Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      83 20 11185 10193  0.099 53.185    1  0.921    1  0.857    1  0.727    1 0.5810    2  3.907    1  1.100    5  0.353
ROCKETS       65 34 10361 10121  0.122 53.322    2  0.493    2  0.485    5  0.260    2 0.5471    6  3.887    3  0.535   17 -0.016
CLIPPERS      63 33 10260  9701  0.106 50.378    3  0.490    4  0.456    3  0.460    3 0.5449    1  3.911    2  0.856   15  0.065
GRIZZLIES     61 32  9104  8852  0.101 49.332    4  0.487    3  0.462    6  0.244    4 0.5448   28  3.745   19 -0.157    1  0.645
HAWKS         68 30  9977  9535 -0.027 47.054    5  0.456    5  0.428    9  0.190    5 0.5438   14  3.840   10  0.232   10  0.147
SPURS         58 31  9185  8674  0.085 45.935    6  0.449    6  0.419    2  0.514    7 0.5406   19  3.813    6  0.431    2  0.596
CAVALIERS     67 35 10437  9990  0.059 52.162    7  0.443    7  0.413    4  0.413    6 0.5418   15  3.837    5  0.442    4  0.383
TRAIL BLAZERS 52 35  8898  8585  0.045 44.284    8  0.279    8  0.261    8  0.191    8 0.5260   13  3.840    9  0.237   11  0.146
MAVERICKS     51 36  9178  8961  0.059 44.980    9  0.265    9  0.247   12  0.111    9 0.5255    3  3.905    4  0.473   21 -0.251
BULLS         56 38  9417  9130 -0.011 46.116   10  0.231   10  0.207    7  0.211   10 0.5209   21  3.807   12  0.099    6  0.323
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WIZARDS       52 40  9091  8993 -0.025 45.103   11  0.143   11  0.129   14  0.059   11 0.5137   22  3.791   18 -0.128    7  0.246
THUNDER       45 37  8524  8345  0.021 41.312   12  0.141   12  0.124   10  0.146   12 0.5119    8  3.883    7  0.402   18 -0.109
RAPTORS       49 37  8912  8717 -0.047 41.193   13  0.131   13  0.116   17 -0.018   13 0.5116    5  3.888    8  0.260   23 -0.296
PELICANS      45 41  8550  8517  0.050 44.624   14  0.105   14  0.092   13  0.068   14 0.5096   20  3.808   16 -0.039    9  0.174
SUNS          39 43  8397  8471  0.016 41.945   15 -0.023   15 -0.045   19 -0.127   15 0.4951    9  3.875   13  0.087   24 -0.342
BUCKS         43 45  8555  8593 -0.044 42.892   16 -0.041   16 -0.065   20 -0.129   16 0.4930   24  3.777   25 -0.384   12  0.126
JAZZ          38 44  7801  7783  0.025 41.847   17 -0.045   17 -0.071   11  0.113   17 0.4926   30  3.733   22 -0.345    3  0.570
CELTICS       40 46  8691  8715 -0.047 41.812   18 -0.104   18 -0.127   16  0.002   19 0.4874   11  3.860   11  0.145   19 -0.142
NETS          40 48  8616  8885 -0.039 43.742   19 -0.121   19 -0.133   21 -0.212   18 0.4876   18  3.817   21 -0.276   20 -0.148
PACERS        38 44  7981  7958 -0.059 39.354   20 -0.122   20 -0.142   15  0.021   20 0.4852   23  3.784   20 -0.202    8  0.243
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          37 45  7764  7977 -0.067 39.783   21 -0.158   21 -0.166   22 -0.213   21 0.4830   25  3.768   27 -0.509   14  0.084
HORNETS       33 49  7721  7981 -0.068 39.903   22 -0.265   22 -0.284   25 -0.290   22 0.4711   29  3.745   28 -0.694   13  0.114
PISTONS       32 50  8077  8159 -0.062 39.615   23 -0.285   23 -0.314   18 -0.058   23 0.4679   16  3.822   17 -0.102   16 -0.015
NUGGETS       30 52  8320  8611 -0.007 41.828   24 -0.293   24 -0.319   23 -0.218   24 0.4674    7  3.885   14  0.048   27 -0.483
KINGS         29 53  8310  8614  0.006 42.225   25 -0.310   25 -0.336   24 -0.243   25 0.4659    4  3.888   15  0.037   28 -0.524
MAGIC         25 57  7847  8316 -0.076 40.219   26 -0.495   26 -0.521   26 -0.419   26 0.4479   17  3.819   26 -0.477   25 -0.362
LAKERS        21 61  8073  8634 -0.017 42.295   27 -0.558   27 -0.588   27 -0.476   27 0.4419   12  3.851   24 -0.376   29 -0.576
76ERS         18 64  7542  8278 -0.091 40.354   28 -0.727   28 -0.759   29 -0.553   29 0.4271   26  3.767   29 -0.855   22 -0.252
TIMBERWOLVES  16 66  8016  8737 -0.020 42.577   29 -0.732   29 -0.766   28 -0.547   28 0.4275   10  3.871   23 -0.350   30 -0.743
KNICKS        17 65  7535  8299 -0.103 40.088   30 -0.756   30 -0.789   30 -0.713   30 0.4230   27  3.765   30 -1.025   26 -0.401
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      83 20 11185 10193  0.099 53.185    1  0.921    1  0.857    1  0.727    1 0.5810    2  3.907    1  1.100    5  0.353
CLIPPERS      63 33 10260  9701  0.106 50.378    3  0.490    4  0.456    3  0.460    3 0.5449    1  3.911    2  0.856   15  0.065
SUNS          39 43  8397  8471  0.016 41.945   15 -0.023   15 -0.045   19 -0.127   15 0.4951    9  3.875   13  0.087   24 -0.342
KINGS         29 53  8310  8614  0.006 42.225   25 -0.310   25 -0.336   24 -0.243   25 0.4659    4  3.888   15  0.037   28 -0.524
LAKERS        21 61  8073  8634 -0.017 42.295   27 -0.558   27 -0.588   27 -0.476   27 0.4419   12  3.851   24 -0.376   29 -0.576

