Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       76 23 10997 10271  0.073 50.662    1  0.714    1  0.682    2  0.442    1 0.5682   13  3.919    2  0.569    5  0.315
WARRIORS      74 29 11623 10923  0.072 52.714    2  0.574    2  0.555    1  0.485    2 0.5584    2  3.956    1  0.801    9  0.170
RAPTORS       63 29 10229  9635 -0.008 44.599    3  0.441    3  0.409    5  0.273    3 0.5426   12  3.921    5  0.409   12  0.136
CELTICS       66 35 10455 10148 -0.008 49.642    4  0.347    4  0.336   11  0.122    4 0.5370   29  3.804   24 -0.311    3  0.555
76ERS         57 35 10092  9684  0.004 45.351    5  0.285    5  0.258    4  0.340    5 0.5288   10  3.929    4  0.516   10  0.163
CAVALIERS     62 42 11316 11277  0.030 53.158    6  0.265    6  0.244   14  0.066    6 0.5270    5  3.948    7  0.341   21 -0.209
JAZZ          53 40  9666  9337  0.072 48.249    7  0.237    8  0.208    3  0.340    8 0.5224   28  3.816   17 -0.034    1  0.714
PELICANS      53 38 10151 10051  0.045 46.831    8  0.234    7  0.214    7  0.151    7 0.5234    1  3.970    3  0.541   22 -0.239
THUNDER       50 38  9451  9197  0.027 44.382    9  0.194    9  0.169    6  0.167   11 0.5165   16  3.895   11  0.176   11  0.158
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37  9083  8906  0.005 42.790   10  0.173   10  0.152    9  0.129   10 0.5167   21  3.863   16 -0.022    7  0.280
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        51 38  9360  9207 -0.017 43.680   11  0.168   11  0.148   10  0.125    9 0.5170   22  3.859   18 -0.045    6  0.296
SPURS         48 39  8908  8715  0.037 44.213   12  0.160   12  0.141    8  0.148   13 0.5147   30  3.800   23 -0.303    2  0.599
TIMBERWOLVES  48 39  9488  9349  0.043 44.554   13  0.157   13  0.139   13  0.090   12 0.5157   11  3.928    9  0.265   17 -0.085
NUGGETS       46 36  9020  8899  0.002 40.814   14  0.143   14  0.129   12  0.102   14 0.5132    6  3.945    6  0.359   19 -0.155
BUCKS         47 42  9444  9473 -0.008 44.353   15  0.059   15  0.055   17 -0.009   15 0.5070   15  3.898   13  0.014   16 -0.032
WIZARDS       45 43  9385  9349  0.013 44.422   16  0.040   16  0.031   16 -0.001   16 0.5033   19  3.893   14 -0.002   15 -0.001
CLIPPERS      42 40  8937  8934 -0.006 40.873   17  0.036   17  0.026   19 -0.032   17 0.5020    3  3.954    8  0.275   25 -0.339
HEAT          45 42  8997  9012 -0.018 42.975   18  0.030   18  0.020   18 -0.010   18 0.5013   26  3.827   25 -0.335    4  0.316
PISTONS       39 43  8509  8521 -0.028 40.240   19 -0.056   19 -0.077   20 -0.037   19 0.4914   23  3.848   19 -0.260    8  0.186
HORNETS       36 46  8874  8853 -0.032 40.051   20 -0.151   20 -0.167   15  0.011   20 0.4817    8  3.932   10  0.203   20 -0.181
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        35 47  8862  8989 -0.017 40.866   21 -0.164   21 -0.177   21 -0.052   21 0.4807    9  3.931   12  0.137   23 -0.241
KNICKS        29 53  8566  8858 -0.037 40.591   22 -0.330   22 -0.355   24 -0.283   22 0.4620   20  3.891   21 -0.295   24 -0.271
NETS          28 54  8741  9048 -0.034 40.699   23 -0.362   24 -0.384   23 -0.216   23 0.4592    7  3.932   15 -0.020   28 -0.412
KINGS         27 55  8104  8677 -0.025 41.593   24 -0.366   23 -0.383   27 -0.349   24 0.4577   27  3.819   29 -0.709   14  0.010
BULLS         27 55  8440  9017 -0.041 40.982   25 -0.398   25 -0.413   29 -0.473   25 0.4564   18  3.894   28 -0.471   29 -0.475
MAVERICKS     24 58  8390  8639 -0.008 41.432   26 -0.454   26 -0.480   22 -0.200   26 0.4498   24  3.847   27 -0.428   13  0.027
MAGIC         25 57  8479  8874 -0.054 40.290   27 -0.460   27 -0.483   25 -0.338   27 0.4490   17  3.894   26 -0.336   26 -0.340
HAWKS         24 58  8475  8922 -0.037 40.892   28 -0.468   28 -0.491   26 -0.340   28 0.4475   14  3.902   22 -0.297   27 -0.382
GRIZZLIES     22 60  8145  8654 -0.025 41.550   29 -0.506   29 -0.533   28 -0.464   29 0.4432   25  3.828   30 -0.783   18 -0.144
SUNS          21 61  8522  9290 -0.027 41.936   30 -0.545   30 -0.567   30 -0.539   30 0.4408    4  3.948   20 -0.264   30 -0.814
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      74 29 11623 10923  0.072 52.714    2  0.574    2  0.555    1  0.485    2 0.5584    2  3.956    1  0.801    9  0.170
CLIPPERS      42 40  8937  8934 -0.006 40.873   17  0.036   17  0.026   19 -0.032   17 0.5020    3  3.954    8  0.275   25 -0.339
LAKERS        35 47  8862  8989 -0.017 40.866   21 -0.164   21 -0.177   21 -0.052   21 0.4807    9  3.931   12  0.137   23 -0.241
KINGS         27 55  8104  8677 -0.025 41.593   24 -0.366   23 -0.383   27 -0.349   24 0.4577   27  3.819   29 -0.709   14  0.010
SUNS          21 61  8522  9290 -0.027 41.936   30 -0.545   30 -0.567   30 -0.539   30 0.4408    4  3.948   20 -0.264   30 -0.814

