Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      88 18 12006 11019  0.106 55.422    1  0.988    1  0.946    3  0.607    1 0.5841    1  3.962    1  1.136   11  0.078
SPURS         73 19  9510  8547  0.071 46.373    2  0.846    2  0.800    1  0.665    2 0.5714   29  3.773    7  0.272    1  1.058
CAVALIERS     73 30 10755 10082  0.075 53.432    3  0.598    3  0.563    4  0.604    3 0.5553   21  3.831    3  0.483    3  0.725
THUNDER       66 34 10953 10261  0.136 53.365    4  0.524    4  0.481    2  0.615    4 0.5465    3  3.924    2  0.953    8  0.277
RAPTORS       66 36 10290 10006  0.025 52.399    5  0.397    5  0.369   10  0.128    5 0.5368   25  3.810   15 -0.091    7  0.347
CLIPPERS      55 33  9159  8802  0.004 44.020    6  0.313    6  0.286    5  0.270    6 0.5281   19  3.838   10  0.183    6  0.357
HEAT          55 41  9560  9381  0.007 48.962    7  0.202    7  0.168    7  0.172    7 0.5188   28  3.785   20 -0.166    4  0.510
HAWKS         52 40  9434  9148  0.028 47.259    8  0.200    8  0.164    6  0.253    8 0.5171   23  3.829   11  0.125    5  0.381
HORNETS       51 38  9111  8950 -0.018 44.568    9  0.181    9  0.153   13  0.072    9 0.5154   17  3.843   12  0.013   10  0.131
CELTICS       50 38  9232  9009 -0.013 44.017   10  0.171   10  0.140   12  0.076   10 0.5134    9  3.888    9  0.234   17 -0.082
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 44  9777  9737  0.053 49.211   11  0.124   11  0.101    8  0.140   11 0.5114    8  3.896    4  0.338   16 -0.059
PACERS        48 41  9033  8883  0.005 45.338   12  0.114   12  0.090   11  0.091   12 0.5106   24  3.825   13 -0.056    9  0.237
PISTONS       44 42  8741  8725 -0.010 43.779   13  0.041   13  0.021   16 -0.035   13 0.5021   18  3.838   17 -0.119   13  0.050
MAVERICKS     43 44  8857  8973  0.023 45.642   14  0.032   14  0.012   17 -0.073   14 0.5007   22  3.830   22 -0.196   12  0.051
BULLS         42 40  8335  8456 -0.036 41.348   15  0.025   15  0.006   19 -0.163   15 0.5005   15  3.854   21 -0.172   18 -0.155
ROCKETS       42 45  9193  9271  0.025 45.608   16  0.004   16 -0.019   14  0.018   16 0.4990    4  3.920    5  0.335   23 -0.298
WIZARDS       41 41  8534  8575 -0.029 41.286   17 -0.003   18 -0.026   15  0.005   18 0.4976    5  3.904    8  0.246   21 -0.235
GRIZZLIES     42 44  8450  8722 -0.011 44.688   18 -0.005   17 -0.025   24 -0.261   17 0.4978   27  3.803   28 -0.515   14 -0.007
JAZZ          40 42  8010  7863 -0.007 41.254   19 -0.021   19 -0.054    9  0.136   19 0.4949   30  3.720   27 -0.499    2  0.771
MAGIC         35 47  8369  8502 -0.043 41.192   20 -0.196   20 -0.216   18 -0.153   20 0.4792   14  3.860   19 -0.133   19 -0.172
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         33 49  8740  8943 -0.037 41.589   21 -0.234   23 -0.257   20 -0.196   23 0.4741    2  3.955    6  0.301   30 -0.693
NUGGETS       33 49  8355  8609 -0.034 41.882   22 -0.236   22 -0.256   21 -0.214   21 0.4749   11  3.873   18 -0.131   22 -0.297
BUCKS         33 49  8122  8465 -0.043 41.788   23 -0.238   21 -0.256   25 -0.283   22 0.4748   20  3.834   24 -0.387   20 -0.180
KNICKS        32 50  8065  8289 -0.049 41.309   24 -0.267   24 -0.293   23 -0.250   24 0.4707   26  3.808   26 -0.481   15 -0.019
PELICANS      30 52  8423  8734 -0.044 41.730   25 -0.328   25 -0.353   26 -0.302   25 0.4654    6  3.902   14 -0.076   25 -0.528
TIMBERWOLVES  29 53  8398  8688 -0.043 41.614   26 -0.340   26 -0.366   22 -0.233   26 0.4619   10  3.881   16 -0.106   24 -0.359
SUNS          23 59  8271  8817 -0.062 41.956   27 -0.544   27 -0.574   27 -0.479   27 0.4448    7  3.899   23 -0.267   29 -0.691
NETS          21 61  8089  8692 -0.066 41.895   28 -0.602   28 -0.631   28 -0.523   28 0.4387   12  3.865   25 -0.478   26 -0.567
LAKERS        17 65  7982  8766 -0.058 42.708   29 -0.731   29 -0.767   29 -0.625   29 0.4287   16  3.853   30 -0.637   27 -0.614
76ERS         10 72  7988  8827 -0.076 41.983   30 -1.015   30 -1.074   30 -0.647   30 0.4064   13  3.862   29 -0.619   28 -0.676
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      88 18 12006 11019  0.106 55.422    1  0.988    1  0.946    3  0.607    1 0.5841    1  3.962    1  1.136   11  0.078
CLIPPERS      55 33  9159  8802  0.004 44.020    6  0.313    6  0.286    5  0.270    6 0.5281   19  3.838   10  0.183    6  0.357
KINGS         33 49  8740  8943 -0.037 41.589   21 -0.234   23 -0.257   20 -0.196   23 0.4741    2  3.955    6  0.301   30 -0.693
SUNS          23 59  8271  8817 -0.062 41.956   27 -0.544   27 -0.574   27 -0.479   27 0.4448    7  3.899   23 -0.267   29 -0.691
LAKERS        17 65  7982  8766 -0.058 42.708   29 -0.731   29 -0.767   29 -0.625   29 0.4287   16  3.853   30 -0.637   27 -0.614

