Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       80 21 11954 10871  0.035 48.815    1  0.820    1  0.762    1  0.681    1 0.5700   18  3.942    3  0.585    2  0.777
THUNDER       63 29 10904 10233  0.061 45.788    2  0.518    3  0.485    2  0.492    2 0.5480   12  3.981    2  0.594    7  0.390
NUGGETS       64 30 10644 10238  0.054 47.185    3  0.513    2  0.490    6  0.274    3 0.5473   23  3.927   11  0.104    6  0.444
TIMBERWOLVES  65 33 10984 10388  0.070 49.310    4  0.486    4  0.437    3  0.416    4 0.5453   28  3.879   17  0.003    1  0.829
MAVERICKS     63 41 11995 11757  0.120 55.150    5  0.371    5  0.354    4  0.375    5 0.5350   11  3.984    4  0.495   10  0.255
CLIPPERS      53 35 10083  9854  0.030 43.792    6  0.284    6  0.265   17  0.067    6 0.5274   15  3.963   12  0.076   15  0.057
KNICKS        57 38 10678 10329  0.021 46.636    7  0.275    7  0.254    7  0.213    7 0.5230   25  3.903   18 -0.078    4  0.505
PELICANS      50 38 10005  9703  0.043 44.032    8  0.213    9  0.185    9  0.185    9 0.5192   19  3.938   14  0.068    9  0.302
LAKERS        50 39 10444 10388  0.044 45.221    9  0.207    8  0.189   13  0.113    8 0.5193    5  4.017    5  0.407   20 -0.180
SUNS          49 37  9945  9754  0.027 42.763   10  0.201   10  0.178   10  0.177   10 0.5184   13  3.980   10  0.276   12  0.079
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         51 37 10417 10219 -0.005 42.762   11  0.196   11  0.174   15  0.085   12 0.5166    6  4.015    7  0.364   21 -0.195
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.043 42.335   12  0.189   12  0.167    8  0.203   11 0.5176   10  3.985    8  0.327   13  0.078
CAVALIERS     53 41 10413 10282  0.016 46.539   13  0.182   13  0.160   19  0.023   13 0.5149   24  3.903   22 -0.269    8  0.314
PACERS        55 45 12155 11901  0.050 50.440   14  0.170   14  0.144    5  0.276   14 0.5144    1  4.081    1  0.910   23 -0.359
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.016 40.946   15  0.158   15  0.136   11  0.165   15 0.5141    7  4.002    6  0.379   17 -0.049
76ERS         50 39 10151  9901 -0.018 42.632   16  0.143   16  0.122   14  0.091   16 0.5107   17  3.948   15  0.028   11  0.155
MAGIC         50 39  9760  9563 -0.031 42.336   17  0.134   17  0.117   12  0.123   17 0.5104   30  3.875   23 -0.306    3  0.551
HEAT          48 41  9709  9623 -0.012 43.292   18  0.092   18  0.079   16  0.076   18 0.5068   29  3.877   24 -0.347    5  0.498
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283 -0.001 40.177   19  0.014   19 -0.005   18  0.049   19 0.4998   16  3.956   16  0.022   14  0.077
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.057 40.086   20 -0.085   20 -0.104   20 -0.121   20 0.4886   20  3.932   21 -0.265   16  0.024
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.052 39.952   21 -0.183   21 -0.196   21 -0.205   21 0.4793    2  4.058    9  0.307   27 -0.718
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885 -0.002 41.533   22 -0.265   22 -0.284   24 -0.333   22 0.4727    4  4.038   13  0.071   29 -0.737
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.055 39.564   23 -0.286   23 -0.309   23 -0.284   23 0.4687   22  3.928   26 -0.453   19 -0.115
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.037 40.957   24 -0.405   24 -0.417   25 -0.490   24 0.4586   27  3.885   29 -0.872   18 -0.108
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.072 39.833   25 -0.496   25 -0.517   26 -0.564   25 0.4483    8  3.994   25 -0.395   28 -0.733
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724 -0.011 41.550   26 -0.535   26 -0.560   22 -0.282   26 0.4459    9  3.989   20 -0.138   24 -0.426
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.026 41.691   27 -0.592   27 -0.612   29 -0.582   27 0.4429   26  3.901   30 -0.885   22 -0.279
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.083 40.145   28 -0.623   28 -0.640   30 -0.638   28 0.4366   21  3.929   28 -0.798   25 -0.479
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.091 39.815   29 -0.837   29 -0.883   27 -0.569   29 0.4183    3  4.051   19 -0.096   30 -1.042
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.082 40.116   30 -0.861   30 -0.911   28 -0.574   30 0.4162   14  3.978   27 -0.483   26 -0.664
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      53 35 10083  9854  0.030 43.792    6  0.284    6  0.265   17  0.067    6 0.5274   15  3.963   12  0.076   15  0.057
LAKERS        50 39 10444 10388  0.044 45.221    9  0.207    8  0.189   13  0.113    8 0.5193    5  4.017    5  0.407   20 -0.180
SUNS          49 37  9945  9754  0.027 42.763   10  0.201   10  0.178   10  0.177   10 0.5184   13  3.980   10  0.276   12  0.079
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.043 42.335   12  0.189   12  0.167    8  0.203   11 0.5176   10  3.985    8  0.327   13  0.078
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.016 40.946   15  0.158   15  0.136   11  0.165   15 0.5141    7  4.002    6  0.379   17 -0.049

