Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       68 34 11910 11308  0.036 50.409    1  0.396    1  0.381    1  0.337    1 0.5430   17  3.955    5  0.281    4  0.393
NUGGETS       69 33 11764 11325 -0.002 49.296    2  0.386    2  0.375    2  0.302    3 0.5419   18  3.953    6  0.238    5  0.367
BUCKS         59 28 10183  9911  0.007 42.478    3  0.383    3  0.374    7  0.137    2 0.5427    8  3.994    4  0.281   16 -0.008
76ERS         61 32 10576 10239  0.051 46.841    4  0.375    4  0.364    3  0.228    4 0.5412   28  3.922   14  0.004    3  0.451
CAVALIERS     52 35  9676  9262  0.016 42.454    5  0.237    5  0.209    4  0.202    5 0.5232   30  3.866   26 -0.295    1  0.700
GRIZZLIES     53 35 10215  9937 -0.012 42.336    6  0.230    6  0.205   10  0.099    6 0.5223   16  3.965   11  0.097   12  0.100
KNICKS        53 40 10615 10371  0.036 46.464    7  0.199    7  0.170    5  0.177    7 0.5189   23  3.943   12  0.062    7  0.291
HEAT          58 49 11676 11667  0.072 55.440    8  0.164    8  0.148    9  0.127    8 0.5176   29  3.878   27 -0.315    2  0.569
KINGS         51 38 10694 10492 -0.016 42.832    9  0.144    9  0.131   13  0.081    9 0.5151    2  4.039    1  0.463   22 -0.300
SUNS          51 42 10575 10430  0.017 46.028   10  0.119   10  0.110   14  0.071   10 0.5134   22  3.945   15 -0.036    9  0.178
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NETS          45 41  9665  9640  0.019 42.818   11  0.065   12  0.061   20 -0.023   12 0.5074   25  3.942   21 -0.143   13  0.098
LAKERS        52 47 11513 11422  0.015 49.043   12  0.063   11  0.061    6  0.143   11 0.5074   10  3.981    7  0.221   14  0.065
WARRIORS      50 45 11223 11077  0.006 46.620   13  0.059   13  0.055    8  0.134   13 0.5062    6  4.011    3  0.368   19 -0.100
CLIPPERS      45 42  9892  9883 -0.011 42.367   14  0.034   14  0.028   18  0.011   14 0.5027   20  3.948   18 -0.080   11  0.101
HAWKS         44 45 10522 10519  0.027 44.621   15  0.016   15  0.006   16  0.039   15 0.5008    3  4.038    2  0.417   24 -0.338
PELICANS      42 41  9496  9346 -0.022 39.810   16  0.004   16 -0.011   15  0.056   17 0.4986   24  3.943   16 -0.061   10  0.173
RAPTORS       41 42  9359  9242  0.004 40.680   17  0.003   17 -0.012   11  0.093   18 0.4981   26  3.934   17 -0.068    8  0.253
TIMBERWOLVES  44 45 10243 10271 -0.003 43.716   18 -0.005   18 -0.021   19 -0.000   16 0.4988   11  3.974   13  0.041   18 -0.042
BULLS         41 43  9476  9377  0.008 41.307   19 -0.006   19 -0.023   12  0.084   19 0.4971   27  3.925   20 -0.124    6  0.292
THUNDER       41 43  9851  9782 -0.008 40.882   20 -0.016   20 -0.034   17  0.018   20 0.4956    7  4.005    8  0.220   21 -0.184
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     38 44  9366  9360 -0.026 39.494   21 -0.086   21 -0.103   21 -0.064   21 0.4885   19  3.950   22 -0.146   15  0.019
JAZZ          37 45  9600  9677 -0.022 39.773   22 -0.113   22 -0.125   24 -0.127   22 0.4863    5  4.019   10  0.150   25 -0.405
WIZARDS       35 47  9279  9378 -0.005 40.338   23 -0.148   24 -0.157   22 -0.107   23 0.4820   14  3.967   19 -0.102   20 -0.112
PACERS        35 47  9535  9796 -0.006 40.619   24 -0.151   23 -0.154   25 -0.201   24 0.4819    1  4.040    9  0.189   29 -0.591
MAGIC         34 48  9136  9346 -0.010 40.392   25 -0.178   25 -0.182   23 -0.111   25 0.4783   21  3.946   23 -0.214   17 -0.008
TRAIL BLAZERS 33 49  9299  9628 -0.027 40.166   26 -0.213   26 -0.217   27 -0.359   26 0.4744    9  3.988   25 -0.242   27 -0.476
HORNETS       27 55  9098  9610 -0.016 40.828   27 -0.345   27 -0.360   26 -0.327   27 0.4577   15  3.965   28 -0.328   23 -0.325
ROCKETS       22 60  9081  9725 -0.031 40.517   28 -0.494   28 -0.512   28 -0.396   28 0.4424   12  3.973   29 -0.358   26 -0.434
SPURS         22 60  9269 10092 -0.041 40.413   29 -0.501   29 -0.514   30 -0.508   29 0.4415    4  4.022   24 -0.217   30 -0.799
PISTONS       17 65  9045  9719 -0.015 41.090   30 -0.621   30 -0.641   29 -0.455   30 0.4290   13  3.970   30 -0.431   28 -0.479
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         51 38 10694 10492 -0.016 42.832    9  0.144    9  0.131   13  0.081    9 0.5151    2  4.039    1  0.463   22 -0.300
SUNS          51 42 10575 10430  0.017 46.028   10  0.119   10  0.110   14  0.071   10 0.5134   22  3.945   15 -0.036    9  0.178
LAKERS        52 47 11513 11422  0.015 49.043   12  0.063   11  0.061    6  0.143   11 0.5074   10  3.981    7  0.221   14  0.065
WARRIORS      50 45 11223 11077  0.006 46.620   13  0.059   13  0.055    8  0.134   13 0.5062    6  4.011    3  0.368   19 -0.100
CLIPPERS      45 42  9892  9883 -0.011 42.367   14  0.034   14  0.028   18  0.011   14 0.5027   20  3.948   18 -0.080   11  0.101

