Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          65 29 10698 10181  0.096 49.333    1  0.535    1  0.512    2  0.443    1 0.5525   22  3.926    7  0.345    2  0.542
JAZZ          58 25  9668  9011  0.053 41.772    2  0.520    2  0.491    3  0.442    2 0.5494   12  3.959    4  0.507    6  0.377
BUCKS         62 33 11186 10644  0.063 48.751    3  0.427    3  0.398    4  0.425    3 0.5419    5  4.004    1  0.728   11  0.122
76ERS         56 28  9577  9085 -0.008 40.860    4  0.388    4  0.366    5  0.367    4 0.5380   23  3.924    9  0.256    5  0.477
NETS          55 29  9887  9487  0.032 42.216    5  0.382    5  0.363    6  0.338    5 0.5373    6  4.001    2  0.621   12  0.055
CLIPPERS      57 34 10329  9807  0.097 47.678    6  0.378    6  0.358    1  0.449    6 0.5371   19  3.934    6  0.388    3  0.510
NUGGETS       51 31  9432  9132  0.034 41.447    7  0.319    7  0.305    7  0.182    7 0.5316   14  3.950   11  0.202    9  0.163
HAWKS         51 39 10099  9959  0.058 46.699    8  0.218    8  0.196    9  0.158    8 0.5198   16  3.943   14  0.145    8  0.171
LAKERS        45 34  8575  8410  0.033 40.177    9  0.203    9  0.182   13  0.071    9 0.5191   29  3.858   23 -0.368    4  0.509
MAVERICKS     45 34  8838  8711  0.040 40.398   10  0.203   10  0.181   10  0.132   10 0.5187   17  3.940   16  0.101   10  0.162
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 44 34  9077  8956  0.017 39.310   11  0.172   11  0.152    8  0.174   11 0.5163    3  4.013    3  0.522   21 -0.174
KNICKS        42 35  8191  8060 -0.011 37.988   12  0.100   12  0.084   11  0.115   12 0.5089   30  3.825   26 -0.480    1  0.711
GRIZZLIES     41 38  8949  8908  0.030 40.323   13  0.075   13  0.061   14  0.063   13 0.5062   11  3.960   15  0.133   14 -0.007
WARRIORS      39 35  8399  8331 -0.005 36.787   14  0.070   15  0.055   12  0.075   15 0.5053    9  3.972   10  0.208   18 -0.057
HEAT          40 36  8173  8253 -0.004 38.155   15  0.067   14  0.056   19 -0.062   14 0.5053   27  3.872   25 -0.430    7  0.306
CELTICS       38 40  8788  8721 -0.001 38.901   16 -0.012   16 -0.037   15  0.006   16 0.4960   15  3.949   17  0.024   15 -0.011
PACERS        35 39  8561  8564 -0.032 36.209   17 -0.068   17 -0.090   17 -0.057   17 0.4899    4  4.007    8  0.259   25 -0.374
WIZARDS       36 43  9190  9383 -0.004 39.932   18 -0.081   18 -0.098   20 -0.099   18 0.4886    1  4.046    5  0.426   30 -0.624
SPURS         33 40  8094  8223 -0.015 36.475   19 -0.104   19 -0.123   22 -0.120   19 0.4872   20  3.929   21 -0.204   17 -0.037
HORNETS       33 40  7998  8164 -0.033 36.090   20 -0.118   20 -0.135   24 -0.212   20 0.4853   21  3.929   22 -0.297   20 -0.127
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      31 41  8251  8272 -0.013 35.768   21 -0.151   22 -0.173   16 -0.034   22 0.4818    8  3.990   12  0.194   23 -0.262
KINGS         31 41  8189  8454 -0.022 36.092   22 -0.157   21 -0.168   23 -0.191   21 0.4818    2  4.018   13  0.185   27 -0.566
BULLS         31 41  7969  8033 -0.030 35.451   23 -0.172   23 -0.189   18 -0.059   23 0.4800   18  3.934   20 -0.119   13  0.002
RAPTORS       27 45  8011  8045 -0.029 35.407   24 -0.277   24 -0.306   21 -0.099   24 0.4667   13  3.950   19 -0.079   19 -0.120
TIMBERWOLVES  23 49  8073  8473 -0.031 36.206   25 -0.404   25 -0.424   25 -0.246   25 0.4551    7  3.994   18  0.000   26 -0.493
THUNDER       22 50  7560  8326 -0.043 36.625   26 -0.447   26 -0.455   30 -0.726   26 0.4518   24  3.917   28 -0.873   28 -0.579
CAVALIERS     22 50  7476  8084 -0.047 36.079   27 -0.457   27 -0.469   28 -0.568   27 0.4500   28  3.870   30 -0.947   22 -0.189
MAGIC         21 51  7488  8158 -0.052 36.150   28 -0.493   28 -0.508   29 -0.626   28 0.4467   25  3.893   29 -0.892   24 -0.360
PISTONS       20 52  7676  7998 -0.040 35.764   29 -0.511   29 -0.543   26 -0.332   29 0.4434   26  3.887   27 -0.628   16 -0.036
ROCKETS       17 55  7833  8402 -0.035 36.421   30 -0.607   30 -0.638   27 -0.511   30 0.4351   10  3.967   24 -0.402   29 -0.619
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          65 29 10698 10181  0.096 49.333    1  0.535    1  0.512    2  0.443    1 0.5525   22  3.926    7  0.345    2  0.542
CLIPPERS      57 34 10329  9807  0.097 47.678    6  0.378    6  0.358    1  0.449    6 0.5371   19  3.934    6  0.388    3  0.510
LAKERS        45 34  8575  8410  0.033 40.177    9  0.203    9  0.182   13  0.071    9 0.5191   29  3.858   23 -0.368    4  0.509
WARRIORS      39 35  8399  8331 -0.005 36.787   14  0.070   15  0.055   12  0.075   15 0.5053    9  3.972   10  0.208   18 -0.057
KINGS         31 41  8189  8454 -0.022 36.092   22 -0.157   21 -0.168   23 -0.191   21 0.4818    2  4.018   13  0.185   27 -0.566

