Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     73 32 10664 10189  0.097 55.321    1  0.580    1  0.552    3  0.376    1 0.5541   21  3.805    8  0.235    6  0.517
ORLANDO       69 27  9778  9043  0.042 47.944    2  0.577    2  0.543    1  0.593    2 0.5531   18  3.812    4  0.485    1  0.701
CLEVELAND     67 26  9475  8926  0.013 45.710    3  0.561    3  0.531    4  0.305    3 0.5518   14  3.824    7  0.259    9  0.351
PHOENIX       64 34 10753 10277  0.057 50.084    4  0.441    4  0.403    2  0.420    4 0.5408    2  3.981    1  1.153   22 -0.314
DALLAS        57 31  8921  8701  0.020 44.341    5  0.376    5  0.351   10  0.169    5 0.5358   15  3.823   11  0.116   12  0.223
BOSTON        65 41 10389 10022  0.087 55.593    6  0.352    6  0.330    6  0.294    6 0.5340   25  3.770   17 -0.011    3  0.598
UTAH          57 35  9618  9202  0.057 47.083    7  0.336    8  0.310    5  0.302    7 0.5331    9  3.871    5  0.483   13  0.121
DENVER        55 33  9385  9057  0.041 44.744    8  0.333    7  0.313    9  0.207    8 0.5321    4  3.917    3  0.613   16 -0.199
ATLANTA       57 36  9322  9015  0.024 46.778    9  0.298    9  0.278   11  0.133    9 0.5274   17  3.812   16  0.029   11  0.237
OKLAHOMA CITY 52 36  8885  8609  0.040 44.803   10  0.263   10  0.236    8  0.222   10 0.5250   16  3.813   10  0.119   10  0.325
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   54 38  9273  8890  0.047 46.801   11  0.262   11  0.231    7  0.281   11 0.5250   23  3.795   12  0.097    8  0.465
PORTLAND      52 36  8603  8394  0.020 44.318   12  0.249   12  0.220   12  0.126   12 0.5228   28  3.737   23 -0.331    4  0.582
MIAMI         48 39  8352  8206 -0.006 43.157   13  0.125   13  0.104   13  0.103   13 0.5103   29  3.735   25 -0.360    5  0.567
MILWAUKEE     49 40  8639  8526 -0.011 44.108   14  0.119   14  0.099   14  0.093   14 0.5100   27  3.753   21 -0.288    7  0.474
HOUSTON       42 40  8395  8425  0.006 41.530   15  0.051   15  0.032   16 -0.066   15 0.5039   10  3.867   13  0.092   17 -0.224
CHARLOTTE     44 42  8153  8074  0.002 43.107   16  0.043   16  0.022   15  0.049   16 0.5014   30  3.716   27 -0.502    2  0.599
MEMPHIS       40 42  8404  8528 -0.022 40.994   17 -0.017   17 -0.041   18 -0.130   17 0.4959    8  3.877   14  0.078   24 -0.338
CHICAGO       42 45  8478  8658 -0.007 44.093   18 -0.017   18 -0.041   17 -0.097   18 0.4958   22  3.799   20 -0.264   14  0.069
TORONTO       40 42  8534  8680 -0.040 40.492   19 -0.035   19 -0.059   20 -0.161   19 0.4931    3  3.938    6  0.350   28 -0.672
NEW ORLEANS   37 45  8220  8422 -0.024 41.164   20 -0.107   20 -0.127   21 -0.179   20 0.4873   12  3.846   18 -0.120   19 -0.237
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANA       32 50  8263  8510 -0.055 40.385   21 -0.270   21 -0.298   19 -0.139   21 0.4692    6  3.893    9  0.148   25 -0.426
LA CLIPPERS   29 53  7849  8370 -0.041 41.529   22 -0.338   22 -0.362   28 -0.466   22 0.4636   20  3.807   28 -0.594   23 -0.338
NEW YORK      29 53  8361  8666 -0.068 40.098   23 -0.367   23 -0.395   24 -0.300   23 0.4592    5  3.906   15  0.054   27 -0.654
PHILADELPHIA  27 55  7994  8322 -0.053 40.623   24 -0.407   24 -0.433   23 -0.298   26 0.4549   13  3.828   22 -0.326   21 -0.270
DETROIT       27 55  7709  8128 -0.055 40.804   25 -0.413   25 -0.437   27 -0.371   25 0.4554   26  3.766   29 -0.694   15 -0.048
GOLDEN STATE  26 56  8922  9217 -0.020 41.467   26 -0.421   26 -0.449   22 -0.210   24 0.4561    1  4.035    2  0.808   30 -1.227
WASHINGTON    26 56  7894  8282 -0.056 40.799   27 -0.431   27 -0.457   26 -0.349   28 0.4520   19  3.809   26 -0.470   18 -0.228
SACRAMENTO    25 57  8200  8558 -0.029 41.472   28 -0.451   28 -0.481   25 -0.318   27 0.4525   11  3.859   19 -0.198   26 -0.438
MINNESOTA     15 67  8051  8838 -0.047 41.942   29 -0.782   29 -0.803   30 -0.577   29 0.4235    7  3.884   24 -0.335   29 -0.819
NEW JERSEY    12 70  7574  8323 -0.071 41.107   30 -0.910   30 -0.937   29 -0.525   30 0.4109   24  3.775   30 -0.805   20 -0.246
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     73 32 10664 10189  0.097 55.321    1  0.580    1  0.552    3  0.376    1 0.5541   21  3.805    8  0.235    6  0.517
PHOENIX       64 34 10753 10277  0.057 50.084    4  0.441    4  0.403    2  0.420    4 0.5408    2  3.981    1  1.153   22 -0.314
LA CLIPPERS   29 53  7849  8370 -0.041 41.529   22 -0.338   22 -0.362   28 -0.466   22 0.4636   20  3.807   28 -0.594   23 -0.338
GOLDEN STATE  26 56  8922  9217 -0.020 41.467   26 -0.421   26 -0.449   22 -0.210   24 0.4561    1  4.035    2  0.808   30 -1.227
SACRAMENTO    25 57  8200  8558 -0.029 41.472   28 -0.451   28 -0.481   25 -0.318   27 0.4525   11  3.859   19 -0.198   26 -0.438

