Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          71 24 10815 10213  0.002 46.093    1  0.603    1  0.576    5  0.295    1 0.5578   14  3.948    5  0.376   11  0.214
WARRIORS      69 35 11563 10998  0.087 53.965    2  0.497    2  0.452    2  0.419    2 0.5451   20  3.905    8  0.284    4  0.554
GRIZZLIES     62 32 10830 10335  0.037 47.032    3  0.418    3  0.380    3  0.394    3 0.5399   10  3.969    1  0.583   12  0.206
HEAT          64 36 10898 10464  0.042 50.490    4  0.389    4  0.356    4  0.307    4 0.5357   27  3.868   15 -0.012    3  0.626
MAVERICKS     61 39 10772 10488  0.075 51.916    5  0.340    5  0.312    6  0.290    6 0.5319   30  3.859   18 -0.071    2  0.652
CELTICS       65 41 11697 11014  0.072 54.339    6  0.339    6  0.309    1  0.551    5 0.5323   28  3.866   10  0.224    1  0.877
BUCKS         58 36 10703 10410  0.025 47.093    7  0.295    7  0.284    8  0.203    7 0.5286    7  3.978    3  0.436   14 -0.030
76ERS         57 37 10269 10051  0.021 47.186    8  0.271    8  0.258    9  0.168    8 0.5271   21  3.898   14 -0.001    6  0.337
JAZZ          51 37  9910  9449  0.010 43.120    9  0.199    9  0.172    7  0.229    9 0.5191   16  3.933    9  0.236    9  0.221
NUGGETS       49 38  9793  9644  0.013 43.436   10  0.163   10  0.149   12  0.082   11 0.5156   13  3.954   12  0.195   15 -0.031
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       50 38  9589  9451  0.010 43.915   11  0.161   11  0.146   11  0.091   10 0.5169   24  3.890   20 -0.119    7  0.301
TIMBERWOLVES  49 40 10271 10083  0.015 44.450   12  0.133   12  0.121   10  0.135   12 0.5131    2  4.004    2  0.503   18 -0.234
BULLS         47 40  9628  9733 -0.008 43.373   13  0.091   13  0.087   21 -0.206   13 0.5090   12  3.955   19 -0.088   24 -0.324
NETS          45 42  9809  9756  0.012 43.641   14  0.052   14  0.041   15  0.053   15 0.5037    5  3.983    7  0.313   17 -0.206
HAWKS         46 43 10069  9966  0.009 44.476   15  0.049   15  0.037   13  0.080   14 0.5040    4  3.987    6  0.364   16 -0.204
CAVALIERS     43 40  8950  8809 -0.008 40.849   16  0.042   17  0.028   19 -0.013   16 0.5030   26  3.873   25 -0.307    8  0.281
HORNETS       43 40  9560  9553 -0.009 41.112   17  0.038   16  0.029   18  0.011   17 0.5026    1  4.012    4  0.423   26 -0.401
CLIPPERS      42 42  9095  9102 -0.013 41.528   18  0.006   18 -0.010   17  0.016   18 0.4992   23  3.891   23 -0.187   10  0.219
PELICANS      40 50  9839  9915  0.017 45.617   19 -0.091   19 -0.114   14  0.067   19 0.4889   18  3.920   13  0.007   13  0.128
KNICKS        37 45  8731  8741 -0.014 40.466   20 -0.103   20 -0.126   16  0.026   20 0.4866   29  3.861   26 -0.326    5  0.378
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WIZARDS       35 47  8907  9184 -0.030 40.618   21 -0.169   21 -0.182   23 -0.274   21 0.4797   17  3.928   24 -0.292   21 -0.256
SPURS         34 49  9382  9382 -0.023 40.673   22 -0.203   22 -0.226   20 -0.024   22 0.4762    9  3.976   11  0.204   20 -0.251
LAKERS        33 49  9192  9442 -0.044 40.227   23 -0.235   23 -0.255   22 -0.217   23 0.4738   11  3.968   16 -0.034   25 -0.401
KINGS         30 52  9045  9493 -0.039 40.825   24 -0.311   24 -0.333   25 -0.363   24 0.4659    6  3.978   21 -0.129   28 -0.597
TRAIL BLAZERS 27 55  8711  9439 -0.053 41.024   25 -0.403   25 -0.416   30 -0.741   25 0.4567   15  3.938   29 -0.710   29 -0.772
PACERS        25 57  9140  9425 -0.025 40.721   26 -0.444   26 -0.470   24 -0.294   26 0.4512    8  3.977   17 -0.063   27 -0.525
THUNDER       24 58  8506  9170 -0.058 40.746   27 -0.489   27 -0.514   29 -0.527   27 0.4475   25  3.876   30 -0.805   19 -0.250
PISTONS       23 58  8518  9131 -0.041 40.515   28 -0.494   28 -0.521   26 -0.382   28 0.4460   19  3.907   27 -0.505   22 -0.259
MAGIC         22 60  8547  9203 -0.040 41.050   29 -0.527   29 -0.557   27 -0.471   29 0.4425   22  3.893   28 -0.664   23 -0.277
ROCKETS       20 62  8997  9692 -0.058 40.788   30 -0.617   30 -0.649   28 -0.491   30 0.4358    3  3.996   22 -0.163   30 -0.819
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          71 24 10815 10213  0.002 46.093    1  0.603    1  0.576    5  0.295    1 0.5578   14  3.948    5  0.376   11  0.214
WARRIORS      69 35 11563 10998  0.087 53.965    2  0.497    2  0.452    2  0.419    2 0.5451   20  3.905    8  0.284    4  0.554
CLIPPERS      42 42  9095  9102 -0.013 41.528   18  0.006   18 -0.010   17  0.016   18 0.4992   23  3.891   23 -0.187   10  0.219
LAKERS        33 49  9192  9442 -0.044 40.227   23 -0.235   23 -0.255   22 -0.217   23 0.4738   11  3.968   16 -0.034   25 -0.401
KINGS         30 52  9045  9493 -0.039 40.825   24 -0.311   24 -0.333   25 -0.363   24 0.4659    6  3.978   21 -0.129   28 -0.597

