Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKETS       76 23 10997 10271  0.073 50.662    1  2.219    1  0.682    2  0.442    1 0.5682  3.919  0.569  0.314  0.000
WARRIORS      74 29 11623 10923  0.072 52.714    2  1.980    2  0.555    1  0.485    2 0.5584  3.956  0.801  0.169  0.000
RAPTORS       63 29 10229  9635 -0.008 44.599    3  1.751    3  0.409    5  0.273    3 0.5426  3.921  0.409  0.136  0.000
CELTICS       66 35 10455 10148 -0.008 49.642    4  1.585    4  0.336   11  0.122    4 0.5370  3.804 -0.311  0.555  0.000
76ERS         57 35 10092  9684  0.004 45.351    5  1.473    5  0.258    4  0.340    5 0.5288  3.929  0.516  0.163  0.000
CAVALIERS     62 42 11316 11277  0.030 53.158    6  1.437    6  0.244   14  0.066    6 0.5270  3.948  0.340 -0.209  0.000
JAZZ          53 40  9666  9337  0.072 48.249    7  1.386    8  0.208    3  0.340    8 0.5224  3.816 -0.034  0.714  0.000
PELICANS      53 38 10151 10051  0.045 46.831    8  1.380    7  0.214    7  0.151    7 0.5234  3.970  0.540 -0.239  0.000
THUNDER       50 38  9451  9197  0.027 44.382    9  1.307    9  0.169    6  0.167   11 0.5165  3.895  0.176  0.158  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37  9083  8906  0.005 42.790   10  1.269   10  0.152    9  0.129   10 0.5167  3.863 -0.022  0.280  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PACERS        51 38  9360  9207 -0.017 43.680   11  1.260   11  0.148   10  0.125    9 0.5170  3.859 -0.045  0.296  0.000
SPURS         48 39  8908  8715  0.037 44.213   12  1.246   12  0.141    8  0.148   13 0.5147  3.800 -0.303  0.598  0.000
TIMBERWOLVES  48 39  9488  9349  0.043 44.554   13  1.240   13  0.139   13  0.090   12 0.5157  3.928  0.265 -0.085  0.000
NUGGETS       46 36  9020  8899  0.002 40.814   14  1.214   14  0.129   12  0.102   14 0.5132  3.945  0.359 -0.155  0.000
BUCKS         47 42  9444  9473 -0.008 44.353   15  1.065   15  0.055   17 -0.009   15 0.5070  3.898  0.014 -0.032  0.000
WIZARDS       45 43  9385  9349  0.013 44.422   16  1.030   16  0.031   16 -0.001   16 0.5033  3.893 -0.002 -0.001  0.000
CLIPPERS      42 40  8937  8934 -0.006 40.873   17  1.022   17  0.026   19 -0.032   17 0.5020  3.954  0.275 -0.339  0.000
HEAT          45 42  8997  9012 -0.018 42.975   18  1.012   18  0.020   18 -0.010   18 0.5013  3.827 -0.335  0.316  0.000
PISTONS       39 43  8509  8521 -0.028 40.240   19  0.858   19 -0.077   20 -0.037   19 0.4914  3.848 -0.260  0.186  0.000
HORNETS       36 46  8874  8853 -0.032 40.051   20  0.689   20 -0.167   15  0.011   20 0.4817  3.932  0.203 -0.181  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LAKERS        35 47  8862  8989 -0.017 40.866   21  0.667   21 -0.177   21 -0.052   21 0.4807  3.931  0.137 -0.241  0.000
KNICKS        29 53  8566  8858 -0.037 40.591   22  0.390   22 -0.355   24 -0.283   22 0.4620  3.891 -0.295 -0.271  0.000
NETS          28 54  8741  9048 -0.034 40.699   23  0.332   24 -0.384   23 -0.216   23 0.4592  3.932 -0.020 -0.412  0.000
KINGS         27 55  8104  8677 -0.025 41.593   24  0.324   23 -0.383   27 -0.349   24 0.4577  3.819 -0.708  0.010  0.000
BULLS         27 55  8440  9017 -0.041 40.982   25  0.265   25 -0.413   29 -0.473   25 0.4564  3.894 -0.471 -0.475  0.000
MAVERICKS     24 58  8390  8639 -0.008 41.432   26  0.165   26 -0.480   22 -0.200   26 0.4498  3.847 -0.428  0.027  0.000
MAGIC         25 57  8479  8874 -0.054 40.290   27  0.153   27 -0.483   25 -0.338   27 0.4490  3.894 -0.336 -0.340  0.000
HAWKS         24 58  8475  8922 -0.037 40.892   28  0.139   28 -0.491   26 -0.340   28 0.4475  3.902 -0.297 -0.382  0.000
GRIZZLIES     22 60  8145  8654 -0.025 41.550   29  0.070   29 -0.533   28 -0.464   29 0.4432  3.828 -0.783 -0.144  0.000
SUNS          21 61  8522  9290 -0.027 41.936   30  0.000   30 -0.567   30 -0.539   30 0.4408  3.948 -0.263 -0.815  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WARRIORS      74 29 11623 10923  0.072 52.714    2  1.980    2  0.555    1  0.485    2 0.5584  3.956  0.801  0.169  0.000
CLIPPERS      42 40  8937  8934 -0.006 40.873   17  1.022   17  0.026   19 -0.032   17 0.5020  3.954  0.275 -0.339  0.000
LAKERS        35 47  8862  8989 -0.017 40.866   21  0.667   21 -0.177   21 -0.052   21 0.4807  3.931  0.137 -0.241  0.000
