Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   60 20 8269 7713  0.092 41.029    1  0.704    1  0.674    1  0.580    1 0.5669    4  3.864    1  0.936    9  0.224
OKLAHOMA CITY 60 26 8827 8343  0.143 45.838    2  0.608    2  0.581    2  0.508    2 0.5594    5  3.861    2  0.849   13  0.168
MIAMI         62 27 8739 8181  0.095 45.568    3  0.570    3  0.542    3  0.502    3 0.5512   17  3.779    4  0.452    4  0.552
CHICAGO       52 20 6865 6335  0.024 34.517    4  0.553    4  0.519    4  0.442    4 0.5479   27  3.719   11  0.117    1  0.767
INDIANA       48 29 7449 7216  0.007 37.567    5  0.307    5  0.289    6  0.207    7 0.5267   16  3.787    9  0.194   10  0.221
LA LAKERS     46 32 7550 7506  0.090 41.118    6  0.305    6  0.289   13  0.075    5 0.5288   19  3.768   16 -0.025   12  0.174
MEMPHIS       44 29 6909 6771  0.044 37.026    7  0.296    7  0.277    9  0.149    6 0.5278   25  3.734   19 -0.107    5  0.406
BOSTON        50 36 7852 7666  0.077 44.357    8  0.270    8  0.249    5  0.273    9 0.5218   29  3.685   22 -0.206    2  0.753
LA CLIPPERS   44 33 7438 7320  0.068 39.739    9  0.241    9  0.220   10  0.147    8 0.5234   18  3.774   14  0.076   11  0.219
DENVER        41 32 7549 7356  0.040 36.785   10  0.192   11  0.169    7  0.205   10 0.5184    1  3.902    3  0.752   22 -0.341
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       42 30 6868 6669 -0.020 34.572   11  0.191   10  0.170   12  0.128   11 0.5143   22  3.744   18 -0.084    6  0.340
DALLAS        36 34 6695 6658  0.091 36.923   12  0.122   12  0.104   14  0.058   12 0.5116   21  3.750   21 -0.126    8  0.242
PHILADELPHIA  42 37 7294 7030  0.047 39.650   13  0.114   13  0.095    8  0.181   13 0.5077   28  3.704   23 -0.213    3  0.575
ORLANDO       38 33 6634 6636 -0.011 35.053   14  0.083   14  0.078   19 -0.105   15 0.5055   24  3.741   24 -0.327   14  0.118
UTAH          36 34 6922 6945  0.041 35.850   15  0.074   15  0.067   16  0.023   14 0.5074   10  3.815   10  0.144   18 -0.099
HOUSTON       34 32 6474 6459  0.016 33.027   16  0.058   16  0.049   17  0.007   16 0.5043   14  3.806   13  0.084   17 -0.069
NEW YORK      37 34 6872 6731 -0.007 34.518   17  0.027   17  0.015   11  0.138   18 0.5010   15  3.802    8  0.196   15  0.080
PHOENIX       33 33 6492 6508  0.026 33.444   18  0.023   18  0.013   15  0.049   17 0.5021    7  3.847    6  0.325   21 -0.228
MILWAUKEE     31 35 6535 6517 -0.057 31.368   19 -0.107   19 -0.122   18 -0.033   19 0.4852    3  3.872    5  0.365   24 -0.431
PORTLAND      28 38 6415 6456  0.012 33.168   20 -0.148   20 -0.163   20 -0.129   20 0.4822   13  3.809   17 -0.039   20 -0.219
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     26 40 6464 6609  0.002 33.201   21 -0.220   21 -0.236   22 -0.221   21 0.4754    8  3.844   15  0.037   25 -0.480
GOLDEN STATE  23 43 6453 6678  0.012 33.540   22 -0.313   22 -0.334   23 -0.232   22 0.4655    6  3.858   12  0.097   26 -0.561
DETROIT       25 41 5997 6313 -0.101 31.739   23 -0.339   23 -0.357   27 -0.327   23 0.4627   23  3.742   27 -0.547   19 -0.107
SACRAMENTO    22 44 6518 6893 -0.001 33.725   24 -0.358   24 -0.376   26 -0.310   24 0.4610    2  3.899    7  0.221   29 -0.841
TORONTO       23 43 5986 6204 -0.081 31.791   25 -0.398   25 -0.418   24 -0.236   26 0.4565   26  3.722   28 -0.550   16  0.077
NEW ORLEANS   21 45 5916 6164  0.006 33.686   26 -0.400   26 -0.420   21 -0.202   25 0.4584   30  3.682   29 -0.694    7  0.290
NEW JERSEY    22 44 6144 6539 -0.110 31.758   27 -0.432   27 -0.448   28 -0.466   27 0.4516   11  3.814   25 -0.352   27 -0.580
CLEVELAND     21 45 6140 6615 -0.101 32.187   28 -0.462   28 -0.477   29 -0.590   28 0.4496   12  3.810   26 -0.491   28 -0.690
WASHINGTON    20 46 6180 6497 -0.090 31.845   29 -0.491   29 -0.519   25 -0.257   29 0.4449    9  3.817   20 -0.125   23 -0.388
CHARLOTTE      7 59 5739 6657 -0.145 32.096   30 -1.071   30 -1.107   30 -1.020   30 0.3968   20  3.762   30 -1.146   30 -0.893
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     46 32 7550 7506  0.090 41.118    6  0.305    6  0.289   13  0.075    5 0.5288   19  3.768   16 -0.025   12  0.174
LA CLIPPERS   44 33 7438 7320  0.068 39.739    9  0.241    9  0.220   10  0.147    8 0.5234   18  3.774   14  0.076   11  0.219
PHOENIX       33 33 6492 6508  0.026 33.444   18  0.023   18  0.013   15  0.049   17 0.5021    7  3.847    6  0.325   21 -0.228
GOLDEN STATE  23 43 6453 6678  0.012 33.540   22 -0.313   22 -0.334   23 -0.232   22 0.4655    6  3.858   12  0.097   26 -0.561
SACRAMENTO    22 44 6518 6893 -0.001 33.725   24 -0.358   24 -0.376   26 -0.310   24 0.4610    2  3.899    7  0.221   29 -0.841

