Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST LOUIS      16  3 594 334  0.130  9.733    1  0.587    1  0.572    1  0.527    1 0.6194    3  1.451    1  0.934   11  0.120
CHICAGO       13  4 357 236  0.028  8.476    2  0.418    2  0.395    5  0.298    2 0.5797   30  0.889   13 -0.009    2  0.605
PITTSBURGH    14  4 396 246 -0.029  8.644    3  0.415    3  0.389    3  0.335    3 0.5791   27  0.939    9  0.083    3  0.586
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 431 319 -0.010  9.351    4  0.381    4  0.355    6  0.274    4 0.5784   23  1.029    8  0.127    5  0.422
GREEN BAY     13  5 432 326  0.045  9.078    5  0.361    5  0.335    7  0.232    5 0.5668    9  1.248    5  0.359   14  0.106
PHILADELPHIA  13  6 431 265  0.118  9.933    6  0.336    6  0.310    2  0.400    7 0.5599   26  0.964    7  0.177    1  0.622
SAN FRANCISCO 12  5 424 307  0.042  8.321    7  0.322    7  0.298    4  0.323    6 0.5655   14  1.179    4  0.360    6  0.287
BALTIMORE     11  7 333 295  0.112  9.845    8  0.244    8  0.218    8  0.178    9 0.5492   29  0.934   18 -0.080    4  0.435
MIAMI         11  6 347 310 -0.035  8.460    9  0.211    9  0.197   13 -0.008    8 0.5536   25  0.983   25 -0.210    9  0.193
OAKLAND       11  7 450 367 -0.024  8.900   10  0.157   10  0.135    9  0.129   11 0.5268    5  1.362    3  0.411   21 -0.152
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY JETS       10  7 332 333  0.006  8.745   11  0.126   11  0.116   12  0.006   10 0.5380   20  1.059   19 -0.106   12  0.118
TAMPA BAY      9  8 333 311  0.127  9.446   12  0.119   12  0.111   10  0.072   12 0.5226   21  1.047   15 -0.054    8  0.197
SEATTLE        9  7 301 324 -0.057  8.014   13  0.068   13  0.055   17 -0.074   13 0.4981   17  1.116   21 -0.117   17 -0.032
DENVER         8  8 340 339 -0.056  7.929   14 -0.013   14 -0.042   16 -0.070   14 0.4876    8  1.253   10  0.063   22 -0.203
WASHINGTON     8  8 256 303 -0.096  7.902   15 -0.017   15 -0.044   14 -0.042   18 0.4811   28  0.939   28 -0.294    7  0.210
CLEVELAND      7  9 285 319  0.070  8.774   16 -0.033   16 -0.060   19 -0.077   15 0.4875   18  1.100   22 -0.140   16 -0.015
TENNESSEE      7  9 336 388  0.039  8.668   17 -0.053   17 -0.072   18 -0.075   17 0.4856    2  1.461    6  0.347   29 -0.497
ATLANTA        7  9 291 377 -0.050  8.383   18 -0.080   18 -0.100   25 -0.242   16 0.4869   15  1.127   26 -0.271   23 -0.213
NY GIANTS      7  9 294 321 -0.045  8.054   19 -0.104   20 -0.128   21 -0.089   21 0.4742   19  1.088   24 -0.166   15 -0.012
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 333 409 -0.099  8.011   20 -0.111   19 -0.121   28 -0.292   19 0.4800    4  1.373   11  0.004   30 -0.589
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CINCINNATI     6 10 226 309  0.076  9.054   21 -0.123   21 -0.133   24 -0.224   22 0.4687   31  0.864   31 -0.558   13  0.110
ARIZONA        7  9 295 343 -0.138  7.685   22 -0.137   22 -0.150   22 -0.143   24 0.4549   11  1.214   16 -0.062   24 -0.225
KANSAS CITY    6 10 320 344  0.010  8.446   23 -0.168   23 -0.183   15 -0.066   25 0.4522   12  1.204   12  0.003   19 -0.135
INDIANAPOLIS   6 10 413 486 -0.008  8.469   24 -0.169   24 -0.187   23 -0.153   20 0.4782    1  1.755    2  0.726   31 -1.031
JACKSONVILLE   6 10 294 286  0.016  8.293   25 -0.178   25 -0.199   11  0.029   23 0.4636   22  1.036   20 -0.110   10  0.168
MINNESOTA      5 11 290 390  0.013  8.827   26 -0.262   26 -0.263   26 -0.246   26 0.4432    6  1.284   17 -0.072   26 -0.420
DALLAS         5 11 246 338 -0.082  8.063   27 -0.310   27 -0.314   27 -0.246   27 0.4278   24  0.999   29 -0.429   18 -0.063
SAN DIEGO      5 11 332 321 -0.087  7.701   28 -0.316   28 -0.346   20 -0.084   28 0.4245   13  1.198   14 -0.022   20 -0.145
BUFFALO        3 13 265 420 -0.095  8.252   29 -0.479   29 -0.494   30 -0.368   29 0.4061   10  1.217   27 -0.282   27 -0.453
DETROIT        2 14 270 424  0.023  9.061   30 -0.530   30 -0.551   29 -0.310   30 0.3943    7  1.271   23 -0.154   28 -0.466
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       1 15 253 410 -0.081  8.404   31 -0.664   31 -0.702   31 -0.411   31 0.3742   16  1.121   30 -0.447   25 -0.374