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          53 40  9666  9337  0.072 48.249    7  0.237    8  0.208    3  0.340    8 0.5224   28  3.816   17 -0.034    1  0.714
THUNDER       50 38  9451  9197  0.027 44.382    9  0.194    9  0.169    6  0.167   11 0.5165   16  3.895   11  0.176   11  0.158
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37  9083  8906  0.005 42.790   10  0.173   10  0.152    9  0.129   10 0.5167   21  3.863   16 -0.022    7  0.280
TIMBERWOLVES  48 39  9488  9349  0.043 44.554   13  0.157   13  0.139   13  0.090   12 0.5157   11  3.928    9  0.265   17 -0.085
NUGGETS       46 36  9020  8899  0.002 40.814   14  0.143   14  0.129   12  0.102   14 0.5132    6  3.945    6  0.359   19 -0.155

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       76 23 10997 10271  0.073 50.662    1  0.714    1  0.682    2  0.442    1 0.5682   13  3.919    2  0.569    5  0.315
PELICANS      53 38 10151 10051  0.045 46.831    8  0.234    7  0.214    7  0.151    7 0.5234    1  3.970    3  0.541   22 -0.239
SPURS         48 39  8908  8715  0.037 44.213   12  0.160   12  0.141    8  0.148   13 0.5147   30  3.800   23 -0.303    2  0.599
MAVERICKS     24 58  8390  8639 -0.008 41.432   26 -0.454   26 -0.480   22 -0.200   26 0.4498   24  3.847   27 -0.428   13  0.027
GRIZZLIES     22 60  8145  8654 -0.025 41.550   29 -0.506   29 -0.533   28 -0.464   29 0.4432   25  3.828   30 -0.783   18 -0.144

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     62 42 11316 11277  0.030 53.158    6  0.265    6  0.244   14  0.066    6 0.5270    5  3.948    7  0.341   21 -0.209
PACERS        51 38  9360  9207 -0.017 43.680   11  0.168   11  0.148   10  0.125    9 0.5170   22  3.859   18 -0.045    6  0.296
BUCKS         47 42  9444  9473 -0.008 44.353   15  0.059   15  0.055   17 -0.009   15 0.5070   15  3.898   13  0.014   16 -0.032
PISTONS       39 43  8509  8521 -0.028 40.240   19 -0.056   19 -0.077   20 -0.037   19 0.4914   23  3.848   19 -0.260    8  0.186
BULLS         27 55  8440  9017 -0.041 40.982   25 -0.398   25 -0.413   29 -0.473   25 0.4564   18  3.894   28 -0.471   29 -0.475

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WIZARDS       45 43  9385  9349  0.013 44.422   16  0.040   16  0.031   16 -0.001   16 0.5033   19  3.893   14 -0.002   15 -0.001
HEAT          45 42  8997  9012 -0.018 42.975   18  0.030   18  0.020   18 -0.010   18 0.5013   26  3.827   25 -0.335    4  0.316
HORNETS       36 46  8874  8853 -0.032 40.051   20 -0.151   20 -0.167   15  0.011   20 0.4817    8  3.932   10  0.203   20 -0.181
MAGIC         25 57  8479  8874 -0.054 40.290   27 -0.460   27 -0.483   25 -0.338   27 0.4490   17  3.894   26 -0.336   26 -0.340
HAWKS         24 58  8475  8922 -0.037 40.892   28 -0.468   28 -0.491   26 -0.340   28 0.4475   14  3.902   22 -0.297   27 -0.382

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       63 29 10229  9635 -0.008 44.599    3  0.441    3  0.409    5  0.273    3 0.5426   12  3.921    5  0.409   12  0.136
CELTICS       66 35 10455 10148 -0.008 49.642    4  0.347    4  0.336   11  0.122    4 0.5370   29  3.804   24 -0.311    3  0.555
76ERS         57 35 10092  9684  0.004 45.351    5  0.285    5  0.258    4  0.340    5 0.5288   10  3.929    4  0.516   10  0.163
KNICKS        29 53  8566  8858 -0.037 40.591   22 -0.330   22 -0.355   24 -0.283   22 0.4620   20  3.891   21 -0.295   24 -0.271
NETS          28 54  8741  9048 -0.034 40.699   23 -0.362   24 -0.384   23 -0.216   23 0.4592    7  3.932   15 -0.020   28 -0.412

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 246 190 0.564    1  0.200
ATLANTIC DIVISION  243 206 0.541    2  0.088
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 223 218 0.506    3  0.042
CENTRAL DIVISION   226 220 0.507    4 -0.094
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 175 246 0.416    5 -0.173
PACIFIC DIVISION   199 232 0.462    6 -0.175

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.198 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:34:24 2020
games through: Fri Jun  8 2018

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