Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         82 23 10670  9877  0.029 52.595    1  0.749    1  0.720    1  0.548    1 0.5676   14  3.817    4  0.586    3  0.511
SAN ANTONIO   73 30 10555  9883  0.123 55.412    2  0.625    2  0.596    3  0.508    2 0.5595   13  3.817    5  0.546    4  0.470
OKLAHOMA CITY 65 28  9752  8982  0.080 48.231    3  0.560    3  0.524    2  0.543    3 0.5508    6  3.858    3  0.778    6  0.308
MEMPHIS       64 33  9079  8730  0.122 52.704    4  0.499    4  0.474    4  0.361    4 0.5463   30  3.668   21 -0.287    1  1.008
DENVER        59 29  9322  8930  0.049 45.584    5  0.462    5  0.434    6  0.305    5 0.5437    2  3.912    2  0.803   19 -0.194
LA CLIPPERS   58 30  8857  8361  0.056 45.403    6  0.430    6  0.400    5  0.323    6 0.5409   11  3.823    6  0.386    7  0.259
NEW YORK      60 34  9259  8880 -0.013 46.663    7  0.323    7  0.305    8  0.244    7 0.5305   18  3.808   10  0.237    8  0.250
INDIANA       60 40  9418  9089  0.019 50.972    8  0.268    8  0.243    7  0.244    8 0.5254   29  3.701   20 -0.258    2  0.746
GOLDEN STATE  53 41  9528  9453  0.081 50.693    9  0.243    9  0.216   10  0.160    9 0.5222    7  3.856    7  0.382   15 -0.062
BROOKLYN      52 37  8640  8480 -0.056 43.372   10  0.169   10  0.145   11  0.086   10 0.5152   23  3.780   14 -0.052    9  0.225
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON       47 41  9288  9038  0.069 46.578   11  0.155   11  0.128    9  0.219   11 0.5122    1  3.932    1  0.818   25 -0.381
LA LAKERS     45 41  8722  8702  0.036 45.148   12  0.094   12  0.078   14 -0.005   13 0.5083    4  3.877    8  0.323   23 -0.333
CHICAGO       50 44  8744  8798 -0.004 48.271   13  0.081   13  0.069   17 -0.091   12 0.5086   28  3.715   29 -0.530    5  0.348
UTAH          43 39  8038  8045  0.007 42.293   14  0.079   14  0.063   12  0.004   14 0.5058   20  3.801   13 -0.038   12  0.045
ATLANTA       46 42  8568  8566 -0.040 43.885   15  0.035   15  0.016   15 -0.066   15 0.5017   17  3.811   15 -0.057   17 -0.075
DALLAS        41 41  8293  8342  0.001 42.289   16  0.018   16 -0.004   13  0.003   16 0.4997    5  3.861    9  0.249   20 -0.244
BOSTON        43 44  8312  8362 -0.034 43.737   17 -0.018   17 -0.044   16 -0.077   17 0.4963   26  3.747   22 -0.370   10  0.215
MILWAUKEE     38 48  8449  8631 -0.040 43.540   18 -0.147   18 -0.163   21 -0.195   18 0.4845    9  3.847   12 -0.017   24 -0.374
PORTLAND      33 49  7995  8255  0.004 43.016   19 -0.195   19 -0.211   23 -0.227   19 0.4778   10  3.823   17 -0.163   22 -0.291
PHILADELPHIA  34 48  7640  7914 -0.065 40.998   20 -0.228   20 -0.247   24 -0.228   20 0.4752   25  3.759   27 -0.465   13  0.009
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TORONTO       34 48  7971  8092 -0.076 40.184   21 -0.237   21 -0.263   18 -0.114   21 0.4729   19  3.802   16 -0.147   18 -0.081
MINNESOTA     31 51  7851  8045  0.001 42.722   22 -0.251   22 -0.278   20 -0.145   22 0.4716   22  3.793   19 -0.223   16 -0.067
SACRAMENTO    28 54  8219  8619 -0.012 42.966   23 -0.358   23 -0.380   22 -0.223   23 0.4633    3  3.900   11  0.216   29 -0.661
NEW ORLEANS   27 55  7714  8031  0.007 43.302   24 -0.362   24 -0.387   25 -0.240   24 0.4611   24  3.769   25 -0.432   14 -0.048
WASHINGTON    29 53  7644  7852 -0.067 40.804   25 -0.370   25 -0.396   19 -0.144   25 0.4602   27  3.743   26 -0.453   11  0.166
DETROIT       29 53  7778  8105 -0.088 40.518   26 -0.394   26 -0.417   26 -0.340   26 0.4586   21  3.797   24 -0.399   21 -0.281
PHOENIX       25 57  7805  8335 -0.017 43.173   27 -0.434   27 -0.456   28 -0.422   27 0.4540   15  3.815   23 -0.395   26 -0.449
CLEVELAND     24 58  7913  8297 -0.080 40.879   28 -0.513   28 -0.548   27 -0.356   28 0.4452    8  3.847   18 -0.176   27 -0.537
CHARLOTTE     21 61  7661  8418 -0.102 41.190   29 -0.637   29 -0.660   30 -0.619   29 0.4358   12  3.821   30 -0.564   30 -0.674
ORLANDO       20 62  7718  8291 -0.092 41.044   30 -0.646   30 -0.678   29 -0.532   30 0.4331   16  3.814   28 -0.510   28 -0.553
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA CLIPPERS   58 30  8857  8361  0.056 45.403    6  0.430    6  0.400    5  0.323    6 0.5409   11  3.823    6  0.386    7  0.259
GOLDEN STATE  53 41  9528  9453  0.081 50.693    9  0.243    9  0.216   10  0.160    9 0.5222    7  3.856    7  0.382   15 -0.062
LA LAKERS     45 41  8722  8702  0.036 45.148   12  0.094   12  0.078   14 -0.005   13 0.5083    4  3.877    8  0.323   23 -0.333
SACRAMENTO    28 54  8219  8619 -0.012 42.966   23 -0.358   23 -0.380   22 -0.223   23 0.4633    3  3.900   11  0.216   29 -0.661
PHOENIX       25 57  7805  8335 -0.017 43.173   27 -0.434   27 -0.456   28 -0.422   27 0.4540   15  3.815   23 -0.395   26 -0.449

