Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     73 32 10664 10189  0.098 55.324    1  0.580    1  0.553    3  0.377    1 0.5541   21  3.805    8  0.236    6  0.518
ORLANDO       69 27  9778  9043  0.043 47.943    2  0.577    2  0.544    1  0.594    2 0.5531   18  3.812    4  0.486    1  0.701
CLEVELAND     67 26  9475  8926  0.014 45.710    3  0.561    3  0.532    4  0.306    3 0.5518   14  3.824    7  0.260    9  0.352
PHOENIX       64 34 10753 10277  0.058 50.084    4  0.441    4  0.404    2  0.421    4 0.5408    2  3.981    1  1.154   22 -0.313
DALLAS        57 31  8921  8701  0.021 44.344    5  0.377    5  0.352   10  0.170    5 0.5358   15  3.823   11  0.116   12  0.224
BOSTON        65 41 10389 10022  0.088 55.589    6  0.352    6  0.331    6  0.294    6 0.5340   25  3.770   17 -0.010    3  0.599
UTAH          57 35  9618  9202  0.058 47.082    7  0.336    8  0.311    5  0.303    7 0.5331    9  3.871    5  0.484   13  0.122
DENVER        55 33  9385  9057  0.042 44.747    8  0.333    7  0.314    9  0.208    8 0.5321    4  3.917    3  0.614   16 -0.198
ATLANTA       57 36  9322  9015  0.025 46.778    9  0.298    9  0.278   11  0.133    9 0.5274   17  3.812   16  0.029   11  0.237
OKLAHOMA CITY 52 36  8885  8609  0.040 44.803   10  0.262   10  0.237    8  0.223   10 0.5250   16  3.813   10  0.120   10  0.326
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   54 38  9273  8890  0.047 46.801   11  0.262   11  0.232    7  0.282   11 0.5250   23  3.795   12  0.098    8  0.466
PORTLAND      52 36  8603  8394  0.021 44.321   12  0.249   12  0.221   12  0.127   12 0.5228   28  3.737   23 -0.330    4  0.583
MIAMI         48 39  8352  8206 -0.006 43.156   13  0.125   13  0.105   13  0.104   13 0.5103   29  3.735   25 -0.359    5  0.568
MILWAUKEE     49 40  8639  8526 -0.010 44.106   14  0.119   14  0.100   14  0.094   14 0.5100   27  3.753   21 -0.288    7  0.475
HOUSTON       42 40  8395  8425  0.007 41.532   15  0.051   15  0.033   16 -0.065   15 0.5039   10  3.867   13  0.093   17 -0.223
CHARLOTTE     44 42  8153  8074  0.002 43.105   16  0.043   16  0.022   15  0.049   16 0.5014   30  3.716   27 -0.501    2  0.600
MEMPHIS       40 42  8404  8528 -0.021 40.994   17 -0.017   17 -0.040   18 -0.129   17 0.4959    8  3.877   14  0.079   24 -0.337
CHICAGO       42 45  8478  8658 -0.006 44.090   18 -0.018   18 -0.040   17 -0.096   18 0.4958   22  3.799   20 -0.263   14  0.070
TORONTO       40 42  8534  8680 -0.039 40.491   19 -0.035   19 -0.058   20 -0.161   19 0.4931    3  3.938    6  0.351   28 -0.672
NEW ORLEANS   37 45  8220  8422 -0.023 41.164   20 -0.106   20 -0.126   21 -0.178   20 0.4873   12  3.846   18 -0.120   19 -0.236
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANA       32 50  8263  8510 -0.054 40.384   21 -0.270   21 -0.297   19 -0.138   21 0.4692    6  3.893    9  0.149   25 -0.426
LA CLIPPERS   29 53  7849  8370 -0.040 41.531   22 -0.338   22 -0.362   28 -0.465   22 0.4636   20  3.807   28 -0.593   23 -0.337
NEW YORK      29 53  8361  8666 -0.067 40.097   23 -0.367   23 -0.394   24 -0.299   23 0.4592    5  3.906   15  0.055   27 -0.653
PHILADELPHIA  27 55  7994  8322 -0.052 40.623   24 -0.407   24 -0.432   23 -0.297   26 0.4549   13  3.828   22 -0.325   21 -0.269
DETROIT       27 55  7709  8128 -0.054 40.802   25 -0.413   25 -0.436   27 -0.370   25 0.4554   26  3.766   29 -0.693   15 -0.047
GOLDEN STATE  26 56  8922  9217 -0.019 41.468   26 -0.421   26 -0.448   22 -0.209   24 0.4561    1  4.035    2  0.809   30 -1.226
WASHINGTON    26 56  7894  8282 -0.055 40.798   27 -0.431   27 -0.456   26 -0.348   28 0.4520   19  3.809   26 -0.469   18 -0.227
SACRAMENTO    25 57  8200  8558 -0.028 41.472   28 -0.451   28 -0.480   25 -0.317   27 0.4525   11  3.859   19 -0.197   26 -0.437
MINNESOTA     15 67  8051  8838 -0.046 41.943   29 -0.782   29 -0.802   30 -0.576   29 0.4235    7  3.884   24 -0.334   29 -0.818
NEW JERSEY    12 70  7574  8323 -0.071 41.105   30 -0.909   30 -0.936   29 -0.525   30 0.4109   24  3.775   30 -0.804   20 -0.245
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     73 32 10664 10189  0.098 55.324    1  0.580    1  0.553    3  0.377    1 0.5541   21  3.805    8  0.236    6  0.518
PHOENIX       64 34 10753 10277  0.058 50.084    4  0.441    4  0.404    2  0.421    4 0.5408    2  3.981    1  1.154   22 -0.313
LA CLIPPERS   29 53  7849  8370 -0.040 41.531   22 -0.338   22 -0.362   28 -0.465   22 0.4636   20  3.807   28 -0.593   23 -0.337
GOLDEN STATE  26 56  8922  9217 -0.019 41.468   26 -0.421   26 -0.448   22 -0.209   24 0.4561    1  4.035    2  0.809   30 -1.226
SACRAMENTO    25 57  8200  8558 -0.028 41.472   28 -0.451   28 -0.480   25 -0.317   27 0.4525   11  3.859   19 -0.197   26 -0.437