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          58 25  9668  9011  0.053 41.772    2  0.520    2  0.491    3  0.442    2 0.5494   12  3.959    4  0.507    6  0.377
NUGGETS       51 31  9432  9132  0.034 41.447    7  0.319    7  0.305    7  0.182    7 0.5316   14  3.950   11  0.202    9  0.163
TRAIL BLAZERS 44 34  9077  8956  0.017 39.310   11  0.172   11  0.152    8  0.174   11 0.5163    3  4.013    3  0.522   21 -0.174
TIMBERWOLVES  23 49  8073  8473 -0.031 36.206   25 -0.404   25 -0.424   25 -0.246   25 0.4551    7  3.994   18  0.000   26 -0.493
THUNDER       22 50  7560  8326 -0.043 36.625   26 -0.447   26 -0.455   30 -0.726   26 0.4518   24  3.917   28 -0.873   28 -0.579

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     45 34  8838  8711  0.040 40.398   10  0.203   10  0.181   10  0.132   10 0.5187   17  3.940   16  0.101   10  0.162
GRIZZLIES     41 38  8949  8908  0.030 40.323   13  0.075   13  0.061   14  0.063   13 0.5062   11  3.960   15  0.133   14 -0.007
SPURS         33 40  8094  8223 -0.015 36.475   19 -0.104   19 -0.123   22 -0.120   19 0.4872   20  3.929   21 -0.204   17 -0.037
PELICANS      31 41  8251  8272 -0.013 35.768   21 -0.151   22 -0.173   16 -0.034   22 0.4818    8  3.990   12  0.194   23 -0.262
ROCKETS       17 55  7833  8402 -0.035 36.421   30 -0.607   30 -0.638   27 -0.511   30 0.4351   10  3.967   24 -0.402   29 -0.619

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         62 33 11186 10644  0.063 48.751    3  0.427    3  0.398    4  0.425    3 0.5419    5  4.004    1  0.728   11  0.122
PACERS        35 39  8561  8564 -0.032 36.209   17 -0.068   17 -0.090   17 -0.057   17 0.4899    4  4.007    8  0.259   25 -0.374
BULLS         31 41  7969  8033 -0.030 35.451   23 -0.172   23 -0.189   18 -0.059   23 0.4800   18  3.934   20 -0.119   13  0.002
CAVALIERS     22 50  7476  8084 -0.047 36.079   27 -0.457   27 -0.469   28 -0.568   27 0.4500   28  3.870   30 -0.947   22 -0.189
PISTONS       20 52  7676  7998 -0.040 35.764   29 -0.511   29 -0.543   26 -0.332   29 0.4434   26  3.887   27 -0.628   16 -0.036

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         51 39 10099  9959  0.058 46.699    8  0.218    8  0.196    9  0.158    8 0.5198   16  3.943   14  0.145    8  0.171
HEAT          40 36  8173  8253 -0.004 38.155   15  0.067   14  0.056   19 -0.062   14 0.5053   27  3.872   25 -0.430    7  0.306
WIZARDS       36 43  9190  9383 -0.004 39.932   18 -0.081   18 -0.098   20 -0.099   18 0.4886    1  4.046    5  0.426   30 -0.624
HORNETS       33 40  7998  8164 -0.033 36.090   20 -0.118   20 -0.135   24 -0.212   20 0.4853   21  3.929   22 -0.297   20 -0.127
MAGIC         21 51  7488  8158 -0.052 36.150   28 -0.493   28 -0.508   29 -0.626   28 0.4467   25  3.893   29 -0.892   24 -0.360

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
76ERS         56 28  9577  9085 -0.008 40.860    4  0.388    4  0.366    5  0.367    4 0.5380   23  3.924    9  0.256    5  0.477
NETS          55 29  9887  9487  0.032 42.216    5  0.382    5  0.363    6  0.338    5 0.5373    6  4.001    2  0.621   12  0.055
KNICKS        42 35  8191  8060 -0.011 37.988   12  0.100   12  0.084   11  0.115   12 0.5089   30  3.825   26 -0.480    1  0.711
CELTICS       38 40  8788  8721 -0.001 38.901   16 -0.012   16 -0.037   15  0.006   16 0.4960   15  3.949   17  0.024   15 -0.011
RAPTORS       27 45  8011  8045 -0.029 35.407   24 -0.277   24 -0.306   21 -0.099   24 0.4667   13  3.950   19 -0.079   19 -0.120

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   237 173 0.578    1  0.190
ATLANTIC DIVISION  218 177 0.552    2  0.179
NORTHWEST DIVISION 198 189 0.512    3 -0.031
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 167 208 0.445    4 -0.108
CENTRAL DIVISION   170 215 0.442    5 -0.148
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 181 209 0.464    6 -0.206

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.105 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Aug  3 19:33:18 2021
games through: Tue Jul 20 2021

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