Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         78 27 11085 10238  0.127 55.635    1  0.738    1  0.697    1  0.742    1 0.5690   15  3.846    2  0.772    3  0.711
THUNDER       69 31 10553 10052  0.136 53.739    2  0.580    2  0.568    3  0.379    2 0.5560   11  3.874    4  0.547   10  0.211
CLIPPERS      62 32 10151  9563  0.112 49.536    3  0.499    3  0.466    2  0.475    3 0.5456    6  3.913    1  0.835   12  0.115
TRAIL BLAZERS 59 34  9900  9642  0.107 49.629    4  0.432    4  0.406    8  0.191    4 0.5406    7  3.901    6  0.492   17 -0.109
ROCKETS       56 32  9501  9125  0.075 45.644    5  0.410    5  0.376    5  0.310    5 0.5384    5  3.918    3  0.697   15 -0.078
HEAT          67 35 10325  9900  0.014 50.596    6  0.403    6  0.370    6  0.244    6 0.5383   17  3.825   11  0.177    6  0.311
PACERS        66 35  9673  9331 -0.028 48.865    7  0.363    7  0.341   15  0.053    8 0.5324   29  3.715   25 -0.527    4  0.632
WARRIORS      54 34  9191  8818  0.084 45.816    8  0.351    8  0.325    4  0.320    7 0.5324   12  3.856    9  0.402    7  0.237
MAVERICKS     52 37  9305  9122  0.099 47.317    9  0.307    9  0.285    7  0.243   10 0.5278   10  3.886    8  0.469   14  0.017
GRIZZLIES     52 36  8461  8371  0.075 46.389   10  0.297   10  0.278   10  0.160    9 0.5284   28  3.716   24 -0.415    2  0.734
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          48 34  8629  8413  0.033 41.638   11  0.246   11  0.217    9  0.180   11 0.5222    8  3.901    7  0.480   18 -0.121
RAPTORS       51 38  8978  8723 -0.060 42.099   12  0.134   12  0.109   12  0.096   12 0.5113   20  3.813   14 -0.029    9  0.222
BULLS         49 37  8061  7926 -0.057 41.095   13  0.125   13  0.105   13  0.091   13 0.5101   30  3.673   29 -0.679    1  0.862
NETS          49 45  9225  9323 -0.034 46.437   14  0.038   14  0.026   17 -0.041   15 0.5019   24  3.804   20 -0.211   11  0.129
WIZARDS       49 43  9173  9065 -0.050 44.344   15  0.038   15  0.020   14  0.072   14 0.5026   23  3.805   16 -0.090    8  0.233
TIMBERWOLVES  40 42  8768  8549  0.036 41.687   16  0.015   16 -0.010   11  0.117   16 0.4992    4  3.919    5  0.511   25 -0.277
BOBCATS       43 43  8310  8367 -0.060 41.559   17 -0.033   17 -0.057   16 -0.034   17 0.4944   27  3.763   23 -0.393    5  0.324
NUGGETS       36 46  8559  8735  0.026 42.569   18 -0.094   18 -0.115   20 -0.133   18 0.4884    2  3.929   10  0.310   27 -0.577
HAWKS         41 48  8929  8975 -0.033 43.871   19 -0.103   19 -0.124   19 -0.076   19 0.4876   13  3.855   13  0.001   20 -0.154
KNICKS        37 45  8084  8149 -0.077 39.147   20 -0.161   21 -0.178   18 -0.041   21 0.4809   21  3.809   18 -0.184   13  0.102
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      34 48  8177  8399  0.021 42.534   21 -0.162   20 -0.178   21 -0.175   20 0.4824   16  3.832   19 -0.208   19 -0.141
CAVALIERS     33 49  8054  8324 -0.093 39.252   22 -0.272   22 -0.298   23 -0.186   22 0.4687   18  3.821   21 -0.275   16 -0.097
KINGS         28 54  8241  8479  0.025 42.709   23 -0.326   23 -0.355   22 -0.176   23 0.4650   14  3.849   17 -0.127   22 -0.226
LAKERS        27 55  8442  8958  0.012 43.083   24 -0.355   24 -0.373   25 -0.372   24 0.4622    1  3.946   12  0.157   29 -0.902
PISTONS       29 53  8286  8586 -0.088 39.487   25 -0.394   25 -0.414   24 -0.319   25 0.4577    9  3.895   15 -0.046   28 -0.592
JAZZ          25 57  7791  8379 -0.000 42.972   26 -0.435   26 -0.452   28 -0.471   26 0.4559   26  3.786   30 -0.725   21 -0.216
CELTICS       25 57  7892  8258 -0.100 39.408   27 -0.519   27 -0.550   26 -0.394   27 0.4451   22  3.808   26 -0.541   23 -0.247
MAGIC         23 59  7914  8360 -0.101 39.600   28 -0.577   28 -0.607   27 -0.429   28 0.4399   25  3.802   27 -0.606   24 -0.253
76ERS         19 63  8155  9012 -0.112 40.053   29 -0.703   29 -0.720   30 -0.711   29 0.4281    3  3.920   22 -0.312   30 -1.111
BUCKS         15 67  7829  8500 -0.101 40.004   30 -0.844   30 -0.884   29 -0.551   30 0.4167   19  3.819   28 -0.648   26 -0.454
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      62 32 10151  9563  0.112 49.536    3  0.499    3  0.466    2  0.475    3 0.5456    6  3.913    1  0.835   12  0.115
WARRIORS      54 34  9191  8818  0.084 45.816    8  0.351    8  0.325    4  0.320    7 0.5324   12  3.856    9  0.402    7  0.237
SUNS          48 34  8629  8413  0.033 41.638   11  0.246   11  0.217    9  0.180   11 0.5222    8  3.901    7  0.480   18 -0.121
KINGS         28 54  8241  8479  0.025 42.709   23 -0.326   23 -0.355   22 -0.176   23 0.4650   14  3.849   17 -0.127   22 -0.226
LAKERS        27 55  8442  8958  0.012 43.083   24 -0.355   24 -0.373   25 -0.372   24 0.4622    1  3.946   12  0.157   29 -0.902