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UTAH          57 35  9618  9202  0.057 47.083    7  0.336    8  0.310    5  0.302    7 0.5331    9  3.871    5  0.483   13  0.121
DENVER        55 33  9385  9057  0.041 44.744    8  0.333    7  0.313    9  0.207    8 0.5321    4  3.917    3  0.613   16 -0.199
OKLAHOMA CITY 52 36  8885  8609  0.040 44.803   10  0.263   10  0.236    8  0.222   10 0.5250   16  3.813   10  0.119   10  0.325
PORTLAND      52 36  8603  8394  0.020 44.318   12  0.249   12  0.220   12  0.126   12 0.5228   28  3.737   23 -0.331    4  0.582
MINNESOTA     15 67  8051  8838 -0.047 41.942   29 -0.782   29 -0.803   30 -0.577   29 0.4235    7  3.884   24 -0.335   29 -0.819

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        57 31  8921  8701  0.020 44.341    5  0.376    5  0.351   10  0.169    5 0.5358   15  3.823   11  0.116   12  0.223
SAN ANTONIO   54 38  9273  8890  0.047 46.801   11  0.262   11  0.231    7  0.281   11 0.5250   23  3.795   12  0.097    8  0.465
HOUSTON       42 40  8395  8425  0.006 41.530   15  0.051   15  0.032   16 -0.066   15 0.5039   10  3.867   13  0.092   17 -0.224
MEMPHIS       40 42  8404  8528 -0.022 40.994   17 -0.017   17 -0.041   18 -0.130   17 0.4959    8  3.877   14  0.078   24 -0.338
NEW ORLEANS   37 45  8220  8422 -0.024 41.164   20 -0.107   20 -0.127   21 -0.179   20 0.4873   12  3.846   18 -0.120   19 -0.237

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND     67 26  9475  8926  0.013 45.710    3  0.561    3  0.531    4  0.305    3 0.5518   14  3.824    7  0.259    9  0.351
MILWAUKEE     49 40  8639  8526 -0.011 44.108   14  0.119   14  0.099   14  0.093   14 0.5100   27  3.753   21 -0.288    7  0.474
CHICAGO       42 45  8478  8658 -0.007 44.093   18 -0.017   18 -0.041   17 -0.097   18 0.4958   22  3.799   20 -0.264   14  0.069
INDIANA       32 50  8263  8510 -0.055 40.385   21 -0.270   21 -0.298   19 -0.139   21 0.4692    6  3.893    9  0.148   25 -0.426
DETROIT       27 55  7709  8128 -0.055 40.804   25 -0.413   25 -0.437   27 -0.371   25 0.4554   26  3.766   29 -0.694   15 -0.048

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORLANDO       69 27  9778  9043  0.042 47.944    2  0.577    2  0.543    1  0.593    2 0.5531   18  3.812    4  0.485    1  0.701
ATLANTA       57 36  9322  9015  0.024 46.778    9  0.298    9  0.278   11  0.133    9 0.5274   17  3.812   16  0.029   11  0.237
MIAMI         48 39  8352  8206 -0.006 43.157   13  0.125   13  0.104   13  0.103   13 0.5103   29  3.735   25 -0.360    5  0.567
CHARLOTTE     44 42  8153  8074  0.002 43.107   16  0.043   16  0.022   15  0.049   16 0.5014   30  3.716   27 -0.502    2  0.599
WASHINGTON    26 56  7894  8282 -0.056 40.799   27 -0.431   27 -0.457   26 -0.349   28 0.4520   19  3.809   26 -0.470   18 -0.228

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        65 41 10389 10022  0.087 55.593    6  0.352    6  0.330    6  0.294    6 0.5340   25  3.770   17 -0.011    3  0.598
TORONTO       40 42  8534  8680 -0.040 40.492   19 -0.035   19 -0.059   20 -0.161   19 0.4931    3  3.938    6  0.350   28 -0.672
NEW YORK      29 53  8361  8666 -0.068 40.098   23 -0.367   23 -0.395   24 -0.300   23 0.4592    5  3.906   15  0.054   27 -0.654
PHILADELPHIA  27 55  7994  8322 -0.053 40.623   24 -0.407   24 -0.433   23 -0.298   26 0.4549   13  3.828   22 -0.326   21 -0.270
NEW JERSEY    12 70  7574  8323 -0.071 41.107   30 -0.910   30 -0.937   29 -0.525   30 0.4109   24  3.775   30 -0.805   20 -0.246

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 244 200 0.550    1  0.133
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 207 0.527    2  0.100
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 230 196 0.540    3  0.037
PACIFIC DIVISION   217 232 0.483    4 -0.068
CENTRAL DIVISION   217 216 0.501    5 -0.073
ATLANTIC DIVISION  173 261 0.399    6 -0.260

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.234 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.025 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:03:47 2024
games through: Thu Jun 17 2010

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