KINGS         27 55  8104  8677 -0.025 41.593   24  0.324   23 -0.383   27 -0.349   24 0.4577  3.819 -0.708  0.010  0.000
SUNS          21 61  8522  9290 -0.027 41.936   30  0.000   30 -0.567   30 -0.539   30 0.4408  3.948 -0.263 -0.815  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JAZZ          53 40  9666  9337  0.072 48.249    7  1.386    8  0.208    3  0.340    8 0.5224  3.816 -0.034  0.714  0.000
THUNDER       50 38  9451  9197  0.027 44.382    9  1.307    9  0.169    6  0.167   11 0.5165  3.895  0.176  0.158  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37  9083  8906  0.005 42.790   10  1.269   10  0.152    9  0.129   10 0.5167  3.863 -0.022  0.280  0.000
TIMBERWOLVES  48 39  9488  9349  0.043 44.554   13  1.240   13  0.139   13  0.090   12 0.5157  3.928  0.265 -0.085  0.000
NUGGETS       46 36  9020  8899  0.002 40.814   14  1.214   14  0.129   12  0.102   14 0.5132  3.945  0.359 -0.155  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKETS       76 23 10997 10271  0.073 50.662    1  2.219    1  0.682    2  0.442    1 0.5682  3.919  0.569  0.314  0.000
PELICANS      53 38 10151 10051  0.045 46.831    8  1.380    7  0.214    7  0.151    7 0.5234  3.970  0.540 -0.239  0.000
SPURS         48 39  8908  8715  0.037 44.213   12  1.246   12  0.141    8  0.148   13 0.5147  3.800 -0.303  0.598  0.000
MAVERICKS     24 58  8390  8639 -0.008 41.432   26  0.165   26 -0.480   22 -0.200   26 0.4498  3.847 -0.428  0.027  0.000
GRIZZLIES     22 60  8145  8654 -0.025 41.550   29  0.070   29 -0.533   28 -0.464   29 0.4432  3.828 -0.783 -0.144  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAVALIERS     62 42 11316 11277  0.030 53.158    6  1.437    6  0.244   14  0.066    6 0.5270  3.948  0.340 -0.209  0.000
PACERS        51 38  9360  9207 -0.017 43.680   11  1.260   11  0.148   10  0.125    9 0.5170  3.859 -0.045  0.296  0.000
BUCKS         47 42  9444  9473 -0.008 44.353   15  1.065   15  0.055   17 -0.009   15 0.5070  3.898  0.014 -0.032  0.000
PISTONS       39 43  8509  8521 -0.028 40.240   19  0.858   19 -0.077   20 -0.037   19 0.4914  3.848 -0.260  0.186  0.000
BULLS         27 55  8440  9017 -0.041 40.982   25  0.265   25 -0.413   29 -0.473   25 0.4564  3.894 -0.471 -0.475  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WIZARDS       45 43  9385  9349  0.013 44.422   16  1.030   16  0.031   16 -0.001   16 0.5033  3.893 -0.002 -0.001  0.000
HEAT          45 42  8997  9012 -0.018 42.975   18  1.012   18  0.020   18 -0.010   18 0.5013  3.827 -0.335  0.316  0.000
HORNETS       36 46  8874  8853 -0.032 40.051   20  0.689   20 -0.167   15  0.011   20 0.4817  3.932  0.203 -0.181  0.000
MAGIC         25 57  8479  8874 -0.054 40.290   27  0.153   27 -0.483   25 -0.338   27 0.4490  3.894 -0.336 -0.340  0.000
HAWKS         24 58  8475  8922 -0.037 40.892   28  0.139   28 -0.491   26 -0.340   28 0.4475  3.902 -0.297 -0.382  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAPTORS       63 29 10229  9635 -0.008 44.599    3  1.751    3  0.409    5  0.273    3 0.5426  3.921  0.409  0.136  0.000
CELTICS       66 35 10455 10148 -0.008 49.642    4  1.585    4  0.336   11  0.122    4 0.5370  3.804 -0.311  0.555  0.000
76ERS         57 35 10092  9684  0.004 45.351    5  1.473    5  0.258    4  0.340    5 0.5288  3.929  0.516  0.163  0.000
KNICKS        29 53  8566  8858 -0.037 40.591   22  0.390   22 -0.355   24 -0.283   22 0.4620  3.891 -0.295 -0.271  0.000
NETS          28 54  8741  9048 -0.034 40.699   23  0.332   24 -0.384   23 -0.216   23 0.4592  3.932 -0.020 -0.412  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 246 190 0.564    1  0.200
ATLANTIC DIVISION  243 206 0.541    2  0.088
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 223 218 0.506    3  0.042
CENTRAL DIVISION   226 220 0.507    4 -0.094
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 175 246 0.416    5 -0.173
PACIFIC DIVISION   199 232 0.462    6 -0.175

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.198 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jun 16 10:11:56 2018
games through: Fri Jun  8 2018

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