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       69 31 10553 10052  0.136 53.739    2  0.580    2  0.568    3  0.379    2 0.5560   11  3.874    4  0.547   10  0.211
TRAIL BLAZERS 59 34  9900  9642  0.107 49.629    4  0.432    4  0.406    8  0.191    4 0.5406    7  3.901    6  0.492   17 -0.109
TIMBERWOLVES  40 42  8768  8549  0.036 41.687   16  0.015   16 -0.010   11  0.117   16 0.4992    4  3.919    5  0.511   25 -0.277
NUGGETS       36 46  8559  8735  0.026 42.569   18 -0.094   18 -0.115   20 -0.133   18 0.4884    2  3.929   10  0.310   27 -0.577
JAZZ          25 57  7791  8379 -0.000 42.972   26 -0.435   26 -0.452   28 -0.471   26 0.4559   26  3.786   30 -0.725   21 -0.216

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         78 27 11085 10238  0.127 55.635    1  0.738    1  0.697    1  0.742    1 0.5690   15  3.846    2  0.772    3  0.711
ROCKETS       56 32  9501  9125  0.075 45.644    5  0.410    5  0.376    5  0.310    5 0.5384    5  3.918    3  0.697   15 -0.078
MAVERICKS     52 37  9305  9122  0.099 47.317    9  0.307    9  0.285    7  0.243   10 0.5278   10  3.886    8  0.469   14  0.017
GRIZZLIES     52 36  8461  8371  0.075 46.389   10  0.297   10  0.278   10  0.160    9 0.5284   28  3.716   24 -0.415    2  0.734
PELICANS      34 48  8177  8399  0.021 42.534   21 -0.162   20 -0.178   21 -0.175   20 0.4824   16  3.832   19 -0.208   19 -0.141

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        66 35  9673  9331 -0.028 48.865    7  0.363    7  0.341   15  0.053    8 0.5324   29  3.715   25 -0.527    4  0.632
BULLS         49 37  8061  7926 -0.057 41.095   13  0.125   13  0.105   13  0.091   13 0.5101   30  3.673   29 -0.679    1  0.862
CAVALIERS     33 49  8054  8324 -0.093 39.252   22 -0.272   22 -0.298   23 -0.186   22 0.4687   18  3.821   21 -0.275   16 -0.097
PISTONS       29 53  8286  8586 -0.088 39.487   25 -0.394   25 -0.414   24 -0.319   25 0.4577    9  3.895   15 -0.046   28 -0.592
BUCKS         15 67  7829  8500 -0.101 40.004   30 -0.844   30 -0.884   29 -0.551   30 0.4167   19  3.819   28 -0.648   26 -0.454

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          67 35 10325  9900  0.014 50.596    6  0.403    6  0.370    6  0.244    6 0.5383   17  3.825   11  0.177    6  0.311
WIZARDS       49 43  9173  9065 -0.050 44.344   15  0.038   15  0.020   14  0.072   14 0.5026   23  3.805   16 -0.090    8  0.233
BOBCATS       43 43  8310  8367 -0.060 41.559   17 -0.033   17 -0.057   16 -0.034   17 0.4944   27  3.763   23 -0.393    5  0.324
HAWKS         41 48  8929  8975 -0.033 43.871   19 -0.103   19 -0.124   19 -0.076   19 0.4876   13  3.855   13  0.001   20 -0.154
MAGIC         23 59  7914  8360 -0.101 39.600   28 -0.577   28 -0.607   27 -0.429   28 0.4399   25  3.802   27 -0.606   24 -0.253

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       51 38  8978  8723 -0.060 42.099   12  0.134   12  0.109   12  0.096   12 0.5113   20  3.813   14 -0.029    9  0.222
NETS          49 45  9225  9323 -0.034 46.437   14  0.038   14  0.026   17 -0.041   15 0.5019   24  3.804   20 -0.211   11  0.129
KNICKS        37 45  8084  8149 -0.077 39.147   20 -0.161   21 -0.178   18 -0.041   21 0.4809   21  3.809   18 -0.184   13  0.102
CELTICS       25 57  7892  8258 -0.100 39.408   27 -0.519   27 -0.550   26 -0.394   27 0.4451   22  3.808   26 -0.541   23 -0.247
76ERS         19 63  8155  9012 -0.112 40.053   29 -0.703   29 -0.720   30 -0.711   29 0.4281    3  3.920   22 -0.312   30 -1.111

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 272 180 0.602    1  0.267
PACIFIC DIVISION   219 209 0.512    2  0.113
NORTHWEST DIVISION 229 210 0.522    3  0.076
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 223 228 0.494    4 -0.068
CENTRAL DIVISION   192 241 0.443    5 -0.227
ATLANTIC DIVISION  181 248 0.422    6 -0.280

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.219 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:20 2020
games through: Sun Jun 15 2014

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