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       63 29 10904 10233  0.061 45.788    2  0.518    3  0.485    2  0.492    2 0.5480   12  3.981    2  0.594    7  0.390
NUGGETS       64 30 10644 10238  0.054 47.185    3  0.513    2  0.490    6  0.274    3 0.5473   23  3.927   11  0.104    6  0.444
TIMBERWOLVES  65 33 10984 10388  0.070 49.310    4  0.486    4  0.437    3  0.416    4 0.5453   28  3.879   17  0.003    1  0.829
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885 -0.002 41.533   22 -0.265   22 -0.284   24 -0.333   22 0.4727    4  4.038   13  0.071   29 -0.737
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.026 41.691   27 -0.592   27 -0.612   29 -0.582   27 0.4429   26  3.901   30 -0.885   22 -0.279

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     63 41 11995 11757  0.120 55.150    5  0.371    5  0.354    4  0.375    5 0.5350   11  3.984    4  0.495   10  0.255
PELICANS      50 38 10005  9703  0.043 44.032    8  0.213    9  0.185    9  0.185    9 0.5192   19  3.938   14  0.068    9  0.302
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283 -0.001 40.177   19  0.014   19 -0.005   18  0.049   19 0.4998   16  3.956   16  0.022   14  0.077
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.037 40.957   24 -0.405   24 -0.417   25 -0.490   24 0.4586   27  3.885   29 -0.872   18 -0.108
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724 -0.011 41.550   26 -0.535   26 -0.560   22 -0.282   26 0.4459    9  3.989   20 -0.138   24 -0.426

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         51 37 10417 10219 -0.005 42.762   11  0.196   11  0.174   15  0.085   12 0.5166    6  4.015    7  0.364   21 -0.195
CAVALIERS     53 41 10413 10282  0.016 46.539   13  0.182   13  0.160   19  0.023   13 0.5149   24  3.903   22 -0.269    8  0.314
PACERS        55 45 12155 11901  0.050 50.440   14  0.170   14  0.144    5  0.276   14 0.5144    1  4.081    1  0.910   23 -0.359
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.057 40.086   20 -0.085   20 -0.104   20 -0.121   20 0.4886   20  3.932   21 -0.265   16  0.024
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.082 40.116   30 -0.861   30 -0.911   28 -0.574   30 0.4162   14  3.978   27 -0.483   26 -0.664

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         50 39  9760  9563 -0.031 42.336   17  0.134   17  0.117   12  0.123   17 0.5104   30  3.875   23 -0.306    3  0.551
HEAT          48 41  9709  9623 -0.012 43.292   18  0.092   18  0.079   16  0.076   18 0.5068   29  3.877   24 -0.347    5  0.498
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.052 39.952   21 -0.183   21 -0.196   21 -0.205   21 0.4793    2  4.058    9  0.307   27 -0.718
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.083 40.145   28 -0.623   28 -0.640   30 -0.638   28 0.4366   21  3.929   28 -0.798   25 -0.479
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.091 39.815   29 -0.837   29 -0.883   27 -0.569   29 0.4183    3  4.051   19 -0.096   30 -1.042

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       80 21 11954 10871  0.035 48.815    1  0.820    1  0.762    1  0.681    1 0.5700   18  3.942    3  0.585    2  0.777
KNICKS        57 38 10678 10329  0.021 46.636    7  0.275    7  0.254    7  0.213    7 0.5230   25  3.903   18 -0.078    4  0.505
76ERS         50 39 10151  9901 -0.018 42.632   16  0.143   16  0.122   14  0.091   16 0.5107   17  3.948   15  0.028   11  0.155
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.055 39.564   23 -0.286   23 -0.309   23 -0.284   23 0.4687   22  3.928   26 -0.453   19 -0.115
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.072 39.833   25 -0.496   25 -0.517   26 -0.564   25 0.4483    8  3.994   25 -0.395   28 -0.733

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   245 185 0.570    1  0.164
NORTHWEST DIVISION 244 204 0.545    2  0.093
ATLANTIC DIVISION  244 205 0.543    3  0.091
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 203 235 0.463    4 -0.076
CENTRAL DIVISION   213 235 0.475    5 -0.077
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 170 255 0.400    6 -0.315

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.185 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Oct  9 16:26:47 2024
games through: Mon Jun 17 2024

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