Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        69 19  8792  8240  0.035 45.419    1  0.705    1  0.677    3  0.321    1 0.5696   20  3.775    9  0.135    5  0.507
SAN ANTONIO   74 28  9992  9222  0.091 54.531    2  0.595    2  0.568    1  0.529    2 0.5607   29  3.717   12  0.078    1  0.980
PHOENIX       67 26 10182  9528  0.072 48.946    3  0.566    3  0.541    2  0.456    3 0.5573    2  3.959    1  1.170   21 -0.259
DETROIT       63 35  9334  8946  0.015 50.458    4  0.318    4  0.313    4  0.296    4 0.5330   27  3.720   16 -0.143    2  0.736
UTAH          60 39  9986  9736  0.082 53.675    5  0.301    5  0.296    7  0.219    6 0.5319   10  3.839    5  0.336   12  0.101
HOUSTON       55 34  8564  8188  0.046 46.716    6  0.298    6  0.282    8  0.219    5 0.5320   28  3.718   21 -0.232    4  0.669
CLEVELAND     62 40  9710  9353  0.009 52.455    7  0.262    7  0.239    5  0.278    7 0.5263   30  3.716   17 -0.181    3  0.736
CHICAGO       55 37  9024  8602 -0.008 46.460    8  0.226    8  0.197    6  0.275    8 0.5221   18  3.779   10  0.106    6  0.444
DENVER        46 41  9080  8977  0.036 46.057    9  0.092    9  0.083   10  0.129    9 0.5101    4  3.927    3  0.680   25 -0.422
TORONTO       49 39  8702  8653 -0.049 43.999   10  0.087   10  0.079   14 -0.000   10 0.5089   11  3.833   11  0.090   15 -0.091
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN STATE  47 46  9910  9919  0.058 50.272   11  0.064   11  0.057    9  0.139   11 0.5082    1  3.977    2  0.946   27 -0.667
L.A. LAKERS   43 44  8964  9022  0.038 46.573   12  0.028   12  0.017   16 -0.061   12 0.5026    8  3.887    6  0.291   24 -0.413
MIAMI         44 42  8114  8233 -0.036 43.853   13  0.010   13 -0.004   17 -0.098   13 0.4995   25  3.751   27 -0.395    9  0.199
L.A. CLIPPERS 40 42  7843  7881  0.009 42.978   14 -0.002   14 -0.020   11  0.022   15 0.4984   22  3.766   20 -0.205    8  0.249
NEW JERSEY    47 47  9083  9124 -0.022 48.192   15 -0.003   15 -0.024   13  0.002   14 0.4985   16  3.792   15 -0.107   11  0.110
NEW ORLEANS   39 43  7833  7962 -0.001 42.930   16 -0.032   16 -0.052   15 -0.052   16 0.4948   23  3.762   22 -0.299   10  0.195
WASHINGTON    41 45  8922  8999 -0.036 43.786   17 -0.057   17 -0.079   19 -0.148   17 0.4915    3  3.941    4  0.473   30 -0.770
ORLANDO       40 46  8123  8095 -0.036 43.437   18 -0.085   18 -0.110   12  0.013   18 0.4883   26  3.744   25 -0.318    7  0.345
INDIANA       35 47  7840  8040 -0.052 41.517   19 -0.187   19 -0.200   23 -0.214   20 0.4781   15  3.795   23 -0.306   17 -0.122
PHILADELPHIA  35 47  7785  8033 -0.060 41.375   20 -0.190   20 -0.201   21 -0.191   21 0.4779   19  3.777   26 -0.367   14 -0.015
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SACRAMENTO    33 49  8303  8451  0.005 43.114   21 -0.192   21 -0.206   18 -0.130   19 0.4783    7  3.888    7  0.225   26 -0.485
MINNESOTA     32 50  7877  8178 -0.002 43.283   22 -0.221   22 -0.233   28 -0.302   22 0.4750   17  3.782   28 -0.456   18 -0.148
PORTLAND      32 50  7717  8069 -0.009 43.276   23 -0.227   23 -0.239   25 -0.251   23 0.4743   24  3.753   29 -0.540   13  0.038
NEW YORK      33 49  7994  8228 -0.057 41.419   24 -0.240   25 -0.256   24 -0.233   25 0.4721   12  3.822   19 -0.198   22 -0.268
CHARLOTTE     33 49  7945  8252 -0.066 41.381   25 -0.242   24 -0.255   22 -0.202   26 0.4716   13  3.818   18 -0.184   20 -0.221
SEATTLE       31 51  8130  8367 -0.004 43.086   26 -0.251   26 -0.269   20 -0.184   24 0.4721    9  3.854   14  0.007   23 -0.374
ATLANTA       30 52  7680  8070 -0.064 41.684   27 -0.310   27 -0.328   29 -0.341   27 0.4634   21  3.766   30 -0.566   16 -0.115
MILWAUKEE     28 54  8172  8531 -0.055 41.813   28 -0.361   28 -0.379   30 -0.347   28 0.4578    6  3.888   13  0.008   28 -0.702
BOSTON        24 58  7857  8137 -0.068 41.241   29 -0.473   29 -0.502   26 -0.252   30 0.4450   14  3.801   24 -0.317   19 -0.188
MEMPHIS       22 60  8331  8753  0.002 43.776   30 -0.479   30 -0.508   27 -0.274   29 0.4470    5  3.913    8  0.207   29 -0.755
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHOENIX       67 26 10182  9528  0.072 48.946    3  0.566    3  0.541    2  0.456    3 0.5573    2  3.959    1  1.170   21 -0.259
GOLDEN STATE  47 46  9910  9919  0.058 50.272   11  0.064   11  0.057    9  0.139   11 0.5082    1  3.977    2  0.946   27 -0.667
L.A. LAKERS   43 44  8964  9022  0.038 46.573   12  0.028   12  0.017   16 -0.061   12 0.5026    8  3.887    6  0.291   24 -0.413
L.A. CLIPPERS 40 42  7843  7881  0.009 42.978   14 -0.002   14 -0.020   11  0.022   15 0.4984   22  3.766   20 -0.205    8  0.249
SACRAMENTO    33 49  8303  8451  0.005 43.114   21 -0.192   21 -0.206   18 -0.130   19 0.4783    7  3.888    7  0.225   26 -0.485