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OKLAHOMA CITY 65 28  9752  8982  0.080 48.231    3  0.560    3  0.524    2  0.543    3 0.5508    6  3.858    3  0.778    6  0.308
DENVER        59 29  9322  8930  0.049 45.584    5  0.462    5  0.434    6  0.305    5 0.5437    2  3.912    2  0.803   19 -0.194
UTAH          43 39  8038  8045  0.007 42.293   14  0.079   14  0.063   12  0.004   14 0.5058   20  3.801   13 -0.038   12  0.045
PORTLAND      33 49  7995  8255  0.004 43.016   19 -0.195   19 -0.211   23 -0.227   19 0.4778   10  3.823   17 -0.163   22 -0.291
MINNESOTA     31 51  7851  8045  0.001 42.722   22 -0.251   22 -0.278   20 -0.145   22 0.4716   22  3.793   19 -0.223   16 -0.067

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   73 30 10555  9883  0.123 55.412    2  0.625    2  0.596    3  0.508    2 0.5595   13  3.817    5  0.546    4  0.470
MEMPHIS       64 33  9079  8730  0.122 52.704    4  0.499    4  0.474    4  0.361    4 0.5463   30  3.668   21 -0.287    1  1.008
HOUSTON       47 41  9288  9038  0.069 46.578   11  0.155   11  0.128    9  0.219   11 0.5122    1  3.932    1  0.818   25 -0.381
DALLAS        41 41  8293  8342  0.001 42.289   16  0.018   16 -0.004   13  0.003   16 0.4997    5  3.861    9  0.249   20 -0.244
NEW ORLEANS   27 55  7714  8031  0.007 43.302   24 -0.362   24 -0.387   25 -0.240   24 0.4611   24  3.769   25 -0.432   14 -0.048

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANA       60 40  9418  9089  0.019 50.972    8  0.268    8  0.243    7  0.244    8 0.5254   29  3.701   20 -0.258    2  0.746
CHICAGO       50 44  8744  8798 -0.004 48.271   13  0.081   13  0.069   17 -0.091   12 0.5086   28  3.715   29 -0.530    5  0.348
MILWAUKEE     38 48  8449  8631 -0.040 43.540   18 -0.147   18 -0.163   21 -0.195   18 0.4845    9  3.847   12 -0.017   24 -0.374
DETROIT       29 53  7778  8105 -0.088 40.518   26 -0.394   26 -0.417   26 -0.340   26 0.4586   21  3.797   24 -0.399   21 -0.281
CLEVELAND     24 58  7913  8297 -0.080 40.879   28 -0.513   28 -0.548   27 -0.356   28 0.4452    8  3.847   18 -0.176   27 -0.537

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         82 23 10670  9877  0.029 52.595    1  0.749    1  0.720    1  0.548    1 0.5676   14  3.817    4  0.586    3  0.511
ATLANTA       46 42  8568  8566 -0.040 43.885   15  0.035   15  0.016   15 -0.066   15 0.5017   17  3.811   15 -0.057   17 -0.075
WASHINGTON    29 53  7644  7852 -0.067 40.804   25 -0.370   25 -0.396   19 -0.144   25 0.4602   27  3.743   26 -0.453   11  0.166
CHARLOTTE     21 61  7661  8418 -0.102 41.190   29 -0.637   29 -0.660   30 -0.619   29 0.4358   12  3.821   30 -0.564   30 -0.674
ORLANDO       20 62  7718  8291 -0.092 41.044   30 -0.646   30 -0.678   29 -0.532   30 0.4331   16  3.814   28 -0.510   28 -0.553

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW YORK      60 34  9259  8880 -0.013 46.663    7  0.323    7  0.305    8  0.244    7 0.5305   18  3.808   10  0.237    8  0.250
BROOKLYN      52 37  8640  8480 -0.056 43.372   10  0.169   10  0.145   11  0.086   10 0.5152   23  3.780   14 -0.052    9  0.225
BOSTON        43 44  8312  8362 -0.034 43.737   17 -0.018   17 -0.044   16 -0.077   17 0.4963   26  3.747   22 -0.370   10  0.215
PHILADELPHIA  34 48  7640  7914 -0.065 40.998   20 -0.228   20 -0.247   24 -0.228   20 0.4752   25  3.759   27 -0.465   13  0.009
TORONTO       34 48  7971  8092 -0.076 40.184   21 -0.237   21 -0.263   18 -0.114   21 0.4729   19  3.802   16 -0.147   18 -0.081

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 252 200 0.558    1  0.192
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 196 0.541    2  0.130
PACIFIC DIVISION   209 223 0.484    3 -0.037
ATLANTIC DIVISION  223 211 0.514    4 -0.037
CENTRAL DIVISION   201 243 0.453    5 -0.162
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 198 241 0.451    6 -0.239

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.275 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:03 2020
games through: Thu Jun 20 2013

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.