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          51 37  9910  9449  0.010 43.120    9  0.199    9  0.172    7  0.229    9 0.5191   16  3.933    9  0.236    9  0.221
NUGGETS       49 38  9793  9644  0.013 43.436   10  0.163   10  0.149   12  0.082   11 0.5156   13  3.954   12  0.195   15 -0.031
TIMBERWOLVES  49 40 10271 10083  0.015 44.450   12  0.133   12  0.121   10  0.135   12 0.5131    2  4.004    2  0.503   18 -0.234
TRAIL BLAZERS 27 55  8711  9439 -0.053 41.024   25 -0.403   25 -0.416   30 -0.741   25 0.4567   15  3.938   29 -0.710   29 -0.772
THUNDER       24 58  8506  9170 -0.058 40.746   27 -0.489   27 -0.514   29 -0.527   27 0.4475   25  3.876   30 -0.805   19 -0.250

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     62 32 10830 10335  0.037 47.032    3  0.418    3  0.380    3  0.394    3 0.5399   10  3.969    1  0.583   12  0.206
MAVERICKS     61 39 10772 10488  0.075 51.916    5  0.340    5  0.312    6  0.290    6 0.5319   30  3.859   18 -0.071    2  0.652
PELICANS      40 50  9839  9915  0.017 45.617   19 -0.091   19 -0.114   14  0.067   19 0.4889   18  3.920   13  0.007   13  0.128
SPURS         34 49  9382  9382 -0.023 40.673   22 -0.203   22 -0.226   20 -0.024   22 0.4762    9  3.976   11  0.204   20 -0.251
ROCKETS       20 62  8997  9692 -0.058 40.788   30 -0.617   30 -0.649   28 -0.491   30 0.4358    3  3.996   22 -0.163   30 -0.819

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         58 36 10703 10410  0.025 47.093    7  0.295    7  0.284    8  0.203    7 0.5286    7  3.978    3  0.436   14 -0.030
BULLS         47 40  9628  9733 -0.008 43.373   13  0.091   13  0.087   21 -0.206   13 0.5090   12  3.955   19 -0.088   24 -0.324
CAVALIERS     43 40  8950  8809 -0.008 40.849   16  0.042   17  0.028   19 -0.013   16 0.5030   26  3.873   25 -0.307    8  0.281
PACERS        25 57  9140  9425 -0.025 40.721   26 -0.444   26 -0.470   24 -0.294   26 0.4512    8  3.977   17 -0.063   27 -0.525
PISTONS       23 58  8518  9131 -0.041 40.515   28 -0.494   28 -0.521   26 -0.382   28 0.4460   19  3.907   27 -0.505   22 -0.259

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          64 36 10898 10464  0.042 50.490    4  0.389    4  0.356    4  0.307    4 0.5357   27  3.868   15 -0.012    3  0.626
HAWKS         46 43 10069  9966  0.009 44.476   15  0.049   15  0.037   13  0.080   14 0.5040    4  3.987    6  0.364   16 -0.204
HORNETS       43 40  9560  9553 -0.009 41.112   17  0.038   16  0.029   18  0.011   17 0.5026    1  4.012    4  0.423   26 -0.401
WIZARDS       35 47  8907  9184 -0.030 40.618   21 -0.169   21 -0.182   23 -0.274   21 0.4797   17  3.928   24 -0.292   21 -0.256
MAGIC         22 60  8547  9203 -0.040 41.050   29 -0.527   29 -0.557   27 -0.471   29 0.4425   22  3.893   28 -0.664   23 -0.277

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 41 11697 11014  0.072 54.339    6  0.339    6  0.309    1  0.551    5 0.5323   28  3.866   10  0.224    1  0.877
76ERS         57 37 10269 10051  0.021 47.186    8  0.271    8  0.258    9  0.168    8 0.5271   21  3.898   14 -0.001    6  0.337
RAPTORS       50 38  9589  9451  0.010 43.915   11  0.161   11  0.146   11  0.091   10 0.5169   24  3.890   20 -0.119    7  0.301
NETS          45 42  9809  9756  0.012 43.641   14  0.052   14  0.041   15  0.053   15 0.5037    5  3.983    7  0.313   17 -0.206
KNICKS        37 45  8731  8741 -0.014 40.466   20 -0.103   20 -0.126   16  0.026   20 0.4866   29  3.861   26 -0.326    5  0.378

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION  254 203 0.556    1  0.175
PACIFIC DIVISION   245 202 0.548    2  0.041
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 217 232 0.483    3 -0.004
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 210 226 0.482    4 -0.096
CENTRAL DIVISION   196 231 0.459    5 -0.119
NORTHWEST DIVISION 200 228 0.467    6 -0.131

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.158 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jun 29 19:32:43 2022
games through: Thu Jun 16 2022

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