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       66 34 10953 10261  0.136 53.365    4  0.524    4  0.481    2  0.615    4 0.5465    3  3.924    2  0.953    8  0.277
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 44  9777  9737  0.053 49.211   11  0.124   11  0.101    8  0.140   11 0.5114    8  3.896    4  0.338   16 -0.059
JAZZ          40 42  8010  7863 -0.007 41.254   19 -0.021   19 -0.054    9  0.136   19 0.4949   30  3.720   27 -0.499    2  0.771
NUGGETS       33 49  8355  8609 -0.034 41.882   22 -0.236   22 -0.256   21 -0.214   21 0.4749   11  3.873   18 -0.131   22 -0.297
TIMBERWOLVES  29 53  8398  8688 -0.043 41.614   26 -0.340   26 -0.366   22 -0.233   26 0.4619   10  3.881   16 -0.106   24 -0.359

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         73 19  9510  8547  0.071 46.373    2  0.846    2  0.800    1  0.665    2 0.5714   29  3.773    7  0.272    1  1.058
MAVERICKS     43 44  8857  8973  0.023 45.642   14  0.032   14  0.012   17 -0.073   14 0.5007   22  3.830   22 -0.196   12  0.051
ROCKETS       42 45  9193  9271  0.025 45.608   16  0.004   16 -0.019   14  0.018   16 0.4990    4  3.920    5  0.335   23 -0.298
GRIZZLIES     42 44  8450  8722 -0.011 44.688   18 -0.005   17 -0.025   24 -0.261   17 0.4978   27  3.803   28 -0.515   14 -0.007
PELICANS      30 52  8423  8734 -0.044 41.730   25 -0.328   25 -0.353   26 -0.302   25 0.4654    6  3.902   14 -0.076   25 -0.528

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     73 30 10755 10082  0.075 53.432    3  0.598    3  0.563    4  0.604    3 0.5553   21  3.831    3  0.483    3  0.725
PACERS        48 41  9033  8883  0.005 45.338   12  0.114   12  0.090   11  0.091   12 0.5106   24  3.825   13 -0.056    9  0.237
PISTONS       44 42  8741  8725 -0.010 43.779   13  0.041   13  0.021   16 -0.035   13 0.5021   18  3.838   17 -0.119   13  0.050
BULLS         42 40  8335  8456 -0.036 41.348   15  0.025   15  0.006   19 -0.163   15 0.5005   15  3.854   21 -0.172   18 -0.155
BUCKS         33 49  8122  8465 -0.043 41.788   23 -0.238   21 -0.256   25 -0.283   22 0.4748   20  3.834   24 -0.387   20 -0.180

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          55 41  9560  9381  0.007 48.962    7  0.202    7  0.168    7  0.172    7 0.5188   28  3.785   20 -0.166    4  0.510
HAWKS         52 40  9434  9148  0.028 47.259    8  0.200    8  0.164    6  0.253    8 0.5171   23  3.829   11  0.125    5  0.381
HORNETS       51 38  9111  8950 -0.018 44.568    9  0.181    9  0.153   13  0.072    9 0.5154   17  3.843   12  0.013   10  0.131
WIZARDS       41 41  8534  8575 -0.029 41.286   17 -0.003   18 -0.026   15  0.005   18 0.4976    5  3.904    8  0.246   21 -0.235
MAGIC         35 47  8369  8502 -0.043 41.192   20 -0.196   20 -0.216   18 -0.153   20 0.4792   14  3.860   19 -0.133   19 -0.172

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       66 36 10290 10006  0.025 52.399    5  0.397    5  0.369   10  0.128    5 0.5368   25  3.810   15 -0.091    7  0.347
CELTICS       50 38  9232  9009 -0.013 44.017   10  0.171   10  0.140   12  0.076   10 0.5134    9  3.888    9  0.234   17 -0.082
KNICKS        32 50  8065  8289 -0.049 41.309   24 -0.267   24 -0.293   23 -0.250   24 0.4707   26  3.808   26 -0.481   15 -0.019
NETS          21 61  8089  8692 -0.066 41.895   28 -0.602   28 -0.631   28 -0.523   28 0.4387   12  3.865   25 -0.478   26 -0.567
76ERS         10 72  7988  8827 -0.076 41.983   30 -1.015   30 -1.074   30 -0.647   30 0.4064   13  3.862   29 -0.619   28 -0.676

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 234 207 0.531    1  0.057
NORTHWEST DIVISION 217 222 0.494    2  0.055
CENTRAL DIVISION   240 202 0.543    3  0.037
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 230 204 0.530    4  0.022
PACIFIC DIVISION   216 224 0.491    5 -0.097
ATLANTIC DIVISION  179 257 0.411    6 -0.261

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.250 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:34:19 2020
games through: Sun Jun 19 2016

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