Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         70 27  0 11378 10519  0.027 47.629    1  0.566    2  0.524    1  0.529    1 0.5525    7  3.982    1  0.770    9  0.288
RAPTORS       74 32  1 11942 11312  0.070 54.830    2  0.553    1  0.524    2  0.488    2 0.5514   25  3.887   10  0.248    1  0.728
WARRIORS      71 33  1 12161 11557  0.086 54.797    3  0.527    3  0.493    4  0.421    3 0.5508    9  3.969    2  0.597   11  0.245
ROCKETS       59 34  0 10535 10109  0.075 48.344    4  0.393    4  0.367    3  0.437    5 0.5366   16  3.932    3  0.424    4  0.449
NUGGETS       61 35  0 10603 10253  0.050 49.297    5  0.374    5  0.354    7  0.227    4 0.5366   24  3.891   19  0.009    5  0.445
TRAIL BLAZERS 61 37  0 11157 10835  0.077 51.345    6  0.369    6  0.350    6  0.264    6 0.5355   13  3.948    6  0.332   13  0.195
76ERS         58 36  0 10749 10492  0.004 46.754    7  0.286    7  0.269    9  0.170    7 0.5278    6  3.983    4  0.417   17 -0.078
JAZZ          51 36  0  9650  9265  0.040 44.141    8  0.247    8  0.222    5  0.299    8 0.5222   22  3.899   13  0.120    2  0.478
CELTICS       54 37  0 10135  9784  0.019 45.446    9  0.243    9  0.217    8  0.187    9 0.5218   18  3.918   14  0.104   10  0.271
THUNDER       50 37  0  9913  9663  0.033 44.236   10  0.219   10  0.194   10  0.146   10 0.5197   11  3.956    9  0.255   15  0.037
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      50 38  0 10130 10119  0.034 45.405   11  0.206   11  0.188   15 -0.022   12 0.5195    5  4.006    5  0.346   23 -0.390
SPURS         51 38  0  9879  9754  0.028 45.411   12  0.205   12  0.183   11  0.112   11 0.5196   17  3.927   16  0.074   14  0.150
PACERS        48 38  0  9224  8981 -0.025 41.820   13  0.119   13  0.102   12  0.057   13 0.5098   28  3.855   23 -0.337    3  0.451
MAGIC         43 44  0  9260  9274 -0.020 43.241   14 -0.011   14 -0.031   13  0.043   14 0.4970   27  3.865   22 -0.306    7  0.391
NETS          43 44  0  9761  9822 -0.031 42.998   15 -0.020   15 -0.040   16 -0.037   15 0.4962   12  3.951   17  0.043   18 -0.118
KINGS         39 43  0  9363  9455 -0.004 41.393   16 -0.039   16 -0.057   17 -0.074   16 0.4935    4  4.010    7  0.314   24 -0.462
PISTONS       41 45  0  9170  9285 -0.021 43.020   17 -0.052   17 -0.070   19 -0.111   17 0.4923   26  3.868   25 -0.443   12  0.221
HEAT          39 43  0  8668  8687 -0.040 40.134   18 -0.076   19 -0.097   14 -0.022   18 0.4904   29  3.852   24 -0.432    8  0.388
HORNETS       39 43  0  9081  9171 -0.046 40.197   19 -0.078   18 -0.095   21 -0.128   19 0.4901   15  3.943   20 -0.087   19 -0.169
LAKERS        37 45  0  9165  9306 -0.001 41.617   20 -0.095   20 -0.113   22 -0.138   20 0.4883   10  3.965   18  0.015   20 -0.291
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  36 46  0  9223  9346  0.007 41.786   21 -0.117   21 -0.135   20 -0.119   21 0.4859    8  3.974   15  0.081   21 -0.320
GRIZZLIES     33 49  0  8490  8703  0.003 41.899   22 -0.200   22 -0.217   23 -0.174   22 0.4771   30  3.811   30 -0.781    6  0.433
MAVERICKS     33 49  0  8927  9032  0.004 41.649   23 -0.202   23 -0.223   18 -0.102   23 0.4768   20  3.912   21 -0.219   16  0.014
PELICANS      33 49  0  9466  9575 -0.011 41.243   24 -0.209   24 -0.230   24 -0.205   24 0.4753    1  4.034    8  0.307   29 -0.716
WIZARDS       32 50  0  9350  9588 -0.072 39.776   25 -0.285   25 -0.313   25 -0.211   25 0.4678    3  4.011   12  0.182   28 -0.603
HAWKS         29 53  0  9294  9788 -0.066 40.611   26 -0.370   26 -0.387   26 -0.300   26 0.4605    2  4.032   11  0.205   30 -0.805
BULLS         22 60  0  8605  9295 -0.072 40.908   27 -0.571   27 -0.598   27 -0.526   27 0.4407   23  3.895   28 -0.723   22 -0.328
SUNS          19 63  0  8815  9581 -0.024 42.381   28 -0.609   28 -0.635   28 -0.542   28 0.4357   14  3.946   26 -0.484   27 -0.600
CAVALIERS     19 63  0  8567  9355 -0.072 41.228   29 -0.660   29 -0.686   29 -0.571   29 0.4321   19  3.915   27 -0.670   25 -0.471
KNICKS        17 65  0  8575  9330 -0.062 41.359   30 -0.715   30 -0.748   30 -0.624   30 0.4270   21  3.909   29 -0.756   26 -0.492
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      71 33  1 12161 11557  0.086 54.797    3  0.527    3  0.493    4  0.421    3 0.5508    9  3.969    2  0.597   11  0.245
CLIPPERS      50 38  0 10130 10119  0.034 45.405   11  0.206   11  0.188   15 -0.022   12 0.5195    5  4.006    5  0.346   23 -0.390
KINGS         39 43  0  9363  9455 -0.004 41.393   16 -0.039   16 -0.057   17 -0.074   16 0.4935    4  4.010    7  0.314   24 -0.462
LAKERS        37 45  0  9165  9306 -0.001 41.617   20 -0.095   20 -0.113   22 -0.138   20 0.4883   10  3.965   18  0.015   20 -0.291
SUNS          19 63  0  8815  9581 -0.024 42.381   28 -0.609   28 -0.635   28 -0.542   28 0.4357   14  3.946   26 -0.484   27 -0.600

