158   12  0.043
NEW JERSEY    42 44  7883  8057 -0.038 43.143   18 -0.033   18 -0.056   16 -0.056   18 0.4947   27  3.694   28 -0.552    6  0.440
L.A. CLIPPERS 37 45  7849  7912 -0.003 41.876   19 -0.091   19 -0.114   18 -0.070   19 0.4874   22  3.763   22 -0.251   11  0.110
L.A. LAKERS   34 48  8095  8338  0.009 42.748   20 -0.163   20 -0.177   23 -0.220   20 0.4812    7  3.866   13  0.088   27 -0.528
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORLANDO       36 46  8160  8344 -0.058 40.574   21 -0.171   21 -0.185   24 -0.237   21 0.4807    3  3.889   10  0.183   30 -0.658
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8094  8271 -0.005 42.186   22 -0.173   22 -0.187   14 -0.014   22 0.4796   10  3.849    9  0.214   18 -0.243
TORONTO       33 49  8178  8311 -0.046 40.782   23 -0.237   23 -0.260   21 -0.162   23 0.4730    6  3.872   11  0.175   26 -0.499
NEW YORK      33 49  7977  8177 -0.063 40.482   24 -0.252   24 -0.274   22 -0.190   24 0.4715   14  3.825   18 -0.077   19 -0.302
MILWAUKEE     30 52  7973  8218 -0.048 41.026   25 -0.321   25 -0.345   25 -0.249   25 0.4642   11  3.843   17 -0.054   24 -0.445
PORTLAND      27 55  7621  7949 -0.006 42.509   26 -0.365   26 -0.387   26 -0.276   26 0.4594   20  3.765   25 -0.450   16 -0.102
UTAH          26 56  7625  7975 -0.011 42.477   27 -0.396   27 -0.417   27 -0.305   27 0.4562   21  3.764   26 -0.483   17 -0.128
NEW ORLEANS   18 64  7252  7832 -0.012 43.111   28 -0.633   28 -0.660   29 -0.411   28 0.4337   28  3.684   30 -0.951   10  0.130
CHARLOTTE     18 64  7729  8220 -0.078 40.803   29 -0.681   29 -0.712   28 -0.380   29 0.4275   17  3.800   24 -0.386   22 -0.373
ATLANTA       13 69  7605  8401 -0.077 41.437   30 -0.836   30 -0.869   30 -0.634   30 0.4139   16  3.802   29 -0.631   29 -0.638

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHOENIX       71 26 10734 10087  0.095 51.032    1  0.635    1  0.613    1  0.446    1 0.5610    1  4.012    1  1.495   28 -0.602
SACRAMENTO    51 36  9016  8861  0.039 45.195    8  0.252    8  0.222    9  0.100    8 0.5242    2  3.910    3  0.629   23 -0.429
L.A. CLIPPERS 37 45  7849  7912 -0.003 41.876   19 -0.091   19 -0.114   18 -0.070   19 0.4874   22  3.763   22 -0.251   11  0.110
L.A. LAKERS   34 48  8095  8338  0.009 42.748   20 -0.163   20 -0.177   23 -0.220   20 0.4812    7  3.866   13  0.088   27 -0.528
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8094  8271 -0.005 42.186   22 -0.173   22 -0.187   14 -0.014   22 0.4796   10  3.849    9  0.214   18 -0.243

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       58 35  9197  9028  0.066 49.121    6  0.355    6  0.335   10  0.097    6 0.5349   13  3.827    8  0.216   15 -0.022
DENVER        50 37  8612  8497  0.048 45.480    9  0.241    9  0.210    7  0.178    9 0.5210   12  3.837    5  0.349   14  0.007
MINNESOTA     44 38  7934  7815  0.012 41.787   11  0.107   10  0.086   11  0.090   12 0.5087   18  3.784   14  0.007    9  0.173
PORTLAND      27 55  7621  7949 -0.006 42.509   26 -0.365   26 -0.387   26 -0.276   26 0.4594   20  3.765   25 -0.450   16 -0.102
UTAH          26 56  7625  7975 -0.011 42.477   27 -0.396   27 -0.417   27 -0.305   27 0.4562   21  3.764   26 -0.483   17 -0.128