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND       11  7 450 367 -0.024  8.900   10  0.157   10  0.135    9  0.129   11 0.5268    5  1.362    3  0.411   21 -0.152
SEATTLE        9  7 301 324 -0.057  8.014   13  0.068   13  0.055   17 -0.074   13 0.4981   17  1.116   21 -0.117   17 -0.032
DENVER         8  8 340 339 -0.056  7.929   14 -0.013   14 -0.042   16 -0.070   14 0.4876    8  1.253   10  0.063   22 -0.203
KANSAS CITY    6 10 320 344  0.010  8.446   23 -0.168   23 -0.183   15 -0.066   25 0.4522   12  1.204   12  0.003   19 -0.135
SAN DIEGO      5 11 332 321 -0.087  7.701   28 -0.316   28 -0.346   20 -0.084   28 0.4245   13  1.198   14 -0.022   20 -0.145

AFC CENTRAL
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    14  4 396 246 -0.029  8.644    3  0.415    3  0.389    3  0.335    3 0.5791   27  0.939    9  0.083    3  0.586
BALTIMORE     11  7 333 295  0.112  9.845    8  0.244    8  0.218    8  0.178    9 0.5492   29  0.934   18 -0.080    4  0.435
CLEVELAND      7  9 285 319  0.070  8.774   16 -0.033   16 -0.060   19 -0.077   15 0.4875   18  1.100   22 -0.140   16 -0.015
TENNESSEE      7  9 336 388  0.039  8.668   17 -0.053   17 -0.072   18 -0.075   17 0.4856    2  1.461    6  0.347   29 -0.497
CINCINNATI     6 10 226 309  0.076  9.054   21 -0.123   21 -0.133   24 -0.224   22 0.4687   31  0.864   31 -0.558   13  0.110
JACKSONVILLE   6 10 294 286  0.016  8.293   25 -0.178   25 -0.199   11  0.029   23 0.4636   22  1.036   20 -0.110   10  0.168

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 431 319 -0.010  9.351    4  0.381    4  0.355    6  0.274    4 0.5784   23  1.029    8  0.127    5  0.422
MIAMI         11  6 347 310 -0.035  8.460    9  0.211    9  0.197   13 -0.008    8 0.5536   25  0.983   25 -0.210    9  0.193
NY JETS       10  7 332 333  0.006  8.745   11  0.126   11  0.116   12  0.006   10 0.5380   20  1.059   19 -0.106   12  0.118
INDIANAPOLIS   6 10 413 486 -0.008  8.469   24 -0.169   24 -0.187   23 -0.153   20 0.4782    1  1.755    2  0.726   31 -1.031
BUFFALO        3 13 265 420 -0.095  8.252   29 -0.479   29 -0.494   30 -0.368   29 0.4061   10  1.217   27 -0.282   27 -0.453

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST LOUIS      16  3 594 334  0.130  9.733    1  0.587    1  0.572    1  0.527    1 0.6194    3  1.451    1  0.934   11  0.120
SAN FRANCISCO 12  5 424 307  0.042  8.321    7  0.322    7  0.298    4  0.323    6 0.5655   14  1.179    4  0.360    6  0.287
ATLANTA        7  9 291 377 -0.050  8.383   18 -0.080   18 -0.100   25 -0.242   16 0.4869   15  1.127   26 -0.271   23 -0.213
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 333 409 -0.099  8.011   20 -0.111   19 -0.121   28 -0.292   19 0.4800    4  1.373   11  0.004   30 -0.589
CAROLINA       1 15 253 410 -0.081  8.404   31 -0.664   31 -0.702   31 -0.411   31 0.3742   16  1.121   30 -0.447   25 -0.374

NFC CENTRAL
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       13  4 357 236  0.028  8.476    2  0.418    2  0.395    5  0.298    2 0.5797   30  0.889   13 -0.009    2  0.605
GREEN BAY     13  5 432 326  0.045  9.078    5  0.361    5  0.335    7  0.232    5 0.5668    9  1.248    5  0.359   14  0.106
TAMPA BAY      9  8 333 311  0.127  9.446   12  0.119   12  0.111   10  0.072   12 0.5226   21  1.047   15 -0.054    8  0.197
MINNESOTA      5 11 290 390  0.013  8.827   26 -0.262   26 -0.263   26 -0.246   26 0.4432    6  1.284   17 -0.072   26 -0.420
DETROIT        2 14 270 424  0.023  9.061   30 -0.530   30 -0.551   29 -0.310   30 0.3943    7  1.271   23 -0.154   28 -0.466

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  13  6 431 265  0.118  9.933    6  0.336    6  0.310    2  0.400    7 0.5599   26  0.964    7  0.177    1  0.622
WASHINGTON     8  8 256 303 -0.096  7.902   15 -0.017   15 -0.044   14 -0.042   18 0.4811   28  0.939   28 -0.294    7  0.210
NY GIANTS      7  9 294 321 -0.045  8.054   19 -0.104   20 -0.128   21 -0.089   21 0.4742   19  1.088   24 -0.166   15 -0.012
ARIZONA        7  9 295 343 -0.138  7.685   22 -0.137   22 -0.150   22 -0.143   24 0.4549   11  1.214   16 -0.062   24 -0.225
DALLAS         5 11 246 338 -0.082  8.063   27 -0.310   27 -0.314   27 -0.246   27 0.4278   24  0.999   29 -0.429   18 -0.063

DIVISION     W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC CENTRAL 51 49 0.510    1  0.058
NFC CENTRAL 42 42 0.500    2  0.040
NFC WEST    43 41 0.512    3 -0.009
AFC WEST    39 43 0.476    4 -0.023
AFC EAST    44 41 0.518    5 -0.112
NFC EAST    40 43 0.482    6 -0.126

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.157 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.019 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:43:56 2020
games through: Sat Feb  9 2002

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