Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        73 30 10283  9815  0.100 54.338    1  2.262    1  0.583    1  0.462    1 0.5587  3.800  0.359  0.565  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   63 25  9068  8619  0.051 44.737    2  2.227    2  0.560    8  0.266    2 0.5545  3.846  0.385  0.148  0.000
MIAMI         72 31 10317  9649  0.064 52.116    3  2.159    4  0.518    2  0.456    3 0.5503  3.797  0.335  0.576  0.000
CHICAGO       71 27  9567  8899 -0.006 47.084    4  2.158    3  0.519    3  0.450    4 0.5500  3.728  0.012  0.888  0.000
LA LAKERS     61 31  9253  8765  0.043 46.379    5  1.964    5  0.402    6  0.309    5 0.5422  3.799  0.200  0.419  0.000
BOSTON        61 30  8765  8313  0.016 44.888    6  1.952    7  0.397    9  0.259    7 0.5388  3.713 -0.249  0.767  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 64 35 10338  9995  0.065 51.263    7  1.951    6  0.397    4  0.327    6 0.5400  3.862  0.522  0.131  0.000
DENVER        51 36  9298  8932  0.043 44.158    8  1.681    8  0.227    5  0.310    8 0.5235  3.936  0.869 -0.249  0.000
ORLANDO       54 34  8667  8208 -0.023 42.130    9  1.677    9  0.223    7  0.284    9 0.5230  3.767  0.024  0.545  0.000
PORTLAND      50 38  8425  8331  0.048 45.560   10  1.622   10  0.195   12  0.120   10 0.5218  3.737 -0.278  0.518  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MEMPHIS       53 42  9477  9294  0.070 49.691   11  1.617   11  0.188   10  0.222   11 0.5210  3.792  0.079  0.365  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   48 40  8320  8290  0.049 45.771   12  1.529   12  0.147   15 -0.021   12 0.5157  3.719 -0.501  0.459  0.000
ATLANTA       50 44  8825  8945  0.006 47.957   13  1.404   13  0.090   19 -0.137   13 0.5073  3.752 -0.467  0.194  0.000
HOUSTON       43 39  8685  8506  0.016 41.231   14  1.361   14  0.057   11  0.180   14 0.5063  3.922  0.673 -0.313  0.000
PHOENIX       40 42  8611  8684  0.012 41.836   15  1.233   15 -0.017   16 -0.052   15 0.4988  3.924  0.446 -0.550  0.000
UTAH          39 43  8153  8303  0.001 41.768   16  1.181   16 -0.045   22 -0.185   16 0.4950  3.835 -0.120 -0.249  0.000
NEW YORK      42 44  9097  9067 -0.021 42.591   17  1.179   17 -0.050   14 -0.015   17 0.4941  3.969  0.714 -0.743  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 45  8552  8466 -0.015 43.050   18  1.157   18 -0.066   13  0.052   18 0.4929  3.792 -0.090  0.194  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  36 46  8477  8668 -0.010 41.567   19  0.993   19 -0.148   18 -0.098   19 0.4855  3.920  0.385 -0.581  0.000
INDIANA       38 49  8634  8759 -0.025 43.496   20  0.962   20 -0.165   20 -0.140   20 0.4828  3.856  0.027 -0.306  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MILWAUKEE     35 47  7534  7603 -0.044 40.251   21  0.899   21 -0.204   17 -0.090   21 0.4778  3.681 -0.738  0.558  0.000
CHARLOTTE     34 48  7650  7978 -0.064 40.545   22  0.827   22 -0.240   25 -0.316   22 0.4749  3.752 -0.646  0.014  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   32 50  8089  8346 -0.007 41.865   23  0.813   23 -0.252   21 -0.179   23 0.4740  3.830 -0.140 -0.217  0.000
DETROIT       30 52  7951  8246 -0.069 40.250   24  0.611   24 -0.372   23 -0.248   24 0.4627  3.818 -0.268 -0.228  0.000
SACRAMENTO    24 58  8151  8589 -0.015 42.089   25  0.418   25 -0.483   24 -0.275   25 0.4510  3.869 -0.047 -0.502  0.000
NEW JERSEY    24 58  7722  8234 -0.077 40.586   26  0.308   26 -0.550   27 -0.461   26 0.4452  3.772 -0.697 -0.224  0.000
WASHINGTON    23 59  7977  8584 -0.076 40.947   27  0.251   27 -0.581   29 -0.502   27 0.4432  3.855 -0.343 -0.661  0.000
TORONTO       22 60  8124  8639 -0.076 40.691   28  0.236   28 -0.594   28 -0.465   28 0.4395  3.896 -0.105 -0.825  0.000
CLEVELAND     19 63  7827  8566 -0.083 40.958   29  0.044   29 -0.698   30 -0.555   30 0.4306  3.851 -0.416 -0.693  0.000
MINNESOTA     17 65  8288  8832 -0.015 42.390   30  0.000   30 -0.733   26 -0.426   29 0.4311  3.922  0.065 -0.917  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     61 31  9253  8765  0.043 46.379    5  1.964    5  0.402    6  0.309    5 0.5422  3.799  0.200  0.419  0.000
