Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         78 27 11085 10238  0.129 55.611    1  0.737    1  0.698    1  0.743    1 0.5690   15  3.846    2  0.774    3  0.712
THUNDER       69 31 10553 10052  0.138 53.701    2  0.578    2  0.569    3  0.380    2 0.5560   11  3.874    4  0.547   10  0.212
CLIPPERS      62 32 10151  9563  0.114 49.541    3  0.498    3  0.468    2  0.478    3 0.5456    6  3.913    1  0.838   12  0.118
TRAIL BLAZERS 59 34  9900  9642  0.109 49.622    4  0.431    4  0.408    8  0.193    4 0.5406    7  3.901    6  0.493   17 -0.108
ROCKETS       56 32  9501  9125  0.076 45.619    5  0.409    5  0.377    5  0.311    5 0.5384    5  3.918    3  0.698   15 -0.076
HEAT          67 35 10325  9900  0.016 50.610    6  0.403    6  0.372    6  0.246    6 0.5383   17  3.825   11  0.179    6  0.313
PACERS        66 35  9673  9331 -0.026 48.866    7  0.363    7  0.343   15  0.055    8 0.5324   29  3.715   25 -0.525    4  0.635
WARRIORS      54 34  9191  8818  0.085 45.789    8  0.350    8  0.326    4  0.321    7 0.5324   12  3.856    9  0.403    7  0.238
MAVERICKS     52 37  9305  9122  0.100 47.301    9  0.306    9  0.286    7  0.244   10 0.5278   10  3.886    8  0.471   14  0.018
GRIZZLIES     52 36  8461  8371  0.077 46.389   10  0.296   10  0.281   10  0.162    9 0.5284   28  3.716   24 -0.413    2  0.736
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          48 34  8629  8413  0.035 41.629   11  0.245   11  0.218    9  0.182   11 0.5222    8  3.901    7  0.482   18 -0.119
RAPTORS       51 38  8978  8723 -0.058 42.111   12  0.134   12  0.112   12  0.099   12 0.5113   20  3.813   14 -0.027    9  0.225
BULLS         49 37  8061  7926 -0.054 41.097   13  0.125   13  0.108   13  0.093   13 0.5101   30  3.673   29 -0.677    1  0.864
WIZARDS       49 43  9173  9065 -0.047 44.349   14  0.041   15  0.022   14  0.074   14 0.5026   23  3.805   16 -0.088    8  0.236
NETS          49 45  9225  9323 -0.032 46.417   15  0.041   14  0.028   18 -0.040   15 0.5019   24  3.804   20 -0.210   11  0.130
TIMBERWOLVES  40 42  8768  8549  0.038 41.677   16  0.016   16 -0.008   11  0.119   16 0.4992    4  3.919    5  0.513   25 -0.275
BOBCATS       43 43  8310  8367 -0.058 41.552   17 -0.032   17 -0.055   16 -0.032   17 0.4944   27  3.763   23 -0.391    5  0.326
NUGGETS       36 46  8559  8735  0.028 42.551   18 -0.094   18 -0.113   20 -0.131   18 0.4884    2  3.929   10  0.312   27 -0.575
HAWKS         41 48  8929  8975 -0.030 43.872   19 -0.101   19 -0.122   19 -0.074   19 0.4876   13  3.855   13  0.004   20 -0.151
KNICKS        37 45  8084  8149 -0.075 39.152   20 -0.160   20 -0.176   17 -0.039   21 0.4809   21  3.809   18 -0.182   13  0.104
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      34 48  8177  8399  0.023 42.514   21 -0.161   21 -0.176   21 -0.173   20 0.4824   16  3.832   19 -0.206   19 -0.140
CAVALIERS     33 49  8054  8324 -0.090 39.252   22 -0.271   22 -0.295   23 -0.184   22 0.4687   18  3.821   21 -0.273   16 -0.095
KINGS         28 54  8241  8479  0.027 42.701   23 -0.326   23 -0.353   22 -0.174   23 0.4650   14  3.849   17 -0.125   22 -0.223
LAKERS        27 55  8442  8958  0.014 43.065   24 -0.355   24 -0.371   25 -0.370   24 0.4622    1  3.946   12  0.159   29 -0.900
PISTONS       29 53  8286  8586 -0.085 39.487   25 -0.393   25 -0.411   24 -0.316   25 0.4577    9  3.895   15 -0.043   28 -0.590
JAZZ          25 57  7791  8379  0.002 42.964   26 -0.435   26 -0.449   28 -0.468   26 0.4559   26  3.786   30 -0.722   21 -0.214
CELTICS       25 57  7892  8258 -0.097 39.412   27 -0.519   27 -0.547   26 -0.391   27 0.4451   22  3.808   26 -0.538   23 -0.244
MAGIC         23 59  7914  8360 -0.098 39.607   28 -0.577   28 -0.604   27 -0.427   28 0.4399   25  3.802   27 -0.603   24 -0.250
76ERS         19 63  8155  9012 -0.109 40.050   29 -0.703   29 -0.717   30 -0.709   29 0.4281    3  3.920   22 -0.309   30 -1.108
BUCKS         15 67  7829  8500 -0.099 40.001   30 -0.844   30 -0.881   29 -0.548   30 0.4167   19  3.819   28 -0.645   26 -0.452
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      62 32 10151  9563  0.114 49.541    3  0.498    3  0.468    2  0.478    3 0.5456    6  3.913    1  0.838   12  0.118
WARRIORS      54 34  9191  8818  0.085 45.789    8  0.350    8  0.326    4  0.321    7 0.5324   12  3.856    9  0.403    7  0.238
SUNS          48 34  8629  8413  0.035 41.629   11  0.245   11  0.218    9  0.182   11 0.5222    8  3.901    7  0.482   18 -0.119
KINGS         28 54  8241  8479  0.027 42.701   23 -0.326   23 -0.353   22 -0.174   23 0.4650   14  3.849   17 -0.125   22 -0.223
LAKERS        27 55  8442  8958  0.014 43.065   24 -0.355   24 -0.371   25 -0.370   24 0.4622    1  3.946   12  0.159   29 -0.900