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UTAH          60 39  9986  9736  0.082 53.675    5  0.301    5  0.296    7  0.219    6 0.5319   10  3.839    5  0.336   12  0.101
DENVER        46 41  9080  8977  0.036 46.057    9  0.092    9  0.083   10  0.129    9 0.5101    4  3.927    3  0.680   25 -0.422
MINNESOTA     32 50  7877  8178 -0.002 43.283   22 -0.221   22 -0.233   28 -0.302   22 0.4750   17  3.782   28 -0.456   18 -0.148
PORTLAND      32 50  7717  8069 -0.009 43.276   23 -0.227   23 -0.239   25 -0.251   23 0.4743   24  3.753   29 -0.540   13  0.038
SEATTLE       31 51  8130  8367 -0.004 43.086   26 -0.251   26 -0.269   20 -0.184   24 0.4721    9  3.854   14  0.007   23 -0.374

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        69 19  8792  8240  0.035 45.419    1  0.705    1  0.677    3  0.321    1 0.5696   20  3.775    9  0.135    5  0.507
SAN ANTONIO   74 28  9992  9222  0.091 54.531    2  0.595    2  0.568    1  0.529    2 0.5607   29  3.717   12  0.078    1  0.980
HOUSTON       55 34  8564  8188  0.046 46.716    6  0.298    6  0.282    8  0.219    5 0.5320   28  3.718   21 -0.232    4  0.669
NEW ORLEANS   39 43  7833  7962 -0.001 42.930   16 -0.032   16 -0.052   15 -0.052   16 0.4948   23  3.762   22 -0.299   10  0.195
MEMPHIS       22 60  8331  8753  0.002 43.776   30 -0.479   30 -0.508   27 -0.274   29 0.4470    5  3.913    8  0.207   29 -0.755

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT       63 35  9334  8946  0.015 50.458    4  0.318    4  0.313    4  0.296    4 0.5330   27  3.720   16 -0.143    2  0.736
CLEVELAND     62 40  9710  9353  0.009 52.455    7  0.262    7  0.239    5  0.278    7 0.5263   30  3.716   17 -0.181    3  0.736
CHICAGO       55 37  9024  8602 -0.008 46.460    8  0.226    8  0.197    6  0.275    8 0.5221   18  3.779   10  0.106    6  0.444
INDIANA       35 47  7840  8040 -0.052 41.517   19 -0.187   19 -0.200   23 -0.214   20 0.4781   15  3.795   23 -0.306   17 -0.122
MILWAUKEE     28 54  8172  8531 -0.055 41.813   28 -0.361   28 -0.379   30 -0.347   28 0.4578    6  3.888   13  0.008   28 -0.702

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         44 42  8114  8233 -0.036 43.853   13  0.010   13 -0.004   17 -0.098   13 0.4995   25  3.751   27 -0.395    9  0.199
WASHINGTON    41 45  8922  8999 -0.036 43.786   17 -0.057   17 -0.079   19 -0.148   17 0.4915    3  3.941    4  0.473   30 -0.770
ORLANDO       40 46  8123  8095 -0.036 43.437   18 -0.085   18 -0.110   12  0.013   18 0.4883   26  3.744   25 -0.318    7  0.345
CHARLOTTE     33 49  7945  8252 -0.066 41.381   25 -0.242   24 -0.255   22 -0.202   26 0.4716   13  3.818   18 -0.184   20 -0.221
ATLANTA       30 52  7680  8070 -0.064 41.684   27 -0.310   27 -0.328   29 -0.341   27 0.4634   21  3.766   30 -0.566   16 -0.115

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TORONTO       49 39  8702  8653 -0.049 43.999   10  0.087   10  0.079   14 -0.000   10 0.5089   11  3.833   11  0.090   15 -0.091
NEW JERSEY    47 47  9083  9124 -0.022 48.192   15 -0.003   15 -0.024   13  0.002   14 0.4985   16  3.792   15 -0.107   11  0.110
PHILADELPHIA  35 47  7785  8033 -0.060 41.375   20 -0.190   20 -0.201   21 -0.191   21 0.4779   19  3.777   26 -0.367   14 -0.015
NEW YORK      33 49  7994  8228 -0.057 41.419   24 -0.240   25 -0.256   24 -0.233   25 0.4721   12  3.822   19 -0.198   22 -0.268
BOSTON        24 58  7857  8137 -0.068 41.241   29 -0.473   29 -0.502   26 -0.252   30 0.4450   14  3.801   24 -0.317   19 -0.188

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 259 184 0.585    1  0.221
PACIFIC DIVISION   230 207 0.526    2  0.095
CENTRAL DIVISION   243 213 0.533    3  0.072
NORTHWEST DIVISION 201 231 0.465    4 -0.089
ATLANTIC DIVISION  188 240 0.439    5 -0.195
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 188 234 0.445    6 -0.212

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.259 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:06 2020
games through: Thu Jun 14 2007

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