Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   70 25  9177  8589  0.063 48.970    1  2.041    1  0.580    2  0.387    1 0.5612  3.725  0.042  0.732  0.000
DETROIT       74 26  9591  8987  0.015 49.997    2  1.993    2  0.555    4  0.313    3 0.5574  3.713 -0.088  0.715  0.000
DALLAS        74 31 10424  9832  0.114 56.138    3  1.988    3  0.553    1  0.450    2 0.5586  3.783  0.373  0.527  0.000
MIAMI         68 37 10405 10001  0.055 54.527    4  1.690    4  0.373    3  0.319    4 0.5391  3.819  0.409  0.229  0.000
PHOENIX       64 38 11030 10551  0.065 53.169    5  1.593    5  0.326    5  0.287    5 0.5359  3.969  1.121 -0.547  0.000
CLEVELAND     57 38  9177  9035  0.037 49.371    6  1.451    6  0.240   12  0.070    6 0.5259  3.773 -0.056  0.196  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 54 40  9238  9064  0.036 48.657    7  1.369    7  0.189    7  0.172    7 0.5208  3.793  0.142  0.202  0.000
NEW JERSEY    54 39  8727  8625 -0.000 47.127    8  1.327    8  0.168   11  0.081    9 0.5172  3.729 -0.248  0.409  0.000
MEMPHIS       49 37  7895  7648  0.035 44.168    9  1.325    9  0.166    6  0.178    8 0.5197  3.662 -0.449  0.806  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   48 41  8858  8700  0.033 45.990   10  1.190   10  0.102    8  0.123   10 0.5122  3.821  0.222  0.024  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SACRAMENTO    46 42  8690  8621  0.030 45.629   11  1.113   11  0.065   10  0.102   11 0.5091  3.834  0.266 -0.062  0.000
DENVER        45 42  8664  8683  0.004 44.565   12  1.061   12  0.038   16 -0.076   12 0.5056  3.855  0.190 -0.343  0.000
WASHINGTON    44 44  8946  8793 -0.020 43.827   13  0.975   13 -0.021    9  0.122   14 0.4969  3.872  0.471 -0.227  0.000
UTAH          41 41  7573  7789 -0.029 41.556   14  0.960   14 -0.022   22 -0.154   13 0.4989  3.728 -0.487  0.179  0.000
CHICAGO       43 45  8610  8576 -0.004 44.692   15  0.953   15 -0.032   13  0.053   15 0.4958  3.810  0.101  0.004  0.000
INDIANA       43 45  8235  8102 -0.023 43.760   16  0.917   16 -0.056   14  0.016   16 0.4936  3.723 -0.338  0.370  0.000
MILWAUKEE     41 46  8508  8641 -0.002 44.708   17  0.881   17 -0.068   17 -0.085   17 0.4933  3.838  0.096 -0.266  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   38 44  7611  7842 -0.019 41.952   18  0.835   18 -0.089   26 -0.237   18 0.4915  3.748 -0.479  0.006  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  38 44  8147  8307 -0.048 40.820   19  0.787   19 -0.115   23 -0.164   19 0.4859  3.869  0.170 -0.498  0.000
ORLANDO       36 46  7784  7872 -0.044 40.758   20  0.694   20 -0.167   15 -0.022   21 0.4803  3.757 -0.223  0.179  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE       35 47  8411  8659 -0.034 41.529   21  0.660   21 -0.182   21 -0.123   20 0.4813  3.948  0.603 -0.849  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8076  8187 -0.011 41.802   22  0.656   22 -0.190   18 -0.098   23 0.4797  3.850  0.144 -0.340  0.000
HOUSTON       34 48  7387  7517 -0.011 41.898   23  0.651   23 -0.192   20 -0.120   22 0.4798  3.678 -0.680  0.440  0.000
MINNESOTA     33 49  7522  7676 -0.027 41.484   24  0.578   24 -0.237   25 -0.193   24 0.4757  3.712 -0.600  0.215  0.000
BOSTON        33 49  8033  8159 -0.037 41.074   25  0.564   25 -0.246   19 -0.099   25 0.4724  3.837  0.080 -0.279  0.000
TORONTO       27 55  8287  8532 -0.045 41.102   26  0.278   26 -0.412   24 -0.191   26 0.4545  3.899  0.290 -0.671  0.000
ATLANTA       26 56  7972  8362 -0.050 41.396   27  0.225   27 -0.434   28 -0.259   28 0.4517  3.848 -0.030 -0.488  0.000
CHARLOTTE     26 56  7943  8271 -0.041 41.502   28  0.222   28 -0.440   27 -0.238   27 0.4523  3.831 -0.089 -0.386  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59  7842  8367 -0.057 41.445   29  0.092   29 -0.515   29 -0.408   29 0.4426  3.830 -0.262 -0.554  0.000
PORTLAND      21 61  7285  8060 -0.046 42.498   30  0.000   30 -0.566   30 -0.595   30 0.4416  3.737 -0.886 -0.304  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX       64 38 11030 10551  0.065 53.169    5  1.593    5  0.326    5  0.287    5 0.5359  3.969  1.121 -0.547  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 54 40  9238  9064  0.036 48.657    7  1.369    7  0.189    7  0.172    7 0.5208  3.793  0.142  0.202  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   48 41  8858  8700  0.033 45.990   10  1.190   10  0.102    8  0.123   10 0.5122  3.821  0.222  0.024  0.000
