Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        68 24 10423  9868  0.083 48.909    1  0.682    1  0.629    2  0.375    1 0.5656   16  3.921    9  0.269    4  0.480
BUCKS         61 22  9774  9026  0.005 41.067    2  0.605    2  0.552    7  0.228    2 0.5542    9  3.984    2  0.446   17  0.009
RAPTORS       60 23  9321  8827  0.036 42.350    3  0.593    3  0.548    4  0.344    3 0.5542   22  3.908   13  0.173    2  0.516
CLIPPERS      56 29  9859  9340  0.070 44.671    4  0.467    4  0.412    3  0.362    4 0.5427   12  3.960    1  0.456    6  0.269
CELTICS       58 31 10042  9503  0.053 45.973    5  0.434    5  0.382    1  0.438    5 0.5409   20  3.911    8  0.284    1  0.592
HEAT          58 36 10489 10232  0.088 50.422    6  0.368    6  0.342    5  0.328    6 0.5357   21  3.909   14  0.165    3  0.491
NUGGETS       55 37 10165 10054  0.091 49.948    7  0.315    7  0.294    8  0.116    7 0.5319   24  3.899   19 -0.100    5  0.331
THUNDER       47 32  8678  8580  0.033 41.220    8  0.266    8  0.241   17 -0.025    9 0.5248   28  3.883   23 -0.316    7  0.266
ROCKETS       49 35  9774  9552  0.049 44.104    9  0.263   10  0.225    9  0.114    8 0.5254    5  4.006    3  0.445   22 -0.216
JAZZ          47 32  8807  8605  0.018 40.545   10  0.263    9  0.227   10  0.099   10 0.5242   17  3.919   17 -0.016   11  0.214
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        45 32  8392  8291 -0.020 38.571   11  0.199   11  0.165   16 -0.004   11 0.5180   25  3.895   22 -0.237   10  0.230
MAVERICKS     45 36  9478  9165  0.039 41.881   12  0.183   12  0.144   14  0.013   13 0.5144    7  3.989   10  0.257   24 -0.231
76ERS         43 34  8486  8359  0.018 39.526   13  0.175   13  0.142   12  0.034   12 0.5147   19  3.914   20 -0.105   12  0.174
TRAIL BLAZERS 37 43  9167  9301  0.047 42.660   14 -0.014   14 -0.043   15  0.001   14 0.4960    3  4.012    5  0.365   26 -0.362
SUNS          34 39  8294  8278 -0.007 37.183   15 -0.054   15 -0.087    6  0.241   15 0.4907   10  3.978    4  0.429   14  0.053
SPURS         32 39  8098  8177  0.017 36.965   16 -0.069   16 -0.099   11  0.055   16 0.4892    8  3.987    7  0.286   21 -0.176
GRIZZLIES     34 40  8344  8426 -0.017 37.580   17 -0.079   17 -0.108   13  0.014   18 0.4878   11  3.976   12  0.188   19 -0.160
NETS          35 41  8471  8594 -0.037 38.180   18 -0.093   18 -0.118   21 -0.147   17 0.4881   13  3.955   18 -0.076   23 -0.218
MAGIC         34 44  8366  8486  0.023 40.925   19 -0.102   19 -0.130   18 -0.063   19 0.4870   29  3.880   25 -0.372    9  0.246
KINGS         31 41  7927  8074  0.006 37.334   20 -0.124   20 -0.150   19 -0.074   20 0.4828   15  3.923   21 -0.166   15  0.018
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      30 42  8341  8434  0.030 37.863   21 -0.143   21 -0.171   20 -0.098   21 0.4823    2  4.024    6  0.327   28 -0.522
HORNETS       23 42  6687  7126 -0.089 32.282   22 -0.357   22 -0.388   26 -0.243   22 0.4575   30  3.842   30 -0.737    8  0.251
WIZARDS       25 47  8238  8574 -0.104 35.034   23 -0.396   23 -0.434   29 -0.291   23 0.4542    1  4.046   11  0.254   30 -0.835
TIMBERWOLVES  19 45  7248  7523 -0.027 32.778   24 -0.437   24 -0.481   22 -0.172   25 0.4492    6  3.994   15  0.099   27 -0.442
BULLS         22 43  6945  7145 -0.135 30.621   25 -0.440   26 -0.484   23 -0.183   26 0.4489   27  3.890   28 -0.443   13  0.077
KNICKS        21 45  6983  7409 -0.094 32.598   26 -0.445   25 -0.482   25 -0.236   24 0.4500   26  3.894   29 -0.475   18  0.003
HAWKS         20 47  7488  8022 -0.056 34.170   27 -0.460   27 -0.495   27 -0.277   27 0.4484    4  4.008   16  0.069   29 -0.622
PISTONS       20 46  7078  7313 -0.122 31.500   28 -0.495   29 -0.546   24 -0.203   29 0.4426   23  3.899   26 -0.416   16  0.009
CAVALIERS     19 46  6948  7461 -0.095 32.472   29 -0.507   28 -0.542   28 -0.279   28 0.4437   14  3.934   24 -0.319   25 -0.238
WARRIORS      15 50  6912  7478 -0.026 33.749   30 -0.597   30 -0.638   30 -0.296   30 0.4331   18  3.915   27 -0.428   20 -0.165
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        68 24 10423  9868  0.083 48.909    1  0.682    1  0.629    2  0.375    1 0.5656   16  3.921    9  0.269    4  0.480
CLIPPERS      56 29  9859  9340  0.070 44.671    4  0.467    4  0.412    3  0.362    4 0.5427   12  3.960    1  0.456    6  0.269
SUNS          34 39  8294  8278 -0.007 37.183   15 -0.054   15 -0.087    6  0.241   15 0.4907   10  3.978    4  0.429   14  0.053
KINGS         31 41  7927  8074  0.006 37.334   20 -0.124   20 -0.150   19 -0.074   20 0.4828   15  3.923   21 -0.166   15  0.018
WARRIORS      15 50  6912  7478 -0.026 33.749   30 -0.597   30 -0.638   30 -0.296   30 0.4331   18  3.915   27 -0.428   20 -0.165