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       69 33 11764 11325 -0.002 49.296    2  0.386    2  0.375    2  0.302    3 0.5419   18  3.953    6  0.238    5  0.367
TIMBERWOLVES  44 45 10243 10271 -0.003 43.716   18 -0.005   18 -0.021   19 -0.000   16 0.4988   11  3.974   13  0.041   18 -0.042
THUNDER       41 43  9851  9782 -0.008 40.882   20 -0.016   20 -0.034   17  0.018   20 0.4956    7  4.005    8  0.220   21 -0.184
JAZZ          37 45  9600  9677 -0.022 39.773   22 -0.113   22 -0.125   24 -0.127   22 0.4863    5  4.019   10  0.150   25 -0.405
TRAIL BLAZERS 33 49  9299  9628 -0.027 40.166   26 -0.213   26 -0.217   27 -0.359   26 0.4744    9  3.988   25 -0.242   27 -0.476

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     53 35 10215  9937 -0.012 42.336    6  0.230    6  0.205   10  0.099    6 0.5223   16  3.965   11  0.097   12  0.100
PELICANS      42 41  9496  9346 -0.022 39.810   16  0.004   16 -0.011   15  0.056   17 0.4986   24  3.943   16 -0.061   10  0.173
MAVERICKS     38 44  9366  9360 -0.026 39.494   21 -0.086   21 -0.103   21 -0.064   21 0.4885   19  3.950   22 -0.146   15  0.019
ROCKETS       22 60  9081  9725 -0.031 40.517   28 -0.494   28 -0.512   28 -0.396   28 0.4424   12  3.973   29 -0.358   26 -0.434
SPURS         22 60  9269 10092 -0.041 40.413   29 -0.501   29 -0.514   30 -0.508   29 0.4415    4  4.022   24 -0.217   30 -0.799

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         59 28 10183  9911  0.007 42.478    3  0.383    3  0.374    7  0.137    2 0.5427    8  3.994    4  0.281   16 -0.008
CAVALIERS     52 35  9676  9262  0.016 42.454    5  0.237    5  0.209    4  0.202    5 0.5232   30  3.866   26 -0.295    1  0.700
BULLS         41 43  9476  9377  0.008 41.307   19 -0.006   19 -0.023   12  0.084   19 0.4971   27  3.925   20 -0.124    6  0.292
PACERS        35 47  9535  9796 -0.006 40.619   24 -0.151   23 -0.154   25 -0.201   24 0.4819    1  4.040    9  0.189   29 -0.591
PISTONS       17 65  9045  9719 -0.015 41.090   30 -0.621   30 -0.641   29 -0.455   30 0.4290   13  3.970   30 -0.431   28 -0.479

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          58 49 11676 11667  0.072 55.440    8  0.164    8  0.148    9  0.127    8 0.5176   29  3.878   27 -0.315    2  0.569
HAWKS         44 45 10522 10519  0.027 44.621   15  0.016   15  0.006   16  0.039   15 0.5008    3  4.038    2  0.417   24 -0.338
WIZARDS       35 47  9279  9378 -0.005 40.338   23 -0.148   24 -0.157   22 -0.107   23 0.4820   14  3.967   19 -0.102   20 -0.112
MAGIC         34 48  9136  9346 -0.010 40.392   25 -0.178   25 -0.182   23 -0.111   25 0.4783   21  3.946   23 -0.214   17 -0.008
HORNETS       27 55  9098  9610 -0.016 40.828   27 -0.345   27 -0.360   26 -0.327   27 0.4577   15  3.965   28 -0.328   23 -0.325

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       68 34 11910 11308  0.036 50.409    1  0.396    1  0.381    1  0.337    1 0.5430   17  3.955    5  0.281    4  0.393
76ERS         61 32 10576 10239  0.051 46.841    4  0.375    4  0.364    3  0.228    4 0.5412   28  3.922   14  0.004    3  0.451
KNICKS        53 40 10615 10371  0.036 46.464    7  0.199    7  0.170    5  0.177    7 0.5189   23  3.943   12  0.062    7  0.291
NETS          45 41  9665  9640  0.019 42.818   11  0.065   12  0.061   20 -0.023   12 0.5074   25  3.942   21 -0.143   13  0.098
RAPTORS       41 42  9359  9242  0.004 40.680   17  0.003   17 -0.012   11  0.093   18 0.4981   26  3.934   17 -0.068    8  0.253

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION  268 189 0.586    1  0.231
PACIFIC DIVISION   249 214 0.538    2  0.088
NORTHWEST DIVISION 224 215 0.510    3 -0.020
CENTRAL DIVISION   204 218 0.483    4 -0.029
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 198 244 0.448    5 -0.134
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 177 240 0.424    6 -0.212

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.207 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jun 17 07:54:19 2023
games through: Mon Jun 12 2023

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