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   75 30 10117  9377  0.107 55.579    2  0.616    2  0.588    2  0.444    2 0.5599   26  3.704   15 -0.008    2  0.896
DALLAS        64 31  9772  9322  0.087 50.131    4  0.497    4  0.459    4  0.356    4 0.5474    5  3.872    2  0.697   13  0.015
HOUSTON       54 35  8479  8167  0.064 46.514    7  0.302    7  0.274    6  0.347    7 0.5299   25  3.716   16 -0.049    3  0.743
MEMPHIS       45 41  8072  7928  0.049 44.872   10  0.110   12  0.086    8  0.101   11 0.5088   24  3.717   23 -0.293    5  0.495
NEW ORLEANS   18 64  7252  7832 -0.012 43.111   28 -0.633   28 -0.660   29 -0.411   28 0.4337   28  3.684   30 -0.951   10  0.130

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT       69 38  9911  9476  0.051 55.161    5  0.392    5  0.365    3  0.428    5 0.5388   30  3.661   21 -0.213    1  1.070
CHICAGO       49 39  8360  8284 -0.047 43.129   12  0.105   11  0.086   13  0.045   10 0.5094   23  3.747   20 -0.211    7  0.302
INDIANA       50 45  8718  8694 -0.006 48.138   13  0.068   13  0.053   12  0.049   13 0.5064   29  3.683   27 -0.497    4  0.596
CLEVELAND     42 40  7914  7849 -0.056 39.890   17  0.001   17 -0.026   17 -0.057   17 0.4968   19  3.780   19 -0.158   12  0.043
MILWAUKEE     30 52  7973  8218 -0.048 41.026   25 -0.321   25 -0.345   25 -0.249   25 0.4642   11  3.843   17 -0.054   24 -0.445

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         70 27  9797  9198 -0.013 47.383    3  0.533    3  0.500    5  0.356    3 0.5507   15  3.814    4  0.413    8  0.298
WASHINGTON    49 43  9245  9297 -0.028 46.094   14  0.066   14  0.052   20 -0.089   14 0.5059    4  3.886    6  0.319   25 -0.498
ORLANDO       36 46  8160  8344 -0.058 40.574   21 -0.171   21 -0.185   24 -0.237   21 0.4807    3  3.889   10  0.183   30 -0.658
CHARLOTTE     18 64  7729  8220 -0.078 40.803   29 -0.681   29 -0.712   28 -0.380   29 0.4275   17  3.800   24 -0.386   22 -0.373
ATLANTA       13 69  7605  8401 -0.077 41.437   30 -0.836   30 -0.869   30 -0.634   30 0.4139   16  3.802   29 -0.631   29 -0.638

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        48 41  8918  8851 -0.054 43.424   15  0.060   15  0.042   15 -0.038   15 0.5043    8  3.861    7  0.249   21 -0.324
PHILADELPHIA  44 43  8582  8683 -0.027 43.802   16  0.013   16 -0.009   19 -0.082   16 0.4993    9  3.850   12  0.150   20 -0.314
NEW JERSEY    42 44  7883  8057 -0.038 43.143   18 -0.033   18 -0.056   16 -0.056   18 0.4947   27  3.694   28 -0.552    6  0.440
TORONTO       33 49  8178  8311 -0.046 40.782   23 -0.237   23 -0.260   21 -0.162   23 0.4730    6  3.872   11  0.175   26 -0.499
NEW YORK      33 49  7977  8177 -0.063 40.482   24 -0.252   24 -0.274   22 -0.190   24 0.4715   14  3.825   18 -0.077   19 -0.302

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 256 201 0.560    1  0.222
PACIFIC DIVISION   227 203 0.528    2  0.057
CENTRAL DIVISION   240 214 0.529    3  0.030
NORTHWEST DIVISION 205 221 0.481    4 -0.035
ATLANTIC DIVISION  200 226 0.469    5 -0.150
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 186 249 0.428    6 -0.246

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.271 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:45:15 2020
games through: Thu Jun 23 2005

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