Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   60 20 8269 7713  0.085 41.041    1  0.705    1  0.666    1  0.573    1 0.5669    4  3.864    1  0.929    9  0.217
OKLAHOMA CITY 60 26 8827 8343  0.136 45.841    2  0.607    2  0.573    2  0.501    2 0.5594    5  3.861    2  0.841   13  0.160
MIAMI         62 27 8739 8181  0.085 45.488    3  0.568    3  0.532    3  0.492    3 0.5512   17  3.779    4  0.442    4  0.541
CHICAGO       52 20 6865 6335  0.017 34.518    4  0.552    4  0.511    4  0.435    4 0.5479   27  3.719   11  0.110    1  0.760
INDIANA       48 29 7449 7216 -0.002 37.528    5  0.305    6  0.280    6  0.198    7 0.5267   16  3.787    9  0.185   11  0.212
LA LAKERS     46 32 7550 7506  0.083 41.153    6  0.305    5  0.282   13  0.068    5 0.5288   19  3.768   16 -0.031   12  0.168
MEMPHIS       44 29 6909 6771  0.038 37.022    7  0.296    7  0.270   10  0.142    6 0.5278   25  3.734   19 -0.115    5  0.399
BOSTON        50 36 7852 7666  0.069 44.351    8  0.271    8  0.242    5  0.266    9 0.5218   29  3.685   22 -0.213    2  0.746
LA CLIPPERS   44 33 7438 7320  0.062 39.800    9  0.243    9  0.215    9  0.143    8 0.5234   18  3.774   14  0.071   10  0.215
DENVER        41 32 7549 7356  0.034 36.775   10  0.192   11  0.162    7  0.197   10 0.5184    1  3.902    3  0.744   22 -0.349
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       42 30 6868 6669 -0.028 34.528   11  0.190   10  0.162   12  0.119   11 0.5143   22  3.744   18 -0.093    6  0.331
DALLAS        36 34 6695 6658  0.084 36.942   12  0.123   12  0.097   14  0.051   12 0.5116   21  3.750   21 -0.132    8  0.235
PHILADELPHIA  42 37 7294 7030  0.038 39.582   13  0.113   13  0.086    8  0.171   13 0.5077   28  3.704   23 -0.223    3  0.566
ORLANDO       38 33 6634 6636 -0.020 35.026   14  0.082   14  0.069   19 -0.112   15 0.5055   24  3.741   24 -0.335   14  0.111
UTAH          36 34 6922 6945  0.035 35.876   15  0.075   15  0.061   16  0.017   14 0.5074   10  3.815   10  0.139   18 -0.105
HOUSTON       34 32 6474 6459  0.010 33.069   16  0.059   16  0.043   17  0.002   16 0.5043   14  3.806   13  0.079   17 -0.075
NEW YORK      37 34 6872 6731 -0.016 34.492   17  0.026   17  0.007   11  0.130   18 0.5010   15  3.802    8  0.188   15  0.072
PHOENIX       33 33 6492 6508  0.020 33.457   18  0.024   18  0.006   15  0.042   17 0.5021    7  3.847    6  0.319   21 -0.234
MILWAUKEE     31 35 6535 6517 -0.065 31.354   19 -0.108   19 -0.129   18 -0.040   19 0.4852    3  3.872    5  0.358   24 -0.438
PORTLAND      28 38 6415 6456  0.006 33.180   20 -0.147   20 -0.169   20 -0.135   20 0.4822   13  3.809   17 -0.045   20 -0.226
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     26 40 6464 6609 -0.004 33.210   21 -0.219   21 -0.242   22 -0.227   21 0.4754    8  3.844   15  0.031   25 -0.486
GOLDEN STATE  23 43 6453 6678  0.006 33.572   22 -0.313   22 -0.340   23 -0.237   22 0.4655    6  3.858   12  0.092   26 -0.566
DETROIT       25 41 5997 6313 -0.109 31.738   23 -0.339   23 -0.363   27 -0.333   23 0.4627   23  3.742   27 -0.553   19 -0.113
SACRAMENTO    22 44 6518 6893 -0.007 33.740   24 -0.358   24 -0.382   26 -0.316   24 0.4610    2  3.899    7  0.215   29 -0.847
TORONTO       23 43 5986 6204 -0.088 31.761   25 -0.398   25 -0.425   24 -0.244   26 0.4565   26  3.722   28 -0.557   16  0.070
NEW ORLEANS   21 45 5916 6164  0.001 33.712   26 -0.399   26 -0.425   21 -0.208   25 0.4584   30  3.682   29 -0.700    7  0.284
NEW JERSEY    22 44 6144 6539 -0.118 31.752   27 -0.432   27 -0.455   28 -0.472   27 0.4516   11  3.814   25 -0.358   27 -0.586
CLEVELAND     21 45 6140 6615 -0.108 32.157   28 -0.462   28 -0.484   29 -0.597   28 0.4496   12  3.810   26 -0.498   28 -0.697
WASHINGTON    20 46 6180 6497 -0.098 31.826   29 -0.491   29 -0.526   25 -0.263   29 0.4449    9  3.817   20 -0.132   23 -0.395
CHARLOTTE      7 59 5739 6657 -0.152 32.067   30 -1.071   30 -1.113   30 -1.026   30 0.3968   20  3.762   30 -1.152   30 -0.900
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     46 32 7550 7506  0.083 41.153    6  0.305    5  0.282   13  0.068    5 0.5288   19  3.768   16 -0.031   12  0.168
LA CLIPPERS   44 33 7438 7320  0.062 39.800    9  0.243    9  0.215    9  0.143    8 0.5234   18  3.774   14  0.071   10  0.215
PHOENIX       33 33 6492 6508  0.020 33.457   18  0.024   18  0.006   15  0.042   17 0.5021    7  3.847    6  0.319   21 -0.234
GOLDEN STATE  23 43 6453 6678  0.006 33.572   22 -0.313   22 -0.340   23 -0.237   22 0.4655    6  3.858   12  0.092   26 -0.566
SACRAMENTO    22 44 6518 6893 -0.007 33.740   24 -0.358   24 -0.382   26 -0.316   24 0.4610    2  3.899    7  0.215   29 -0.847