PHOENIX       40 42  8611  8684  0.012 41.836   15  1.233   15 -0.017   16 -0.052   15 0.4988  3.924  0.446 -0.550  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  36 46  8477  8668 -0.010 41.567   19  0.993   19 -0.148   18 -0.098   19 0.4855  3.920  0.385 -0.581  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   32 50  8089  8346 -0.007 41.865   23  0.813   23 -0.252   21 -0.179   23 0.4740  3.830 -0.140 -0.217  0.000
SACRAMENTO    24 58  8151  8589 -0.015 42.089   25  0.418   25 -0.483   24 -0.275   25 0.4510  3.869 -0.047 -0.502  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OKLAHOMA CITY 64 35 10338  9995  0.065 51.263    7  1.951    6  0.397    4  0.327    6 0.5400  3.862  0.522  0.131  0.000
DENVER        51 36  9298  8932  0.043 44.158    8  1.681    8  0.227    5  0.310    8 0.5235  3.936  0.869 -0.249  0.000
PORTLAND      50 38  8425  8331  0.048 45.560   10  1.622   10  0.195   12  0.120   10 0.5218  3.737 -0.278  0.518  0.000
UTAH          39 43  8153  8303  0.001 41.768   16  1.181   16 -0.045   22 -0.185   16 0.4950  3.835 -0.120 -0.249  0.000
MINNESOTA     17 65  8288  8832 -0.015 42.390   30  0.000   30 -0.733   26 -0.426   29 0.4311  3.922  0.065 -0.917  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        73 30 10283  9815  0.100 54.338    1  2.262    1  0.583    1  0.462    1 0.5587  3.800  0.359  0.565  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   63 25  9068  8619  0.051 44.737    2  2.227    2  0.560    8  0.266    2 0.5545  3.846  0.385  0.148  0.000
MEMPHIS       53 42  9477  9294  0.070 49.691   11  1.617   11  0.188   10  0.222   11 0.5210  3.792  0.079  0.365  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   48 40  8320  8290  0.049 45.771   12  1.529   12  0.147   15 -0.021   12 0.5157  3.719 -0.501  0.459  0.000
HOUSTON       43 39  8685  8506  0.016 41.231   14  1.361   14  0.057   11  0.180   14 0.5063  3.922  0.673 -0.313  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       71 27  9567  8899 -0.006 47.084    4  2.158    3  0.519    3  0.450    4 0.5500  3.728  0.012  0.888  0.000
INDIANA       38 49  8634  8759 -0.025 43.496   20  0.962   20 -0.165   20 -0.140   20 0.4828  3.856  0.027 -0.306  0.000
MILWAUKEE     35 47  7534  7603 -0.044 40.251   21  0.899   21 -0.204   17 -0.090   21 0.4778  3.681 -0.738  0.558  0.000
DETROIT       30 52  7951  8246 -0.069 40.250   24  0.611   24 -0.372   23 -0.248   24 0.4627  3.818 -0.268 -0.228  0.000
CLEVELAND     19 63  7827  8566 -0.083 40.958   29  0.044   29 -0.698   30 -0.555   30 0.4306  3.851 -0.416 -0.693  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         72 31 10317  9649  0.064 52.116    3  2.159    4  0.518    2  0.456    3 0.5503  3.797  0.335  0.576  0.000
ORLANDO       54 34  8667  8208 -0.023 42.130    9  1.677    9  0.223    7  0.284    9 0.5230  3.767  0.024  0.545  0.000
ATLANTA       50 44  8825  8945  0.006 47.957   13  1.404   13  0.090   19 -0.137   13 0.5073  3.752 -0.467  0.194  0.000
CHARLOTTE     34 48  7650  7978 -0.064 40.545   22  0.827   22 -0.240   25 -0.316   22 0.4749  3.752 -0.646  0.014  0.000
WASHINGTON    23 59  7977  8584 -0.076 40.947   27  0.251   27 -0.581   29 -0.502   27 0.4432  3.855 -0.343 -0.661  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        61 30  8765  8313  0.016 44.888    6  1.952    7  0.397    9  0.259    7 0.5388  3.713 -0.249  0.767  0.000
NEW YORK      42 44  9097  9067 -0.021 42.591   17  1.179   17 -0.050   14 -0.015   17 0.4941  3.969  0.714 -0.743  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 45  8552  8466 -0.015 43.050   18  1.157   18 -0.066   13  0.052   18 0.4929  3.792 -0.090  0.194  0.000
NEW JERSEY    24 58  7722  8234 -0.077 40.586   26  0.308   26 -0.550   27 -0.461   26 0.4452  3.772 -0.697 -0.224  0.000
TORONTO       22 60  8124  8639 -0.076 40.691   28  0.236   28 -0.594   28 -0.465   28 0.4395  3.896 -0.105 -0.825  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 280 176 0.614    1  0.270
NORTHWEST DIVISION 221 217 0.505    2  0.033
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 233 216 0.519    3 -0.036
PACIFIC DIVISION   193 227 0.460    4 -0.095
ATLANTIC DIVISION  191 237 0.446    5 -0.130
CENTRAL DIVISION   193 238 0.448    6 -0.175

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.267 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Sep 17 17:54:11 2011
games through: Sun Jun 12 2011

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