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       61 35  0 10603 10253  0.050 49.297    5  0.374    5  0.354    7  0.227    4 0.5366   24  3.891   19  0.009    5  0.445
TRAIL BLAZERS 61 37  0 11157 10835  0.077 51.345    6  0.369    6  0.350    6  0.264    6 0.5355   13  3.948    6  0.332   13  0.195
JAZZ          51 36  0  9650  9265  0.040 44.141    8  0.247    8  0.222    5  0.299    8 0.5222   22  3.899   13  0.120    2  0.478
THUNDER       50 37  0  9913  9663  0.033 44.236   10  0.219   10  0.194   10  0.146   10 0.5197   11  3.956    9  0.255   15  0.037
TIMBERWOLVES  36 46  0  9223  9346  0.007 41.786   21 -0.117   21 -0.135   20 -0.119   21 0.4859    8  3.974   15  0.081   21 -0.320

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       59 34  0 10535 10109  0.075 48.344    4  0.393    4  0.367    3  0.437    5 0.5366   16  3.932    3  0.424    4  0.449
SPURS         51 38  0  9879  9754  0.028 45.411   12  0.205   12  0.183   11  0.112   11 0.5196   17  3.927   16  0.074   14  0.150
GRIZZLIES     33 49  0  8490  8703  0.003 41.899   22 -0.200   22 -0.217   23 -0.174   22 0.4771   30  3.811   30 -0.781    6  0.433
MAVERICKS     33 49  0  8927  9032  0.004 41.649   23 -0.202   23 -0.223   18 -0.102   23 0.4768   20  3.912   21 -0.219   16  0.014
PELICANS      33 49  0  9466  9575 -0.011 41.243   24 -0.209   24 -0.230   24 -0.205   24 0.4753    1  4.034    8  0.307   29 -0.716

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         70 27  0 11378 10519  0.027 47.629    1  0.566    2  0.524    1  0.529    1 0.5525    7  3.982    1  0.770    9  0.288
PACERS        48 38  0  9224  8981 -0.025 41.820   13  0.119   13  0.102   12  0.057   13 0.5098   28  3.855   23 -0.337    3  0.451
PISTONS       41 45  0  9170  9285 -0.021 43.020   17 -0.052   17 -0.070   19 -0.111   17 0.4923   26  3.868   25 -0.443   12  0.221
BULLS         22 60  0  8605  9295 -0.072 40.908   27 -0.571   27 -0.598   27 -0.526   27 0.4407   23  3.895   28 -0.723   22 -0.328
CAVALIERS     19 63  0  8567  9355 -0.072 41.228   29 -0.660   29 -0.686   29 -0.571   29 0.4321   19  3.915   27 -0.670   25 -0.471

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         43 44  0  9260  9274 -0.020 43.241   14 -0.011   14 -0.031   13  0.043   14 0.4970   27  3.865   22 -0.306    7  0.391
HEAT          39 43  0  8668  8687 -0.040 40.134   18 -0.076   19 -0.097   14 -0.022   18 0.4904   29  3.852   24 -0.432    8  0.388
HORNETS       39 43  0  9081  9171 -0.046 40.197   19 -0.078   18 -0.095   21 -0.128   19 0.4901   15  3.943   20 -0.087   19 -0.169
WIZARDS       32 50  0  9350  9588 -0.072 39.776   25 -0.285   25 -0.313   25 -0.211   25 0.4678    3  4.011   12  0.182   28 -0.603
HAWKS         29 53  0  9294  9788 -0.066 40.611   26 -0.370   26 -0.387   26 -0.300   26 0.4605    2  4.032   11  0.205   30 -0.805

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                   STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       74 32  1 11942 11312  0.070 54.830    2  0.553    1  0.524    2  0.488    2 0.5514   25  3.887   10  0.248    1  0.728
76ERS         58 36  0 10749 10492  0.004 46.754    7  0.286    7  0.269    9  0.170    7 0.5278    6  3.983    4  0.417   17 -0.078
CELTICS       54 37  0 10135  9784  0.019 45.446    9  0.243    9  0.217    8  0.187    9 0.5218   18  3.918   14  0.104   10  0.271
NETS          43 44  0  9761  9822 -0.031 42.998   15 -0.020   15 -0.040   16 -0.037   15 0.4962   12  3.951   17  0.043   18 -0.118
KNICKS        17 65  0  8575  9330 -0.062 41.359   30 -0.715   30 -0.748   30 -0.624   30 0.4270   21  3.909   29 -0.756   26 -0.492

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 259 191   0 0.576    1  0.227
ATLANTIC DIVISION  246 214   1 0.535    2  0.044
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 209 219   0 0.488    3  0.026
PACIFIC DIVISION   216 222   1 0.493    4 -0.076
CENTRAL DIVISION   200 233   0 0.462    5 -0.156
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 182 233   0 0.439    6 -0.197

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.223 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:06:09 2024
games through: Thu Jun 13 2019

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