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UTAH          57 35  9618  9202  0.058 47.082    7  0.336    8  0.311    5  0.303    7 0.5331    9  3.871    5  0.484   13  0.122
DENVER        55 33  9385  9057  0.042 44.747    8  0.333    7  0.314    9  0.208    8 0.5321    4  3.917    3  0.614   16 -0.198
OKLAHOMA CITY 52 36  8885  8609  0.040 44.803   10  0.262   10  0.237    8  0.223   10 0.5250   16  3.813   10  0.120   10  0.326
PORTLAND      52 36  8603  8394  0.021 44.321   12  0.249   12  0.221   12  0.127   12 0.5228   28  3.737   23 -0.330    4  0.583
MINNESOTA     15 67  8051  8838 -0.046 41.943   29 -0.782   29 -0.802   30 -0.576   29 0.4235    7  3.884   24 -0.334   29 -0.818

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        57 31  8921  8701  0.021 44.344    5  0.377    5  0.352   10  0.170    5 0.5358   15  3.823   11  0.116   12  0.224
SAN ANTONIO   54 38  9273  8890  0.047 46.801   11  0.262   11  0.232    7  0.282   11 0.5250   23  3.795   12  0.098    8  0.466
HOUSTON       42 40  8395  8425  0.007 41.532   15  0.051   15  0.033   16 -0.065   15 0.5039   10  3.867   13  0.093   17 -0.223
MEMPHIS       40 42  8404  8528 -0.021 40.994   17 -0.017   17 -0.040   18 -0.129   17 0.4959    8  3.877   14  0.079   24 -0.337
NEW ORLEANS   37 45  8220  8422 -0.023 41.164   20 -0.106   20 -0.126   21 -0.178   20 0.4873   12  3.846   18 -0.120   19 -0.236

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND     67 26  9475  8926  0.014 45.710    3  0.561    3  0.532    4  0.306    3 0.5518   14  3.824    7  0.260    9  0.352
MILWAUKEE     49 40  8639  8526 -0.010 44.106   14  0.119   14  0.100   14  0.094   14 0.5100   27  3.753   21 -0.288    7  0.475
CHICAGO       42 45  8478  8658 -0.006 44.090   18 -0.018   18 -0.040   17 -0.096   18 0.4958   22  3.799   20 -0.263   14  0.070
INDIANA       32 50  8263  8510 -0.054 40.384   21 -0.270   21 -0.297   19 -0.138   21 0.4692    6  3.893    9  0.149   25 -0.426
DETROIT       27 55  7709  8128 -0.054 40.802   25 -0.413   25 -0.436   27 -0.370   25 0.4554   26  3.766   29 -0.693   15 -0.047

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORLANDO       69 27  9778  9043  0.043 47.943    2  0.577    2  0.544    1  0.594    2 0.5531   18  3.812    4  0.486    1  0.701
ATLANTA       57 36  9322  9015  0.025 46.778    9  0.298    9  0.278   11  0.133    9 0.5274   17  3.812   16  0.029   11  0.237
MIAMI         48 39  8352  8206 -0.006 43.156   13  0.125   13  0.105   13  0.104   13 0.5103   29  3.735   25 -0.359    5  0.568
CHARLOTTE     44 42  8153  8074  0.002 43.105   16  0.043   16  0.022   15  0.049   16 0.5014   30  3.716   27 -0.501    2  0.600
WASHINGTON    26 56  7894  8282 -0.055 40.798   27 -0.431   27 -0.456   26 -0.348   28 0.4520   19  3.809   26 -0.469   18 -0.227

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        65 41 10389 10022  0.088 55.589    6  0.352    6  0.331    6  0.294    6 0.5340   25  3.770   17 -0.010    3  0.599
TORONTO       40 42  8534  8680 -0.039 40.491   19 -0.035   19 -0.058   20 -0.161   19 0.4931    3  3.938    6  0.351   28 -0.672
NEW YORK      29 53  8361  8666 -0.067 40.097   23 -0.367   23 -0.394   24 -0.299   23 0.4592    5  3.906   15  0.055   27 -0.653
PHILADELPHIA  27 55  7994  8322 -0.052 40.623   24 -0.407   24 -0.432   23 -0.297   26 0.4549   13  3.828   22 -0.325   21 -0.269
NEW JERSEY    12 70  7574  8323 -0.071 41.105   30 -0.909   30 -0.936   29 -0.525   30 0.4109   24  3.775   30 -0.804   20 -0.245

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 244 200 0.550    1  0.133
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 207 0.527    2  0.101
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 230 196 0.540    3  0.038
PACIFIC DIVISION   217 232 0.483    4 -0.067
CENTRAL DIVISION   217 216 0.501    5 -0.072
ATLANTIC DIVISION  173 261 0.399    6 -0.260

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.234 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.025 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:20 2020
games through: Thu Jun 17 2010

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