SACRAMENTO    46 42  8690  8621  0.030 45.629   11  1.113   11  0.065   10  0.102   11 0.5091  3.834  0.266 -0.062  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8076  8187 -0.011 41.802   22  0.656   22 -0.190   18 -0.098   23 0.4797  3.850  0.144 -0.340  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        45 42  8664  8683  0.004 44.565   12  1.061   12  0.038   16 -0.076   12 0.5056  3.855  0.190 -0.343  0.000
UTAH          41 41  7573  7789 -0.029 41.556   14  0.960   14 -0.022   22 -0.154   13 0.4989  3.728 -0.487  0.179  0.000
SEATTLE       35 47  8411  8659 -0.034 41.529   21  0.660   21 -0.182   21 -0.123   20 0.4813  3.948  0.603 -0.849  0.000
MINNESOTA     33 49  7522  7676 -0.027 41.484   24  0.578   24 -0.237   25 -0.193   24 0.4757  3.712 -0.600  0.215  0.000
PORTLAND      21 61  7285  8060 -0.046 42.498   30  0.000   30 -0.566   30 -0.595   30 0.4416  3.737 -0.886 -0.304  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   70 25  9177  8589  0.063 48.970    1  2.041    1  0.580    2  0.387    1 0.5612  3.725  0.042  0.732  0.000
DALLAS        74 31 10424  9832  0.114 56.138    3  1.988    3  0.553    1  0.450    2 0.5586  3.783  0.373  0.527  0.000
MEMPHIS       49 37  7895  7648  0.035 44.168    9  1.325    9  0.166    6  0.178    8 0.5197  3.662 -0.449  0.806  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   38 44  7611  7842 -0.019 41.952   18  0.835   18 -0.089   26 -0.237   18 0.4915  3.748 -0.479  0.006  0.000
HOUSTON       34 48  7387  7517 -0.011 41.898   23  0.651   23 -0.192   20 -0.120   22 0.4798  3.678 -0.680  0.440  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       74 26  9591  8987  0.015 49.997    2  1.993    2  0.555    4  0.313    3 0.5574  3.713 -0.088  0.715  0.000
CLEVELAND     57 38  9177  9035  0.037 49.371    6  1.451    6  0.240   12  0.070    6 0.5259  3.773 -0.056  0.196  0.000
CHICAGO       43 45  8610  8576 -0.004 44.692   15  0.953   15 -0.032   13  0.053   15 0.4958  3.810  0.101  0.004  0.000
INDIANA       43 45  8235  8102 -0.023 43.760   16  0.917   16 -0.056   14  0.016   16 0.4936  3.723 -0.338  0.370  0.000
MILWAUKEE     41 46  8508  8641 -0.002 44.708   17  0.881   17 -0.068   17 -0.085   17 0.4933  3.838  0.096 -0.266  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         68 37 10405 10001  0.055 54.527    4  1.690    4  0.373    3  0.319    4 0.5391  3.819  0.409  0.229  0.000
WASHINGTON    44 44  8946  8793 -0.020 43.827   13  0.975   13 -0.021    9  0.122   14 0.4969  3.872  0.471 -0.227  0.000
ORLANDO       36 46  7784  7872 -0.044 40.758   20  0.694   20 -0.167   15 -0.022   21 0.4803  3.757 -0.223  0.179  0.000
ATLANTA       26 56  7972  8362 -0.050 41.396   27  0.225   27 -0.434   28 -0.259   28 0.4517  3.848 -0.030 -0.488  0.000
CHARLOTTE     26 56  7943  8271 -0.041 41.502   28  0.222   28 -0.440   27 -0.238   27 0.4523  3.831 -0.089 -0.386  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY    54 39  8727  8625 -0.000 47.127    8  1.327    8  0.168   11  0.081    9 0.5172  3.729 -0.248  0.409  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  38 44  8147  8307 -0.048 40.820   19  0.787   19 -0.115   23 -0.164   19 0.4859  3.869  0.170 -0.498  0.000
BOSTON        33 49  8033  8159 -0.037 41.074   25  0.564   25 -0.246   19 -0.099   25 0.4724  3.837  0.080 -0.279  0.000
TORONTO       27 55  8287  8532 -0.045 41.102   26  0.278   26 -0.412   24 -0.191   26 0.4545  3.899  0.290 -0.671  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59  7842  8367 -0.057 41.445   29  0.092   29 -0.515   29 -0.408   29 0.4426  3.830 -0.262 -0.554  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 265 185 0.589    1  0.196
PACIFIC DIVISION   246 209 0.541    2  0.149
CENTRAL DIVISION   258 200 0.563    3  0.127
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 200 239 0.456    4 -0.089
ATLANTIC DIVISION  175 246 0.416    5 -0.216
NORTHWEST DIVISION 175 240 0.422    6 -0.294

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.292 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:17:12 2007
games through: Tue Jun 20 2006

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