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OKLAHOMA CITY 60 26 8827 8343  0.136 45.841    2  0.607    2  0.573    2  0.501    2 0.5594    5  3.861    2  0.841   13  0.160
DENVER        41 32 7549 7356  0.034 36.775   10  0.192   11  0.162    7  0.197   10 0.5184    1  3.902    3  0.744   22 -0.349
UTAH          36 34 6922 6945  0.035 35.876   15  0.075   15  0.061   16  0.017   14 0.5074   10  3.815   10  0.139   18 -0.105
PORTLAND      28 38 6415 6456  0.006 33.180   20 -0.147   20 -0.169   20 -0.135   20 0.4822   13  3.809   17 -0.045   20 -0.226
MINNESOTA     26 40 6464 6609 -0.004 33.210   21 -0.219   21 -0.242   22 -0.227   21 0.4754    8  3.844   15  0.031   25 -0.486

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   60 20 8269 7713  0.085 41.041    1  0.705    1  0.666    1  0.573    1 0.5669    4  3.864    1  0.929    9  0.217
MEMPHIS       44 29 6909 6771  0.038 37.022    7  0.296    7  0.270   10  0.142    6 0.5278   25  3.734   19 -0.115    5  0.399
DALLAS        36 34 6695 6658  0.084 36.942   12  0.123   12  0.097   14  0.051   12 0.5116   21  3.750   21 -0.132    8  0.235
HOUSTON       34 32 6474 6459  0.010 33.069   16  0.059   16  0.043   17  0.002   16 0.5043   14  3.806   13  0.079   17 -0.075
NEW ORLEANS   21 45 5916 6164  0.001 33.712   26 -0.399   26 -0.425   21 -0.208   25 0.4584   30  3.682   29 -0.700    7  0.284

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       52 20 6865 6335  0.017 34.518    4  0.552    4  0.511    4  0.435    4 0.5479   27  3.719   11  0.110    1  0.760
INDIANA       48 29 7449 7216 -0.002 37.528    5  0.305    6  0.280    6  0.198    7 0.5267   16  3.787    9  0.185   11  0.212
MILWAUKEE     31 35 6535 6517 -0.065 31.354   19 -0.108   19 -0.129   18 -0.040   19 0.4852    3  3.872    5  0.358   24 -0.438
DETROIT       25 41 5997 6313 -0.109 31.738   23 -0.339   23 -0.363   27 -0.333   23 0.4627   23  3.742   27 -0.553   19 -0.113
CLEVELAND     21 45 6140 6615 -0.108 32.157   28 -0.462   28 -0.484   29 -0.597   28 0.4496   12  3.810   26 -0.498   28 -0.697

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         62 27 8739 8181  0.085 45.488    3  0.568    3  0.532    3  0.492    3 0.5512   17  3.779    4  0.442    4  0.541
ATLANTA       42 30 6868 6669 -0.028 34.528   11  0.190   10  0.162   12  0.119   11 0.5143   22  3.744   18 -0.093    6  0.331
ORLANDO       38 33 6634 6636 -0.020 35.026   14  0.082   14  0.069   19 -0.112   15 0.5055   24  3.741   24 -0.335   14  0.111
WASHINGTON    20 46 6180 6497 -0.098 31.826   29 -0.491   29 -0.526   25 -0.263   29 0.4449    9  3.817   20 -0.132   23 -0.395
CHARLOTTE      7 59 5739 6657 -0.152 32.067   30 -1.071   30 -1.113   30 -1.026   30 0.3968   20  3.762   30 -1.152   30 -0.900

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        50 36 7852 7666  0.069 44.351    8  0.271    8  0.242    5  0.266    9 0.5218   29  3.685   22 -0.213    2  0.746
PHILADELPHIA  42 37 7294 7030  0.038 39.582   13  0.113   13  0.086    8  0.171   13 0.5077   28  3.704   23 -0.223    3  0.566
NEW YORK      37 34 6872 6731 -0.016 34.492   17  0.026   17  0.007   11  0.130   18 0.5010   15  3.802    8  0.188   15  0.072
TORONTO       23 43 5986 6204 -0.088 31.761   25 -0.398   25 -0.425   24 -0.244   26 0.4565   26  3.722   28 -0.557   16  0.070
NEW JERSEY    22 44 6144 6539 -0.118 31.752   27 -0.432   27 -0.455   28 -0.472   27 0.4516   11  3.814   25 -0.358   27 -0.586

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 195 160 0.549    1  0.130
NORTHWEST DIVISION 191 170 0.529    2  0.116
ATLANTIC DIVISION  174 194 0.473    3 -0.053
PACIFIC DIVISION   168 185 0.476    4 -0.077
CENTRAL DIVISION   177 170 0.510    5 -0.078
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 169 195 0.464    6 -0.189

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.256 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:56 2020
games through: Thu Jun 21 2012

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