Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        82 26 10689  9712  0.062 53.569    1  0.750    1  0.704    1  0.640    1 0.5627   26  3.738   10  0.221    1  1.059
L.A. LAKERS   71 32 11055 10414  0.154 55.476    2  0.607    2  0.583    2  0.530    2 0.5548    5  3.918    4  0.974   13  0.087
DETROIT       69 30  9546  8901  0.067 49.976    3  0.554    3  0.527    4  0.458    4 0.5467   28  3.710   13 -0.085    3  1.001
SAN ANTONIO   65 34  9419  9041  0.129 53.265    4  0.531    4  0.505    7  0.356    3 0.5467   30  3.679   22 -0.326    2  1.038
NEW ORLEANS   63 31  9429  8952  0.088 48.874    5  0.519    5  0.486    5  0.422    5 0.5456   21  3.799    8  0.288    5  0.556
UTAH          60 34  9897  9336  0.105 49.076    6  0.454    7  0.413    3  0.475    6 0.5389    8  3.887    5  0.767   10  0.184
HOUSTON       57 31  8459  8090  0.073 45.421    7  0.447    6  0.422    8  0.355    7 0.5384   29  3.706   16 -0.209    4  0.918
PHOENIX       56 31  9528  9124  0.059 44.524    8  0.414    8  0.390    9  0.331    8 0.5375    3  3.976    2  1.073   22 -0.412
ORLANDO       57 35  9538  9074  0.024 45.701    9  0.305    9  0.283    6  0.378   10 0.5257    9  3.876    6  0.616   12  0.140
DALLAS        52 35  8704  8376  0.063 44.773   10  0.304   10  0.282   10  0.265    9 0.5266   20  3.803   11  0.150    7  0.380
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        50 36  9480  9229  0.038 43.859   11  0.246   11  0.220   11  0.202   11 0.5210    2  3.992    3  1.025   25 -0.620
GOLDEN STATE  48 34  9105  8924  0.012 41.275   12  0.229   12  0.206   13  0.114   12 0.5200    1  4.023    1  1.099   30 -0.870
CLEVELAND     52 43  9072  9073  0.017 48.769   13  0.155   13  0.134   14  0.098   13 0.5126   24  3.754   18 -0.245    6  0.440
PORTLAND      41 41  7820  7900  0.001 42.000   14  0.023   14  0.004   17 -0.103   14 0.5007   27  3.730   28 -0.558    8  0.351
WASHINGTON    45 43  8657  8704 -0.046 43.380   15  0.011   15 -0.010   16 -0.098   15 0.4988   18  3.809   15 -0.184   14 -0.012
TORONTO       42 45  8712  8497  0.001 43.238   16 -0.027   17 -0.062   12  0.116   17 0.4928   16  3.816   12  0.062   11  0.170
PHILADELPHIA  42 46  8438  8446 -0.000 44.638   17 -0.030   16 -0.056   15  0.017   16 0.4935   22  3.771   19 -0.247    9  0.281
SACRAMENTO    38 44  8408  8593 -0.016 41.900   18 -0.073   18 -0.094   18 -0.141   18 0.4913    7  3.902    9  0.225   23 -0.507
ATLANTA       40 49  8667  8897 -0.024 45.368   19 -0.115   19 -0.133   20 -0.189   19 0.4871   15  3.817   17 -0.236   15 -0.142
INDIANA       36 46  8527  8642 -0.077 39.852   20 -0.190   20 -0.212   19 -0.150   20 0.4789    4  3.941    7  0.412   27 -0.713
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY    34 48  7857  8272 -0.086 40.737   21 -0.247   21 -0.263   23 -0.354   21 0.4746   19  3.806   26 -0.455   18 -0.253
CHICAGO       33 49  7981  8234 -0.066 40.688   22 -0.261   22 -0.285   21 -0.256   22 0.4723   13  3.821   20 -0.287   16 -0.226
CHARLOTTE     32 50  7959  8318 -0.081 40.686   23 -0.294   23 -0.315   22 -0.274   23 0.4688   14  3.820   21 -0.305   17 -0.243
MILWAUKEE     26 56  7956  8521 -0.097 40.888   24 -0.500   24 -0.518   27 -0.544   24 0.4514   11  3.848   25 -0.444   26 -0.644
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59  7692  8288 -0.044 42.590   25 -0.550   25 -0.574   28 -0.550   25 0.4478   23  3.767   29 -0.833   19 -0.268
MINNESOTA     22 60  7839  8395 -0.054 42.197   26 -0.577   26 -0.604   24 -0.421   26 0.4439   17  3.813   27 -0.490   21 -0.353
NEW YORK      23 59  7948  8490 -0.087 41.079   27 -0.580   27 -0.608   25 -0.460   28 0.4427   12  3.841   23 -0.391   24 -0.530
MEMPHIS       22 60  8257  8766 -0.053 42.011   28 -0.586   28 -0.616   26 -0.477   27 0.4437    6  3.904   14 -0.102   29 -0.853
SEATTLE       20 62  7999  8717 -0.058 42.616   29 -0.658   29 -0.683   29 -0.593   29 0.4387   10  3.859   24 -0.436   28 -0.750
MIAMI         15 67  7491  8203 -0.106 41.243   30 -0.860   30 -0.905   30 -0.703   30 0.4192   25  3.746   30 -1.083   20 -0.323
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
L.A. LAKERS   71 32 11055 10414  0.154 55.476    2  0.607    2  0.583    2  0.530    2 0.5548    5  3.918    4  0.974   13  0.087
PHOENIX       56 31  9528  9124  0.059 44.524    8  0.414    8  0.390    9  0.331    8 0.5375    3  3.976    2  1.073   22 -0.412
GOLDEN STATE  48 34  9105  8924  0.012 41.275   12  0.229   12  0.206   13  0.114   12 0.5200    1  4.023    1  1.099   30 -0.870
SACRAMENTO    38 44  8408  8593 -0.016 41.900   18 -0.073   18 -0.094   18 -0.141   18 0.4913    7  3.902    9  0.225   23 -0.507
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59  7692  8288 -0.044 42.590   25 -0.550   25 -0.574   28 -0.550   25 0.4478   23  3.767   29 -0.833   19 -0.268