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 52 35  8898  8585  0.045 44.284    8  0.279    8  0.261    8  0.191    8 0.5260   13  3.840    9  0.237   11  0.146
THUNDER       45 37  8524  8345  0.021 41.312   12  0.141   12  0.124   10  0.146   12 0.5119    8  3.883    7  0.402   18 -0.109
JAZZ          38 44  7801  7783  0.025 41.847   17 -0.045   17 -0.071   11  0.113   17 0.4926   30  3.733   22 -0.345    3  0.570
NUGGETS       30 52  8320  8611 -0.007 41.828   24 -0.293   24 -0.319   23 -0.218   24 0.4674    7  3.885   14  0.048   27 -0.483
TIMBERWOLVES  16 66  8016  8737 -0.020 42.577   29 -0.732   29 -0.766   28 -0.547   28 0.4275   10  3.871   23 -0.350   30 -0.743

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       65 34 10361 10121  0.122 53.322    2  0.493    2  0.485    5  0.260    2 0.5471    6  3.887    3  0.535   17 -0.016
GRIZZLIES     61 32  9104  8852  0.101 49.332    4  0.487    3  0.462    6  0.244    4 0.5448   28  3.745   19 -0.157    1  0.645
SPURS         58 31  9185  8674  0.085 45.935    6  0.449    6  0.419    2  0.514    7 0.5406   19  3.813    6  0.431    2  0.596
MAVERICKS     51 36  9178  8961  0.059 44.980    9  0.265    9  0.247   12  0.111    9 0.5255    3  3.905    4  0.473   21 -0.251
PELICANS      45 41  8550  8517  0.050 44.624   14  0.105   14  0.092   13  0.068   14 0.5096   20  3.808   16 -0.039    9  0.174

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     67 35 10437  9990  0.059 52.162    7  0.443    7  0.413    4  0.413    6 0.5418   15  3.837    5  0.442    4  0.383
BULLS         56 38  9417  9130 -0.011 46.116   10  0.231   10  0.207    7  0.211   10 0.5209   21  3.807   12  0.099    6  0.323
BUCKS         43 45  8555  8593 -0.044 42.892   16 -0.041   16 -0.065   20 -0.129   16 0.4930   24  3.777   25 -0.384   12  0.126
PACERS        38 44  7981  7958 -0.059 39.354   20 -0.122   20 -0.142   15  0.021   20 0.4852   23  3.784   20 -0.202    8  0.243
PISTONS       32 50  8077  8159 -0.062 39.615   23 -0.285   23 -0.314   18 -0.058   23 0.4679   16  3.822   17 -0.102   16 -0.015

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         68 30  9977  9535 -0.027 47.054    5  0.456    5  0.428    9  0.190    5 0.5438   14  3.840   10  0.232   10  0.147
WIZARDS       52 40  9091  8993 -0.025 45.103   11  0.143   11  0.129   14  0.059   11 0.5137   22  3.791   18 -0.128    7  0.246
HEAT          37 45  7764  7977 -0.067 39.783   21 -0.158   21 -0.166   22 -0.213   21 0.4830   25  3.768   27 -0.509   14  0.084
HORNETS       33 49  7721  7981 -0.068 39.903   22 -0.265   22 -0.284   25 -0.290   22 0.4711   29  3.745   28 -0.694   13  0.114
MAGIC         25 57  7847  8316 -0.076 40.219   26 -0.495   26 -0.521   26 -0.419   26 0.4479   17  3.819   26 -0.477   25 -0.362

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       49 37  8912  8717 -0.047 41.193   13  0.131   13  0.116   17 -0.018   13 0.5116    5  3.888    8  0.260   23 -0.296
CELTICS       40 46  8691  8715 -0.047 41.812   18 -0.104   18 -0.127   16  0.002   19 0.4874   11  3.860   11  0.145   19 -0.142
NETS          40 48  8616  8885 -0.039 43.742   19 -0.121   19 -0.133   21 -0.212   18 0.4876   18  3.817   21 -0.276   20 -0.148
76ERS         18 64  7542  8278 -0.091 40.354   28 -0.727   28 -0.759   29 -0.553   29 0.4271   26  3.767   29 -0.855   22 -0.252
KNICKS        17 65  7535  8299 -0.103 40.088   30 -0.756   30 -0.789   30 -0.713   30 0.4230   27  3.765   30 -1.025   26 -0.401

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 280 174 0.617    1  0.289
PACIFIC DIVISION   235 210 0.528    2  0.094
CENTRAL DIVISION   236 212 0.527    3  0.071
NORTHWEST DIVISION 181 234 0.436    4 -0.076
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 215 221 0.493    5 -0.148
ATLANTIC DIVISION  164 260 0.387    6 -0.365

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.205 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.020 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:34:17 2020
games through: Tue Jun 16 2015

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