Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      83 16 11531 10347  0.085 51.021    1  0.936    1  0.889    1  0.805    1 0.5855    3  3.981    1  1.285    6  0.325
SPURS         69 29 10350  9744  0.093 51.683    2  0.549    2  0.532    2  0.404    2 0.5547   26  3.822   10  0.091    2  0.717
ROCKETS       61 32 10643 10157  0.062 48.333    3  0.420    3  0.401    4  0.281    3 0.5412    1  4.008    2  0.901   25 -0.338
CAVALIERS     64 36 11140 10736  0.048 51.820    4  0.365    4  0.355    3  0.340    4 0.5379    6  3.953    3  0.676   17  0.005
JAZZ          55 38  9334  9063  0.077 49.237    5  0.279    5  0.267    6  0.221    7 0.5270   30  3.756   26 -0.403    1  0.845
CLIPPERS      54 35  9595  9251  0.040 45.843    6  0.277    7  0.260    5  0.240    6 0.5274   11  3.908    5  0.349   11  0.131
CELTICS       62 38 10751 10587 -0.014 50.219    7  0.273    6  0.260   12  0.026    5 0.5283   10  3.911    8  0.148   19 -0.097
RAPTORS       55 37  9729  9441 -0.023 45.552    8  0.215    8  0.188    9  0.083    8 0.5210   20  3.865   14 -0.021    8  0.186
WIZARDS       56 39 10358 10210 -0.035 47.004    9  0.192    9  0.170    8  0.083    9 0.5200    8  3.937    6  0.334   21 -0.167
THUNDER       48 39  9262  9243  0.040 45.686   10  0.164   10  0.145   11  0.039   10 0.5152   14  3.892   11  0.066   16  0.012
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     45 43  8817  8827  0.054 46.694   11  0.080   11  0.070   13  0.012   11 0.5073   28  3.779   28 -0.506    3  0.530
HAWKS         45 43  9092  9169 -0.046 43.691   12  0.003   12 -0.015   21 -0.090   12 0.4998   23  3.845   22 -0.293   12  0.113
BUCKS         44 44  9056  9075 -0.026 44.225   13 -0.006   14 -0.027   18 -0.048   13 0.4981   22  3.846   21 -0.247   10  0.150
TRAIL BLAZERS 41 45  9257  9372  0.034 45.333   14 -0.006   13 -0.025   15 -0.008   14 0.4976    9  3.922    7  0.167   22 -0.183
HEAT          41 41  8460  8373 -0.037 40.604   15 -0.015   16 -0.037    7  0.105   15 0.4971   24  3.835   19 -0.144    5  0.354
NUGGETS       40 42  9161  9119 -0.004 41.729   16 -0.015   15 -0.036   10  0.080   16 0.4958    2  4.002    4  0.666   27 -0.505
BULLS         43 45  9014  9020 -0.038 43.744   17 -0.036   17 -0.059   16 -0.033   17 0.4956   25  3.829   23 -0.312    7  0.246
PACERS        42 44  9054  9087 -0.037 42.843   18 -0.039   18 -0.060   14  0.009   18 0.4944   16  3.879   15 -0.027   13  0.045
PISTONS       37 45  8309  8401 -0.042 40.911   19 -0.131   19 -0.143   22 -0.149   19 0.4852   27  3.818   27 -0.479    9  0.181
HORNETS       36 46  8601  8585 -0.039 40.684   20 -0.159   20 -0.175   19 -0.061   20 0.4822   18  3.871   18 -0.138   14  0.016
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      34 48  8556  8728 -0.004 42.234   21 -0.184   21 -0.199   20 -0.062   21 0.4796   17  3.871   17 -0.135   15  0.012
MAVERICKS     33 49  8029  8269 -0.012 42.224   22 -0.207   22 -0.222   23 -0.185   22 0.4762   29  3.765   30 -0.765    4  0.396
KINGS         32 50  8430  8748 -0.004 42.703   23 -0.221   23 -0.236   24 -0.253   23 0.4742   21  3.861   25 -0.380   20 -0.126
TIMBERWOLVES  31 51  8657  8748  0.008 42.385   24 -0.239   24 -0.267   17 -0.040   24 0.4717   12  3.896   13  0.008   18 -0.088
KNICKS        31 51  8556  8857 -0.060 40.830   25 -0.293   25 -0.321   25 -0.266   25 0.4671   13  3.896   20 -0.221   23 -0.312
MAGIC         29 53  8288  8827 -0.067 41.202   26 -0.349   26 -0.365   30 -0.446   26 0.4609   19  3.867   29 -0.541   26 -0.351
76ERS         28 54  8400  8867 -0.069 40.948   27 -0.389   27 -0.407   27 -0.336   27 0.4577   15  3.883   24 -0.352   24 -0.321
LAKERS        26 56  8575  9140 -0.024 42.666   28 -0.399   28 -0.417   29 -0.402   28 0.4557    7  3.943   16 -0.120   28 -0.685
SUNS          24 58  8831  9293 -0.022 42.441   29 -0.459   29 -0.486   26 -0.319   29 0.4498    4  3.973    9  0.117   30 -0.755
NETS          20 62  8673  9225 -0.064 41.239   30 -0.607   30 -0.640   28 -0.361   30 0.4350    5  3.962   12  0.019   29 -0.741
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      83 16 11531 10347  0.085 51.021    1  0.936    1  0.889    1  0.805    1 0.5855    3  3.981    1  1.285    6  0.325
CLIPPERS      54 35  9595  9251  0.040 45.843    6  0.277    7  0.260    5  0.240    6 0.5274   11  3.908    5  0.349   11  0.131
KINGS         32 50  8430  8748 -0.004 42.703   23 -0.221   23 -0.236   24 -0.253   23 0.4742   21  3.861   25 -0.380   20 -0.126
LAKERS        26 56  8575  9140 -0.024 42.666   28 -0.399   28 -0.417   29 -0.402   28 0.4557    7  3.943   16 -0.120   28 -0.685
SUNS          24 58  8831  9293 -0.022 42.441   29 -0.459   29 -0.486   26 -0.319   29 0.4498    4  3.973    9  0.117   30 -0.755