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UTAH          60 34  9897  9336  0.105 49.076    6  0.454    7  0.413    3  0.475    6 0.5389    8  3.887    5  0.767   10  0.184
DENVER        50 36  9480  9229  0.038 43.859   11  0.246   11  0.220   11  0.202   11 0.5210    2  3.992    3  1.025   25 -0.620
PORTLAND      41 41  7820  7900  0.001 42.000   14  0.023   14  0.004   17 -0.103   14 0.5007   27  3.730   28 -0.558    8  0.351
MINNESOTA     22 60  7839  8395 -0.054 42.197   26 -0.577   26 -0.604   24 -0.421   26 0.4439   17  3.813   27 -0.490   21 -0.353
SEATTLE       20 62  7999  8717 -0.058 42.616   29 -0.658   29 -0.683   29 -0.593   29 0.4387   10  3.859   24 -0.436   28 -0.750

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   65 34  9419  9041  0.129 53.265    4  0.531    4  0.505    7  0.356    3 0.5467   30  3.679   22 -0.326    2  1.038
NEW ORLEANS   63 31  9429  8952  0.088 48.874    5  0.519    5  0.486    5  0.422    5 0.5456   21  3.799    8  0.288    5  0.556
HOUSTON       57 31  8459  8090  0.073 45.421    7  0.447    6  0.422    8  0.355    7 0.5384   29  3.706   16 -0.209    4  0.918
DALLAS        52 35  8704  8376  0.063 44.773   10  0.304   10  0.282   10  0.265    9 0.5266   20  3.803   11  0.150    7  0.380
MEMPHIS       22 60  8257  8766 -0.053 42.011   28 -0.586   28 -0.616   26 -0.477   27 0.4437    6  3.904   14 -0.102   29 -0.853

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT       69 30  9546  8901  0.067 49.976    3  0.554    3  0.527    4  0.458    4 0.5467   28  3.710   13 -0.085    3  1.001
CLEVELAND     52 43  9072  9073  0.017 48.769   13  0.155   13  0.134   14  0.098   13 0.5126   24  3.754   18 -0.245    6  0.440
INDIANA       36 46  8527  8642 -0.077 39.852   20 -0.190   20 -0.212   19 -0.150   20 0.4789    4  3.941    7  0.412   27 -0.713
CHICAGO       33 49  7981  8234 -0.066 40.688   22 -0.261   22 -0.285   21 -0.256   22 0.4723   13  3.821   20 -0.287   16 -0.226
MILWAUKEE     26 56  7956  8521 -0.097 40.888   24 -0.500   24 -0.518   27 -0.544   24 0.4514   11  3.848   25 -0.444   26 -0.644

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORLANDO       57 35  9538  9074  0.024 45.701    9  0.305    9  0.283    6  0.378   10 0.5257    9  3.876    6  0.616   12  0.140
WASHINGTON    45 43  8657  8704 -0.046 43.380   15  0.011   15 -0.010   16 -0.098   15 0.4988   18  3.809   15 -0.184   14 -0.012
ATLANTA       40 49  8667  8897 -0.024 45.368   19 -0.115   19 -0.133   20 -0.189   19 0.4871   15  3.817   17 -0.236   15 -0.142
CHARLOTTE     32 50  7959  8318 -0.081 40.686   23 -0.294   23 -0.315   22 -0.274   23 0.4688   14  3.820   21 -0.305   17 -0.243
MIAMI         15 67  7491  8203 -0.106 41.243   30 -0.860   30 -0.905   30 -0.703   30 0.4192   25  3.746   30 -1.083   20 -0.323

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        82 26 10689  9712  0.062 53.569    1  0.750    1  0.704    1  0.640    1 0.5627   26  3.738   10  0.221    1  1.059
TORONTO       42 45  8712  8497  0.001 43.238   16 -0.027   17 -0.062   12  0.116   17 0.4928   16  3.816   12  0.062   11  0.170
PHILADELPHIA  42 46  8438  8446 -0.000 44.638   17 -0.030   16 -0.056   15  0.017   16 0.4935   22  3.771   19 -0.247    9  0.281
NEW JERSEY    34 48  7857  8272 -0.086 40.737   21 -0.247   21 -0.263   23 -0.354   21 0.4746   19  3.806   26 -0.455   18 -0.253
NEW YORK      23 59  7948  8490 -0.087 41.079   27 -0.580   27 -0.608   25 -0.460   28 0.4427   12  3.841   23 -0.391   24 -0.530

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 259 191 0.576    1  0.230
PACIFIC DIVISION   236 200 0.541    2  0.076
ATLANTIC DIVISION  223 224 0.499    3 -0.022
CENTRAL DIVISION   216 224 0.491    4 -0.108
NORTHWEST DIVISION 193 233 0.453    5 -0.113
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 189 244 0.436    6 -0.212

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.306 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:59 2024
games through: Tue Jun 17 2008

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