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OKLAHOMA CITY 60 26 8827 8343  0.143 45.838    2  0.608    2  0.581    2  0.508    2 0.5594    5  3.861    2  0.849   13  0.168
DENVER        41 32 7549 7356  0.040 36.785   10  0.192   11  0.169    7  0.205   10 0.5184    1  3.902    3  0.752   22 -0.341
UTAH          36 34 6922 6945  0.041 35.850   15  0.074   15  0.067   16  0.023   14 0.5074   10  3.815   10  0.144   18 -0.099
PORTLAND      28 38 6415 6456  0.012 33.168   20 -0.148   20 -0.163   20 -0.129   20 0.4822   13  3.809   17 -0.039   20 -0.219
MINNESOTA     26 40 6464 6609  0.002 33.201   21 -0.220   21 -0.236   22 -0.221   21 0.4754    8  3.844   15  0.037   25 -0.480

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   60 20 8269 7713  0.092 41.029    1  0.704    1  0.674    1  0.580    1 0.5669    4  3.864    1  0.936    9  0.224
MEMPHIS       44 29 6909 6771  0.044 37.026    7  0.296    7  0.277    9  0.149    6 0.5278   25  3.734   19 -0.107    5  0.406
DALLAS        36 34 6695 6658  0.091 36.923   12  0.122   12  0.104   14  0.058   12 0.5116   21  3.750   21 -0.126    8  0.242
HOUSTON       34 32 6474 6459  0.016 33.027   16  0.058   16  0.049   17  0.007   16 0.5043   14  3.806   13  0.084   17 -0.069
NEW ORLEANS   21 45 5916 6164  0.006 33.686   26 -0.400   26 -0.420   21 -0.202   25 0.4584   30  3.682   29 -0.694    7  0.290

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       52 20 6865 6335  0.024 34.517    4  0.553    4  0.519    4  0.442    4 0.5479   27  3.719   11  0.117    1  0.767
INDIANA       48 29 7449 7216  0.007 37.567    5  0.307    5  0.289    6  0.207    7 0.5267   16  3.787    9  0.194   10  0.221
MILWAUKEE     31 35 6535 6517 -0.057 31.368   19 -0.107   19 -0.122   18 -0.033   19 0.4852    3  3.872    5  0.365   24 -0.431
DETROIT       25 41 5997 6313 -0.101 31.739   23 -0.339   23 -0.357   27 -0.327   23 0.4627   23  3.742   27 -0.547   19 -0.107
CLEVELAND     21 45 6140 6615 -0.101 32.187   28 -0.462   28 -0.477   29 -0.590   28 0.4496   12  3.810   26 -0.491   28 -0.690

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         62 27 8739 8181  0.095 45.568    3  0.570    3  0.542    3  0.502    3 0.5512   17  3.779    4  0.452    4  0.552
ATLANTA       42 30 6868 6669 -0.020 34.572   11  0.191   10  0.170   12  0.128   11 0.5143   22  3.744   18 -0.084    6  0.340
ORLANDO       38 33 6634 6636 -0.011 35.053   14  0.083   14  0.078   19 -0.105   15 0.5055   24  3.741   24 -0.327   14  0.118
WASHINGTON    20 46 6180 6497 -0.090 31.845   29 -0.491   29 -0.519   25 -0.257   29 0.4449    9  3.817   20 -0.125   23 -0.388
CHARLOTTE      7 59 5739 6657 -0.145 32.096   30 -1.071   30 -1.107   30 -1.020   30 0.3968   20  3.762   30 -1.146   30 -0.893

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        50 36 7852 7666  0.077 44.357    8  0.270    8  0.249    5  0.273    9 0.5218   29  3.685   22 -0.206    2  0.753
PHILADELPHIA  42 37 7294 7030  0.047 39.650   13  0.114   13  0.095    8  0.181   13 0.5077   28  3.704   23 -0.213    3  0.575
NEW YORK      37 34 6872 6731 -0.007 34.518   17  0.027   17  0.015   11  0.138   18 0.5010   15  3.802    8  0.196   15  0.080
TORONTO       23 43 5986 6204 -0.081 31.791   25 -0.398   25 -0.418   24 -0.236   26 0.4565   26  3.722   28 -0.550   16  0.077
NEW JERSEY    22 44 6144 6539 -0.110 31.758   27 -0.432   27 -0.448   28 -0.466   27 0.4516   11  3.814   25 -0.352   27 -0.580

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 195 160 0.549    1  0.136
NORTHWEST DIVISION 191 170 0.529    2  0.118
ATLANTIC DIVISION  174 194 0.473    3 -0.045
CENTRAL DIVISION   177 170 0.510    4 -0.067
PACIFIC DIVISION   168 185 0.476    5 -0.069
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 169 195 0.464    6 -0.180

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.256 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:23 2024
games through: Thu Jun 21 2012

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