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       55 37 10165 10054  0.091 49.948    7  0.315    7  0.294    8  0.116    7 0.5319   24  3.899   19 -0.100    5  0.331
THUNDER       47 32  8678  8580  0.033 41.220    8  0.266    8  0.241   17 -0.025    9 0.5248   28  3.883   23 -0.316    7  0.266
JAZZ          47 32  8807  8605  0.018 40.545   10  0.263    9  0.227   10  0.099   10 0.5242   17  3.919   17 -0.016   11  0.214
TRAIL BLAZERS 37 43  9167  9301  0.047 42.660   14 -0.014   14 -0.043   15  0.001   14 0.4960    3  4.012    5  0.365   26 -0.362
TIMBERWOLVES  19 45  7248  7523 -0.027 32.778   24 -0.437   24 -0.481   22 -0.172   25 0.4492    6  3.994   15  0.099   27 -0.442

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       49 35  9774  9552  0.049 44.104    9  0.263   10  0.225    9  0.114    8 0.5254    5  4.006    3  0.445   22 -0.216
MAVERICKS     45 36  9478  9165  0.039 41.881   12  0.183   12  0.144   14  0.013   13 0.5144    7  3.989   10  0.257   24 -0.231
SPURS         32 39  8098  8177  0.017 36.965   16 -0.069   16 -0.099   11  0.055   16 0.4892    8  3.987    7  0.286   21 -0.176
GRIZZLIES     34 40  8344  8426 -0.017 37.580   17 -0.079   17 -0.108   13  0.014   18 0.4878   11  3.976   12  0.188   19 -0.160
PELICANS      30 42  8341  8434  0.030 37.863   21 -0.143   21 -0.171   20 -0.098   21 0.4823    2  4.024    6  0.327   28 -0.522

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         61 22  9774  9026  0.005 41.067    2  0.605    2  0.552    7  0.228    2 0.5542    9  3.984    2  0.446   17  0.009
PACERS        45 32  8392  8291 -0.020 38.571   11  0.199   11  0.165   16 -0.004   11 0.5180   25  3.895   22 -0.237   10  0.230
BULLS         22 43  6945  7145 -0.135 30.621   25 -0.440   26 -0.484   23 -0.183   26 0.4489   27  3.890   28 -0.443   13  0.077
PISTONS       20 46  7078  7313 -0.122 31.500   28 -0.495   29 -0.546   24 -0.203   29 0.4426   23  3.899   26 -0.416   16  0.009
CAVALIERS     19 46  6948  7461 -0.095 32.472   29 -0.507   28 -0.542   28 -0.279   28 0.4437   14  3.934   24 -0.319   25 -0.238

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          58 36 10489 10232  0.088 50.422    6  0.368    6  0.342    5  0.328    6 0.5357   21  3.909   14  0.165    3  0.491
MAGIC         34 44  8366  8486  0.023 40.925   19 -0.102   19 -0.130   18 -0.063   19 0.4870   29  3.880   25 -0.372    9  0.246
HORNETS       23 42  6687  7126 -0.089 32.282   22 -0.357   22 -0.388   26 -0.243   22 0.4575   30  3.842   30 -0.737    8  0.251
WIZARDS       25 47  8238  8574 -0.104 35.034   23 -0.396   23 -0.434   29 -0.291   23 0.4542    1  4.046   11  0.254   30 -0.835
HAWKS         20 47  7488  8022 -0.056 34.170   27 -0.460   27 -0.495   27 -0.277   27 0.4484    4  4.008   16  0.069   29 -0.622

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       60 23  9321  8827  0.036 42.350    3  0.593    3  0.548    4  0.344    3 0.5542   22  3.908   13  0.173    2  0.516
CELTICS       58 31 10042  9503  0.053 45.973    5  0.434    5  0.382    1  0.438    5 0.5409   20  3.911    8  0.284    1  0.592
76ERS         43 34  8486  8359  0.018 39.526   13  0.175   13  0.142   12  0.034   12 0.5147   19  3.914   20 -0.105   12  0.174
NETS          35 41  8471  8594 -0.037 38.180   18 -0.093   18 -0.118   21 -0.147   17 0.4881   13  3.955   18 -0.076   23 -0.218
KNICKS        21 45  6983  7409 -0.094 32.598   26 -0.445   25 -0.482   25 -0.236   24 0.4500   26  3.894   29 -0.475   18  0.003

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION  217 174 0.555    1  0.079
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 190 192 0.497    2  0.066
PACIFIC DIVISION   204 183 0.527    3  0.051
NORTHWEST DIVISION 205 189 0.520    4  0.018
CENTRAL DIVISION   167 189 0.469    5 -0.141
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 160 216 0.426    6 -0.294

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.188 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.016 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Oct 12 20:21:51 2020
games through: Sun Oct 11 2020

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