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       69 31 10553 10052  0.138 53.701    2  0.578    2  0.569    3  0.380    2 0.5560   11  3.874    4  0.547   10  0.212
TRAIL BLAZERS 59 34  9900  9642  0.109 49.622    4  0.431    4  0.408    8  0.193    4 0.5406    7  3.901    6  0.493   17 -0.108
TIMBERWOLVES  40 42  8768  8549  0.038 41.677   16  0.016   16 -0.008   11  0.119   16 0.4992    4  3.919    5  0.513   25 -0.275
NUGGETS       36 46  8559  8735  0.028 42.551   18 -0.094   18 -0.113   20 -0.131   18 0.4884    2  3.929   10  0.312   27 -0.575
JAZZ          25 57  7791  8379  0.002 42.964   26 -0.435   26 -0.449   28 -0.468   26 0.4559   26  3.786   30 -0.722   21 -0.214

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         78 27 11085 10238  0.129 55.611    1  0.737    1  0.698    1  0.743    1 0.5690   15  3.846    2  0.774    3  0.712
ROCKETS       56 32  9501  9125  0.076 45.619    5  0.409    5  0.377    5  0.311    5 0.5384    5  3.918    3  0.698   15 -0.076
MAVERICKS     52 37  9305  9122  0.100 47.301    9  0.306    9  0.286    7  0.244   10 0.5278   10  3.886    8  0.471   14  0.018
GRIZZLIES     52 36  8461  8371  0.077 46.389   10  0.296   10  0.281   10  0.162    9 0.5284   28  3.716   24 -0.413    2  0.736
PELICANS      34 48  8177  8399  0.023 42.514   21 -0.161   21 -0.176   21 -0.173   20 0.4824   16  3.832   19 -0.206   19 -0.140

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        66 35  9673  9331 -0.026 48.866    7  0.363    7  0.343   15  0.055    8 0.5324   29  3.715   25 -0.525    4  0.635
BULLS         49 37  8061  7926 -0.054 41.097   13  0.125   13  0.108   13  0.093   13 0.5101   30  3.673   29 -0.677    1  0.864
CAVALIERS     33 49  8054  8324 -0.090 39.252   22 -0.271   22 -0.295   23 -0.184   22 0.4687   18  3.821   21 -0.273   16 -0.095
PISTONS       29 53  8286  8586 -0.085 39.487   25 -0.393   25 -0.411   24 -0.316   25 0.4577    9  3.895   15 -0.043   28 -0.590
BUCKS         15 67  7829  8500 -0.099 40.001   30 -0.844   30 -0.881   29 -0.548   30 0.4167   19  3.819   28 -0.645   26 -0.452

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          67 35 10325  9900  0.016 50.610    6  0.403    6  0.372    6  0.246    6 0.5383   17  3.825   11  0.179    6  0.313
WIZARDS       49 43  9173  9065 -0.047 44.349   14  0.041   15  0.022   14  0.074   14 0.5026   23  3.805   16 -0.088    8  0.236
BOBCATS       43 43  8310  8367 -0.058 41.552   17 -0.032   17 -0.055   16 -0.032   17 0.4944   27  3.763   23 -0.391    5  0.326
HAWKS         41 48  8929  8975 -0.030 43.872   19 -0.101   19 -0.122   19 -0.074   19 0.4876   13  3.855   13  0.004   20 -0.151
MAGIC         23 59  7914  8360 -0.098 39.607   28 -0.577   28 -0.604   27 -0.427   28 0.4399   25  3.802   27 -0.603   24 -0.250

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       51 38  8978  8723 -0.058 42.111   12  0.134   12  0.112   12  0.099   12 0.5113   20  3.813   14 -0.027    9  0.225
NETS          49 45  9225  9323 -0.032 46.417   15  0.041   14  0.028   18 -0.040   15 0.5019   24  3.804   20 -0.210   11  0.130
KNICKS        37 45  8084  8149 -0.075 39.152   20 -0.160   20 -0.176   17 -0.039   21 0.4809   21  3.809   18 -0.182   13  0.104
CELTICS       25 57  7892  8258 -0.097 39.412   27 -0.519   27 -0.547   26 -0.391   27 0.4451   22  3.808   26 -0.538   23 -0.244
76ERS         19 63  8155  9012 -0.109 40.050   29 -0.703   29 -0.717   30 -0.709   29 0.4281    3  3.920   22 -0.309   30 -1.108

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 272 180 0.602    1  0.268
PACIFIC DIVISION   219 209 0.512    2  0.114
NORTHWEST DIVISION 229 210 0.522    3  0.077
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 223 228 0.494    4 -0.065
CENTRAL DIVISION   192 241 0.443    5 -0.222
ATLANTIC DIVISION  181 248 0.422    6 -0.279

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.219 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:47 2024
games through: Sun Jun 15 2014

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