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          55 38  9334  9063  0.077 49.237    5  0.279    5  0.267    6  0.221    7 0.5270   30  3.756   26 -0.403    1  0.845
THUNDER       48 39  9262  9243  0.040 45.686   10  0.164   10  0.145   11  0.039   10 0.5152   14  3.892   11  0.066   16  0.012
TRAIL BLAZERS 41 45  9257  9372  0.034 45.333   14 -0.006   13 -0.025   15 -0.008   14 0.4976    9  3.922    7  0.167   22 -0.183
NUGGETS       40 42  9161  9119 -0.004 41.729   16 -0.015   15 -0.036   10  0.080   16 0.4958    2  4.002    4  0.666   27 -0.505
TIMBERWOLVES  31 51  8657  8748  0.008 42.385   24 -0.239   24 -0.267   17 -0.040   24 0.4717   12  3.896   13  0.008   18 -0.088

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         69 29 10350  9744  0.093 51.683    2  0.549    2  0.532    2  0.404    2 0.5547   26  3.822   10  0.091    2  0.717
ROCKETS       61 32 10643 10157  0.062 48.333    3  0.420    3  0.401    4  0.281    3 0.5412    1  4.008    2  0.901   25 -0.338
GRIZZLIES     45 43  8817  8827  0.054 46.694   11  0.080   11  0.070   13  0.012   11 0.5073   28  3.779   28 -0.506    3  0.530
PELICANS      34 48  8556  8728 -0.004 42.234   21 -0.184   21 -0.199   20 -0.062   21 0.4796   17  3.871   17 -0.135   15  0.012
MAVERICKS     33 49  8029  8269 -0.012 42.224   22 -0.207   22 -0.222   23 -0.185   22 0.4762   29  3.765   30 -0.765    4  0.396

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     64 36 11140 10736  0.048 51.820    4  0.365    4  0.355    3  0.340    4 0.5379    6  3.953    3  0.676   17  0.005
BUCKS         44 44  9056  9075 -0.026 44.225   13 -0.006   14 -0.027   18 -0.048   13 0.4981   22  3.846   21 -0.247   10  0.150
BULLS         43 45  9014  9020 -0.038 43.744   17 -0.036   17 -0.059   16 -0.033   17 0.4956   25  3.829   23 -0.312    7  0.246
PACERS        42 44  9054  9087 -0.037 42.843   18 -0.039   18 -0.060   14  0.009   18 0.4944   16  3.879   15 -0.027   13  0.045
PISTONS       37 45  8309  8401 -0.042 40.911   19 -0.131   19 -0.143   22 -0.149   19 0.4852   27  3.818   27 -0.479    9  0.181

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WIZARDS       56 39 10358 10210 -0.035 47.004    9  0.192    9  0.170    8  0.083    9 0.5200    8  3.937    6  0.334   21 -0.167
HAWKS         45 43  9092  9169 -0.046 43.691   12  0.003   12 -0.015   21 -0.090   12 0.4998   23  3.845   22 -0.293   12  0.113
HEAT          41 41  8460  8373 -0.037 40.604   15 -0.015   16 -0.037    7  0.105   15 0.4971   24  3.835   19 -0.144    5  0.354
HORNETS       36 46  8601  8585 -0.039 40.684   20 -0.159   20 -0.175   19 -0.061   20 0.4822   18  3.871   18 -0.138   14  0.016
MAGIC         29 53  8288  8827 -0.067 41.202   26 -0.349   26 -0.365   30 -0.446   26 0.4609   19  3.867   29 -0.541   26 -0.351

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       62 38 10751 10587 -0.014 50.219    7  0.273    6  0.260   12  0.026    5 0.5283   10  3.911    8  0.148   19 -0.097
RAPTORS       55 37  9729  9441 -0.023 45.552    8  0.215    8  0.188    9  0.083    8 0.5210   20  3.865   14 -0.021    8  0.186
KNICKS        31 51  8556  8857 -0.060 40.830   25 -0.293   25 -0.321   25 -0.266   25 0.4671   13  3.896   20 -0.221   23 -0.312
76ERS         28 54  8400  8867 -0.069 40.948   27 -0.389   27 -0.407   27 -0.336   27 0.4577   15  3.883   24 -0.352   24 -0.321
NETS          20 62  8673  9225 -0.064 41.239   30 -0.607   30 -0.640   28 -0.361   30 0.4350    5  3.962   12  0.019   29 -0.741

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 242 201 0.546    1  0.133
NORTHWEST DIVISION 215 215 0.500    2  0.054
CENTRAL DIVISION   230 214 0.518    3  0.012
PACIFIC DIVISION   219 215 0.505    4 -0.009
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 207 222 0.483    5 -0.111
ATLANTIC DIVISION  196 242 0.447    6 -0.212

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.252 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:34:22 2020
games through: Mon Jun 12 2017

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